A Health Impact Assessment of California's Cap-and-Trade Greenhouse Mitigation Policy

8/14/2019 A Health Impact Assessment of California's Cap-and-Trade Greenhouse Mitigation Policy

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Spring 09!!

!

Health!Impact

!Assessment

!of

!Californias

!

ap"and"Trade!Greenhouse!Gas!Mitigation!

olicy!

!

!

!

!

!

!

Prepared!for:!!Ann!Lindsay,!MD,!Health!Officer,!Humboldt!County;!and!Linda!Rudolph,!MD,!MPH,

Deputy!Director,!Center!for!Chronic!Disease!Prevention!and!Health!Promotion,!

California!Department!of!Public!Health!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!

! !

Prepared!by:!Ellen!Avis,!Caroline!Chen,!Lisa!Foster,!Jess!Lynch,!Marisa!Rimland,!!

Michelle!Ross!&!Ayrin!Zahner!

!May!11,!20


2/10

!

Contributors!and!Acknowledgments!

!

The!authors!of!this!report!would!like!to!acknowledge!the!following!people!and!organizations!for!

their!contribution

!to

!this

!research:

!!

!

For!guidance!in!HIA!methods:!

!

Rajiv!Bhatia,!MD,!MPH!

Director,!Occupational!&!Environmental!Health,!

San!Francisco!Department!of!Public!Health!

Assistant!Clinical!Professor!of!Medicine,!UCSF!

!

Jason!

Corburn,!

PhD!

Assistant!Professor!

Department!of!City!&!Regional!Planning!

University!of!California,!Berkeley!

!

Edmund!Seto,!PhD!

Associate!Researcher!

Environmental!Health!Sciences!

School!of!Public!Health!

University!

of!

California,!

Berkeley!

!

For!contributions!of!data:!!

!

Zev!Ross!

President,!Zev!Ross!Spatial!Analysis!

!

National!Resources!Defense!Council!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!U C ! B e r k e l e y , ! P H ! 2 6 7 D ! H e a l t h ! I m p a c t ! A s s e s s m e n t ; ! R a j i v ! B h a t i a , ! M D ; ! P r o f e s s o r !J a s o n ! C o r b u r n ; ! P r o f e s s o r ! E d m u n d ! S e t o . !California!Cap"and"Trade!HIA,!Page!|!2!


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!California!Cap"and"Trade!HIA,!Page!|!3!

!

!

Table!of!Contents!

!

EXECUTIVE!SUMMARY............................................................................................................. 5

!

REPORT!CONTENTS!AND!STRUCTURE .................................................................................... 10!

BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 10!

Health!Impact!Assessment!Defined .............................................................................................. 10!

Screening:!!Why!conduct!this!HIA?............................................................................................... 11!

Scoping!of!Analysis!&!Major!Research!Questions ........................................................................ 12!

Current!

Conditions ........................................................................................................................ 16!

ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................................................... 17!

Overview!of!Process!Equity!Health!Concerns............................................................................... 17!

Overview!of!Income!Effects!from!Cap"and"Trade ........................................................................ 20!

Overview!of!Air!Pollution!Health!Concerns .................................................................................. 24!

Potential!Scenarios!under!Cap"and"Trade.................................................................................... 30!

Key!Assumptions!Regarding!Industry!Reaction ............................................................................ 30!

Air!Quality

!Monitoring

!around

!Stationary

!Sources ...................................................................... 33

!

DISCUSSION!OF!ALTERNATIVE!POLICIES................................................................................. 37!

CAP"AND"TRADE!POLICY!DESIGN!RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................ 38!

Auction/Allocation!of!Allowances................................................................................................. 38!

Offsets:!Minimized,!Incentivized,!and!Localized........................................................................... 38!

Equitable!Participatory!Processes!for!Implementation,!Enforcement!and!Monitoring............... 39!

Supplementary!Policies!for!Green!Jobs ..................................................................................... 39!

Air!Pollution ...................................................................................................................... ............ 40

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 41!

!!


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!

Table!of!Maps!

Map!1:!Carbon!Emitters!in!Phase!I!of!CA!Cap"and"Trade............................................................. 13!

Map!2:!Vulnerable!Communities!and!Stationary!Sources............................................................ 27!

Map!3:

!Vulnerable

!Populations

!in

!the

!L.A.

!Area........................................................................... 28

!

Map!4:!Children!&!Elders!in!the!L.A.!Area .................................................................................... 29!

Map!5:!Interpolation!of!NO2!Emissions!in!the!Bay!Area .............................................................. 36!

!

