A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour

Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development

David Mell, NERIP

TWRI Modelling and Forecasting Workshop

28 January 2008

Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development – a specific case

Starting point is the framework used for the RSS Provides linkages between

• The economy

• The size of the resident population and its housing requirement

Original framework was not transparent• Originators (cebr) provided outputs only

• Framework has been inferred

A Modelling Framework

GVA GrowthAssumptions

Economic Scenario

The growth assumptions will vary from one sector to another. Applied to the current economy, the assumptions create a future economic scenario. The scenario is simply an expression of the mix of the economy in future years.



Economic Scenario

ProductivityAssumptions

Productivity = GVA/FTE. The productivity assumptions represent views about how each sector’s productivity will change over time. In conjunction with the economic scenario, the productivity assumptions determine the size of the labour force in each sector.

Labour Force Required by Sector



Economic Scenario



Sector SkillsAssumptions

Labour Force Required bySkills Levels

Sector skills assumptions represent the profiles of skills required in each sector. At its simplest this is % with Level 1, % with Level 2,… etc. Together with the Labour Force requirement the sector skills assumption generates a view of the labour force required by Skills levels



Economic Scenario





Spatial Analysis

Labour Force by Location

The Spatial Analysis is based on notions of the likelihood of sectors being located in particular places. Typically this involves the use of location quotients. Spatial analysis provides a view of where the labour force will be located.



Economic Scenario






Spatial Analysis

Commuting Patterns

Labour Force by Residence

Commuting patterns provide the link between where people work and where they live.



Economic Scenario





Population Skills Base


Spatial Analysis


Migration

Migration provides a balancing mechanism between the labour force that is required and that which can be provided from the regional population.

Commuting Patterns



Economic Scenario






MigrationLabour Force by Location

Spatial Analysis


Resident Population by Location

The location of the labour force by residence, allied to migration effects are primary determinants of where the resident population lives.

Commuting Patterns



Economic Scenario






MigrationLabour Force by Location

Spatial Analysis


Resident Population by Location

Housing Requirements by Location

The size of the resident population determines the amount of housing required by location.

Commuting Patterns

Comments on this framework and modelling generally

It is a modelling framework not a model• Provides a way of conceptualising connections in the

real world and promotes shared understanding

• Helps “policy wonks” and “technical nerds” communicate

• Parts may be implemented as actual models

Framework and models are purposeful • How pictures are drawn and models constructed

depends on what we are trying to do

• Demography: planning housing vs education delivery

• Framework might have new boxes and different connections depending on what we are trying to do

Frameworks like this are our best hope for integrating LEAs to a regional strategy

Documents

A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour