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8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
1/9
ontent of this edition
New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-
slim Countries?
Sal Rodrguez
p i c s o f A n A l y s i s
rocco in the Face of the Tunisian
volution
Abdallah Saaf
e Future of Security in the Arab
gion
Azmi Shuaibi
v e l o p i n g p r o j e c T s
SN: Championing Local Ownership
d SSR Dialogue in Africa
Philip Emase
ws
b l i c A T i o n s
ordination: Rodrigo lvarez
ting and layout: Ney Fernandes
@securitytransformation.org
w . s e c u r i t y t r a n s f o r m a t i o n . o r g
A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries?
by Sal Rodrguez*1
The New Year began with demonstrations and riots in several countries in the MiddleEast and North Africa. For decades the region has experienced stable politicalconditions, ranging from governments supported by Washington in order to maintainregional stability, like Egypt, to Libya, lead by Muammar el-Qadda, a singular actor in Africafor over 40 years.
Most of these are anti-democratic regimes where civil society has been absent from politicalinstitutions and power, after the struggle to eliminate the colonial past and reject a Western
political framework. Currently, local economic conditions, employment crises and limitedpolitical participation for many people have led thousands to demand change in severalaspects of society.
These popular movements have created a new chance for a transitional period from anauthoritarian model to a democratic one, and in other cases have caused local powers toconsider a new democratic awareness.
This situation could generate a new environment for security sector reform, but Any changeof security institutions should be part of a coherent program supervised by the internationalcommunity, but rmly developed in a local context and focused on the needs of the population,rather than trying to copy Western models.
In this line, a democratic opening in the Middle East and North Africa should imply a solid
human security perspective to solve structural and social problems such as poverty, unequalsocio-economic conditions, freedom from want and so on, in order to consolidate a realdemocracy supported by the populace.
On the other hand, transformation of the security apparatus should include a totalprofessionalization of these institutions to maintain democracy and security, and police andmilitary institutions subordinated to the will of the people.
For this purpose, it should encourage the creation of civil-control institutions (as NGOsinterested to security issues), a well-dened role for civilians and the military in securitymatters, security institutions properly trained in human rights and democratic issues underspecialized international institutions, and strengthen parliamentary watchdogs in securityissues.
Therefore, the next several years will be an opportunity, and a challenge, to these countriesto create a real democratic environment. However, this mission is not easy and theimpending decisions could make things better or worse depending on social pressure and if
old fashioned leaders are interested in transferring their power to the masses.
* Research coordinator for Corporacin Oxgeno Social, Ponticia Universidad Javeriana
April 2011Bulletin no. 10
TransformingBulletine
http://www.miliwoman.com: George Fernandes Photo: FlickrFotografa: archivo personal
Photo: Celme Mathias
http://www.securitytransformation.org/http://www.securitytransformation.org/8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
2/9
2Bulletin no. 10
Morocco in the Face of the Tunisian Revolution
y Abdallah Saaf*
Top ic of AnAlys i s
Photo: Isabelle Fortin
The relative silence of Moroccanpoliticians with respect to the
change in Tunisia is surprising. The
nations political elite has been incapable
of reacting to the events of late 2010 and
anuary of this year. There is a tendency to
ee in this timid reaction further proof of the
weakness of the Moroccan political actors
and their withdrawal from public debate.
The Tunisian model has become a
heavy ideological and political burden
accused of delaying the Moroccan
process of democratization in two ways:
First, Moroccan political life has been
dominated by the view that the countrys
economic development takes precedence
over political evolution; and secondly,
t was believed that any opening would
olely favor the Islamists. Both theories
were becoming quite popular in Morocco.
Hence, the recent events in Tunisia directly
question the Moroccans: What changes
temming from the Tunisian Revolution
allow us to decipher what is happening in
Morocco? What are the opportunities to
emulate these events? What are the future
prospects for democracy in the region?
Following the resignation of Zine al-Abidine
Ben Ali, many observers thought that the
army was preparing to take power. One
of the natural reflexes of the autocratic
officials is being carried away by the ease
of power whenever the circumstances allow
t, and crush the opposition along the way.
Therefore, it proceeds to the
decertification of the policies around theeader and produces depoliticalization.
Authoritarianism breeds deterioration. A
better policy would have been to monitor
the health of the government, the strengthof its components, the vitality of its
interactions and avoid anything that could
weaken it.
In the case of Tunisia, the Islamist
alternative did not contribute a response
to either the political or social questions.
The discussions focus on theological-
political questions such as the State andIslamic societies, religion, the Constitution,
elections, etc. The Islamist economic or
social program seemed quite unconvincing,
while the charitable channels being
exploited gave the impression of having
been worn out. Within the Tunisian context,
there are few probabilities of creating a
connection between religion and politics,
with the more likely outcome
being the participation of
the Islamists in an eventual
coalition.
Emulate the Tunisian
process?
The conditions for
reproducing the Tunisian
process in Algeria, Libya
or Morocco vary by county.
Each has its own problems;
each State is guided by its
own biases, inclinations
and perspectives, and
there is not necessarily an
automatic transmission.
However, the events in
Tunisia could provoke
emulation throughout theregion and unleash the
spread of popular forces
and political, economic and
social demands.
Among the similarities worth noting is
that security forces have become vital
actors. Their relation with society today
is much more complex. The possibility
of change through new coalitions also
seems plausible. Other similarities
include the rejection of the old forms of
authoritarianism, a comparable economicpolicy amongst regimes, the importance of
social issues and the growing importance
that the issue of dignity has taken on.
There also are influences that cannot be
ignored. Indeed, the fall of the Tunisian
regime involves the collapse of the famous
Tunisian Model relied on by numerous
Photo: Celme Mathias
http://www.securitytransformation.org/8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
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Moroccan politicians, among others,
eeking to postpone the processes of
emocratization in the region.
he presence of authoritarian regimes in
he region was supposedly a check to the
rocess of change in countries like Morocco.
egional authoritarianism seemed to
eproach Morocco for progressing too
much. In fact, during Barcelona II, the
Moroccan government showed signs of
alting the process at the refusal of Arab
ountries to further liberalize their regimes.
On the other hand, in US diplomatic cables
evealed by WikiLeaks, didnt toppled
resident Ben Ali express his concern that
slamists could take power in Morocco?
emocratization in Maghreb
o date, there are several possible
utcomes:
The transition to full democracy, although
he current situation rules out this possibility
s the pseudo-reforms are not enough,
ven when accompanied by overblown
media campaigns.
The most plausible outcome are
hort- term reforms whose progressive
ccumulation could cause real change.
Is it possible to turn back and maintain
he status quo? It is difficult to imagine
hat these societies, with the degree of
evelopment achieved by their States and
olitical classes, will allow that to happen.
hese considerations do not entirely rule
ut the possibility of an undemocratic way.
While the regimes will find it difficult to
ontinue without a change of perspective,
he use of repression and control of the
pposition are not likely to completelyisappear.
Given these possibilities, some routes
could be envisaged:
The government could begin to address
the basic needs of the population by, for
example, delaying the removal of subsidiesfor basic necessities and providing various
additiona l subsidies. To this could be added
a general strengthening of the policies of
financial support and even the creation of
jobs for young people.
The government could seek to prevent
social conflicts from escalating into political
conflicts. Controlled democratization
may serve to allay the social demands by
including more people in the political sphere
to share control and alleviate the burdens of
the State. It is equally plausible to adopt a
path that involves concessions and political
alliances. Indeed, these openings may be
necessary to retain power.
In these initial interpretations of the
Tunisian revolution, what conclusions can
be drawn from the late reactions of the
countrys Western allies? Ignoring the plightof these people or, as Nicolas Sarkozy
recently stated, of not having the necessary
sensitivity, reflect Western societies lack of
interest in the reality of their southern allies.
This relates to the manner in which Northern
countries perceive the new issue of the
East, its representations of Islam, and itsmanner of dealing with immigration issues
and national identity. It could be argued
that there is a Western distrust towards the
Arab-Islamic peoples.
However, the Western allies must urgently
review their position. Given the serious
problems of unemployment among young
people and the risks of instability that
this can lead to, they will have to ease
the pressure they have exerted on these
economies to adapt them to the liberal
model and global economy. Therefore, the
probability is that we see the emergence
of policies less focused on economic
conditions and more concerned about the
political sphere.
* Director of Centre des tudes etRecherches en Sciences Sociales
(CERSS), Universit Mohamed V
3Bulletin no. 10
Top ic of AnAlys i s
Photo: readingmorocco.blogspot.com
http://www.securitytransformation.org/8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
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4Bulletin no. 10
Egypt
Although it is too soon to predict the final results of the
Youth Revolution (25th of January), one can safely make a
reliminary balance:
. There is a need for reconstruction of all security
apparatuses in terms of size, tasks entrusted to it,
and its place within the regime. Hence, the importance
of defining and stabilizing the role of the army in the
future civil State, a) as a protector of the State, its laws
and institutions, and b) free of taking part of rulingthe country a lesson learned based on the fact that
since the 1952 revolution, three presidents were from
the security institution.
