A Note on Robocalls Part II

8/2/2019 A Note on Robocalls Part II

1/24

A Note on Robocalls in the 2011 Federal Election, Part II

Contents

Summary ..................................................................................................................................................2

Riding Selection Algorithm .....................................................................................................................3Algorithmic Selection of Non-Robocall Ridings ....................................................................................4

Manitoba ..............................................................................................................................................4

Riding #1: Saint Boniface ...............................................................................................................4

Riding #2: Winnipeg South Centre .................................................................................................5 Northern Ontario .................................................................................................................................6

Riding #3: Sudbury .........................................................................................................................6

Nova Scotia ..........................................................................................................................................7Riding #4: SydneyVictoria ............................................................................................................7

PEI .......................................................................................................................................................8

Riding #5: Egmont ..........................................................................................................................8Ontario (2011 version) ........................................................................................................................9

Ridings #6-23: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario .........................................................................10Ridings #24-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario .......................................................................11Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario ......................................................................11

Ontario (2008 version) ......................................................................................................................12

Ridings #6-18: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario .........................................................................13

Ridings #19-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario .......................................................................14Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario ......................................................................15

Regression Results .................................................................................................................................16

Appendix ................................................................................................................................................19Table 1: Original 27 Ridings (Robocalls) .........................................................................................19

Table 2: Another 25 Robocall Ridings (from Extended List) ......................................................20

Table 3A: All Remaining Ridings in Manitoba 21


2/24

Table 3A: All Remaining Ridings in Manitoba 21

Summary

This note briefly outlines an algorithm that can be used to select an alternative set of non-robocallridings for the model estimated in myprevious note (an exercise suggested by Prof. Mike Moffatt).To ensure the algorithm is as simple and clear as possible, it relies only on:

1. Geography (in a broad sense, i.e., whether the riding is in the same province/region; notproximity/adjacency, which is potentially more subjective/intuitive); and,

2. Political history (i.e., a comparison of winning parties and margins of victory, in either 2008

or 2011).

I selected two new sets of non-robocall ridings algorithmically, first using 2011 election results, then

2008 results (as suggested by Prof. Moffatt).1 The former (2011) yields a set of 27 non-robocallridings that includes 9 new ridings (that were not included in my original regression), while the latter

(2008) yields a set that includes 13 new ridings.

As such, following the algorithm has changed between one third and one half of my non-robocallriding control group. This was to be expected, as it does not take into account riding demographics

or geography/proximity at the micro level, as I did when I started this exercise.

However, these changes do not affect the results of the experiment. In fact, the coefficient for the

non-robocall interaction variable is (once again) greater than the one for the robocall interaction

variable (see Table 7-4), provided ridings are selected based on their similarities in terms of the 2008election results (again, as suggested by Prof. Moffatt). And once again, this is in spite of the fact

that, via the algorithm, I have replaced half of the non-robocall ridings in the control group with

other, similar ridings.

Given the selection method, these new ridings are similar in terms of political history (i.e., 2008

election winner and margin of victory) and region (i.e., the same province, or northern/southern

i f O t i ) t th 27 idi l t d b P f K l b f b ll ll ti
http://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/85789442/A-Note-on-Robocallshttps://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181413760228016129https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688http://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/85789442/A-Note-on-Robocallshttps://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181413760228016129https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688


3/24

Riding Selection Algorithm

Firstly, from the list of 308 federal ridings in Canada, eliminate all ridings that:

a. Are in provinces that are not included in the original list of 27 ridings, including all ridings

in Quebec (75), British Columbia (36), Alberta (28), Saskatchewan (14), New Brunswick

(10), Newfoundland and Labrador (7), and the North (3).(This eliminates 173 ridings; 135 remain.)

b. Are included in either the original list of 27 ridings, or the extended list of 72 ridings

where reports of robocalls later emerged (76 ridings total, including 40 in SouthernOntario, 4 in Manitoba, 4 in Northern Ontario, 3 in Nova Scotia, and 1 in PEI).

(This eliminates 52 additional ridings2; 83 remain.)

c. Have an atypical political history. There are five of these; in addition to the two Prof.

