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Social Marketing Downunder Conference 2005
A New Approach to Social Marketing:
Intervention Logic Modeling and Research Evaluation
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Dr Paul DuignanParker Duignan Ltd – WellingtonSenior Research Fellow forCentre for Social and Health Outcomes Research and Evaluation (SHORE)Massey University Auckland
More on outcomes theory:www.strategicevaluation.info
Andrea KanDirectorUMR Research Ltd Wellington–Auckland–Sydney-Brisbane
More about UMR:www.umr.co.nz
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Increased willingness to take preventive
actionIncreased stakeholder
willingness to participate in partnerships
Increased base level tolerance / support for
effective incursions mitigation
Increased willingness to take mitigation
action
Increased appropriate preventive behaviore.G. Declaring items
Increased appropriate
mitigation behavior
Increased stakeholder partnership initiatives
Increased support for specific incursion
mitigation
Increased Biosecurity
Reduction in biosecurity incursions
Effective incursion mitigation (eradication or management)
Increased under-standing of what to look for and how to respond if you see
something suspicious
Increased understanding of personal action
needed for effective mitigation
Increased under-standing of need for
biosecurity mitigations measures
Increased under-standing of what not to bring into NZ and what to
declare
Increased understanding of ballast water and
hull cleaning procedures
Increased stakeholder
understanding of the problem and
solutions
Increased Public understanding of biosecurity
Increased Stakeholders’understanding of biosecurity
Increased Inward Travelers’understanding of biosecurity
The Beginning
TheoryNew Way?Outcomes
TheoryPracticeModel
Development ??Intervention Logic ModelModel Assessment!Get it straightCreativityCreativityAtmosphereAtmosphere
No BoundariesNo Boundaries
We can work it outModel Refinement
RevolutionNo Evolution!
ActionInformed Logic
With feelingDefine – Implemented
Logic?Breakout!
Increased Inward Travellers’understanding of biosecurity
Increased Stakeholders’understanding of biosecurity
Increased Public understanding of biosecurity
Increased understanding of ballast water and
hull cleaning procedures
Increased under-standing of what not to bring into NZ and what to
declare
Increased under-standing of what to look for and how to respond if you see
something suspicious
Increased stakeholder
understanding of the problem and
solutions
Increased under-standing of need for
biosecurity mitigations measures
Increased understanding of personal action
needed for effective mitigation
Increased willingness to take preventive
actionIncreased stakeholder
willingness to participate in partnerships
Increased base level tolerance / support for
effective incursions mitigation
Increased willingness to take mitigation
action
Increased appropriate preventive behaviore.G. Declaring items
Increased stakeholder partnership initiatives
Increased support for specific incursion
mitigation
Increased appropriate
mitigation behavior
Reduction in biosecurity incursions
Effective incursion mitigation (eradication or management)
Increased Biosecurity
MAF Biosecurity Social Marketing Intervention Model
Informed logic outcomesOnly time will tell –iterative processWe can work it outWe can work it out
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The beginning…(Planned Logic)
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Theory to Practice
• Based on outcomes theory– Analytical framework for outcome systems
• Intervention logic (programme modelling, programme theory, outcome hierarchies, results chains)– Intermediate steps to achieve change or final
outcome for programme or policy
• Accepted good practice
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Uses
• Used to:– Assist stakeholder consultation– Programme planning & implementation– Outcomes measurement– Indicator development– Reporting– Research & evaluation priorities– Programme & policy evaluation
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Model Development
• Input on preferred outcomes/ how achieved:– Current knowledge of issues– Existing research– Expert opinion
MAF Biosecurity Social Marketing Intervention Model
Increased willingness to take preventive
actionIncreased stakeholder
willingness to participate in partnerships
Increased base level tolerance / support for
effective incursions mitigation
Increased willingness to take mitigation
action
Increased appropriate preventive behaviore.g. Declaring items
Increased appropriate
mitigation behavior
Increased stakeholder partnership initiatives
Increased support for specific incursion
mitigation
Increased Biosecurity
Reduction in biosecurity incursions
Effective incursion mitigation (eradication or management)
Increased under-standing of what to look for and how to respond if you see
something suspicious
Increased understanding of personal action
needed for effective mitigation
Increased under-standing of need for
biosecurity mitigations measures
Increased under-standing of what not to bring into NZ and what to
declare
Increased understanding of ballast water and
hull cleaning procedures
Increased stakeholder
understanding of the problem and
solutions
Increased Public understanding of biosecurity
Increased Stakeholders’understanding of biosecurity
Increased Inward travellers’understanding of biosecurity
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Getting it Wrong