. The role of the internal state security service (political
police), which formed the dominant body over the ruling
elites and the centers of power and influence in the
Egyptian society, may collapse. This body (100,000) is
granted power and authority outside the framework of
the law to engage in all kinds of acts of domination andcoercion, and also influence decisions related to the
management of public affairs. Furthermore, it defines
relationships with political parties from the opposition
and civil society organizations, and identifies people
and candidates of the ruling party itself. And despite
recent calls for the cancellation of this body, it is more
likely that its name and role might be reconsidered.
Its role will most likely be limited to management of
collecting general information and presenting it to
the decision-making centers of the State. It may also
include management of a department for the analysis of
options and expected results of policies and government
decisions in a professional and transparent manner,
hence cancelling its role of monitoring citizens lives.
This also applies to Tunisia.
. It is certain that the role of the police, as an essential
tool for law enforcement, would have to be reinforced
in addition to the redefining of the concept and slogan
the police is at the service of the people.
. As it appears, it is difficult to find direct and quick
solutions that aim at reducing the cost of wages to the
large number of employees in the security apparatus.
This needs to be evaluated and documented since the
salaries of police operators are relatively low, which in
turn has contributed to the spread of corruption in their
midst.5. It is important that the security apparatus be subject to
the political authority and be held accountable for its
deeds, especially after electing a true representative
parliamentary body that is fair and transparent; in one
way or another, this applies to Tunisia.
Libya
The security apparatus is known as the competitive
apparatus or militia groups, and it is run by paramilitary
squads loyal to the president; there is no real army
institution. Therefore, given the nature of the struggle, a
national army and a professional police will emerge far
from giving loyalty to the leader or the tribe. This prediction
is conditional upon ending the Qaddafi regime, since his
remaining in power, and fighting the revolutionary, could
lead to the emergence of local militias.
Yemen
The situation is going in the direction of the emergence of acivil State in the South where they will rebuild the security
apparatuses on professional and vocational bases. The
North, however, is a good candidate to entrench the
The Future of Security in the Arab Regiony Azmi Shuaibi*
Top ic of AnAlys i s
Photo: US Department of Defense
http://www.securitytransformation.org/8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
5/9
5Bulletin no. 10
henomenon of tribal militias. Based on that, it is expected
hat reform of the security apparatus will take place in the
South. Later one, however, if the situation becomes more
uitable, it might be possible to put the issue of SSR on the
genda of the protesters.
Bahrain
t is likely that the security institutions will be strengthened
with some modifications that aim at creating new jobs for
he youth and increase the professional orientation of the
rmy and the police.
The wave of uprising and expression is likely to extend
o include Algeria, Sudan, Morocco, Kuwait, Syria, Saudi
Arabia, Jordan and Iraq, taking into considerat ion that the Gulf
States, Jordan and Morocco will go through constitutional
eforms. It is more likely that they would strengthen the role
f the military and the police professionally at the expensef the political security apparatus.
Saudi Arabia
t is difficult to predict trends there, especially since reform
s achieved through bribing the largest number possible
f protesters with special privileges and other financial
ains. This could include salary raises for employees of the
ecurity institutions along with strengthening the role of the
nternal security apparatus, which will monitor and report
n the lives of the citizens. It may a lso work superficially on
eform within some constitutional institutions such as the
Representative Shura Council.
Syria
It is like a pressure cooker; it can either remain closed for
the time required or explode if given the opportunity. In any
case, the foreseen security leadership will play a role.
Role of the Civil Society
The role of the civil society is a major engine in this
movement in the Arab World. This is especially true for the
media, human rights institutions, good governance and rule
of law institutions, representatives of trade unions and other
professional unions, and youth groups and institutions. New
means of communication further enhanced and facilitated
civil societys role by transforming individual initiatives into
collective action.
Maintaining this movement is of great importance
considering that it is a peaceful popular movement with
collective demands that aim at:
Ensuring a representative political system that
respects human rights and citizens dignity as well as
fundamental freedoms such as the right of assembly
and association, expression etc.
Rejecting any political regime based on the rule of oneindividual, even if it is fair.
Combating corruption and holding all corrupt individuals
accountable.
Ensuring equity and social justice for members of
society.
In conclusion, it is expected that the model of Captured
State will be undermined in the Arab region. The
abovementioned countries certainly have their owncondition that dictates and guides the vision and mission
of its people, reflected by this youth movements. However,
there are many basic needs and aims that these countries
share. They also share peaceful methods to move the
populace. Nevertheless, great caution needs to be taken
in order not to abort this movement through giving it a
tint of specific color as in Bahrain, or geographic as in
Yemen, or place of origin as in Jordan, or ethnic as in Iraq,
or religious as in Sudan.
* Commissioner for Combating Corruption, AMAN
Coalition
hoto: Celme Mathias
Top ic of AnAlys i s
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6Bulletin no. 10
In one of the biggest milestones since the onset of Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Africa, the African Union (AU)
Assembly in February 2008 mandated the AU Commission to develop a comprehensive Policy Framework on African
SSR.
This decision was favourably received by the continents SSR community because it promised a break from years of
iecemeal SSR efforts that often yielded mixed results amid concerns over local ownership of the reform agenda.
For its technical partner in the resulting AU SSR Project, the AU Commission has chosen to work with the African Security
Sector Network (ASSN), an indigenous organisation that has emerged as Africas largest and technically best equipped
SSR network.
The two parties signed a Memorandum of Understanding formalizing this partnership in October 2010. As part of this
ollaboration, the ASSN provides office space and equipment for the AU SSR project in Addis Ababa. The network has also
econded one of its foremost experts, Professor Medhane Tadesse, as a Senior Advisor to the African Union, alongside a
Gender and SSR advisor.
The ongoing AU SSR Project provides an opportunity for the ASSN to make its biggest contribution yet to African SSR.
Established in 2003, the ASSN was created to harmonise the then disparate activities of the various African organisations
working in the area of SSR. It has since grown to attain a continental stature, with a membership base of individuals,
xperts and organisations from across Africa. Its collaborative partners today include the African Union, the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the UN SSR Unit, Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF),
he Global Consortium for Security Transformation (GCST) and the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed
orces (DCAF) among others.
The ASSN is also involved in the African Union mission to South Sudan, which voted earlier this year to become Africas
ewest independent nation and requires substantial assistance in the construction of its security sector. The ASSN Chair,
Professor Eboe Hutchful, is a member of the African Union delegation to South Sudan.
Aside from its work with the African Union, the ASSN is concurrently collaborating with the West African Network on Security
nd Democratic Governance (WANSED) in the development of the Security Sector Governance (SSG) Component of the
ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework.
The network has also embarked on the establishment of its own indigenous roster of African SSR/SSG Experts. Admission
o this roster is stringently benchmarked against UN standards, and the final inductees will be placed at the disposal of
egional organizations, national authorities and security institutions, external partners, and other entities involved in or
ontemplating SSR.
Another significant development is the establishment of an independent secretariat based in Accra, Ghana, entirely staffed
y a team of African professionals. The new secretariat administers the networks activities on a fulltime basis and maintains
lose tandem with the networks Regional Hubs in Addis Ababa, Johannesburg and Nairobi. In terms of organisation, each
ASSN: Championing Local Ownership and SSR Dialogue in Africay Philip Emase*
Developing projecTs
http://www.securitytransformation.org/8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
7/9
7Bulletin no. 10
Regional Hub is hosted by the networks main affiliate in the region, currently the Centre for Policy Research and Dialogue
CPRD) in the Horn of Africa, African Security Dialogue and Research (ASDR) in West Africa, Security Research and
nformation Centre (SRIC) in East Africa and the Great Lakes Region, and the Southern African Defence and Security
Management Network (SADSEM) in Southern Africa.
Despite its successes, the network has faced quite a few challenges over the past year. In July 2010, its regional coordinator
or East Africa and the Great Lakes Region, Col Jan Kamenju, lost his life to unknown gunmen in Nairobi, while in the Horn
f Africa, a new NGO law passed by the Ethiopian parliament forced the dissolution of the ASSNs main affiliate in the Horn
f Africa Region, CPRD.
These challenges have nevertheless been taken in stride. The late Kamenjus former deputy, Col Jerry Kitiku, has ably
ucceeded him at the helm of the ASSNs regional operations in East Africa, while CPRD has relocated to Juba, South
Sudan.
Meanwhile, the ASSN has continued working with national legislatures to strengthen their critical role as an important
venue for civilian oversight of the security sector. The network has built a strong record in this area though parliamentary
workshops, executive courses and roundtables that give premium attention to parliamentary select committees for defence,
nterior and security.
Beyond its capacity building focus, the ASSN has also found success in networking beyond its original Anglophone sphere,
most prominently through a series of parliamentary workshops conducted jointly with the OIF in a number of French-
peaking countries. This increased activity in the Francophone and Lusophone parts of Africa has seen a growing number
f high-profile new recruits into the ASSNs membership base, as well as the gradual evolution of an SSR expert network
n an area previously dominated by Anglophones.