Kessler identified,

Portneuf-Jacques Cartier (no CPC candidate; supported Andr Arthur); and,

Saanich Gulf-Islands, BC (robocall reports in 2008)

Also eliminate:

Central Nova, NS (no LPC candidate in 2008; supported Elizabeth May);

CumberlandColchesterMusquodoboit Valley, NS (independent Conservative

candidate Bill Casey in 2008);

Simcoe Grey, ON (independent Conservative candidate Helena Guergis in

2011).

(This eliminates 2 additional ridings3

; 81 remain.)

For each of the 27 original (robocall) ridings in Prof. Kesslers working paper,
http://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdf


4/24

Algorithmic Selection of Non-Robocall Ridings

Manitoba

Riding #1: Saint Boniface

In 2011, the closest margin of victory for the CPC is in KildonanSt. Paul.6

Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Saint Boniface CPC CPC 19.5 LPC

Other RidingsDifference from

Saint Boniface

Kildonan--St. Paul CPC CPC 28.1 8.6 NDP

Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette CPC CPC 37 17.5 NDP

Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia CPC CPC 37.5 18 NDP

Elmwood--Transcona NDP CPC 0.9 18.6 NDP

Brandon--Souris CPC CPC 38.5 19 NDP

Selkirk--Interlake CPC CPC 38.7 19.2 NDP

Provencher CPC CPC 52.7 33.2 NDPPortage--Lisgar CPC CPC 66.2 46.7 NDP

Winnipeg North LPC LPC 0.2 NDP

Churchill NDP NDP 24.9 CPC

2011 Election Results

The choice is the same for the 2008 results:


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Saint Boniface LPC CPC 11.2 LPC

Other RidingsDifference from

Saint Boniface



5/24


6/24

Northern Ontario

Riding #3: Sudbury

In 2011, the closest margin of victory for the NDP is in Thunder BayRainy River (though note that

AlgomaManitoulinKapuskasing is very close as well, and would also be a good candidate):


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Sudbury NDP NDP 21.6 CPC

Other Ridings

Difference

from

Sudbury

Thunder Bay--Rainy River NDP NDP 21.5 0.1 CPC

Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing NDP NDP 21.4 0.2 CPC

Timmins--James Bay NDP NDP 18.7 2.9 CPC

Nickel Belt NDP NDP 27 5.4 CPC

Kenora CPC CPC 19.1 NDP

Parry Sound--Muskoka CPC CPC 31.5 NDP


The choice is the same for the 2008 results:


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Sudbury LPC NDP 5.0 LPC

Other Ridings

Difference

fromSudbury

Thunder Bay--Rainy River LPC NDP 8.1 3.1 LPC

Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing LPC NDP 13.0 8.0 LPC



7/24

Nova Scotia

Riding #4: SydneyVictoria

In 2011, the closest margin of victory for the LPC is in KingsHants:


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Sydney--Victoria LPC LPC 2.1 CPC

Other Ridings

Difference

from Sydney--

Victoria

Kings--Hants LPC LPC 3 0.9 CPC

Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest LPC LPC 5.4 3.3 CPC

Cape Breton--Canso LPC LPC 15.8 13.7 CPC

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LPC NDP 1.2 LPC

Halifax NDP NDP 26 LPC

Sackville--Eastern Shore NDP NDP 23.6 CPC

South Shore--St. Margaret's CPC CPC 7 NDPWest Nova/Nova-Ouest CPC CPC 10.6 LPC


In 2008, the closest margin of victory for the LPC was in Cape BretonCanso:


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Sydney--Victoria LPC LPC 25.0 NDP

Other Ridings

Difference

from S dne



8/24

PEI

Riding #5: Egmont

Since the Conservative Party did not win any other riding in PEI in either 2008 or 2011, select the

riding with the lowest margin of victory for the LPC. In both cases, that is Malpeque:


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

PlaceEgmont CPC CPC 23.3 LPC

Other Ridings

Malpeque LPC LPC 3.3 CPC

Charlottetown None LPC 6.8 CPC

Cardigan LPC LPC 11.2 CPC



Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Egmont None CPC 0.3 LPC

Other Ridings

Malpeque LPC LPC 4.9 CPC

Charlottetown LPC LPC 18.0 CPC

Cardigan LPC LPC 23.2 CPC



9/24

Ontario (2011 version)

We need to pick 22 ridings from the 56 remaining in Southern Ontario (see Appendix, Table 3E), toreplace the following:

Riding IncumbentWinning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

6 Cambridge CPC CPC 25.7 NDP

7 Eglinton--Lawrence LPC CPC 8.4 LPC

8 Etobicoke Centre LPC CPC 0 LPC9 Guelph LPC LPC 10.6 CPC

10 Haldimand--Norfolk CPC CPC 26 LPC

11 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 9 CPC

12 Kitchener--Conestoga CPC CPC 32.3 NDP

13 Kitchener--Waterloo CPC CPC 3.3 LPC

14 London North Centre LPC CPC 3.2 LPC

15 London West CPC CPC 17.7 LPC

16 Mississauga East--Cooksville None CPC 1.5 LPC

17 Niagara Falls CPC CPC 29.8 NDP

18 Oakville CPC CPC 20.9 LPC

19 Ottawa West--Nepean CPC CPC 13.2 LPC

20 Ottawa--Orlans CPC CPC 6.2 LPC

21 Parkdale--High Park LPC NDP 14.3 LPC

22 Perth--Wellington CPC CPC 33.2 NDP

23 Simcoe--Grey Ind. CPC 32 NDP

24 St. Catharines CPC CPC 27.1 NDP

25 St. Paul's LPC LPC 8.2 CPC26 Wellington--Halton Hills CPC CPC 47.3 LPC

27 Willowdale LPC CPC 1.8 LPC



10/24

Riding s #6-23: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario

Continuing the process I outlined above yields the following result; each column represents one ofthe robocall ridings, and each row represents an alternative riding that can be chosen. Following thealgorithm, for each column, pick from the remaining rows in order to minimize the difference

between the winning margins of the old (robocall) and new (non-robocall) ridings.

Other Ridings

Rob

ocallR

idin

gs

(Roun

ds)

EtobicokeC

entre

MississaugaEast--Cooksville

Willowdale

London

North

Centre

Kitchener--W

aterloo

Ottawa--Orlans

Eglinton--La

wrence

Ottawa

West--Nepean

London

West

Oakville

Cambridge

Haldimand-

-Norfolk

St.Catharin

es

NiagaraFalls

Simcoe--Gr

ey

Kitchener--C

onestoga

Perth--Wellington

Wellington-

-Halton

Hills

Margin 0 1.5 1.8 3.2 3.3 6.2 8.4 13.2 17.7 20.9 25.7 26 27.1 29.8 32 32.3 33.2 47.3

Bramalea--Gore--Malton 0.9 1

Don Valley West 1.1 2

Pickering--Scarborough East 2.5 3

Scarborough Centre 3.9 4

Etobicoke--Lakeshore 5.2 5

Ajax--Pickering 5.8 6

Richmond Hill 8.8 7

Mississauga South 9.3Mississauga--Brampton South 9.5

Mississauga--Erindale 13.1 8

Oshawa 13.4

York Centre 15.2

Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 18.1 9

Brampton--Springdale 20.4

Brant 20.4 10

Vaughan 26.4 11

Chatham-Kent--Essex 27.5 12

Nepean--Carleton 29.3 13

Huron--Bruce 29.6 14

Prince Edward--Hastings 29.6Newmarket--Aurora 30.4

Burlington 30.9

Northumberland--Quinte West 32.8 15

Carleton--Mississippi Mills 33

Elgin--Middlesex--London 33 16


11/24

Ridings #24-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario

Based on margin of victory alone, the above algorithm would select OttawaVanier and OttawaSouth. Note that in my previous note, based on the criterion of proximity, I instead chose ridings inthe GTA (i.e., closer to the robocall ridings).

Robocall Ridings IncumbentWinning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

St. Paul's LPC LPC 8.2 CPC

Guelph LPC LPC 10.6 CPC

Other RidingsDifference

from St. Paul's

Difference

from Guelph

Scarborough--Guildwood LPC LPC 1.8 6.4 8.8 CPC

Ottawa--Vanier LPC LPC 8.8 0.6 1.8 NDP

Etobicoke North LPC LPC 10.3 2.1 0.3 CPC

Ottawa South LPC LPC 10.7 2.5 0.1 CPC

Toronto Centre LPC LPC 10.8 2.6 0.2 NDP

Scarborough--Agincourt LPC LPC 11.2 3 0.6 CPC

York West LPC LPC 19.2 11 8.6 NDP


Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario

Again, based on margin of victory alone, the above algorithm would select Hamilton Mountain andScarboroughRouge River (York SouthWeston is also a strong candidate).

Robocall Ridings Incumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 9 CPC

Parkdale--High Park LPC NDP 14.3 LPC

Difference Difference



12/24

Ontario (2008 version)

We need to pick 22 ridings from the 56 remaining in Southern Ontario (see Appendix, Table 3E), toreplace the following:


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

6 Kitchener--Waterloo LPC CPC 0.0 LPC

7 London West LPC CPC 3.7 CPC

8 Ottawa--Orlans CPC CPC 6.1 LPC

9 Haldimand--Norfolk CPC CPC 8.5 LPC

10 Ottawa West--Nepean CPC CPC 8.9 LPC

11 Oakville LPC CPC 9.9 LPC

12 St. Catharines CPC CPC 17.3 LPC

13 Niagara Falls CPC CPC 19.7 LPC

14 Perth--Wellington CPC CPC 24.4 LPC

15 Kitchener--Conestoga CPC CPC 24.4 LPC

16 Cambridge CPC CPC 25.2 LPC

17 Simcoe--Grey CPC CPC 33.5 LPC

18 Wellington--Halton Hills CPC CPC 35.3 LPC19 Guelph None LPC 3.0 CPC

20 Eglinton--Lawrence LPC LPC 4.7 CPC

21 Parkdale--High Park NDP LPC 7.0 NDP

22 Etobicoke Centre LPC LPC 11.3 CPC

23 Willowdale LPC LPC 16.2 CPC

24 Mississauga East--Cooksville LPC LPC 17.6 CPC

25 St. Paul's LPC LPC 23.8 CPC

26 London North Centre NDP NDP 6.2 CPC

27 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 13.4 LPC


To simplify, again, this may be done in three stages:


13/24

Riding s #6-18: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario



Other Ridings

Rob

ocall

Ridin

gs

(Rou

nds)

Kitchener--Waterloo

London

West

Ottawa--Orlans

Haldimand--N

orfolk

Ottawa

West--Nepean

Oakville

St.Catharines

NiagaraFalls

Perth--Welling

ton

Kitchener--Conestoga

Cambridge

Simcoe--Grey

Wellington--Ha

ltonHills

Margin 0.0 3.7 6.1 8.5 8.9 9.9 17.3 19.7 24.4 24.4 25.2 33.5 35.3

Mississauga--Erindale 0.7 1

Oshawa 6.6 2

Brant 8.8 3

Thornhill 9.6 4

Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 10.4 5

Huron--Bruce 11.8 6

Newmarket--Aurora 12.4

Burlington 15.4

Chatham-Kent--Essex 18.8 7

Northumberland--Quinte West 20.1 8

Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 20.5

Simcoe North 22.0

Prince Edward--Hastings 23.1

Elgin--Middlesex--London 24.9 9

Whitby--Oshawa 25.3 10

Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 26.6 11Niagara West--Glanbrook 28.0

Barrie 28.5

Durham 31.0

Nepean--Carleton 32.4


14/24

Ridings #19-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario



Other Ridings

Rob

ocallR

idin

gs

(Rou

nds)

Guelph

Eglinton--Lawrence

Parkdale--High

Park

Etobicoke

Centre

Willowdale

Mississauga

East--C

ooksville

St.Paul's

Margin 3.0 4.7 7.0 11.3 16.2 17.6 23.8

Brampton--Springdale 1.7 1

Mississauga South 4.6 2

York Centre 5.5Don Valley West 5.5

Ajax--Pickering 6.6 3

Bramalea--Gore--Malton 7.9

Beaches--East York 8.8

Etobicoke--Lakeshore 11.3 4

Richmond Hill 11.3

Mississauga--Brampton South 14.7

Vaughan 14.9

Ottawa South 16.5 5

Pickering--Scarborough East 17.2 6Etobicoke North 18.5

Scarborough Centre 18.6

York South--Weston 18.7


15/24

Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario

Based on the margin of victory alone, the above algorithm would select Hamilton Mountain andTrinitySpadina (both were included in my original regression).