• Key issues:– Measuring the underspecified– Continually evolving– Wide range of potential risks– Diverse sectors– Cost of data collection– Acknowledged difficulty in measuring social
marketing campaigns
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Getting it straight!(Informed Logic)
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Model Assessment
• Assessment of assumptions by:– Existing research (not conclusive)– Expert opinion
• And…
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Something New
• Creativity groups
• Not ‘new’ as such– New to New Zealand– Beyond projectives, focus groups
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The Difference
• Ideas generation
• New angles
• Richer understanding
• Testing the hard to define
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Once More with Feeling• The theory
– Hierarchy of emotionsHigh Reason
Feelings
Emotions
Basic LifeRegulation
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Theory to Practice• Intuitive
• Evolving practice
• What’s new?– Creative thinking/ recruitment– Atmosphere– Set no boundaries – big picture– Moderation – low key, empathetic– Large breakout groups
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Techniques
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Techniques
18
Techniques
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Working it out…(Informed Logic Outcomes)
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MAF Biosecurity Social Marketing Intervention Model
Increased willingness to take preventive
actionIncreased stakeholder
willingness to participate in partnerships
Increased base level tolerance / support for
effective incursions mitigation
Increased willingness to take mitigation
action
Increased appropriate preventive behaviore.G. Declaring items
Increased appropriate
mitigation behavior
Increased stakeholder partnership initiatives
Increased support for specific incursion
mitigation
Increased Biosecurity
Reduction in biosecurity incursions
Effective incursion mitigation (eradication or management)
Increased under-standing of what to look for and how to respond if you see
something suspicious
Increased understanding of personal action
needed for effective mitigation
Increased under-standing of need for
biosecurity mitigations measures
Increased under-standing of what not to bring into NZ and what to
declare
Increased understanding of ballast water and
hull cleaning procedures
Increased stakeholder
understanding of the problem and
solutions
Increased Public understanding of biosecurity
Increased Stakeholders’understanding of biosecurity
Increased Inward Travelers’understanding of biosecurity
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Model Refinement
A Travellers/ countries of origin/ sea portsB StakeholdersC NZ Public-mitigation measuresD NZ Public-personal actionE Business, importers, productionF EducationG Environment
Increased under-standing of what to look for and how to respond if you see
something suspicious
Increased understanding of personal action
needed for effective mitigation
Increased under-standing of need for
biosecurity mitigations measures
Increased under-standing of what not to bring into NZ and what to
declare
Increased Understanding of Ballast Water and
Hull Cleaning Procedures
Increased stakeholder
understanding of the problem and
solutions
Increased understanding of ballast water and hull cleaning
procedures
ShippingSailorsYachtiesCruise Ships
Increased under-standing of what not to bring into NZ and what
to declare
Travellers-Casual-Frequent-Sport-Business-O/S students-Recreation-Ethnic groups-Friends/relativesIncreased under-
standing of what to look for and how to respond
if you see something suspicious
‘Responsible’ NZersElderlyChildrenGardenersProduction SectorEnvironmentalistsIncreased stakeholder
understanding of the problem and solutions
Enforcement, Educative & Eradication Agencies
Increased under-standing of need for
biosecurity mitigations measures
Ignorant/Unaware General public
Increased understanding of personal action needed
for effective mitigation
Travel agentsAirline staffTourism BoardEmbassiesInternational airports
Audiences
Increased Public understanding of biosecurity
Increased Stakeholders’ understanding of biosecurity
Increased Inward Travellers’understanding of biosecurity
Increase Information Sources in Countries of Origin
Increased Business/Importers/Primary Producers understanding of biosecurity
Increased Environmental Groups understanding of biosecurity
Increased Media/Educatorsunderstanding of Biosecurity
Increased Public understanding of biosecurity
Increased Stakeholders’understanding of biosecurity
Increased Inward Travellers’ understanding of biosecurity
Increased Permanent Recent Arrivals understanding of biosecurity
Additional Audiences
Increased Sea Port Users understanding of biosecurity
Increased willingness to take preventive
actionIncreased stakeholder
willingness to participate in partnerships
Increased base level tolerance / support for
effective incursions mitigation
Increased willingness to take mitigation
action
Heavy penaltiesBorder controlEducation
Increased willingness to take preventive action
Increased stakeholder willingness to participate in
partnerships Partnership/cooperationCare for your countryEconomic benefit
Increased base level tolerance / support for
effective incursions mitigation
Increased willingness to take mitigation action
Health and economic repercussionsFuture generationsCare for your countryPartnership
Actions/ Messages
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Revolution? No Evolution!
26Increased NZ public understanding of biosecurity
Increased awareness ofWhat not to bring and what
To declare
Increased awareness ofPersonal action needed for
Effective mitigation
Increased awareness ofNeed for mitigation and
management
IncreasedSupport by
Individuals forBorder
Regulation thatPersonally
Affects them
Increased Local supportFor specificMitigationactivities
IncreasedNational
Support forSpecific
Mitigationactivities
Increased awareness of what to look for and how to respond if aperson sees something suspicious
Increased appropriatePreventivebehavior
Increased willingnessTo take preventive
action
Increased willingnessTo take mitigation
action
Increased stakeholderWillingness to
participate
Increased appropriateMitigationbehaviour
Increased appropriateStakeholder
activity
Pests within New Zealand are managedHarmful and potentially harmful organisms do not crossNew Zealand’s borders
Improved Biosecurity
Well supportedMitigation activities
Increased awareness ofNeed for strong borders
IncreasedSupport for
StrongBorder
regulation
Biosecurity Logic Model
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The next step…(Implemented Logic)
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Implemented Logic
• Informed by:– Empirical evidence attributed to programme– Expert opinion– Tailored research
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Role of Research
• In-depth understanding – attitudes, motivations, behaviour
• Segmentation to manage priority audiences and direct resources
• Direct communication• Measure on-going performance of
programme
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• Personal importance of biosecurity (e.g. 31% very important)
• Importance of biosecurity to New Zealand
• Knowledge of key actions to enhance New Zealand biosecurity
• Increased appropriate preventive behaviour (from a range of actions)
• Increased support for strong border regulation (from a range of actions
Increased awareness ofWhat not to bring and what
To declare
IncreasedSupport by
Individuals forBorder
Regulation thatPersonally
Affects them
Increased appropriatePreventivebehavior
Increased willingnessTo take preventive
action
Harmful and potentially harmful organisms do not crossNew Zealand’s borders
Increased awareness ofNeed for strong borders
IncreasedSupport for
StrongBorder
regulationIncreased awareness of what to look for and how to respond if a
person sees something suspicious
Measures: Prevention
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• Support of increased national mitigation action (e.g. 29% strong support)
• Willingness to accept localised mitigation activities
• Awareness of personal responsibility
• Willingness to take specific mitigation activities (specific actions)
Increased awareness ofPersonal action needed for
Effective mitigation
Increased awareness ofNeed for mitigation and
management
Increased Local supportFor specificMitigationactivities
IncreasedNational
Support forSpecific
Mitigationactivities
Increased willingnessTo take mitigation
action
Increased appropriateMitigationbehaviour
Pests within New Zealand are managed
Well supportedMitigation activities
Increased awareness of what to look for and how to respond if aperson sees something suspicious
Measures: Mitigation
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Increased NZ public understanding of biosecurity
Increased awareness ofWhat not to bring and what
To declare
Increased awareness ofPersonal action needed for
Effective mitigation
Increased awareness ofNeed for mitigation and
management
Increased awareness ofNeed for strong borders
Develop AWARENESS ofBiosecurity as a consumerconcern
GOAL:Create reasons for actionand desire to get involved
Personal Relevance
Programme Launch
Source: Social Change Media http://media.socialchange.net.au/strategy/
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Action PlanProvide actions that people can take to support biosecurity outcomes –
DESIRE, SKILLS, OPTIMISM and FACILITATION
PRE-BORDER: Appropriate preventive behaviour
BORDER: Preventive behaviour and compliance with regulations
POST-BORDER: Take individual action to support biosecurity campaigns and take action in mitigation activities
IncreasedSupport by
Individuals forBorder
Regulation thatPersonally
Affects them
Increased Local supportFor specificMitigationactivities
IncreasedNational
Support forSpecific
Mitigationactivities
Increased awareness of what to look for and how to respond if aperson sees something suspicious
Increased appropriatePreventivebehavior
Increased willingnessTo take preventive
action
Increased willingnessTo take mitigation
action
Increased stakeholderWillingness to
participate
Increased appropriateMitigationbehaviour
Increased appropriateStakeholder
activityWell supported
Mitigation activities
IncreasedSupport for
StrongBorder
regulation
34
Only time will tell….(Iterative Process)
35
Working it Out… Again
• Iterative process
• Planned Logic Model
• Informed Logic Model
• Implemented Logic Model
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We can work it out…(Model in Practice)
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- Underspecified/ risks- Diverse sectors
- Hard to measure- Cost to measure
Model developed from existing:- Knowledge- Research- Expert opinion
Model tested by:- Existing research- Expert opinion
Research- Ideas generation-Test model
Model informed by:- Empirical data- Expert opinion
Research-Deep understanding-Potent communication-Prioritise-Measure
Model Development
Model Refinement
Model Implementation
Enhanced: - Outcomes- Stakeholderconsultation
- Planning/ decision making
- Implementation
Assists in:- Communication- Reporting- Measurement- Indicatordevelopment
- Evaluation- Priority setting
Impacts for Social
Marketing
Planned Logic Implemented LogicInformed Logic
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