Technical Note

A Global Green New Deal for Climate, Energy, and Development

A big push strategy to

Drive down the cost of renewable energy

Ramp up deployment in developing countries

End energy poverty

Contribute to economic recovery and growth

Generate employment in all countries

and

Help avoid dangerous climate change

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs

December2009

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Acknowledgements

This strategy has been prepared by Alan AtKisson, consultant to theUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicAffairs,withguidancefromJomoK.Sundaram, Assistant‐Secretary‐General for Economic and Social Affairs, andTariq Banuri, David O’Connor and Ivan Vera of the Division for SustainableDevelopment. It is an elaboration of a strategy first spelt out in theDepartment’s World Economic and Social Survey 2009: PromotingDevelopment, Saving the Planet, whose principal authors were RichardKozul‐Wright and Imran Habib Ahmed, under the direction of Rob Vos,Director,DivisionforPolicyAnalysisandDevelopment.

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Key Messages Energyisthekeytoeconomicdevelopment,andrenewableenergyisthekeytoafuturewithoutdangerousclimatechange.Butrenewableenergyistooexpensivetoday,especiallyfortheworld'spoor,manyofwhomhavenoaccesstomodernenergyatall.Althoughthepriceofrenewableenergyisfalling,itwillnotfallfastenoughanywhere,onitsown,tohelptheworldwintheraceagainsttimewithdangerousclimatechange.Publicpoliciescanhelpproducethenecessarydeclineintheglobalpriceofrenewableenergyandmakeituniversallyaffordableinonetotwodecades.Thekeymechanismisarapidincreaseininstalledcapacity.A“bigpush”inbothpublicandprivateinvestmenttoscaleuprenewableenergywillleadtorapidcostreduction,technologyimprovement,andlearningbydoing.Investmentandcostreductionwillgeneratea“virtuouscycle”ofadditionalinvestment,economicgrowth,employmentgeneration,energysecurity,geopoliticalstability,internationalcooperationandemissionreductions.This“bigpush”cannotbeimplementedbyanycountryalone.Inthefirstdecade‐and‐a‐half,itwillrequiregloballyfundedguarantees,orpricesupports(e.g.,throughaglobal"feed‐intariffs"program),tosubsidizeinvestment.Afterthat,the“virtuouscycle”willtakeoverandmakefurtherpricesupportsorinternationaltransfersunnecessary,asrenewableenergybecomesthedefaultoptionfornewenergyinvestmentworldwide. Pricesupportswillbecomplementedbyaglobalrenewableenergyextensionprogram:research,technical,andpolicysupportdesignedtoacceleratetheprocess.ThisstrategyiscalledtheGlobalGreenNewDeal,andthetimetoadoptitisnow.

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Introduction: Push Down to Lift Up Theworldcanavoiddangerousclimatechange–bypushingdownthepriceofrenewableenergy,asquicklyaspossible.Theaimofclimatenegotiationsistoreducegreenhousegasemissionsandenableadaptation to climate changewithout endangeringmomentumondevelopment.Thispaperproposesanapproach that canhelpachieveall theseobjectives in apractical and timelymanner: a focusonaccelerated investment ina renewableenergyfuture.There isnowbroadagreementon theneed todramatically reduce globalemissionsofcarbondioxideinthecomingdecades.Atthesame,thereisalsoagreementontheneedtodramatically increase the economicprospects of theworld's poorest people, and inparticulartoprovidethemwithmodernenergyservices.Thesegoalsareoftenseenasbeing in conflict with one another, and continuing to view them as conflicting slowsprogress towards either. Only by considering them together as a single, integratedchallengedoesawaybeyondtheimpassebecomevisible.But first,wemust changeour strategicperspectiveon theproblemof climate change.Currently, all eyes are locked on the accumulation of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere, and therefore on emissions reduction, or “mitigation,” as the strategicresponsetothisproblem.Butwemustrememberthatemissionsreductionisagoal;itisnot a strategy. In fact, the almost exclusive focus on emissions targets offers fewattractive choices to negotiators (Birdsall and Subramanian, 2009). It locks theworldintoaperceived "win‐lose"or even "no‐win" scenario, as anever‐shrinkingemissionspie must be divided up among (1) those who have already eaten more than a lion'sshare, and (2) those whose growing and justifiable hunger exceeds the size of theremainingpiecesonoffer.As a goal, the need for emissions reduction is unimpeachable. As a strategic focus,however,itisleadingusdownadead‐endpath.Theonlyviablestrategyistocreateabiggerpie–andthisrequiresustoshiftourfocusfromthe rapid reductionofgreenhouseemissions to the rapidexpansionof renewableenergy.Energyisthekeytoeconomicdevelopmentandsocialwellbeing,andrenewableenergyisthekeytoafuturewithoutdangerousclimatechange.Whileforestconservation,land‐usechanges,andefficiencymeasuresareessentialcontributorstoanypositiveclimatescenario,therecanbenofutureclimatestabilitywithoutarapidconversionfromfossilfuelstosun,wind,andwater‐basedenergytechnologies.Fortunately,thereareencouragingsignsthatsuchatransformationintheenergysectorisalreadyunderway. Theglobalmarket forrenewableenergyhasbeenestimatedat$1.6 trillion as of 2007‐08.Annual growth rateshavebeen reported as25% forwindenergy,and80‐100%forsolarphoto‐voltaics.Withthesedramaticincreasesincapacityhavecomeequallydramaticdeclinesincost. Forexample,thecostofsolarpanelshas

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fallenfrom$5perwattin2005tojustoveronedollarperwattin2009;andinjustthreeto five years, Japanese planners are expecting to cut the cost of a solar electricitygenerationsysteminhalf(EuropeanCommission,2009).Despite these rapid advances, renewable energy remains expensive, especially for thetwo billion people who have no access tomodern energy services. Prices are falling,driven by increasingmarket demand, scale economies, and technological diffusion aswellas technology improvement. Butpriceshavenot fallen fastenoughtomakesuchtechnologiesaffordableatlargescaleindevelopingandemergingindustrialeconomies.Theyhavenotfallenfastenoughtooutcompetecoal,oil,andnaturalgasasthedefaultchoices for energy. Theyhavenot fallen fast enough tooffer a realistic alternative tomillionsofwomenhuddledoverwoodfires,ortootherswhocontinuetosufferfromthehealth‐andplanet‐damagingsootofburningbiomass.Insum,thepriceofrenewableenergyhasnotfallenfastenoughtosavetheworldfromexperiencingdangerousclimatechange.Norwillitfallrapidlyenough,onitsown,todoso.But thisproblem isactuallyanenormousopportunity indisguise– for it isaproblemthe world can do something about. By working together to push down the price ofrenewable energy, as rapidly as possible, we can lift up the prospects of peopleeverywhere,bothenvironmentallyandeconomically.

