CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

Amulti-tieredADCIRC-basedstormsurgeandwavepredictionsystem

BrianBlanton,RenaissanceComputingInstitute,UNC-ChapelHill

RickLuettich,InstituteofMarineSciences,UNC-ChapelHill,co-PI

JasonFleming,SeahorseCoastalConsulting,ASGSdeveloper,ADCIRCBootcamp organizer

JessicaSmith,DepartmentofMarineSciences,UNC-ChapelHill,MSCandidateGraduateStudent

ChrisCalloway,RenaissanceComputingInstitute,UNC-ChapelHill,softwareengineer

CrystalFulcher,InstituteofMarineSciences,UNC-ChapelHill,ADCIRCgriddevelopment

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• Extend/advanceAdcirc SurgeGuidanceSystem(ASGS)• ImplementnewADCIRCgridformorecomprehensiveregionalcoverage• Statistical/probabilistichurricanetracks• Statisticalstormsurgepredictions

• SupportADCIRCusersworld-wide

MainProjectActivities

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• Dr.JasonFleming,SeahorseCoastalConsulting

• HeldatUSArmyEngineerResearchandDevelopmentCenter(ERDC)CoastalandHydraulicsLab(CHL)inVicksburg,MS

• 2-4May2016

• Maintopics:• GriddevelopmentwithSMS• ADCIRCsetup,simulations,anddiagnostics• DeployingtheASGSforforecastingapplications.

• 50+in-personand7virtualviawebinar

• 8studentsattended:• NorthCarolinaStateUniversityx2• UniversityofCentralFlorida• Kunsan University(Korea)x4• RPSGroup

ADCIRCBootcamp

• 9professionals:• Stantec x3• TaylorEngineering• WoodsHoleGroup• FloridaDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection• AppliedTechnology&Management• RansomEnvironmental• USACEERDCCHL

EndUserEngagement

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• Dr.BrianBatten,Dewberry,supportingFEMA

• Inundationgridsforpost-stormdamageassessments

• UNCcomputeda”rapid”Matthewhindcast withGAHMvortexmodelandobservedtrack

• “InthedevelopmentofFEMA’sNorthCarolinaMatthewGeospatialDamageAssessment,ASGS’sHurricaneMatthewsimulationwasfoundtoprovidethebestsourceofsurgeelevationsascomparedtoobservations.TheRENCIMatthewsurgeelevationswereusedtoestablishflooddepthinformationtofacilitateinitialbuildingdamageassessmentstoaidtheFEMAdisasterresponsebyDewberryundertheirDepartmentofHomelandSecurityRemoteSensingContractforIncidentManagement.”

HurricaneMatthew

EndUserEngagement

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• DougBausch,ScienceAdvisor,PacificDisasterCenter,Hawaii

• “Iknowitisabusytime,butwearesupportingourcolleaguesintheBahamas (NEMAandotheragencies)andareveryinterestedinyourproducts. SpecificallytheADCIRCsurgemodeling…..”

• FEMA HQ

• ADCIRCoutputmorerelevantthanNHC’soutputforrecoverypurposes

HurricaneMatthew

EndUserEngagement

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• Science&OperationsOfficer,NWSNewport/MoreheadCityNC

• RecentwinterstormHelena• "ItappearstheADCIRCunderestimated thewater

levelsatCGHatterastoday,byroughly0.5ft."

• “ThankyouforquicklygettingNCCERAbackonlineonFridayevening.Acollectionoftidehydrographsfrom3sitessubjecttowaterlevelrisesinN/NNW/NNEwindeventsisalsoattached.CERAseemedtoperformwithinabout0.5ft ofobservationsatHatterasVillage.WehaveaNCstaterungaugeatCedarIslandthatiscurrentlymalfunctioning,sowedidnotgetanyobservationstherewhereCERAmostlyfocusedthehighestsurgepotentialforthisevent.”

