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A Longitudinal Analysis of the College Transfer Pathway at McMaster
Karen MenardYing Liu
Jin ZhangMarzena Kielar
Office of Institutional Research and Analysis, McMaster University
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Pathways in Higher Education Conference, Toronto, January 27, 2012
Overview of the Literature•College transfer students are disadvantaged in terms of degree attainment. The impacting factors are:
•Cultural
•Goal of education
•Education cost
•Social economic background
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•College transfer students are more likely to be non-traditional (older, part-time, commuter)
•More likely to drop out than traditional students
•Outside environmental factors play a more significant role than to traditional students
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Overview of the Literature
•Further factors affecting college transfer students:
•Challenges: academic standards, university size, location, and competition among students
•Opportunities: faculty/staff advice, career counselling, transfer readiness, and graduation requirements
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Overview of the Literature
Research Focus
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•What are the differences between college transfer and direct entry
•What factors impact the progression of college transfer compared to direct entry
•Longitudinal perspective: factors affecting college transfer students
Methodology
•Eight cohorts of undergraduate students entering directly from high school and college (2000 - 2007)
•Each cohort followed from entrance to 2009/10
•Both time-invariant and time-variant variables are included
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Potential Impacting Factors
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– Average grade– Student loans– Student grants
Time invariant variables
Time variant variables
Demographic Distribution of Data
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Progression Status as of 2009
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Graduation by Term Distribution
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Probability of Persistence
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Direct Entry
College Transfer
What are the differences between college transfer vs. direct entry
• 2000 to 2006 cohort (followed for at least 4 years)
• 1612 from college, 28680 direct from high school
• Multinomial logistic regression model
• Dependent variable: student outcome with three nominal categorical levels: graduation, dropout, and persistence (reference level)
• Tested various models• Model: further control gender, admission average, and financial support
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(1)
Results• Students with any of following features are more likely to
graduate:
• Younger students
• Female
• Full-time
• From Ontario
• Receiving higher amount of loan
• Higher session average grade
• College transfer
• Model global test: Χ2 (LR)=14331, df=52, p<0.0001, Pseudo R2 =34.3%
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Major factors affecting college transfer students over time
•1903 from college (2000 to 2007 cohorts)
•Time variant discrete proportion hazard models
•Events: graduation and dropout, persistence as right censoring
•Dependent variable: number of registered terms
• Independent variables: all 12 variables including time variant ones
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– Average grade– Student loans– Student grants
Time invariant variables
Time variant variables
• College transfer students are more likely to drop out if they have the following features:
• Older
• Part-time
• Low session average grade
• Majored in specific areas
• When separating full-time and part-time, age does not affect part-time dropout
• Model global test: Χ2 (LR)=718, df=25, p<0.0001, Pseudo R2 =7.9%
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Results
Summary of Findings
• More college transfer students were part-time and they were older on average
• Overall graduation rate of college transfer students was lower and dropout rate was higher than direct entry students
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However
• A young college transfer student who enrolls in full-time status is as likely to graduate as a direct entry student
• Further control other variables, college transfer students are more likely to graduate than direct entry students
• College transfer students with lower grades are less likely to graduate
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Implications• Academic performance is nevertheless a very important impacting factor
• Age and registration status causes the retention issues through many mediating factors
• Ensure the appropriate institutional supports (student services, academic, etc) for university
• Policies need to support program transfers and collaborative programs
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Thank You
•A Modeling Degree Attainment of College Transfer Students at a Four-year Canadian Institution Abstract is available upon request
•Email: [email protected]
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