CreatingpositivetippingpointsandvirtuouscyclesRecent research by the United Nations and others (see, e.g., United Nations 2009,Birdsall andSubramanian2009, JacobsenandDelucchi2009)has focusedonways todrive down the price of renewable energy in the near term, accelerate its spreadglobally, improvetheeconomiesofboththedevelopedanddevelopingworld,andendenergy poverty. This genuine "win‐win" strategy carries with it another extremelyimportant benefit: it makes possible the attainment of critical emission reductiontargets,andthusreducestheriskofdangerousclimatechange.The "GlobalGreenNewDeal" (GGND)brings thedifferent componentsof the strategytogether intoan integratedprogram: internationalgoal‐setting, limited‐timesubsidies,targeted investments, coordinated national development policies, and comprehensiveextension systems. Together these can accelerate the global economy's arrival at a"positivetippingpoint" inthespreadofrenewableenergy. Pushingdownthepriceofrenewablesand removing thebarriers to their adoptionwill accelerate theprocessofindustrialscaling‐up inthatsector–aprocesswhich isalreadyunderway. Expandedmarketsforrenewableenergy,andfastergrowthratesinproduction,willleadtofastertechnologyimprovement,whichwillfurtherlowercostsandthusprices.Theresultwillbea“virtuouscycle”ofexpansion,learning,andcostreduction.Withinarelativelyshortperiodoftime–between10and20years,dependingonhowquicklytheworldrampsup–priceswill have fallen to thepointwhere subsidies for renewable energy arenolongernecessary.(Seebox,"TheGlobalGreenNewDeal‐BytheNumbers.")

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TheGlobalGreenNewDeal‐BytheNumbersThe mechanics of the GGND strategy are straightforward. Step 1: define the “globalaffordabilitytarget”,assumedheretobe$0.03to0.05perkilowatt‐hour,correspondingroughlyto$1.00‐$1.50perWattinvestmentcost.Step2:Collectinformationoncurrentinvestment costs aswell as current and expected future (in this case, 2025) levels ofinstalled renewable energy capacity, assuming no global renewables investmentprogram.Step3:uselearningcurvestoestimatetheinstalledcapacitycorrespondingtothe global affordability target. Step 4: Estimate the additional investment needed toexpand installedcapacity to the levelestimated in thepreviousstep. Step5:Estimatethe share of the incremental investment that needs to be supported throughinternationalpriceguarantees.Themainvariation in theresultstems fromdifferentestimatesof technology learningcurves. However, even the conservative estimates of learning curves show that theglobal affordability target can be reached with additional investment of up to $100billion(in2005dollars)peryearoverfifteenyears.Thiswouldbringdownthecostsoftwo leading renewable technologies (solar PV andwind) to a level that is universallyaffordable.SignificantlygreaterinvestmentisnecessaryforSolarPVthanforWind,butevenwindrequiressubsidizedinvestmenttoachievethetargetpricewithinthetargettimescale.Step

Wind SolarPV1. GlobalAffordabilityTarget(Investmentcost$/W) 1.00 1.00

2a. Currentinvestmentcosts($/W) 1.50 2.90‐3.40

2b. Currentinstalledcapacity(GW) 120 13

2c. Installedcapacityexpectedin2025underBAU(GW) 570 160

3. InstalledcapacitycorrespondingtoGATcost(GW) 700 1390

4a. AdditionalcapacityneededtoachieveGAT(GW) 130 1230

4b. Additionalinvestmentcost(billion2005USD) $33 $1,476

5. TOTALADDITIONALINVESTMENTCOST $1000‐1500billion

Source:PreliminaryanalysisbyUN/DESA­DSD,usingexpectedinstalledcapacitydataprovidedbyIEA(2009),andlearningcurveestimates(investmentcostsperwattofinstalledcapacity)providedbyIIASA(2009).This is theupper endof suchestimates.The actual figurewouldvery likelybe lower.Step5(i.e.,internationaltransfers)isnotestimatedexplicitly,butitcanbeexpectedthatatleasttwo‐thirdsoftheadditionalcapacitywouldbedeployedindevelopingcountries.In higher income countries, the additional costs of renewable energy are generallypassedontoconsumersintheirelectricitybills.

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The strategic objective of the GGND is to make proven renewable technologiesuniversally affordable, so that renewable energy becomes the default choice for theworldasawhole.Makingrenewableenergyaffordabledirectlyaddressestheneedsofdeveloping countries and emerging economies, where the demand for new energyservices is most acute, and where the vast majority of new energy development isexpectedtooccurinthecomingdecades.But pushing down the price of renewable energy also ensures that, as aginginfrastructure comes up for replacement in the industrialized countries, thosereplacementswillalsoresultinashiftfromfossiltorenewablepowersources.Inbothcases,pushingdownthepricehelpspreventthelock‐inof investmentcapital infossil‐fuel‐basedtechnologies,whichwouldexposethepoortodecadesofpollution,anddoomhumanitytosuffertheconsequencesofadditionalglobalwarming.The GGND involves the mobilization of large‐scale public and private financing forinvestments,whosereturnsattheglobalscaleinclude:

• Employment:Millions of new "green jobs" in a rapidly expanding renewableenergy sector in both developed and developing countries. (Investments inrenewableenergyhavebeenshowntocreatetwotothreetimesasmanyjobsasinvestments in conventional energy development.) (Pollin and Garrett‐Peltier,2007)

• Energy Security: Increased geo‐political stability, improving the conditions for

trade and exchange of all kinds. (As nations become less dependent on theproductionandimportationoffossilfuels,theywillhavelessreasonforconflictoverthesourcesofbothenergyandemissions.)

• Reduced Climate Risks: A significant reduction in costs associated with the

expecteddamages fromacceleratedglobalwarming. (As theSternReviewandothershavenoted, inactiononglobalwarming could result in costs ashigh as20%ofworldoutputinthecomingcentury.)(Stern,2006)

• International Cooperation: A clear pathway for multiple actors to channel

internationalfinanceformitigation,aswellasamechanismforphasingoutsuchfinancingwithin one to two decades. (In recentwork, Stern et al. note that awell‐structured finance scheme will create aligned incentives, encouragegovernmentsandprivatesectoractorstoworktogether,andcreatethevirtuouscycleofinvestmentanddevelopmentthatistheessenceofthisstrategy.)(Stern,2009)

• Greenhouse GasMitigation: The contribution of this investment to greenhouse

gas mitigation consists of two components: direct and indirect. The directcomponentistheavoidedemissionsduetothesubstitutionofanewrenewableenergyplantforaconventionalenergyalternative,mostlikelycoal.Inthiscase,thisworks out to the avoidance of between 2.5 and 3.5 billion tons of carbondioxideperyearby2025andeveryyearthereafter.Assuminganinvestmentlifeof40years,thecumulativeemissionreductionwouldbebetween100and140billion tonsof carbondioxideatan incremental costofup to$1,500billion, inotherwords,between$15and$11per tonof carbondioxide.However, this isonly a part of the story. Once the cost of the renewable energy becomescompetitive and affordable, itwill become thedefault option for futurepowersector investments. This means that. between 2025 and 2050, the initialinvestment of $1,500 billion will continue to produce additional offsetting of

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carbondioxide.Ifpowersectorcapacitycontinuestogrowathistoricratesandinaccordancewithrisingdemandfromdevelopingcountries,thiswillresult inthe avoidance of an additional 8 billion tons of emissions per year at noadditionalcost.

From forward‐looking firms in the energy sector, to individual householders in theworld'spoorestcountries,toskilledworkersandexpertsinallcountries,aGlobalGreenNewDealcreatesmanywinnersintheglobaleconomy.ImplementingtheGGNDwilllaythefoundationforanew,self‐sustainingcycleofgreengrowthglobally,whilesteeringthe world on a course to end the scourge of energy poverty and avoid the threat ofdangerousclimateinstability(Figure1).

Figure1.AschematicofhowtheGlobalGreenNewDealwillworktoaccomplishitsobjectives

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TheElementsofaGlobalGreenNewDealTheGGNDinvolvestherapiddeploymentofnineintegratedmechanismsthatwillworktogetherasarenewableenergyaccelerator:

TheGGNDRoadMap1 SetTargets:Setcleartargetsforbothrenewableenergycosts(i.e.,thecostneedsto

becomeaffordableaswellascompetitivewithconventionaltechnologies,currentlybetween$0.03and$0.05/kWh), and for the yearbywhich the target cost is tobereached(e.g.,aglobaltargetyearof2025).Givenknownratesofcostreduction,thiswillimplyacorollarytargetforrenewableenergyinstalledcapacity.

2. SetPriceGuarantees:Determineascheduleofguaranteedprices("tariffs")tobeofferedtosuppliersofrenewableenergy,basedonestimatesofcurrentandfuturecosts. The tariffs offered to new entrants in the market would decline by apredetermined amount every year, converging on the target price by the targetyear. This tariff schedule would provide a strong incentive for acceleratedinvestmentanddevelopmentofinstalledcapacityinthenearterm.

3. Determine Host Country Contributions: Create a formula for estimating theshare of the feed‐in‐tariff to be paid by the host country. This formulawould berelated to per capita income in each country, the cost of specific renewable andconventionalalternatives,domesticinvestmentcapacity,andotherrelevantfactors.

4. EstablishaGlobal InvestmentFund forRenewables:Aglobal investment fundfor renewable energy is essential for underwriting the gap between the feed‐in‐tariffsthatneedtobeofferedtosupplierstomakerenewablescompetitive,andtheshareofthesubsidythatcanbecontributedbyhostcountries.Theinvestmentfundwillguarantee–forafixedperiodoftime–asubsidizedpriceforthedeliveryofnewrenewableenergyindevelopingcountries.

5. Provide Additional Support to the LeastDeveloped Countries: Support couldincludelowinterestloans,e.g., forgridexpansion,financialassistanceforcapacitybuildingandinstitutionaldevelopment,technicalassistance,orsubsidizedaccesstotechnologicalinformation.

6. Create Mechanisms to Serve Off­Grid Communities: Offer special provisionswithin theglobal financingscheme tosupport renewableenergydevelopment foroff‐gridcommunities,e.g.,supplementarysubsidiesorassistanceforbuildinglocalgrids.

7. Create aNetwork of Innovation Centers: Building on the analogy of the GreenRevolution, establish anetworkof research and extension centers thatwill adapttechnical knowledge to local conditions, and make that knowledge available topolicymakers,investors,andcommunities.

8. Create a Global Climate Conservation Corps: Learning from the lessons ofseveral successful large‐scale initiatives – including the Peace Corps, the CivilianConservationCorps,andMédecinsSansFrontiéres–establishandrecruitaglobalbody of skilled practitioners who can support national institutions and serve astheirlinktointernationalexpertsandknowledgebases.

9. Develop theAppropriate InstitutionalArchitecture: Careful attentionmust bepaidtocreatingappropriateinstitutionalvehicles–bothnewandinrelationshiptoexisting bodies – to channel the resources from the global feed‐in fund, throughnationalenergyadministrations,torenewableenergysuppliers.

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Agreement and action on these elements as rapidly as possible, at a global scale,willspeed renewable energy toward its own "global tipping point" – a point of self‐sustainingtake‐offpoweredbyacceleratedlearningandexpandingmarkets.While the GGND is a new, comprehensive strategic approach, it brings together theconvergingconclusionsofseveralrecentglobalanalyses,allofwhichpointtoacentralroleforincreasedpublicinvestmentinrenewableenergy,particularlyinthedevelopingworld (e.g., Stern, 2009; Birdsall and Subramanian, 2009; UNEP‐SEFI, 2009). Thestrategyalsobuildsonwhatisalreadyhappening: successfulmodelsforeachofthesemechanismsexist,inboththedevelopinganddevelopedworld.Anumberofdevelopingcountries (notably China, India, and Brazil) have already established key elements ofsuchpolicy, finance, and technical supportmechanisms.However, the scaleexpansionneededtobringaboutthenecessarycostreductionislargerthanwhatcanbeachievedby these countries acting alone. The GGND will supplement national actions withinternational support,andsimplyenabledevelopingcountries todomore–andmorequickly.The GGND also encourages an even faster diffusion of working models in theindustrializedworld,where countries likeDenmark,Germany, andSpainhave led theway on developing the necessary technologies, policies and programs. These earlyinvestments in renewable energy are already being rewarded with both near‐termfinancialreturnsandlonger‐termcompetitiveness;theGlobalGreenNewDealwillworkto amplify these effects, reward innovative enterprises, expand employmentopportunities in technologically advanced countries, and spread the benefits morerapidlytoothercountries.The GGND ensures long‐run predictability andmarket stability for renewable energyproducersaswellasequipmentsuppliers,andthuscreatesthebasisforeffectivepublic‐privatepartnership,mobilizationoflarge‐scaleprivatesectorresourcesforinvestmentandinnovation,capacityexpansion,andcostreduction.The GGND also ensures that international resources are linked to tangible outputs(deliveryoffinalrenewableenergyservices)ratherthaninputs.Finally, adopting the GGNDwill bringmany benefits of the kind that economists call"intangibles,"but thatarewidelyrecognizedasbothrealandnecessary forsuccess inanyventureofmagnitude.Theseinclude:

• afeelingofhopeandoptimism–specifically,thatlarge‐scaleproblemslikeglobalwarmingandenergypovertycanbesolved;

• an encouragement to entrepreneurship – there are genuine business

opportunitiestopursue;and

• a sense of common strategic focus – on the goal of reducing the price ofrenewableenergy,andacceleratingaglobaltransitiontoacleanenergyfuture.

TheGGNDrepresentsaglobalopportunityforcooperation,foronlybypushingtogether,and pushing hard, can we lower the price of renewable energy enough to lift manymillionsoutofenergypovertyandprovideclean,affordableenergytotheworld.