WinterStormActivities

EndUserEngagement

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• SeniorHydrologist,NWSWestGulfRiverForecastCenter

• SabineRiverandPearlRiverflooding• “AsthisfloodapproachestheGulfinEastTexas,it’sgettingoutofourdomain.AswellassignificantimpactshappeninginOrangeTexas

thathavenorealmodeling availableandreallyshouldbeperformedbyacoastalmodel.IsthereanythoughtsorplansorpossiblyanycompletedrunsthatcanbeperformedinADCIRC?“

• WewereabletoprovideguidanceinformationfromASGSrunningontheGulfofMexicoto“unanticipated”end-users.

Inlandfloodingreachingcoastalareas

EndUserEngagement

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• ImplementedNOAAHSOFSgridforASGSpriortoHurricaneMatthew• ProvidedbyNOAACSDL• ComprehensiveUSEastcoastandGoMex coverage• ConsideringsplittingthegridintoeastcoastandGulfofMexicoparts.

ADCIRCgrid

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

NOAAHSOFSGrid(1.8Mnodes)

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• GeneratedourownSQLdatabaseofallhurricaneforecastmodels,alignedwithbest-tracktimes• Enablescomprehensiveerroranalysis

Probabilistictrackgeneration HurricaneIsabel(2003)AllModels

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• GeneratedourownSQLdatabaseofallhurricaneforecastmodels,alignedwithbest-tracktimes• CurrentlyusingcrossandalongtrackerrorsforOFCLmodel• ThisisanextensionofDavisetal(2010),whousedonlycross-trackerrors

Probabilistictrackgeneration

SeeposterbyJ.Smith,presentedatAMS2017StudentSymposiuminSeattle

9x9ensemblesetforHurricaneIsabel(2003)

Davis,J.,Paramygin,V.,Forrest,D.,andSheng,Y.(2010).Towardtheprobabilisticsimulationofstormsurgeandinundationinalimited-resourceenvironment.Mon.WeatherRev.,138(7):2953–2974.

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• Real-timeMatthewExperiments• NHCConsensus+/- Directionandspeederrors

Probabilistictrackgeneration

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• Real-timeMatthewExperiments• NHCConsensus+/- Directionandspeederrors

• IndividualEnsembleMembers• “Left”membersmorethreatening

Probabilistictrackgeneration

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• Real-timeMatthewExperiments• NHCConsensus+/- Directionandspeederrors

• IndividualEnsembleMembers• “Left”membersmorehazardous• Exceedence LevelsindicateGA/SCcoastsubstantiallythreatened

Probabilistictrackgeneration

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

SurrogateModelforADCIRC(ADCIRC_Lite)LeastSquares,ResponseSurface(ADCIRC_Lite)

Kriging

ArtificialNeuralNetworks

StormPopulation

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• PreviouslydevelopedResponseSurfaceMethodstatisticalmodeldeployedtowebfordissemination• dashboards.renci.org:3000• Allowsconcurrent,multi-useraccess

WebdeploymentofStatisticalModel

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• PreviouslydevelopedResponseSurfaceMethodstatisticalmodeldeployedtowebfordissemination• dashboards.renci.org:3000• Allowsconcurrent,multi-useraccess• Changeparametersofmodelviasliders

• RadiustoMaxWinds• ForwardSpeed• Etc.

WebdeploymentofStatisticalModel

ResearchWorkandAccomplishments

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• ADCIRC/ASGSEnduseroutreach,education,andsupport• Broadenuseofcriticalhazardassessmentmethod

• Advanced,state-of-the-sciencereal-timestormsurgeandwavepredictions• viaASGS,CERAweboutlets• MorecomprehensiveregionalcoverageofADCIRCgrid

• Enablealternative,rapid,probabilisticwaterlevels• CurrentlytargetedatNCcoastforhigh-resolution

AnticipatedProjectImpact

CRC2ndAnnualMeetingFeb.1-3,2017TheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

• ContinueASGSandADCIRCgriddevelopment,education,andoutreach• Supportend-usersduringtropical(andnon-tropical)events• Extendprobabilistictrackgeneratortoincorporateintensity(maximumwindspeedandcentralpressure)andstormsize(radiustomaximumwinds)parameters• IntegratetrackgeneratorwithWebdashboard

ProposedFollow-onWork