A LONG-RANGE PERSPECTIVE ON THE POTENTIAL ROLES OF MODEL TESTBEDS IN IOOS

CHRIS MOOERSDEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERINGPORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY

PORTLAND, OREGON

OUTLINE

• INTRODUCTION• MOTIVATION FOR MODEL TESTBEDS• ATTRIBUTES OF MODEL TESTBEDS• PHASED-DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL TESTBEDS• SUMMARY• {LAGNIAPPE}

INTRODUCTION• MODEL TESTBEDS ARE ACTIVITIES DESIGNED

TO ADVANCE THE USE OF NUMERICAL MODELING SYSTEMS (I.E., MODELS per se, OBSERVING NETWORKS, AND DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEMES) THRU THOROUGH SKILL ASSESSMENT, PREFERABLY WITH QUANTITATIVE METRICS LINKED TO SCIENTIFIC ISSUES AND USER NEEDS WHICH DEFINE COMMUNITY STANDARDS FOR OPERATIONAL, APPLICATIONS, AND R&D MODELING SYSTEMS

MOTIVATION FOR MODEL TESTBEDS• INCREASE THE CREDIBILITY AND, THUS, THE

UTILITY OF MODELING SYSTEMS THRU QUANTITATIVE SKILL ASSESSMENT

• ESTABLISH A WORKING ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH OPERATIONAL, APPLICATIONS, AND R&D PERSONNEL, MODELS, AND CULTURES MAY COLLABORATE IN ADVANCING THE PROFESSIONALISM AND PROFICIENCY OF THE MODELING COMMUNITY

• MAINTAIN A SET OF MODELING SYSTEMS “AT THE READY” FOR USE IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION, AS WAS DONE DURING DwH

ATTRIBUTES OF MODEL TESTBEDS

• SUSTAINED SKILL ASSESSMENT AND UPGRADING FOR MULTIPLE MODELING SYSTEMS & ACROSS MULTIPLE DISCIPLINES

• LINKED TO NAVY & NOAA OPERATIONAL CENTERS AND COOPERATIVE INSTITUTES (AND, THUS, TO FEDERAL LABORATORIES & ACADEMIA)

• CAPABILITY TO QUICKLY MOBILIZE WITH MODEL ENSEMBLES IN SUPPORT OF SOCIETAL RESPONSE TO ROUTINE COASTAL OCEAN MANAGEMENT TASKS, MARINE HAZARDS, AND DISASTERS

ATTRIBUTES (CONTINUED)

• UNIQUELY DESIGNED FOR SPECIFIC PURPOSES AND WITH SUITABLE INFRASTRUCTURE

• FEDERAL & ACADEMIC RESEARCHERS AND OPERATIONAL & APPLICATIONS PERSONNEL ENGAGED AND FUNDED UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF A MANAGEMENT OVERSIGHT BOARD (MOB)

• PLAYERS HAVE ACCESS TO OBSERVATIONS, NUMERICAL OUTPUT, OERATIONAL MODELS FOR EXPERIMENTS, ARCHIVES, ETC.

PHASED-DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL TESTBEDS

• EVALUATION OF SEVERAL PROTOTYPE TESTBED DESIGNS; ASSEMBLE PARTNERS & PLAYERS

• REGULAR USE IN SKILL ASSESSMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL PHYSICAL MODELING SYSTEMS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES

• SPREAD USE TO BIOGEOCHEMICAL AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING SYSTEMS

• PARTNERS & PLAYERS PARTICIPATE IN DESIGNING OPTIMAL OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS, ETC.

• INSTITUTIONALIZE SUPER-REGIONAL MODEL TESTBEDS AS ESSENTIAL COMPONENTS OF IOOS’S SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH TO MANAGING OCEAN PREDICTION ACTIVITIES

SUMMARY

• THE SUSTAINED MODEL TESTBED CONSTRUCT FACILITATES A NEW LEVEL OF TRANSPARENCY, COMMUNITY AWARENESS, AND SOCIETAL ACCOUNTABILTY FOR COASTAL OCEAN PREDICTION ON A SUPER-REGIONAL SCALE

• IT SERVES TO BRIDGE THE “VALLEY OF DEATH”; I.E., THE TRANSITION BETWEEN R&D AND OPERATIONS, BY OVER-LAPPING, JOINT ACTIVITIES; E.G., PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS

• A NATIONAL PROGRAM (ANALOGOUS TO USWRP) IS NEEDED; POSSIBLY THRU NOPP

LAGNIAPPE

• GOMEX-PPP (SPONSORED BY DOE/RPSEA) IS EVALUATING FOUR QUASI-OPERATIONAL, R&D MODELS & THREE OPERATIONAL 4D-CIRCULATION MODELS FOR THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO, BUT FOCUSING ON FORECASTING THE LOOP CURRENT AND ITS EDDIES DURING 2010 & 2011

• SEVERAL METRICS ARE BEING USED, INCLUDING THE VOLUME TRANSPORT OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA (I.E.,MAINLY THE FLORIDA CURRENT)

• PRELIMIMARY RESULTS (IN NEXT/FINAL SLIDE)FOR JUNE 2010 DEMONSTRATE: “ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT”