A Hybrid Path to Entry Alain L. Kornhauser Professor, Operations
Research & Financial Engineering Director, Transportation
Research Program Princeton University Presented at 91 st Annual
Meeting Transportation Research Board Washington, DC January 23,
2012 or Autonomous Vehicle Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) a Concept
or The Prospect for the Realization of Personal(izable)Rapid
Transit(PRT) through Autonomous Taxis Slide 2 Many Years Ago @ TRB
The Executive Director of APTA put his arm around me and said:
Alain Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) is the System of the Future,
And.. Always Will Be!!! A truly Prophetic Statement, But Slide 3
Why would I or Anyone ever have an interest in PRT? Well while PRT
may always be the System of the Future All other forms of Transit
are hopelessly uncompetitive in serving anything but a few
infinitesimally small and niche markets. http://www.bts.gov/pub
lications/highlights_of_t he_2001_national_hous
ehold_travel_survey/ht ml/figure_06.html Slide 4 provides a
phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) Its dominance has proved
insensitive to Price: A doubling in the Inflation adjusted price of
gasoline http://inflationdata.com/Infl ation/images/charts/Oil/Gas
oline_inflation_chart.htm The Competition (the automobile) Slide 5
provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) Its dominance
has proved insensitive to Congestion: Increased in duration,
intensity and extent hthttp://www.ops.f hwa.dot.gov/conge
stion_report/execut ive_summary.htm# congestion_worse The
Competition (the automobile) Slide 6 provides a phenomenally better
Value (Service_Price) Its dominance has proved insensitive to
PeerPressure: Through the Clean Air Act of 1970, the automobile has
been enormously robust in addressing environmental concerns
http://w ww.bts. gov/pub lications /pocket _guide_t o_trans
portatio n/2011/ pdf/enti re.pdf The Competition (the automobile)
Slide 7 provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) Its
dominance has been robust to PeerPressure from: safety concerns; it
has cut its fatality rate in half in last 25 years
http://www.bts.gov/publicatio ns/pocket_guide_to_transport
ation/2011/pdf/entire.pdf Slide 8 provides a phenomenally better
Value (Service_Price) Its dominance has been robust to PeerPressure
from: Energy independence; substantial fuel efficiency improvements
and conversions: The Competition (the automobile) Slide 9 provides
a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) Its dominance has been
robust to PeerPressure from: safety concerns; it has cut its
fatality rate in half in last 25 years
http://www.bts.gov/publicatio ns/pocket_guide_to_transport
ation/2011/pdf/entire.pdf The Competition (the automobile) Slide 10
Why is Transit so unable to compete? For the most part: The
personal utility delivered by a trip varies wildly with a
definitive extremum that depends on the detailed temporal and
spatial characteristics of the trip. Relatively few individuals
tend to have Utility distributions that are compatible with the
spatial and temporal service offerings of conventional mass. So
People go out an buy cars and craft its use to capture the most
utility out of every trip they make. The cars temporal flexibility
and spatial ubiquity that allows its users to readily maximize
their temporal-spatial utility. Slide 11 PRT is An attempt to
duplicate the cars temporal availability and spatial ubiquity.
Temporal availability: vehicles repositioned in anticipation of
demand and expeditiously dispatched once boarded Spatial ubiquity:
through the provision of stations efficiently interconnected
off-line stations where some vehicles can wait for passengers while
allowing others to pass by without delay Slide 12 Since the
Temporal-Spatial distribution of personal utility-maximizing travel
demand is so diffuse: The probability that more than a handful of
people will want to travel at about the same time, from the same
station and along a similar path is very small; thus, the delivered
service is usually Personal, and when demand is high, informal ride
share opportunities to efficiently flatten out the demand curve and
avoid congestion at essentially no loss of utility. PRT delivers
all of the fundamental benefits of owning a car without the burdens
of owning your own car. PRT is Slide 13 So why hasnt PRT
Flourished? Scale: When large, the spatial ubiquity flourishes My
classes have designed NJ State-wide PRT networks that place
essentially every desired location within mile walk (no one needs a
car!) ; however, it requires ~10,000 off-line stations, and ~
10,000 miles of interconnect, mostly elevated guideway When
limited, spatial flexibility is limited insufficient for more than
a very few to give up their car. So The initial evolutionary path
form nothing to something is very challenging Slide 14
Infrastructure: The guideway is largely duplicative of existing
roadways Even though it is small and narrow it is still duplicative
Guideway needs to be grade separated from roadways Its usually
elevated or fenced; a visual blight (to least some) Capital
requirements remain in the private sector Risk-reward measure
remains squarely on why bother! True for Speculators, Land
Developers, Chartered Utilities, Monopolies and the Public Sector
So why hasnt PRT Flourished? Slide 15 There may be light in the
tunnel APMs are a mainstay at essentially every major airport WVU
fully appreciates and acknowledges the essential value of its 40
year old PRT system New PRT systems are operational in Masdar and
Heathrow New systems are under construction in Korea and about to
commence in India Price of the communications and automatic
controls is going to zero Slide 16 The biggest light may be The
Advances in Autonomous Vehicle Control Much of it fueled by the
DARPA Grand Challenges 04, 05, 07 Continued on by researchers,
entrepreneurs and manufacturers Lane departure warning and lane
keeping Frontal collision warning and avoidance Many individual
autonomous vehicle initiatives Princeton: Prospect 12 objective to
pass NJ DMV drivers test Italians Germans VT, CMU, Stanford, Google
All with the objective of placing sufficient intelligence in a
vehicle so that it can operate safely and efficiently on existing
street mixed in with human operated vehicle Slide 17 It is Clear We
arent very good drivers We prefer to text, talk, drink, sleep,
daydream, rather than drive Driving is boring, an insult to our
intelligence! Once upon a time I shifted gears, controlled my
cruise speed with my foot and closely planned my every turn
Hopefully Ill no longer have to steer, brake, or pay attention.
Chances are: People will gladly pay for such service Slide 18 If I
dont have to drive Why should I own??? If I pay enough One will
show up at my front door and properly deploy itself at my
destination. If demand is too high I can walk to a nearby
autonomous taxi stand and contribute to ridesharing. Slide 19 To
serve New Jerseys ~30 million daily trips, I need NJ Transit rail
and express bus operation to continue operation ~10,000 off-street
Autonomous Taxi locations ~1,000,000 autonomous vehicles All
operating on existing streets that could continue to be used for
goods movement, emergency management, bicyclists, walkers. Thank
You