Robocall Ridings IncumbentWinning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

London North Centre NDP NDP 6.2 CPC

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 13.4 LPC

Other Ridings Differencefrom London

North Centre

Differencefrom Hamilton

East

Welland LPC NDP 0.6 5.6 12.8 CPC

Trinity--Spadina NDP NDP 5.8 0.4 7.6 LPC

London--Fanshawe NDP NDP 12.2 6.0 1.2 CPC

Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 13.0 6.8 0.4 CPC

Toronto--Danforth NDP NDP 15.4 9.2 2.0 LPC

Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 27.0 20.8 13.6 CPC



16/24

Regression Results

Given Prof. Kesslers model,

I estimated with the two sets of ridings picked algorithmically as described above (alg2011i for those

selected via comparing 2011 election results, and alg2008i for those selected via comparing 2008election results).7

(7-1)

(7-2)

As before, I also estimated additional models that include both new and old (robocall) interaction

terms:

(7-3)

(7 4)


17/24

From Prof. Kesslers paper, note the coefficient of the robocall interaction variable: 8

Compare it to the coefficients using 27 other (non-robocall) ridings, selected algorithmically based

on their regional and political similarities to the 27 robocall ridings:

coefficient standard error

lagturnout .718** (.0115)

lagoppvoteshare .058** (.007)

alg2011 x lagoppvoteshare .038** (.017)

number of observations 57241

Table 7-1: Voter Turnout and Non-Robocall Ridings

(selected algorithmically using 2011 data): non-weightedregressions

Within District Difference-in-Difference Estimates


18/24




robocall x lagoppvoteshare .054** (.014)



Table 7-3: Voter Turnout, Robocall Ridings and Non-

Robocall Ridings (selected algorithmically using 2011 data):

non-weighted regressions





robocall x lagoppvoteshare .057** (.014)



Table 7-4: Voter Turnout, Robocall Ridings and Non-

Robocall Ridings (selected algorithmically using 2008 data):

non-weighted regressions



19/24

AppendixTable 1: Original 27 Ridings (Robocalls)

Riding Region Incumbent WinningParty

Margin ofVictory

2ndPlace

Incumbent WinningParty

Margin ofVictory

2ndPlace

1 Saint Boniface Manitoba LPC CPC 11.2 LPC CPC CPC 19.5 LPC

2 Winnipeg South Centre Manitoba LPC LPC 6.0 CPC LPC CPC 1.8 LPC

3 Sudbury Northern ON LPC NDP 5.0 LPC NDP NDP 21.6 CPC

4 Sydney--Victoria Nova Scotia LPC LPC 25.0 NDP LPC LPC 2.1 CPC

5 Egmont PEI None CPC 0.3 LPC CPC CPC 23.3 LPC

6 Cambridge Southern ON CPC CPC 25.2 LPC CPC CPC 25.7 NDP

7 Eglinton--Lawrence * Southern ON LPC LPC 4.7 CPC LPC CPC 8.4 LPC

8 Etobicoke Centre Southern ON LPC LPC 11.3 CPC LPC CPC 0 ** LPC

9 Guelph Southern ON None LPC 3.0 CPC LPC LPC 10.6 CPC

10 Haldimand--Norfolk Southern ON CPC CPC 8.5 LPC CPC CPC 26 LPC

11 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek Southern ON NDP NDP 13.4 LPC NDP NDP 9 CPC12 Kitchener--Conestoga Southern ON CPC CPC 24.4 LPC CPC CPC 32.3 NDP

13 Kitchener--Waterloo Southern ON LPC CPC 0 ** LPC CPC CPC 3.3 LPC

14 London North Centre Southern ON LPC LPC 6.2 CPC LPC CPC 3.2 LPC

15 London West * Southern ON LPC CPC 3.7 LPC CPC CPC 17.7 LPC

16 Mississauga East--Cooksville Southern ON LPC LPC 17.6 CPC None CPC 1.5 LPC

17 Niagara Falls Southern ON CPC CPC 19.7 LPC CPC CPC 29.8 NDP

18 Oakville Southern ON LPC CPC 9.9 LPC CPC CPC 20.9 LPC

19 Ottawa West--Nepean Southern ON CPC CPC 8.9 LPC CPC CPC 13.2 LPC

20 Ottawa--Orlans Southern ON CPC CPC 6.1 LPC CPC CPC 6.2 LPC

21 Parkdale--High Park Southern ON NDP LPC 7.0 NDP LPC NDP 14.3 LPC

22 Perth--Wellington * Southern ON CPC CPC 24.4 LPC CPC CPC 33.2 NDP

23 Simcoe--Grey Southern ON CPC CPC 33.5 LPC Ind. CPC 32 NDP24 St. Catharines Southern ON CPC CPC 17.3 LPC CPC CPC 27.1 NDP

25 St. Paul's Southern ON LPC LPC 23.8 CPC LPC LPC 8.2 CPC

26 Wellington--Halton Hills * Southern ON CPC CPC 35.3 LPC CPC CPC 47.3 LPC

27 Willowdale Southern ON LPC LPC 16.2 CPC LPC CPC 1.8 LPC

* These four ridings are not included in Prof. Kessler's "extended" list. ** Margin < 0.1% in Kitchener-Waterloo in 2008, and Etobicoke Centre in 2011.