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The Case for a Global Green New Deal: Changing the Game on Climate, Development, and Energy The GGND represents a new approach to addressing, simultaneously, the problem ofglobalwarmingandtheimperativeofbringingenergyandeconomicdevelopmenttotheworld'spoorestpeoples.Butwhiletheoverallconceptisnew,theelementsoftheGGNDare based on existing models and supported by extensive current research. Thefollowing sections summarize the case for the GGND, explain the underlyingassumptions,anddescribehowthestrategywouldworkinmoredetail.A.Climate,development,andenergyareinterconnectedissues.TherationalefortheGGNDbeginswithafundamentalinsight: climatechangeisnotaproblemthat issomehowsetapart fromotherproblems. Inparticular, it is intimatelyconnected toboth the typeofdevelopmentand theenergypathchosen topower thatdevelopment.Behind theGGND is the followingpostulate: Amassivedeploymentofnonrenewable,fossil‐basedenergytechnologiesinthedevelopedworldiswhatenabledthosecountriestoattainunprecedentedlevelsofprosperitywithinashortspanoftime;butitalsoledtothe current climate dilemma. A rapid and equally massive deployment of clean,renewableenergytechnologiesinthecountriesofthedevelopingworldcanenablethemtoattainsimilarlevelsofprosperityand,whenjoinedtoalarge‐scaleenergyswitchindevelopedcountries,canleadtheworldoutofthatdilemma.The energy needs of the world's poor have long been overlooked in the globaldiscussion on climate change, in terms of both current needs and future planning.(Figure 2) And yet, the poor also represent the world's largest undeveloped energymarket.Today,about1.6billionpeoplelackaccesstoelectricity;and 2.4 billion still cook withfirewood.By2050,therewillbe3billionadditionalpeoplelivingon planet Earth, and the vastmajority of them will berelatively poor urban dwellersin developing countries. If theenergy systems developed toprovidelight,heat,mobility,andother services to all of thesepeoplearebasedonfossil fuels,there will be no possibility ofattaining the emissionreductions necessary tomaintainclimatestability.Providingenergy to theworld'spoorshouldnotmerelybeseenasa"long‐termvision";itisanurgentglobalimperative.Energyservicesarekeyinputstodevelopmentgenerally,andtohumandevelopmentinparticular. Improvements in health, education, and standards of living are closelycorrelated with access to energy. Inadequate and unreliable energy services are

Figure2.DistributionofcountriesshowingthecorrelationbetweenTotalPrimaryEnergySupply(TPES)andscoreontheHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI).Source:UnitedNations,basedonUNDPandIEAdata.

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centrally implicated in the inability to provide clean drinking water or sanitationfacilities.On theotherhand,most low‐costenergysourcesavailable today tomeet theneedsofthepoorareneithercleannorrenewable.Theycontributetogreenhousegasemissionsand often carry with them significant health risks, such as respiratory illness fromexposuretosootparticles.Whenthelow‐costenergyneedsofthepoorareseenasbeinginoppositiontoemissionreduction goals, agreement on a way forward becomes exceedingly difficult. But bylooking at climate change and development as united by a common issue – energy –ratherthandividedbyit,truewin‐winsolutionsbecomepossible.TheGGNDofferssuchawin‐winsolutionintheformofastrategythatmeetstheneedsofdevelopingnations forenergydevelopment,whileacceleratingprogress towardthegoal of a low‐emissions economy for the world as a whole. It functions as a bridgebetweenperspectivesandpriorities,providingeveryoneattheclimatenegotiatingtablewithacommongoal:theprovisionofclean,affordable,renewableenergytoall.B. The world has a common interest in reducing the price of

renewableenergy,worldwide,asrapidlyaspossible.Thenext10‐20yearsareacriticalwindowfortheimplementationoftheGGND,becausesomuchnewenergydevelopmentwillbeplannedandimplementedduringthisperiod.If renewableenergy is to contributea significantportionofnewenergydevelopment,especiallyinthedevelopingworld,reducingitspriceisessential.AsofAugust2005,about1.4billionpeopleinthedevelopingworldwerelivingonlessthan$1.25perday(theWorldBank’spovertyline).However,evenpeoplelivingontendollarsperdaycannotafford tobuyadequateamountsof renewableelectricityat thecurrent price per kilowatt‐hour, which ranges from about 36 cents from solarphotovoltaicpanels toas lowas10cents fromawindturbine.For low‐incomepeoplearoundtheworld,energythatcostsmorethan3‐5centsperkilowatt‐hourissimplynotaffordable;andsointheabsenceofsubsidiesrenewableenergywillnotbetheirchoice.From a developing country perspective, a strategy of simply increasing the price ofconventionalenergytomakerenewableenergymorecompetitivemakesnosense.Norcanthegovernmentsofdevelopingandemerging‐marketcountriesaffordtosubsidizerenewable energy on a large scale, given current costs and per capita incomes.Meanwhile, in the developed world, the strategy of simply waiting for themarket toproduce competitive renewable energy, and greenhouse gas emission reductions, hasalso been "failing to deliver" (The Economist, 15 October 2009, citing Committee onClimateChange,2009).Tomakeprogressatapacethatcanwintheraceagainsttimewithglobalwarming,weneed a global strategy for reducing the price of renewable energy, everywhere. Thisrequires accelerating the process by which the price of these new technologies isalreadyfalling:thatis,byscalingup.For example, in Europe today, every time the amount of wind generation capacitydoubles, the price of electricity produced bywind turbines falls by 9 to 17% (Krohn,EuropeanWindEnergyAssociation, 2009).With eachnewwind turbine, the industry

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learnshowtomakethesemachinesmoreefficientlyandmoreeffectively, thusdrivingdown the costs per kilowatt‐hour. Economists call this effect a "learning curve": themorerenewableenergygeneratingcapacitygetsinstalled,themorewelearnabouthowtoproducerenewableenergy,andthelessexpensiveitbecomes.Such steep and beneficial learning curves are associated with several so‐called“emerging technologies”, including wind energy, solar photovoltaic and concentratedsolarenergy(Figure3). Incontrast, “mature technologies”, suchasHydroPPL(Figure3), have stable cost curves with relatively small opportunities for further costreductions.Currentevidencesuggestsaverylargepotentialforcostreductionsinwindand solar energy. There is even evidence to suggest that their learning curves arechanging in favorableways, creating the prospect that a virtuous cycle of investmentscale‐upandcostreductionwillhappenevenfasterthancurrentanalysesmightpredict.Forexample,aconsortiumofsolarcellcompaniesinChinahastwicerevisedestimatesonthespeedofcostreductionjustsince2007.Theyhavemoveduptheplannedtargetyeartoachieveagovernmenttargetprice($0.146perkWh)from2020to2012,becauseofunexpectedlyfasttechnologicaladvancesandlowerpolysiliconprices(Saber,2009).Relatedly, studieson the costsof compliancewithgovernmentenvironmentalpoliciesand regulations support the conclusion that ex ante costs are often overestimatedbecause of a failure to take into account scale economies and technological advances(EC2005).Although learning rates haveoccasionally been described interms of the cost decline peryear,theirprimarydriveristheinstalled capacity. (Figure 3)Thatis,pricesfallwithgrowinginstalled capacity because ofsuch factorsasa largermarket,greater market stability andpredictability, standardizationof equipment and componentproduction, competitionamongst suppliers, improveddesigns,andlearningbydoing.In sum, one can accelerateprogressdownalearningcurveby speeding up the increase ininstalled capacity. The GGNDproposes to do just that, byreducing the primary barrier standing between developing countries and currentrenewable energy technologies: their relatively high price. Using public investmentsand subsidies to reduce the price to rough parity with fossil fuels, combined with astable policy environment and technical support,will remove themajor constraint toacceleratinginstalledcapacity.Itwillalsounlockwavesofdemandanddrivetherapiddeploymentofthesetechnologies. Asthetechnologiesspread,industriesscaleup,andcapacitydoublingtimesdecrease,thenpriceswillfall,followingthewell‐knownpatternofthelearningcurve.HavingdescribedthedriveroftheGGND–thetechnologylearningcurve–wenowturntotheaccelerator:pricesupports.

