A Geographic Analysis of Making Connections Movers:

Preliminary ResultsNed English, Colm O’Muircheartaigh, Cathy Haggerty,

and Erika Garcia

Presented at the Urban Institute 09/07/06

2

Introduction

• Making Connections collects longitudinal data• Households move often

33% renters moved in previous year (2003 CPS)• What are the implications for Making Connections

and subsequent policy decisions? Who, how many move? Where, how far do they go? Do Making Connections residents move to similar

areas? What do movers tell us?

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Analytical Approach

• Compare original location to destination Examine distance Analyze neighborhood characteristics of each

• Use quex data to examine categories of movers:1. Race/Ethnicity2. Housing tenure (renter or not)3. Nativity (born in US or not)

Derive information beyond questionnaire Implications for survey operations and future

research interests

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Methodology

• Making Connections maintains addresses for both waves From list in wave 1 Located in wave 2

• Employ GIS software to: Geocode locations based on address Calculate distance between both points Append census boundaries to each location

• Merge census data and run comparisons using statistical software

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Background- Scale of Movement

Site No-Child HHds Moved

Child HHds moved

Overall HHds

Moved

Denver 51.2% 64.6% 57.2%

Indianapolis

43.0% 68.2% 55.6%

Des Moines 45.6% 55.0% 50.4%

San Antonio

27.4% 53.5% 43.6%

42.9% 59.8% 51.7%

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Urbanicity of Destinations

Site % Metro All Completes

% Metro All Completes Beyond

County

Denver 97.8% 89.7%

Indianapolis 99.1% 91.7%

Des Moines 93.8% 64.7%

San Antonio 100.0% 100.0%

97.7% 83.1%

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Child Mover Complete Destinations

Site % Neigh % City % County

% Beyond

Denver 21.3% 47.2% NA 28.9%

Indianapolis 25.5% 58.5% 5.2% 12.4%

Des Moines 34.0% 43.3% 5.2% 17.5%

San Antonio

55.9% 39.8% 3.1% 1.0%

34.0% 47.5% 3.4% 15.1%

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Poverty in Origin vs. Destination by Site

Site Median % Poverty by Tract Wave

1

Median % Poverty by

Tract Wave 2

Denver (n = 89) 47.7 % 17.6 %

Indianapolis (n = 106)

27.1 % 17.9 %

Des Moines (n = 97) 25.7 % 12.0 %

San Antonio (n = 93)

33.4 % 28.1 %

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Poverty in origin vs. Destination by Mover Characteristics

Characteristics Median % Poverty Wave

1

Median % Poverty Wave 2

Within Neighborhood (n

=131)

30.2% 28.1%

Within City (n =183) 28.1% 13.8%

Within County (n =13)

25.6% 4.8%

Beyond (n = 58) 29.6% 8.2%

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Movers in Denver County, CO and Surrounding Area

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Movers in Polk County, IA and Surrounding Area

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Movers in Marion County, IN and Surrounding Area

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Movers in Bexar County, TX and Surrounding Area

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All Distances- by Category

Site Median Complete (mi)

Median NIR (mi)

Median Aged-Out

(mi)

Denver 2.6 8.3 3.4

Indianapolis 3.1 9.1 3.2

Des Moines 2.4 3.3 2.7

San Antonio 2.5 7.7 12.5

2.5 7.8 3.9

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All Distances- by Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity Median Complete

(mi)

Median NIR (mi)

Median Aged-Out

(mi)

White non-Hispanic

3.9 6.1 2.9

Asian non-Hispanic

2.8 3.7 NA

Other 2.5 12.6 2.3

Hispanic 2.3 7.8 5.4

African American non-Hispanic

2.2 8.3 6.6

2.5 7.8 3.9

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Results- % Minority in origin vs. Destination Tract by Site

Site City Percent Minority

Median %

Minority Wave 1

Median % Minority Wave 2

Des Moines (n = 97) 20.1 % 47.0% 19.5%

Indianapolis (n = 109)

32.5 % 71.3% 35.8%

Denver (n = 89) 48.0 % 88.9% 63.5%

San Antonio (n = 93) 68.2 % 97.7% 94.1%

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Results- % Minority in origin vs. Destination by Mover Characteristics

Characteristics Median % Minority by

Tract Wave 1

Median % Minority by

Tract Wave 2

Within Neighborhood (n =

131)

92.3% 92.3%

Within City (n = 183)

88.9% 48.7%

Within County (n = 13)

50.3% 14.2%

Beyond (n = 58) 77.0% 16.7%

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Compare origin and Destination Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity Wave 1 Poverty

Wave 2 Poverty

Wave 1 Minority

Wave 2 Minorit

y

White non-Hispanic (n =

92)

26.0% 10.2% 39.4% 13.7%

African American non-

Hispanic (n = 95)

27.5% 20.8% 88.9% 59.5%

Hispanic (n= 163)

32.9% 25.7% 94.1% 84.1%

Asian non-Hispanic (n =

6)

17.0% 9.6% 69.2% 21.0%

Other (n = 29) 29.6% 16.0% 92.3% 71.4%

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Compare origin and Destination by Housing Tenure

Housing Tenure

Wave 1 Poverty

Wave 2 Poverty

Wave 1 Minority

Wave 2

Minority

Own (n = 46)

26.3% 10.4% 76.9% 26.1%

Other (n = 339)

30.2% 21.2% 88.9% 60.9%

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Compare origin and Destinationby Nativity

Country of Birth

Wave 1 Poverty

Wave 2 Poverty

Wave 1 Minority

Wave 2 Minority

US (n = 314) 29.6% 19.6% 88.9% 55.6%

Other (n = 71)

27.5% 22.0% 88.9% 61.0%

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Wave 2 Percent Poverty by Distance Moved- Denver

Wave 2 Poverty by Distance in Denver

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0.05

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0.15

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0.25

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0.35

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0.45

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0 2 4 6 8 10

Distance Traveled (mi)

Per

cen

t P

ove

rty

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Wave 2 Percent Poverty by Distance Moved- Des Moines

Wave 2 Poverty by Distance in Des Moines

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Distance Traveled (mi)

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Wave 2 Percent Poverty by Distance Moved- Indianapolis

Poverty by Distance

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Wave 2 Percent Poverty by Distance Moved- San Antonio

Wave 2 Poverty by Distance in San Antonio

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Poverty by distance moved

Wave 2 Poverty by Distance

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Denver

DesMoines

Indianapolis

SanAntonio

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Wave 2 Minority by Distance in Indianapolis

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Distance Traveled (mi)

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Wave 2 Percent Minority by Distance Moved- Indianapolis

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Wave 2 Percent Minority by Distance Moved- Martindale-Brightwood

Wave 2 Minority by Distance in Indianapolis

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Wave 2 Minority by Distance in Indianapolis

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Wave 2 Percent Minority by Distance Moved- Southeast Indianapolis

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Wave 2 Minority by Distance in Indianapolis

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Wave 2 Percent Minority by Distance Moved- Indianapolis

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Next Steps

Additional Directions:1. Remaining sites

• Neighborhood level2. Block Group-level data3. Data beyond Census 2000

• Crime data• Schools characteristics and test scores

4. Integration with neighborhood sketches• Did people leave their drawn neighborhoods?• How do drawn neighborhoods compare to tract-level

measures?5. Analysis of other questionnaire data e.g. hardship,

economic sections6. Literature review of theory7. Thinking ahead to wave 3