2008 2011

19


20/24

Table 2: Another 25 Robocall Ridings (from Extended List)

Riding Region IncumbentWinning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

PlaceIncumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

28 Winnipeg Centre Manitoba NDP NDP 27.3 CPC NDP NDP 26.1 CPC

29 Winnipeg South Manitoba CPC CPC 14.0 LPC CPC CPC 19.5 LPC

30 Nipissing--Timiskaming Northern ON LPC LPC 12.2 CPC LPC CPC 0.1 LPC

31 Sault Ste. Marie Northern ON NDP NDP 2.7 CPC NDP CPC 4.2 NDP

32 Thunder Bay--Superior North Northern ON None NDP 8.7 LPC NDP NDP 20.2 CPC

33 South Shore--St. Margaret's Nova Scotia CPC CPC 2.3 NDP CPC CPC 7 NDP

34 West Nova Nova Scotia LPC CPC 3.8 LPC CPC CPC 10.6 LPC

35 Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough Southern ON CPC CPC 19.4 LPC CPC CPC 26.6 LPC

36 Brampton West Southern ON None LPC 0.4 CPC LPC CPC 9.8 LPC

37 Davenport Southern ON LPC LPC 14.5 NDP LPC NDP 25.8 LPC

38 Don Valley East Southern ON LPC LPC 17.1 CPC LPC CPC 2.2 LPC

39 Essex Southern ON CPC CPC 10.9 LPC CPC CPC 12.9 NDP

40 Halton Southern ON LPC CPC 11.3 LPC CPC CPC 28.7 LPC

41 Kingston and the Islands Southern ON LPC LPC 6.6 CPC None LPC 4.4 CPC

42 Kitchener Centre Southern ON LPC CPC 0.8 LPC CPC CPC 11.1 LPC

43 Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox Southern ON CPC CPC 34.1 LPC CPC CPC 36.6 NDP

44 Markham--Unionville Southern ON LPC LPC 24.9 CPC LPC LPC 3.4 CPC

45 Mississauga--Streetsville Southern ON CPC LPC 10.0 CPC LPC CPC 6.9 LPC

46 Oak Ridges--Markham Southern ON LPC CPC 0.7 LPC CPC CPC 22.8 LPC

47 Ottawa Centre Southern ON NDP NDP 13.7 LPC NDP NDP 30.4 CPC

48 Peterborough Southern ON CPC CPC 15.8 LPC CPC CPC 24.8 NDP

49 Sarnia--Lambton Southern ON CPC CPC 28.4 NDP CPC CPC 22.7 NDP

50 Scarborough Southwest Southern ON None LPC 12.3 CPC LPC NDP 3.2 CPC

51 Windsor West Southern ON NDP NDP 29.9 CPC NDP NDP 22.7 CPC

52 Windsor--Tecumseh Southern ON NDP NDP 24.8 CPC NDP NDP 16.3 CPC

2008 2011

20


21/24

Table 3A: All Remaining Ridings in Manitoba

Riding Incumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place Incumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

1 Brandon--Souris CPC CPC 39.4 NDP CPC CPC 38.5 NDP

2 Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia CPC CPC 32.6 LPC CPC CPC 37.5 NDP

3 Churchill LPC NDP 18.7 LPC NDP NDP 24.9 CPC

4 Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette CPC CPC 44.7 NDP CPC CPC 37 NDP

5 Elmwood--Transcona None NDP 5.0 CPC NDP CPC 0.9 NDP

6 Kildonan--St. Paul CPC CPC 20.7 NDP CPC CPC 28.1 NDP

7 Portage--Lisgar None CPC 54.7 LPC CPC CPC 66.2 NDP

8 Provencher CPC CPC 50.9 NDP CPC CPC 52.7 NDP

9 Selkirk--Interlake CPC CPC 35.9 NDP CPC CPC 38.7 NDP

10 Winnipeg North NDP NDP 40.3 CPC LPC LPC 0.2 NDP

2008 2011

Table 3B: All Remaining Ridings in Northern Ontario


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

PlaceIncumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

1 Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing LPC NDP 13.0 LPC NDP NDP 21.4 CPC

2 Kenora LPC CPC 8.8 LPC CPC CPC 19.1 NDP

3 Nickel Belt None NDP 20.2 LPC NDP NDP 27 CPC

4 Parry Sound--Muskoka CPC CPC 25.2 LPC CPC CPC 31.5 NDP

5 Thunder Bay--Rainy River LPC NDP 8.1 LPC NDP NDP 21.5 CPC

6 Timmins--James Bay NDP NDP 34.4 LPC NDP NDP 18.7 CPC

2008 2011

21


22/24

Table 3C: All Remaining Ridings in Nova Scotia


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

PlaceIncumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

1 Cape Breton--Canso LPC LPC 24.6 CPC LPC LPC 15.8 CPC

2 Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LPC LPC 7.9 NDP LPC NDP 1.2 LPC

3 Halifax None NDP 15.1 LPC NDP NDP 26 LPC

4 Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest LPC LPC 12.0 NDP LPC LPC 5.4 CPC

5 Kings--Hants LPC LPC 18.0 CPC LPC LPC 3 CPC

6 Sackville--Eastern Shore NDP NDP 40.7 CPC NDP NDP 23.6 CPC

7 South Shore--St. Margaret's CPC CPC 2.3 NDP CPC CPC 7 NDP

8 West Nova/Nova-Ouest LPC CPC 3.8 LPC CPC CPC 10.6 LPC

2008 2011

Table 3D: All Remaining Ridings in PEI


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

PlaceIncumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

1 Cardigan LPC LPC 23.2 CPC LPC LPC 11.2 CPC

2 Charlottetown LPC LPC 18.0 CPC None LPC 6.8 CPC

3 Malpeque LPC LPC 4.9 CPC LPC LPC 3.3 CPC

2008 2011

22


23/24

Table 3E: All Remaining Ridings in Southern Ontario


Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

PlaceIncumbent

Winning

Party

Margin of

Victory

2nd

Place

1 Ajax--Pickering LPC LPC 6.6 CPC LPC CPC 5.8 LPC

2 Barrie CPC CPC 28.5 LPC CPC CPC 35.8 NDP

3 Beaches--East York LPC LPC 8.8 NDP LPC NDP 10.8 LPC

4 Bramalea--Gore--Malton LPC LPC 7.9 CPC LPC CPC 0.9 NDP

5 Brampton--Springdale LPC LPC 1.7 CPC LPC CPC 20.4 LPC

6 Brant LPC CPC 8.8 LPC CPC CPC 20.4 NDP

7 Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound CPC CPC 20.5 GRN CPC CPC 38.7 NDP

8 Burlington CPC CPC 15.4 LPC CPC CPC 30.9 LPC

9 Carleton--Mississippi Mills CPC CPC 35.4 LPC CPC CPC 33 LPC

10 Chatham-Kent--Essex CPC CPC 18.8 LPC CPC CPC 27.5 NDP

11 Don Valley West None LPC 5.5 CPC LPC CPC 1.1 LPC

12 Dufferin--Caledon CPC CPC 33.9 LPC CPC CPC 44.3 NDP

13 Durham CPC CPC 31 LPC CPC CPC 33.4 NDP

14 Elgin--Middlesex--London CPC CPC 24.9 LPC CPC CPC 33 NDP

15 Etobicoke North LPC LPC 18.5 CPC LPC LPC 10.3 CPC

16 Etobicoke--Lakeshore LPC LPC 11.3 CPC LPC CPC 5.2 LPC

17 Glengarry--Prescott--Russell CPC CPC 10.4 LPC CPC CPC 18.1 LPC

18 Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes CPC CPC 35.5 LPC CPC CPC 37.9 NDP

19 Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 27.0 CPC NDP NDP 30.6 CPC

20 Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 13.0 CPC NDP NDP 14.1 CPC

