A Look at the European Consumer Credit Market

Jurgita BucyteJurgita BucyteAdviserAdviserStatistics and Economic AffairsStatistics and Economic Affairs

ALB National Conference, BucharestALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 201018 November 2010

Agenda

About EurofinasEurofinas Market EvolutionConsumer CreditConsumer Credit for Personal ConsumptionVehicle FinanceConsumer Credit Market in 2010

About Eurofinas

The voice ofThe voice of specialised consumer specialised consumer credit providerscredit providers at European levelat European level

It currently representsIt currently represents 18 Member 18 Member AssociationsAssociations

In turn bringing together more thanIn turn bringing together more than 764 764 finance and credit institutionsfinance and credit institutions

Employing overEmploying over 78 000 people78 000 people

EurofinasEurofinas membersmembers

Eurofinas Market Evolution

Total Eurofinas lending – period on period growth ratesTotal Eurofinas lending – period on period growth rates

Adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

-2.9%

0.5%

Growth rates for new credit compare the first 6 months of the year for biannual figures while they compare 12 months for annual figures

1.5%

-1.7%

Outstandings New credit-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Xx

Dec-09

-15.2%

-3.8%

Total new creditTotal new credit

Eurofinas Market

Mortgages

Industrial credit

Vehicle finance

CC for pers consumption

Source: Eurofinas 2009 Annual and 2010 Biannual Surveys

-15.2%

373 B€373 B€316 B€316 B€

191 931 163 572

102 329 88 502

30 285 23 590 40 263

48 126

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2008 2009

Mil€

82 398 79 283

44 762 43 871

12 001 11 322 19 479 21 412

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

H1 2009 H1 2010

Mil €

-1.7%

159 B€159 B€ 156 B€156 B€

New consumer credit lending & market share per Eurofinas New consumer credit lending & market share per Eurofinas member in H1 2010member in H1 2010

45% (*)

Eurofinas Market

(*) Eurofinas Market Share calculated excluding NO, DK, RO

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

BE CZ DE DK ES FI FR IT LT NO PT RO SE UK

Mil€

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Eurofinas cc Outstandings Total national cc Outstandings Market share

Total new Total new consumer creditconsumer credit by by product type (2009)product type (2009)

230 Bil €230 Bil €

Personal loans RevolvingNon-auto Pos New car finance PosUsed car finance PoS Other vehicle PoS

8%

20%

13%

36%

22%

1%

Eurofinas Market

Source: Eurofinas Annual Surveys, Eurostat

Consumer Credit for Personal Consumption

-18%

-13%

-8%

-3%

2%

7%

12%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Consumer Credit for Personal Consumption

Private Consumption

Consumer credit vs private consumption – Consumer credit vs private consumption – period on period growth ratesperiod on period growth rates

Consumer Credit for Personal Consumption

New credit – period on period New credit – period on period growth ratesgrowth rates

New credit – growth per member New credit – growth per member (2009 vs 2008) (2009 vs 2008)

Growth rates for new credit compare the first 6 months of the year for biannual figures while they compare 12 months for annual figures

-12.9%-14.8%-18.7%

-11.8%

Personal loansRevolving

Non-auto PoSOverall

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

ES UK PT CZ FR SE NL IT BE FI DE

Personal LoansRevolving credit

Non-auto Pos

New credit – period on period New credit – period on period growth ratesgrowth rates

New credit – growth per member New credit – growth per member (H1 2010 vs H1 (H1 2010 vs H1

2009)2009)

Growth rates for new credit compare the first 6 months of the year for biannual figures while they compare 12 months for annual figures

Adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

-3.9%

-4.6%

-4.7%

Personal LoansRevolving credit

Non-auto Pos

-3.5%-5.9%

-3.7%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

UK PT

FI CZ NO DK BE LT IT ES DE FR SE

-3.8%

Consumer Credit for Personal Consumption

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Personal loans

RevolvingNon-auto PoS

Overall

-6.5%

Consumer car finance – new Consumer car finance – new credit granted period on period credit granted period on period

growthgrowth

Consumer car finance – Consumer car finance – growth per member growth per member

(2009 vs 2008)(2009 vs 2008)

Vehicle Finance

Growth rates for new credit compare the first 6 months of the year for biannual figures while they compare 12 months for annual figures

-10.8%

-5.9%-18%

-13%

-8%

-3%

2%

7%

12%

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

New cars Used cars

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

NL ES FI IT CZ UK BE PT FR

NO SE DE

New Cars Used Cars

Consumer car finance – new Consumer car finance – new credit granted period on period credit granted period on period

growthgrowth

Consumer car finance – Consumer car finance – growth per member growth per member

(H1 2010 vs H1 2009)(H1 2010 vs H1 2009)

Vehicle Finance

Growth rates for new credit compare the first 6 months of the year for biannual figures while they compare 12 months for annual figures

Adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

-6.0%

-4.9%

-5.1%

-3.4%

-18%

-13%

-8%

-3%

2%

7%

12%

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

New cars Used cars

-90%

-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

BE DE IT DK FI CZ

FR ES PT NO UK SE

New Cars Used Cars

Economic Context

GDP growth and household GDP growth and household final consumption expenditure final consumption expenditure

(2009)(2009)

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%FI SE IT DE UK CZ ES BE FR PT NO

Real GDP Growth

Real Household Consumption Growth

Household saving rate (2009)Household saving rate (2009)

Source: Eurostat

%

0

4

8

12

16

20

UK NO PT FI ES CZ SE IT FR BE DE

2007 2008 2009

Consumer Credit Market in 2010

There is support to the view that the economic recovery is There is support to the view that the economic recovery is broadening….broadening…. Consumer confidence is advancing Consumer confidence is advancing While disposable income remains weak, the decline in the household saving While disposable income remains weak, the decline in the household saving rate from its peak during the crisis, subdued inflation and stabilising labour-rate from its peak during the crisis, subdued inflation and stabilising labour-market conditions bode well for consumer spending in the near termmarket conditions bode well for consumer spending in the near term

...however uncertainty remains high...however uncertainty remains highSo far lending growth to households has remained very moderate So far lending growth to households has remained very moderate Poor expectations for new car registrations in H1 2010 in the main European Poor expectations for new car registrations in H1 2010 in the main European marketsmarkets

A Look at the European Consumer Credit Market

Jurgita BucyteJurgita BucyteAdviserAdviserStatistics and Economic AffairsStatistics and Economic Affairs

ALB National Conference, BucharestALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 201018 November 2010