Table!of!Figures!

Figure!1:!Policy!to!Health!Pathways!Overview ............................................................................. 14!

Figure!2:!!Pathways!Overview!!Process!Equity ........................................................................... 17!

Figure!3:!Pathways!Overview!!Income!Effects............................................................................ 21!

Figure!4:!Pathways!Overview!!Criteria!Pollutants....................................................................... 24!

!

Table!of

!Tables

!

Table!1:!The!HIA!Process............................................................................................................... 11!

Table!2:!Emissions!Reductions!below!Business!as!Usual!(BAU) ................................................... 32!

Table!3:!Avoided!Emissions!from!Top!Emitters!in!LA!in!2020,!tons!per!day ................................ 33!

!

APPENDICES!

!



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EXECUTIVE!SUMMARY! !The!California!Air!Resources!Board!(ARB)!conducted!an!initial!assessment!of!the!public!health!

implications!of!Assembly!Bill!32!(AB!32),!Californias!Global!Warming!Solutions!Act,!in!the!

recently!adopted

!Scoping

!Plan

!(June

!2008).

!This

!analysis

!explicitly

!focuses

!on

!the

!health

!

benefits!of!reduced!air!pollution!that!follow!from!a!suite!of!strategies!included!in!the!Plan;!ARB!

expects!most!air!pollution!reductions!to!come!from!transportation"related!measures!and!

existing!regulations!under!the!Clean!Air!Act!(CAA).!ARBs!health!analysis!does!not!address!the!

proposed!cap"and"trade!program,!because!of!the!difficulty!in!predicting!in!which!sectors!

reductions!might!occur.!While!ARBs!health!analysis!gives!examples!of!air"pollution!reduction!

benefits!in!regional!and!community!scales,!it!assumes!a!rosy!scenario:!it!states!that!stationary!

industrial!sources!will!reduce!emissions!10!percent!across!the!board!(ARB,!2008a).!!!

!

This!Health

!Impact

!Assessment

!(HIA)

!attempts

!to

!fill

!some

!potential

!gaps

!in

!ARBs

!health

!

assessment!by!identifying!health!impacts!associated!with!the!first!phase!of!AB!32s!proposed!

cap"and"trade!program,!which!concerns!stationary!source!emitters.!Our!analysis!focuses!on!

three!health!determinants:!

! Process!equity:!!How!equitable!was!the!policy"making!process!and!whose!contributions!most!shaped!the!outcomes?!

! Economic!effects:!!How!will!the!policy!affect!costs!and!incomes!for!vulnerable!communities?!!

! Distribution!of!air!pollution!impacts:!!Where!will!mitigation!measures!occur?!This!analysis

!will

!pay

!particular

!attention

!to

!communities

!that

!are

!already

!experiencing

!

heavy!impacts!from!air!pollution.!

!

Cap"and"trade!and!Procedural!Equity!!

Public!involvement!and!participation!in!decision"making!is!essential!to!a!healthy!democracy.!

The!World!Health!Organization!(WHO)!and!the!United!Nations!Human!Development!Report!

(2002)!assert!that,!Democracy!has!proven!to!be!the!system!of!governance!most!capable!of!

mediating!and!preventing!conflict!and!of!securing!and!sustaining!well"being.!Inclusive,!

transparent,!participatory!democratic!processes!contribute!to!building!important!health!

determinants!such

!as

!equality,

!empowerment,

!and

!social

!capital.

!We

!maintain

!that

!procedural

!

equity!in!the!scoping!and!implementation!of!AB32!has!important!implications!for:!(1)!achieving!

efficacy!in!achieving!greenhouse!gas!(GHG)!reductions!targets!and!maximizing!overall!health!co"

benefits;!(2)!ensuring!that!vulnerable!populations!can!share!in!those!co"benefits;!and!(3)!

empowering!communities!through!participation!in!the!policy"making!process.!

!

!


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!

Findings:!

! Public!health!professionals!have!a!very!important!role!to!play,!in!collaboration!with!ARB!and!other!stakeholders,!to!refine!methods!for!identifying!local!impacts!associated!with!

mitigation!

policies!

and!

to!

make!

sure!

those!

methods!

are!

used!

in!

policy!

decision"

making.!

! Implementation!of!Cap"and"trade!provides!an!opportunity!for!Public!Health!to!support!community!based!participatory!research!and!capacity"building!so!that!vulnerable!

communities!are!able!to!participate!effectively!in!decision"making!processes!that!impact!

health.!

!

Impact!of!Energy!Markets!on!Low"Income!Communities!