21 Huron--Bruce None CPC 11.8 LPC CPC CPC 29.6 NDP22 Lambton--Kent--Middlesex CPC CPC 26.6 LPC CPC CPC 33.7 NDP

23 Leeds--Grenville CPC CPC 41.3 LPC CPC CPC 42.5 NDP

24 London--Fanshawe NDP NDP 12.2 CPC NDP NDP 17.4 CPC

25 Mississauga South LPC LPC 4.6 CPC LPC CPC 9.3 LPC

26 Mississauga--Brampton South LPC LPC 14.7 CPC LPC CPC 9.5 LPC

27 Mississauga--Erindale LPC CPC 0.7 LPC CPC CPC 13.1 LPC

28 Nepean--Carleton CPC CPC 32.4 LPC CPC CPC 29.3 LPC

29 Newmarket--Aurora None CPC 12.4 LPC CPC CPC 30.4 LPC

30 Niagara West--Glanbrook CPC CPC 28.0 LPC CPC CPC 35.7 NDP

31 Northumberland--Quinte West CPC CPC 20.1 LPC CPC CPC 32.8 LPC

32 Oshawa CPC CPC 6.6 NDP CPC CPC 13.4 NDP33 Ottawa South LPC LPC 16.5 CPC LPC LPC 10.7 CPC

34 Ottawa--Vanier LPC LPC 18.9 CPC LPC LPC 8.8 NDP

35 Oxford CPC CPC 33.3 LPC CPC CPC 33.3 NDP

36 Pickering--Scarborough East LPC LPC 17.2 CPC LPC CPC 2.5 LPC

2008 2011


24/24

Table 4: Alternative Ridings Selected via Algorithm

Original List (Robocall Ridings) My Original List (Previous Note) List Produced by Algorithm (2008) List Produced by Algorithm (2011)

Saint Boniface, MB Winnipeg South, MB

Winnipeg South Centre, MB

Sudbury, Northern ON

Sydney Victoria, NS Kings-Hants, NS Cape BretonCanso, NS Kings-Hants, NS

Egmont, PEI

Cambridge, Southern ON

Eglinton-Lawrence, Southern ON Don Valley West, Southern ON Ottawa South, Southern ON Don Valley West, Southern ON

Etobicoke Centre, Southern ON

Guelph, Southern ON Etobicoke North, Southern ON Brampton--Springdale, Southern ON Ottawa--Vanier, Southern ON

Haldimand-Norfolk, Southern ON

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Southern ON

Kitchener-Conestoga, Southern ON Vaughan, Southern ON Whitby--Oshawa, Southern ON Vaughan, Southern ON

Kitchener-Waterloo, Southern ON

London North Centre, Southern ON

London West, Southern ON

Mississauga East-Cooksville, Southern ON Richmond Hill, Southern ON

Niagara Fal ls, Southern ON Niagara West -Glanbrook, Southern ONOakville, Southern ON Burlington, Southern ON

Ottawa Orleans, Southern ON Scarborough Centre, Southern ON Thornhill, Southern ON Scarborough Centre, Southern ON

Ottawa West-Napean, Southern ON

Parkdale-High Park, Southern ON Scarborough--Rouge River, Southern ON

Perth-Wellington, Southern ON

Simcoe-Grey, Southern ON Simcoe North, Southern ON

St. Catharines, Southern ON Newmarket-Aurora, Southern ON Oshawa, Southern ON Nepean--Carleton, Southern ON

St. Paul's, Southern ON Toronto Centre, Southern ON Scarborough--Agincourt, Southern ON Ottawa South, Southern ON

Wel lington-Halton Hi lls, Southern ON Duffer in-Caledon, Southern ON Car le ton--Mississippi Mi lls, Southern ON Dufferin- -Caledon, Southern ON

W illowdale, Southern ON York Centre, Southern ON Lambton--Kent--Middlesex, Southern ON Bramalea--Gore--Malton, Southern ON

Ajax-Pickering, Southern ON

Northumberland--Quinte West, Southern ONGlengarry--Prescott--Russell, Southern ON

Chatham-Kent--Essex, Southern ON

Huron-Bruce, Southern ON

Brant, Southern ON

Trinity-Spadina, Southern ON

Oxford, Southern ON

Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Southern ON

Elgin-Middlesex-London, ON

Mississauga South, Southern ON

Hamilton Mountain, Southern ON

Mississauga-Erindale, Southern ON

Pickering-Scarborough East, Southern ON

KildonanSt. Paul, MB

Elmwood-Transcona, MB

Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Northern ON

Malpeque, PEI

24

Documents

A Note on Robocalls Part II