Figure3.Thegreatertheinstalledcapacityofanenergytechnology,thelowerpriceforeverynewunitinstalled.(Source:Nakicenovic,IIASA,2009)

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C. A globally coordinated program of price support guarantees for

renewable energy will unleash a transformation in the globalenergysector.

Countrieshaveusedavarietyofmechanisms topromote renewableenergy, includingdirectpublic investment, investment incentives (e.g., low interest rates, taxwrite‐offs,accelerated depreciation), portfolio obligations, and feed‐in‐tariffs. While all policymechanismshavehadtheirshareofsuccess,themostdramaticexpansioninrenewableenergy capacitywaswitnessed under the feed‐in‐tariff programs enacted in GermanyandSpain."Feed‐intariffs"obligateelectricitygridstopurchaserenewableenergyasitbecomes available (to "feed it in"), and theyoffer topotential providers of renewableenergy a guaranteedprice (the "tariff," or ratepaid for the electricity).The tariffs aregenerally fixed for a givenperiod, between10 and20 years, at levels that ensure theprofitabilityoftheinvestment.Theexistenceofaguaranteethatsuccessfuldevelopmentof a solar orwind energy installationwill be rewardedwith a customer aswell as asubsidized price essentially levels the playing field, removing the cost barrier torenewableenergydevelopmentincomparisontofossil‐fuel‐basedtechnologies.The effectiveness of the feed‐intariff policy is by now well‐established. Astudycomparingthe effect of these policies toother policy mechanismsdesigned to support the spreadofwind energy found that theyresulted in 7­8 times as muchinstalled wind capacity.(European Commission, asreported by Thomas B.Johansson, Chair, Global EnergyAssessment) (Figure 4) Theoverall success of the German,Spanish, Danish and othernational‐level feed‐in programshas inspired similar initiatives inChina and,more recently, SouthAfrica and India, aswellasbyregionalandstategovernmentsintheUK,US,andAustralia.Todaywellover50countriesnowhave feed‐intariff lawsonthebooks,andsmaller‐scaleexperimentsarenowaglobalphenomenon.Of thedifferent options to support renewable energy, the feed‐in tariff is increasinglyseenas the “policyof choice” thatprovides themostbenefit at least cost (DBClimateChangeAdvisors,2009). It canbeappliedconsistentlyand transparently,whilebeingreadilyadaptedtodifferentspecificconditionsindifferentcountries.Wherefeed‐intariffshavebeenemployedindevelopingcountries,theyoftenhavetobeaccompaniedbygovernmentbudgetaryallocationstocoverthedifferentialbetweentheguaranteed price that the utility pays to the renewable energy suppliers, and theaverageratethatitisallowedtochargeconsumersforeachkilowatt‐hourofelectricity.Thisdependenceonnationalbudgets to cover thedifferenceplacesa capon the totalexpansion of renewable energy that can take place in a developing country, and thuscreates a disincentive for expanded renewable energy investment. International

Figure4.Countriesusingfeed­intariffscomparedtocountriesusingotherformsofpolicysupportforwindenergy.(Source:EuropeanCommission,2008,citedbyJohansson,2009)

Figure4.Countriesusingfeed­intariffscomparedtocountriesusingotherformsofpolicysupportforwindenergy.(Source:EuropeanCommission,2008,citedbyJohansson,2009)

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financingtosupportthetariff,orpriceguarantee,willremovethisconstraintandcreatehighly favorable conditions for accelerating renewable energy investment anddevelopment.As thephrase itself indicates, feed‐in‐tariffpolicieshavebeenemployedexclusively inregard to grid connections. Given the current level of grid development in mostdeveloping countries, the policy frameworkwould need to be amended to be able toincludeoff‐gridareasaswell.In practical terms, the GGND involves linking the demonstrated favorability andeffectiveness of feed‐in‐tariff policies with the rapidly growing energy needs ofdeveloping countries, offering suitable mechanisms for finance, policy, and technicalsupportforrapidscale‐up. Itdeliverstherightmixofpolicyandmarketstabilitythat,accordingtorecentresearchsummarizedbySternetal.,cancreatethehighestpossibleleverage for public financing, mobilizing up to 15 times the original investment inadditional,follow‐onfunding(Stern,2009,andUNEPSEFI,2009).The GGND Road Map (page 6) brings together elements of successful programs,including feed‐in‐tariffs as well as other complementary actions, in such a way as toaccelerate the process of policy design and technology diffusion and adoption that isalreadyoccurring,removemajorbarriersandobstacles,andadapttheprogrambothtointernationalrequirementsandlocalconditions.As mentioned in the GGND Road Map (Paragraph 4), a new global investment fundneeds to be established to contribute the global share of the subsidy for renewableenergy services and supplement the national guarantees offered by each country. Assuch, the Fund will reduce uncertainty and ensure predictability in the renewableenergyindustry.Onceitisinplaceandadequatelyresourced,itwouldhelpstimulatearapid and massive expansion in the market for solar, wind and other renewabletechnologies – and speed them toward an economic tipping point, after which theywouldbeontracktobecomethedominantenergyoptionontheplanet.The price supportmechanisms need to be structured in such away as to reward themostefficientrenewableenergysuppliersandtogivethemanincentivetoreducecostsasrapidlyaspossible.TheconceptofadecliningtariffschedulementionedintheGGNDRoadMap(Paragraph2)seekstoensurethisbystipulatingthatpricesupportsdeclineanddisappearwithinadefinedperiodof time(10‐20years).Producerswouldrace toenterthemarketaheadofthedecliningsubsidyandestablishtheircompetitivepositioninthemarketplace.Whereappropriate,countriescouldchooseadditionalpolicies(suchasrenewableportfoliostandardsandinnovativefinancingofupfrontcosts)thatwouldencourage utilities and local governments to be more proactive in cooperating withrenewableenergysuppliers.If the GGND were launched immediately, the economics and the technologies of theworld energy sector could be transformed by 2025. With renewable energy costsbecoming competitive with fossil fuels, subsidies could soon be discontinued. Themajority of theworld's poorwouldhave access to energy fromaffordable, renewablesources–thenewdefaultoption.

