A near-real time satellite

tool for monitoring and

mapping ecological impacts

in Fynbos

Jasper Slingsby, Adam Wilson, Glenn Moncrieff

Biodiversity Planning Forum, Cape St Francis

22 June 2018

Remote sensing tools

for assessing ecological

conditionJasper Slingsby, Glenn Moncrieff, Nasiphi Ntshanga, Alastair Potts, Adam Wilson Biodiversity Planning Forum, Wilderness

9 June 2016

Take home messages from

2016…

• Mapping ecological condition at national scale is very doable… to some degree.

Issues:

• You can’t map condition without knowing what it is first… (i.e. veg type and desired state)

• We need a large database of reference sites representing different levels of ecological degradation…

Take home messages from

2018…• We’ve found a way around needing a large database

of reference sites… (although they’re still useful)

• We can monitor and map changes in ecological condition in near-real time (~every 16-32 days)

• The method works very well in Fynbos, but needs further testing and development to expand to other biomes…

Near-real time satellite vegetation monitoring

www.globalforestwatch.org

• Decades of free remote-sensing products

• Amazing new tools and computing resources

e.g. Google Earth Engine

Near-real time satellite vegetation monitoring

Why is this cool?

• Compliance monitoring

• Global change monitoring (land cover change,

drought impacts, invasive species, etc)

– i.e. ecosystem condition

• Land surface processes

– Carbon accounting

– Hydrology

Across large extents in near-real time!!!

How to detect change?

www.globalforestwatch.org

How to detect forest change?

NDVI = vegetation greenness

What about non-forest ecosystems?

What about non-forest ecosystems?

www.globalforestwatch.org

Forest gain and loss?

What is the model for non-

forest ecosystems?

NDVI = vegetation greenness

?

Kogelberg Fire near Cape Town

Fynbos?

First 70 days of postfire regeneration, Jonkershoek, South

Africa

NDVI recovery

Wilson et al. 2015

NDVI recovery

Wilson et al. 2015

NDVI recovery

λ = Rate of recovery

γ + α = Max Potential

NDVI

(vegetation cover)

A = Seasonality

Wilson et al. 2015

NDVI recovery

34°S

33°S

32°S

31°S

0.4 0.6

Maximum NDVI ( g + a )

18°E 20°E 22°E 24°E

34°S

33°S

32°S

31°S

0 10 20 30

Recovery Time (years)

34°S

33°S

32°S

31°S

0.4 0.6

Maximum NDVI ( g + a )

18°E 20°E 22°E 24°E

34°S

33°S

32°S

31°S

0 10 20 30

Recovery Time (years)

34°S

33°S

32°S

31°S

0.4 0.6

Maximum NDVI ( g + a )

18°E 20°E 22°E 24°E

34°S

33°S

32°S

31°S

0 10 20 30

Recovery Time (years)

• Explore spatial

variation in these

parameters

• Model parameters

~ Climate + Soils etc.

• Predict!!!

Prediction

Thresholds

(Confidence Interval)

Predict NDVI recovery for a location

with given climate, soils, etc.

Invasive plants

Fire, clearing,

drought, etc

Predict NDVI recovery for a location

with given climate, soils, etc.

Prediction

Thresholds

(Confidence Interval)

Cape Peninsula Case Study

• 16-day combined MODIS NDVI (~270m pixels)

• February 2000 to the end of May 2014 (before the drought)

• Projected to end of July 2017

• Quantified deviance above or below predicted

Silvermine - below

Silvermine - below

Silvermine - below

New development Natural vegetation?

Silvermine - below

Silvermine - above

Silvermine - above

Silvermine - above

Cape of Good Hope

Cape of Good Hope

• Easily flags– Alien invasion

– High plant mortality

– Vegetation clearing

– Slow post-fire recovery

• Next steps– Validate across whole

biome

– Map drought impacts

– Map invaded areas

– Explore automated diagnosis

Web user interface

Navigate Mark Record Annotate

Field inspection app

Conclusions• Satellite tools have great potential

• “Ecosystem models” negate the need for extensive reference sites

• We have a model that works well for Fynbos

– Developing a model for some other ecosystems (e.g. Thicket) should be relatively straightforward

BUT

• Rolling out a publicly available tool requires (funding) a support team…

Thank You!

• South African National Parks,

CapeNature, PlanetLabs, UN Global

Pulse

• Nicky Allsopp, John Silander, Vernon

Visser and others at SEEC