Household!income!and!employment!status!influences!health!(Krieger,!2003).!Low!

socioeconomic!status""defined!by!income,!education,!and!occupation""is!associated!with!many!

types!

of!

poor!

health!

outcomes,!

including!

low!

birth!

weight,!

cardiovascular!

disease,!

hypertension,!arthritis,!diabetes,!and!cancers!(Pamuck,!Heck,!Reuben,!&!Lochner,!1998).!

Evidence!finds!differences!in!male!mortality!by!social!class!(as!defined!by!occupation)!(Harding,!

1995).!Unemployed!people!have!a!higher!prevalence!of!poor!health!outcomes!(Bartley,!1994).!

ARB!expects!its!GHG!reductions!policies!to!stimulate!the!economy!rather!than!harm!it!(ARB,!

2008d).!However,!this!optimistic!economic!analysis!focuses!on!the!results!of!the!full!suite!of!

GHG!reduction!policies,!not!just!cap"and"trade.!Some!economic!analysts!have!perceived!this!as!

over"generalization!(EPA,!2007).!

!

Findings:!

! Cap"and"trade,!by!itself,!is!equivalent!to!a!tax!on!economic!activity,!which!may!slow!economic!growth!(Roland"Holst,!2009).!Furthermore,!job"loss!from!decreased!economic!

activity!may!have!a!negative!health!impact!for!vulnerable!populations.!

! Industrial!emitters!and!utilities!may!pass!along!the!cost!of!allowances!and!offsets!to!consumers,!causing!the!price!of!electricity,!cement,!and!petroleum!to!increase.!This!will!

affect!low"income!consumers!who!already!spend!a!high!proportion!of!their!incomes!on!

energy.!!

! In!the!short"term,!there!may!be!little!change.!Industry!may!choose!to!buy!allowances!and!offsets!before!investing!in!emission"reduction!technologies.!!In!this!case,!

communities!will!not!benefit!from!new!jobs!or!local!emissions!reductions!(EPA,!2007).!


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!

Findings!

! The!top!17!emitters!in!the!state!contribute!over!50!percent!of!the!CO2e!emissions!from!stationary!sources.!!!

!Eight

!

of!

these!

are!

large!

oil!

refineries,!

located!

in!

Richmond!

and!

Los!

Angeles/Long!

Beach!

in!

high!density,!low"income!communities!of!color.!

! Current!air!quality!monitoring!devices!are!often!located!far!from!large!polluters.!This!distance!makes!them!ineffective!at!notifying!nearby!communities!of!potential!pollution!

threats!and!enabling!those!communities!to!take!health!protective!actions.!

!

Policy!Design!Levers!

Design!details!of!cap"and"trade!(i.e.!allowance!auctioning!and!revenue!investment,!offsets!

location!guidelines,!rules!regarding!banking,!addition!of!price!ceilings/floors!for!a!single!ton!of!

CO2e,!

etc.)!

can!

greatly!

influence!

the!

impact!

of!

GHG!

cap"

and"

trade,!

determining!

whether!

the!

policy!will!bestow!co"benefits!or!inflict!additional!burdens!on!vulnerable!populations!(Paltsev!&!

Massachusetts!Institute!of!Technology!Center!for!Energy!and!Environmental!Policy!Research,!

2007).!A!brief!discussion!of!important!design!details!follows.!

!

Allowance!Allocation:!!Carbon!credits!are!allocated!in!two!ways:!they!can!either!be!auctioned!or!

given!away,!the!number!of!credits!based!on!current!pollution!levels!of!each!emitter.!Auctioning!

initially!allows!market!forces!set!the!price,!but!may!result!in!higher!costs!being!passed!on!to!

consumers.!Giving!away!allowances,!in!contrast,!may!result!in!a!direct!transfer!of!wealth!to!

large!polluters!as!the!market!price!of!carbon!determines!what!costs!are!translated!to!

consumers.!Auctioning!also!provides!a!source!of!revenue!that!can!be!invested!in!a!progressive!

spending!plan.!

!

!Recommendations: !

! Advocate!for!100%!auction!of!allowances!to!maximize!revenue.!Suggested!uses!include:!o Directing!subsidies!to!stabilize!the!budgets!of!low"income!households!and!to!

assist!in!adaptation;!!

o Stimulating!job!growth!in!the!renewable!energy!and!energy!efficiency!sectors.!!o Improving!local!air!quality!measurements!by!placing!monitors!close!to!emitters.!!


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!

Offsets:!!Current!policy!recommendations!allow!up!to!49%!of!emissions!reductions!to!be!met!

through!international!offsets.!Offsets!are!often!the!cheapest!way!for!industry!to!reduce!

emissions;!consumers!would!also!share!this!savings!by!enjoying!lower!costs,!meaning!lower!

costs!for!consumers.!These!offsets!are!controversial!because!they!can!be!difficult!to!verify,!

possibly!leading!to!unsuccessful!mitigation!efforts.!Moreover,!local!emitters!would!not!have!to!

reduce!their!emissions!and!potential!local!health!and!economic!co"benefits!would!be!lost.!!!

!

Recommendations: !

! Advocate!for!reductions!in!allowable!offsets!and!incentivize!offsets!that!create!local!public!health!co"benefits.!!

!

Price!Controls:!!Banking,!borrowing,!price!floors!and!ceilings!are!all!ways!of!controlling!the!

carbon!market!and!reducing!price!volatility.!!!!

!

Considerations!outside!Cap"and"Trade:!

Cap"and"trade!itself!will!not!ensure!that!vulnerable!communities!are!not!adversely!impacted!by!

air!pollution!and!increasing!energy!prices.!!We!suggest!the!following!complementary!policies:!

! Define! and! institutionalize! collaborative! roles! for! other! state! agencies,! like! Public!Health.!

! Advocate!for!the!creation!of!complementary!policies!that!encourage!renewable!energy!use,! energy! efficiency,! and! green!jobs! training.! (Roland"Host,! 2009;! Apollo! Alliance,!

Green! for! All,! Center! for! American! Progress,! &! Center! on! Wisconsin! Strategy,! 2008;!

Jones,!2009)!

! Consider!direct!regulation!of!the!top!emitters!or!other!mechanisms!to! reduce!carbon!and!pollution!in!heavily!impacted!communities.!

! Require!public!reporting!of!GHGs!emissions!and!trading!details.!


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!

!

REPORT!CONTENTS!AND!STRUCTURE!

This!report!begins!with!background!information!that!led!to!our!decision!to!conduct!this!Health!

Impact!Assessment.!We!then!discuss!the!scoping!process,!outlining!how!we!determined!what!

policy!and!health!determinants!to!include!in!the!analysis.!Next,!we!assess!three!health!

determinants!that!cap"and"trade!will!impact.!We!conclude!with!an!analysis!of!cap"and"trade!

policy!design!features!that!could!affect!health,!and!provide!a!series!of!recommendations!to!

ensure!the!best!public!health!outcomes.!

BACKGROUND!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Health!Impact!Assessment!Defined1!

Health!Impact!Assessment!(HIA)!seeks!to!identify!health!risks!and!opportunities!before!they!

actually!happen,!to!avoid!the!transfer!of!these!hidden!costs!and!promote!multi"sectoral!

responsibility!for!health!and!well"being!(Quigley!et!al.,!2006).!There!is!no!universal!definition!

for!HIA,!but!the!World!Health!Organization!(WHO)!definition!is!cited!in!multiple!papers!(Cole!BL,!

et!al.,!2005;!Dannenberg!et!al.,!2006;!Dannenberg!et!al.,!2008)!as!a!combination!of!

procedures,!methods,!and!tools!by!which!a!policy,!program,!or!project!may!be!judged!as!to!its!

potential!effects

!on

!the

!health

!of

!a!population,

!and

!the

!distribution

!of

!those

!effects

!within

!the

!population!(European!Centre!for!Health!Policy,!WHO!Regional!Office!for!Europe,!1999).!

!

HIA!uses!a!broad!definition!of!health,!and!looks!for!both!positive!and!negative!health!effects!

(Cole!BL,!et!al.,!2005).!It!utilizes!a!multi"disciplinary!approach,!and!may!consider!a!wide!range!of!

factors!ranging!from!biology,!economics,!political!climate,!socio"cultural!dynamics,!the!physical!

environment,!the!availability!of!public!services,!to!the!impact!of!existing!public!policies.!HIAs!

vary!in!scope,!from!rapid!to!comprehensive!(Krieger!et!al.,!2003).!The!most!comprehensive!HIAs!

include!the!six!steps!outlined!in!Table!1.!

!1!This!section!includes!research!from!an!unpublished!graduate!student!paper!entitled!Bringing!Health!

Considerations!into!Planning!Decisions:!Health!Impact!Assessment!as!a!Potential!Tool!by!Lisa!C.!Foster,!one!of!the!

authors!of!this!report.

Documents

A Health Impact Assessment of California's Cap-and-Trade Greenhouse Mitigation Policy