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D. A large‐scale global investment in renewable energy will bringmultipleeconomic, social,andenvironmentalbenefits–especiallytothedevelopingworld.

The GGND would transform the global economy, to the great benefit of peopleeverywhere. For example, renewable energy is a much more effective engine foremploymentcreationthanfossil‐fuelbasedenergyproduction:researchsuggeststhatitproducestwotothreetimesasmanyjobs,incomparisonwithconventionalfossil‐basedenergydevelopment.(PollinandGarrett‐Peltier,2008)Windandsolarenergysystemsdohavetheproblemofintermittency–thatis,theyarelessavailablewhenthewindisnotblowingorwhenthesunisobscured–andthiswillneedtobeaddressedinthecomingdecadeasthescaling‐upprocessgainsspeed. Buttechnology is also advancing in the area of energy storage. Initially, the expansion ofintermittent renewable technologies might need to be accompanied by additionalconsumer guidance on tailoring demand to availability, as is often provided in manydeveloping countries whose energy systems are subject to frequent serviceinterruptions. More generally, renewable energy is also viewed as a more resilient,reliable,andsafetechnology: windandsolar‐basedsystemsbreakdownfarlessoftenthanfossil‐fuelcombustion‐basedsystems,theyaresimpler,lessdangeroustooperate,andfarlesspolluting.For energy importers (a term that includes all but a handful of countries), economicstabilitywillalsobenefitfromcreatingaglobalenergysectorthatisfarlessreliantonimports.Poorcountriesespeciallywillbeshieldedfromtheimpactsontheirbalanceofpaymentsandgrowthprospectsfromglobalpriceswingsandpeaks.The reduction in fossil‐fuel emissions will also bring significant health benefits byreducingexposuretopollutantslikesootandground‐levelozone.Andwhilerenewableenergy installations takeupspaceon the landor in thewater, thiscanbemanaged inwaysthatareminimallydisruptivetonaturalecosystems.Private companies producing and installing renewable energy technologies, and theprivate banks and international financial institutions that finance them, are alreadysignificantbeneficiariesof theworld's transition towardrenewableenergy.TheGGNDwouldcertainlyacceleratethattrendaswell. Butalsobenefittingwouldbecompaniesthatprovidematerial inputsforproductionofrenewableenergy,aswellascompaniesprovidingsuchassociatedservicesassmartgriddevelopment,smartmetering,energystorageandbatteries.Thesetechnologieswouldgetasignificantboostasaby‐productoftheGGND,fromprivateinvestorsaswellasfrominternationalfinancinginstitutionssuchastheWorldBankandregionaldevelopmentbanks(whowouldplayacrucialrolein financing the development of smart grids, for example). All of this additionaleconomic activity would further accelerate the "virtuous cycle" of investment andtechnologyimprovement.AGGNDcouldbeanengineof true"greengrowth," improvingper‐capita incomesandemploymentincountriesaroundtheworld.Thegreaterlevelsofjobgeneration,energyreliability, technology advance, and economic stability, together with reducedvulnerability to fossil‐fuel price fluctuations, can be expected to support the world'slong‐termrecoveryfromtherecentfinancialcrisis.Overall, the GGND is expected to put the future world economy on a more solidfoundation for long‐term sustainable development. This expectation is supported by

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United Nations economic models looking at the impact of high levels of publicinvestmentinlow‐emissionsenergy(WorldEconomicandSocialSurvey2009)aswellas relevant case studies. In Germany, for example, approximately 280,000 jobs havebeencreatedinrenewableenergy–two‐thirdsofthemasadirectresultofthecountry'srenewableenergylaws.Andtherateofjobgrowthisstillincreasing.(GermanMinistryofEnvironment,2009)E. Direct public investment and investment support are essential;

offsets and other market mechanisms focused on the price ofcarbonarenotsufficienttoachievethegoal.

ThelogicoftheGGNDisstraightforward.Toaddressclimatechange,renewableenergymust be made both competitive and affordable. To do this, the installed capacity ofrenewableenergymustbeexpanded.Toexpandcapacity,therewillbeaneedforsomeform of subsidy in the near term, either from governments or from consumers.Subsidiesforrenewableenergyarehappeningtoday,butinanuncoordinatedmanner.Newenergyinfrastructureisbeingbuiltrapidlyindevelopingcountries,buttheshareofrenewable energy is limited by the lack of financial and technological resources.Effectiveglobalcooperationintheformofadditionalfinancialresourcesandtechnologytransferwillbeneededtoscaleupthenationaleffortstotherequiredlevel.The GGND supports simultaneous investment in two global goods, namely, social andeconomicdevelopmentbasedonrenewableenergy,andclimatestabilization.Itinvolvespublicinvestmentinenergyinfrastructureaswellasinvestmentsupporttorenewableenergy suppliers, to ensure adequate private rewards for supplying these socialbenefits. Itoffers a straightforwardbusinessproposition:dowellbydoinggood.Fornational economies, this large‐scale investment in bringing renewable energy to thedevelopingworld andmaking it universally affordablewill bring benefits, in terms ofemployment,growth,greatermacroeconomicstabilityandenergysecurity.Specific options for mobilizing international finance for green energy investments indevelopingcountrieshavealreadybeguntobeexploredanddescribedinseveralrecentinstitutionalandindependentstudies(Stern,2009;Avato,2008;Mendonça,2007;UNEPSEFI, 2009). Some of the mechanisms to raise the funds might include: traditionalgovernment treasury bonds, "green" bonds linked to renewable energy investments,auctioningofnationalorinternationalCO2emissionallowances,carbontaxes,leviesoninternational passenger and freight transport, a tax on financial transactions, anallocationofdevelopedcountrySDRs,tonameafew.CarefulreviewoftheseandotheroptionswouldbeamongthefirstordersofbusinessinplanningtheimplementationofaGlobal Renewable Energy Fund,with the likely conclusion involving amix of options.Complementaryinvestmentsingriddevelopment(e.g.,transmissionlinesfromsolarorwindinstallationstocities)inthedevelopingcountrieswouldlikelybefinancedthroughexistingmechanisms and agencies such as theWorldBank and regional developmentbanks.Of course, theneed forpolicydirectionandenhancedpublic support to investment inrenewable energy is not limited to the developing world. As noted above, the moststrikingsuccesses inswitchingtorenewableenergyhavetakenplace incountriesthatadopted feed‐in tariff programs. Similarly, as cited earlier, recent analyses in the UKsuggest that efforts to reduce carbon emissions by relying primarily on the marketdeliveronlyafractionofthedesiredresult(CommitteeonClimateChange,1999).Whilecap‐and‐trade programs, carbon offset purchases, carbon taxes, and other economic