The positive response in Francophone and Lusophone Africa has reinvigorated the networks long held aspiration to
xtend its work into North Africa, particularly in light of the recent political revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt and the ongoing
nrest in various other countries in the region. All these unfolding events have implications for SSR/SSG in the region, and
onsequently, the ASSN and its North African partners have begun seeking each other out and matching ideas.
*Information and Communications Officer, African Security S ector Network (ASSN)
Developing projecTs
hoto: Celme Mathias
http://www.securitytransformation.org/8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
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8Bulletin no. 10
GCST News
orkshop on Cooperation to Control Non-State Nuclear Proliferation: Extra Territorial Jurisdiction and UN Resolutions 1540 and
373
his workshop, hosted by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and took
ace on April 4-5, explored theoretical options and practical pathways to extend states control over non-state actor nuclear proliferation
rough the use of extra-territorial jurisdiction and international legal cooperation. The workshop brought together a range of experts from the
nited States, Europe, Asia, and Africa to discuss these issues and generate a set of next steps for further research and immediate action by
olicy makers. The GCST was represented by Rodrigo lvarez, who participated in the round-table untitled Extra-Territorial Jurisdiction and
egulation of Non-State Actors. More information at: http://nautilus.org/projects/non-state-proliferation/1540-Workshop/
nd of the 3rd Small Grants Initiative
n April 27 the GCST received the research papers from the 24 grantees of the 3rd Small Grants Initiative. These grants were nanced by
e Department for International Development (DFID). During the next months the GCST will revise and publish these papers, which will giventinuity to the New Voices Series. The GCST would like to thank DFID for making this possible and all the grantees for their good work.
vents
egional Workshop on the Montreux Document on Private Military and Security Companies
hilean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 12-13, 2011
his workshop, sponsored by the governments of Chile and Switzerland, is being organized by the GCST and the Geneva Centre for the
emocratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) in collaboration with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). The event will bring
gether 40 experts from the academic world and ONGs, as well as government ofcials from Latin-American and the Caribbean.
ownload the workshop program from: http://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux workshop.pdf
ore information on the Montreux Document on Private Military and Security Companies at: http://www.securitytransformation.org/images/
ontreux background.pdf
raining Courses
hort Course on Strategic Planning for Security and Development
he Centre for Security Sector Management at Craneld University is now accepting applications for the 4-day short course in Strategic
anning for Security and Development which will run in both June 2011 and November. This course addresses a broad range of complex
sues for policymakers and practitioners working in the area of governance, development, national security, stabilisation, security sector
lated issues, and conict analysis. The curriculum provides students with a number of tools, analytical frameworks and methodologies for
ddressing policy development, strategic analysis, options generation, implementation and programming in these areas.
ore information at: http://www.ssronline.org/edocs/short_course_eyer_strategic_planning_jun11.pdf
news
http://www.securitytransformation.org/rodrigoalvarez.phphttp://nautilus.org/projects/non-state-proliferation/1540-Workshop/http://www.securitytransformation.org/recipients3.phphttp://www.securitytransformation.org/gc_publications_2.php?categoria=34http://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20workshop.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.ssronline.org/edocs/short_course_eflyer_strategic_planning_jun11.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/http://www.ssronline.org/edocs/short_course_eflyer_strategic_planning_jun11.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20workshop.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/gc_publications_2.php?categoria=34http://www.securitytransformation.org/recipients3.phphttp://nautilus.org/projects/non-state-proliferation/1540-Workshop/http://www.securitytransformation.org/rodrigoalvarez.php8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez
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9Bulletin no. 10
Secretariat:Corporacin Proyectamrica
Director:Lucia Dammert ([email protected])
Executive Manager:
Rodrigo lvarez ([email protected])
Assistants:Ney Fernandes ([email protected])
Cristbal Montt ([email protected])
Goujon, A. & Barakat, B. (2010).
Future Demographic Challenges
In the Arab World. The Emirate
Occasional Papers, (75). Abu Dhabi:
The Emirates Center for Strategic
Studies and Research (ECSSR)
Ottaway M. & Washington, H. (2009).
Getting to Pluralism: Political Actors
in the Arab World. Washington,
DC: Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace
Nimer, M. (2010). American Muslims
and the Obama Administration. Abu
Dhabi: The Emirates Center for Stra-
tegic Studies and Research (ECSSR)
publicATions
The GCST is proud to present its Non-
Proliferation and Disarmament Series.
These publications are the result of a
research grant given to four authors
specialized on nuclear non-proliferation
and disarmament.
Download the papers from our
publications section:
http://www.securitytransformation.org/
gc_publications_2.php?categoria=35
Los Araucanos 2689,Providencia,Santiago, Chile
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