A multi-model approach to better understanding the ......A multi-model approach to better understanding the robustness of management of Pacific hake to environmental variability Kristin

A multi-model approach to better understanding the robustness of

management of Pacific hake to environmental variability

Kristin Marshall1, Nis Jacobsen1,2, Isaac Kaplan1, Kirstin Holsman3, and Grant Adams4,

Northwest Fisheries Science Center

1Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2National Research Council 3Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 4University of Washington

What is climate-robust fisheries management?

Resilient OR Responsive

Benson et al. 2018 Fish and Fisheries

Responsivecatch limits

Resilient harvest control rules

How do we know if we’ve achieved climate-robust management?

• Specify goals, objectives AND measure performance

• Test robustness to a wide range of uncertainties

MSE as a collaborative, iterative process

SurveysAssessmentDecision Rule

Pacific Hake Fishery and Management• International Pacific Whiting Treaty

(2003)• 74/26 percent of annual quota allocated

to US/CA• Harvest Control Rule F-SPR 40:10

Hake

West Coast US Groundfish Landings

Hake biomass relative to unfishedFis

hing m

ortal

ity ra

te

10% 40% 100%

More fish, younger fish, in US than Canada

Agostini et al. 2006Malick et al. in review

Co-created (managers, industry, and scientists) goals for this iteration of the Hake MSE:

• Evaluate the performance of current hake management procedures under alternative hypotheses about current and future environmental conditions

• Better understand the effects of hake distribution and movement on both countries’ ability to catch fish

• Better understand how fishing in each country affects the availability of fish to the other country in future years

Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hake

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center

• List item 1• List item 2


Operating Model Estimation Model

Management model

Spatially explicit

Environ. drivers

Trophic dynamics

Prev. Hake MSE model

X X

Current Hake MSE model

X X X X

Atlantis ecosystem model

X X X In progress X

CEATTLE-Hake

X X X X

Generalized closed-loop simulation model for MSE

Operating modelHypotheses about how the biological system and fishery operates

Observation modelData generation from fishery and survey

Estimation modelSimulates stock assessment

Management modelTranslates assessment model output to catch advice for the next year

10

Climate change inspired movement scenarios

• Linearly increase the maximum movement rate over time

• Linearly decrease the proportion of fish returning to US to spawn

• Compare 3 scenarios – no change to movement, moderate increase in movement, and dramatic increase in movement

Spawning biomass distribution in the future

Canada

USA

Jacobsen et al. in prep

Status QuoModerate Increase

Dramatic Increase

Median Catch (thousand mt)

Average annual variability in Catch

Coastwide performance metrics

1) No climate change effect

2) Moderate increase in movement

3) Dramatic increase in movement

Proportion of years with fishery closure

Jacobsen et al. in prepIncreasing movement

Conclusions thus far• Current management procedure shows sensitivity to dramatic changes in movement rate

(relatively robust to small changes)

• If model-assumed movement rates occurred, status quo management would lead to lower total catch, higher variation in catch, and lower spawning biomass

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14






Management model

Spatially explicit

Environ. drivers

Trophic dynamics

Prev. Hake MSE model

X X


X X X X


X X X In progress X

CEATTLE-Hake

X X X X

Ecosystem-Based Harvest Control Rules for Norwegian and US Ecosystems


Kaplan et al. in reviewHake biomass relative to unfished

Hake

Fish

ing m

ortal

ity ra

te10% 40% 100%

Constant harvest at FMSY

Threshold harvest rule on hake

Hake threshold rule


Kaplan et al. in review






Management model

Spatially explicit

Environ. drivers

Trophic dynamics

Previous MSE model

X X


X X X X


X X X In progress X

CEATTLE-Hake

X X X X

CEATTLE Multi-species model

Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)

Arrowtooth flounder(Atheresthes stomias)

Pacific cod(Gadus macrocephalus)

Eastern Bering Sea, Alaska, USA

W@Age~f(Temperature)Pred/prey~f(Temperature)

Climate-Enhanced, Age-based model with Temperature-specific Trophic Linkages and Energetics


Holsman et al.

CEATTLE-EBS: Options


• Empirical diets• Bioenergetics

Mortality

• Empirical• VonB with Temp

Weight @ Age

• Climate-S/R• S/R• mean R

Rec

• Climate ABC• MMSY• MEY• SPR• Aggregate MSY

HCRs

Holsman et al.

https://github.com/grantdadams/Rceattle

https://github.com/grantdadams/Rceattle

Potential for CEATTLE-Hake as operating model


• Empirical diets

• Bioenergetics

Mortality

VonB with Temp

Weight @ Age

• Climate-S/R• S/R

Rec






Management model

Spatially explicit

Environ. drivers

Trophic dynamics

Previous MSE model

X X


X X X X


X X X In progress X

CEATTLE-Hake

X X X X

Is current management strategy for Pacific hake climate-ready?

• Testing robustness of current management to dramatic changes in environment is a first step

• Single-species spatial model suggests some resilience

• Testing robustness to a wider range of uncertainties is underway

Thank you!

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Pag

[email protected]

A multi-model approach to better understanding the robustness of management of Pacific hake to environmental variabilityWhat is climate-robust fisheries management?Slide Number 3How do we know if we’ve achieved climate-robust management?MSE as a collaborative, iterative processPacific Hake Fishery and ManagementMore fish, younger fish, in US than CanadaCo-created (managers, industry, and scientists) goals for this iteration of the Hake MSE:Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeGeneralized closed-loop simulation model for MSEClimate change inspired movement scenariosSpawning biomass distribution in the futureCoastwide performance metricsConclusions thus farTools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeEcosystem-Based Harvest Control Rules for Norwegian and US EcosystemsSlide Number 17Tools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeCEATTLE Multi-species modelCEATTLE-EBS: OptionsPotential for CEATTLE-Hake as operating modelTools for evaluating climate-robust management for hakeIs current management strategy for Pacific hake climate-ready?Thank you!

Documents

A multi-model approach to better understanding the ......A multi-model approach to better understanding the robustness of management of Pacific hake to environmental variability Kristin