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instrumentswillcontinuetobehelpfuladditionstothepolicymix,theyappearunableon their own to stimulate the development of the market for carbon‐free energysolutions at anything like the required pace to address climate change by makingrenewableenergyaffordabletothepoor.Estimateson the scaleof investment required tobringabouta true transformation inthe global energy sector vary, but a preliminary review of current learning curveanalysessuggeststhat investmentsatthe levelofapproximately$100billionperyear,deployed over a fifteen‐year period, would be sufficient to increase the installedcapacityofrenewableenergytothepointwherecostsweredrawndowntothelevelofaffordability in developing countries. That is, in the next fifteen to twenty years(dependingonhowquicklyinvestmentswererampedup),cleanandrenewableenergycouldcomedowntothe3‐5cents‐per‐kilowatt‐hourlevelthatwouldputitinreachofnearlyeveryoneontheplanet(Seebox,page3).AdoptionandimplementationoftheGlobalGreenNewDealisnotdependentonraisingthat level of investment immediately. Themechanisms described here can be put inplace at lower levels of investment, and then ramped up over a 3‐5 year period (forexample), as additional information becomes available on how thesemechanisms areworkingandasconfidencegrowsintheireffectiveness.Still,therearepayoffstoearlyandrapidscale‐up(that is, to front‐loading investments),both inprogressing towardstheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)and inavoidingdangerousclimatechange.Eachyear’sdelayinreducingemissionsaddssignificantlytothecosts–andreducesthechances – of avoiding dangerous climate change (AVOID, Met Office Hadley Center,2009). But inability to mobilize funds for $100 billion‐per‐year investments at theoutset isnot a reason to forego this significantopportunity to cooperate in creatingasustainableenergyfuture.A"globalfeed‐intariff"programofpricesupportforrenewable‐generatedelectricityisapayment‐on‐deliverymechanism;fundsflowonlywhentheelectricitycomesonline,that is,whenrealand tangiblebenefitsarebeingprovided. Experience suggests thattheexistenceofan internationallyguaranteedpricesupport forrenewableenergywilladdressthetraditionalissuesofinvestorconfidenceassociatedwithrenewableenergy,opening the door to private bank lending and other debt financiers of new capacity.(Experience in Spain suggests that banks and other financers see investments inrenewableenergy,backedupbyafeed‐intariff,asverysafe;andDeutscheBanknotesthat “within a consistent and durable integrated policy framework incentives such asfeed‐intariffsareakeydriverofinvestability”(DBClimateChangeAdvisors,2009).)F. A complementary global program of coordinated policy guidance

andlarge‐scaleextensionactivitieswillensuresuccess.While price is the principal obstacle to the spread of renewable energy in both thedevelopedandthedevelopingworld,itisnottheonlyone.TheGlobalGreenNewDealincludes a commitment to a large‐scale program of policy and extension support.Creatingapredictableenablingenvironmentfortherapidspreadofthesetechnologiesis an essential element for the success of this strategy. Thesehavebeen addressed inPoints7,8,and9oftheRoadMapdescribedabove.Models for globally coordinated extension programs do exist. The Green Revolution,notwithstandingitsenvironmentalandsocialdrawbacks,doesprovideanexampleofaglobal strategy that delivered new technologies from the hands of a few hundred

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scientiststomillionsofpoorfarmers(mostofwhomwereilliterate)inpoorcountriesatabreathtakingspeedandscale.Theinnovationsincludedtheestablishmentofresearchinstitutesandextensionprogramstoassistfarmersandotheragriculturalsectoractorswith the adoption of new seeds and growing methods. These programs also helpedcreateintegratedsystemsofpolicy,technology,andcapacitythatensuredrapiduptakeandresulted,asiswidelyknown,ingreatlyincreasedagriculturalyields.Point 7 of the Road Map (“Create a Network of Innovation Centers”) envisages thecreationofa similarnetworkof institutesandcenters to supportboth thedesignandharmonizationofpolicyandtheadoptionandadaptationofsuitablerenewableenergytechnologies.While the funding and goal‐settingwill be global, the implementationofthe actual policies and energy systems must happen at the national level, with fullrespectfornationaldifferencesandpreferences.Tofurtheracceleratetheprocess,Point8oftheRoadMapproposestheestablishmentofa"GlobalClimateConservationCorps,"aglobalcorpsofexpertsandextensionagentswho could back up the national institutions, provide training, technical support, andhelping hands. Ideally, experts in universities, technical institutions, industryassociations, and volunteer networks could bemobilized through financial support aswell asnetworkdevelopment toparticipate in a global enterprise.Participants in thisprogram could be drawn from young entrants to related professions, experiencedprofessionals, and highly‐skilled retirees from both the developing and developedworld.Forsome,themotivationtoparticipatewouldbetheidealofservice;forothers,especiallyyoungpeoplefromdevelopingcountries,theprogramwouldserveason‐the‐job training and an employment opportunity. It would also help to accelerate thedevelopmentofthenextgenerationoftechnicalexpertstoservicearapidlyexpandingindustry.Sincerenewableenergyinstallationscanbedecentralizedandsmall‐scale,mechanismsand policies are needed to accommodate small‐scale and off‐grid installations,particularly in developing countries (see Point 6 of the Road Map). While large,industrial‐scale installations of solar, wind, and other technologies are central to theGlobal Green New Deal, the extension model is ideally suited to this additionaldecentralizeddimensionandmediumandsmallscaleinstallations.These programs, in addition to materially supporting and accelerating theimplementation of a renewable energy revolution,will create a global feeling of hopeandinspiration–intangiblesthatareimportanttomeetingthechallengesweface.Inatimewhentheworldislockedinaliteralraceagainsttime,withboththeeradicationofpovertyandtherestorationofclimatestabilityasconjoinedgoals,theseprogramsofon‐the‐groundcooperationmayproveasimportanttosuccessasfinancialinvestmentsandtechnicaladvances.G. Both renewable energy technologies and complementary

technologieswillbeadaptedtonationalsituations.Although explicitmention has beenmade above ofwind turbines, solar photo‐voltaicarrays,solarheatconcentrators,waveandtidalenergyconvertors,andotheremergingrenewabletechnologiespowered(ultimately)byincomingsolarradiation,anumberofother technologies would be needed to achieve success. As noted earlier, the GGNDwould include measures to support the adoption and diffusion of complementarytechnologies.Theseinclude:

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"Smartgrids"and"smartmeters."Thesearenowpickingupspeed inthedevelopedworld and should also be the focus of leapfrog technology efforts in the developingworld.Efficiency technologies. In thebuilding sector, rapid advances arepermittingdrasticreductionsintheenergyneedsofbothnewandretrofittedhousing.Light,heat,cooling,and other energy‐dependent services can now be provided at fractions of previouselectricityconsumption,dependingonthedesignsandmaterialsusedandthemethodsemployed. The GGND should include mechanisms that encourage an equally rapidspreadinthesetechnologiesaswell.Selectedspecificandacutepriorities. TheGGNDcouldpotentiallyincludeprovisionsto address a limited number of non‐grid but energy‐related issues that have beenidentified as acute, global‐scale problems, such as the black soot emitted by cookingfires (which is both a serious health hazard and a dangerous addition to globalwarming). TheextensionprogramoftheGGNDcould, forexample,beusedinconcertwithpolicyandfinancemechanismstoplanandaccelerateaconversiontocleanerandmore sustainable cooking technologies. Indeed, the green revolution extensionmodelappears well‐suited to fostering adoption of new cooking technology by hundreds ofmillionsofdispersedruralhouseholds.Finally,theproposednetworkofresearchandpolicyinstitutionswouldkeepacloseandcontinuouseyeoninnovationsanddevelopmentsemergingaroundtheglobe.Itwouldprovide analyses on new opportunities to further improve the implementation of theprogramwithbettertechnologiesandadditionalpolicysupport. Seizing the Opportunity for an Energy Transformation Atthishistoricaljuncture,theinternationalcommunityofnationsfacesunprecedentedchallenges.Itmustfindawaytoaddressthefollowingsimultaneously:tostimulateandsustain global economic recovery, to end poverty, and to avert dangerous climatechange. The GGND is a strategy designed to contribute substantially to all threeobjectives. While there aredetails remaining to bedeveloped, thebroadoutlines areclear.Addressingthecloselylinkedchallengesofclimatechange,sustainableeconomicdevelopment, and global energy poverty will require greatly enhanced levels ofcooperationamongnations– a requirement that in itself couldgenerateverypositiveimpactsintermsofglobalunderstanding,trust,andcollaboration.Thetransformationoftheworld'senergysectorisanopportunitynottobemissed.Theword "transformation" can often be misused but, in this case, the term is bothappropriateandtimely. Atransformationintheglobalenergysector isnotoptional ifwearetoconfrontthechallengesweface,especiallythatofavertingdangerousclimatechange.Therapidgrowthinenergydemandindevelopingcountriesandaninevitabledeclineintheavailabilityofcheapandabundantoilmakeanearlystartonarenewableenergytransformationallthemoreimperative.A global‐scale combination of targeted price supports, policy coordination, andextensionprogramstorampuprenewablesoverthenext10‐20yearshasthepotentialtomakethetransformationhappen.Bypushingdownthepriceofrenewableenergy,wecanraiselivingstandardsofpoorpeople,boostoureconomiesandsignificantlyincreaseourchancesoflivinginaworldofrelativeclimatestability.

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It is realistic to imagine that implementation of this strategy could begin within twoyears of the conclusion of the Copenhagen climate summit (CoP‐15). Internationaldialogue necessarily takes time, but two years would be adequate for an acceleratedprogramof fashioning the relevant global policy agreements, thoroughly investigatingthefinancingoptions,anddrawinguptheappropriate institutionaldesigns. Thistwo‐year period of implementation planning would afford the opportunity for additionalresearch and refinement as well as pilot testing, drawing on examples and modelsaroundtheworld,ofthosemechanismsandprogramsenvisionedunderthisstrategy.Itwould give the international community the opportunity to establish, in time for the20thanniversaryoftheUnitedNationsConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopment,afullyconvincingandconfidence‐inspiringresponsetothechallengesacknowledgedandthepromisesmadeinAgenda21.Great global transitions do not happen instantaneously. Years of visionary thinking,innovative actions, andmany small steps seem toproduceonlymarginal results for aperiodoftime;butoncetheyreachatippingpoint,theircollectiveimpactgeneratesanacceleratingvirtuouscycle,andtheoutcomebecomesoverwhelminglygreaterthanthesumoftheinitialincrementalsteps.So it can bewith the adoption and implementation of this strategy. The incrementalactions of nations, international institutions, and initiatives large and small, in thepublic,private,andcivil societysectors,overmanyyears,havepaved theway for thisopportunity.Thepartsareallthere.Itistimetosumthemup–tomakeabigpushthatwillcarryusbeyondthetippingpoint–andtoachieveanimpactgreaterthanwhatwecurrentlybelievetobepossible.ThetimehascomeforaGlobalGreenNewDeal.

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DB Climate Change Advisors ‐ Deutsche Bank (2009). Global Climate Change PolicyTracker.Ekins‐Daukes, Dr. N.J. (2009). Solar energy for heat and electricity: the potential formitigatingclimatechange.GranthamInstituteforClimateChange,BriefingpaperNo1,June2009.EuropeanCommission(EC)(2005).Literaturereviewonex­postassessmentofcoststobusiness of environmental policies and legislation, September,http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/ex_post/pdf/literature.pdfEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre ‐ Renewable Energy Unit (2009). PVStatusReport2009.German Ministry of Environment (Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums furUmwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit) (2009). Gross Employment fromRenewableEnergyinGermanyintheYear2008:Afirstestimate.InternationalEnergyAgency‐IEA(2009).WorldEnergyOutlook2009.Jacobson, Mark Z. and Mark Delucchi (2009). A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030.ScientificAmerican,November2009,p.58‐65.Johansson, Thomas B. (2009). Presentation at side event, "Toward a Low‐CarbonDevelopmentPath,"BarcelonaClimateChangeTalks,5November2009.Krohn, Søren (editor), Poul‐Erik Morthorst, and Shimon Awerbuch (2009). TheEconomicsofWindEnergy.EuropeanWindEnergyAssociation.Mendonça,Miguel(2007).Feed­inTariffs:AcceleratingtheDeploymentofRenewableEnergy.London:Earthscan.Nakicenovic, N. (2009). Technology Learning in SRES. Paper presented to the DelhiHighLevelConferenceonClimateChange:TechnologyDevelopmentandTransfer.Pollin,RobertandHeidiGarrett‐Peltier(2007).TheU.S.EmploymentEffectsofMilitaryand Domestic Spending Priorities. Political Economic Research Institute, AmherstUniversity,WorkingPaper151.ProjectCatalyst(2009).ScalingupClimateFinance:Financebriefingpaper,September.Saber,Khalifa(2009).ChinaPlanstoCutCostofSolarPowerto$0.146perkWhin2012.altdotenergy.com,13February2009.<http://tinyurl.com/bnzy3k>Stern, Nicholas, discussion coordinator (2009). Meeting the Climate Challenge: UsingPublic Funds to Leverage Private Investment in Developing Countries. Output of apublic/private discussion coordinated by Lord Nicholas Stern, Chair of the GranthamInstitute for Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics.<http://www2.lse.ac.uk/granthamInstitute/news/MeetingtheClimateChallenge.aspx>Stern,Nicholas(2006).TheSternReviewontheEconomicsofClimateChange.Cambridge,UnitedKingdom:CambridgeUniversityPress.

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UnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs (UN/DESA)(2009). WorldEconomicandSocialSurvey2009:PromotingDevelopment,SavingthePlanet.United Nations Environment Program, Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative (UNEPSEFI) (2009). Public Finance Mechanisms to mobilise investment in climate changemitigation: An overview of mechanisms being used today to help scale up the climatemitigationmarkets,withaparticularfocusonthecleanenergysector.AdvanceDraft.