A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations

For A talk at Sagamore Institute, 26 March 2013

Shunji CuiFulbright Scholar-in-Residence, 2012-13

Marian University

A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations

1. The Current State of China-Japan Relations – Tensions over East China Sea Disputes

2. Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?

3. ‘The Drums of War’ or Can it be Avoided?

4. How do China and Japan Move towards a Future Oriented Direction?

Fishing Platform/Pinnacle Islands钓鱼台列屿 / 尖閣列島

Diaoyu/Senkaku (D/S) Islands A chain of tiny 8 islands

5 uninhabitable islands,

3 barren rocks All are volcanic

formations from the Neocene age

Largest Island 钓鱼台 Diaoyutai (S) 鱼钓岛 Uotsurisima(J) surface area: 3.5 skm.

Geographical Location

120 nautical miles northeast of Taiwan

200 nm east of PRC

200 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa

Territorial Waters– 12nm The sovereign territory of

the state But foreign ships (both

military and civilian) are allowed innocent passage through it

Exclusive Economic Zone—200nm Control of all economic

resources, including fishing, mining, oil exploration, and any pollution of those resources.

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,1982

D/S Island Disputes: Downward Spirals?

2012-9-11: Japan’s “nationalization” of 3 of the Islands

Followed by Chinese maritime surveillance ships entering into disputed waters – even within 12nm

Small aircraft of China’s State Oceanic Bureau flew into airspace over the D/S

Japan deploying Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS)

Global Times (China) argued: “we need to prepare for the worst”, if Japan not be deterred.

Situation worse than 2005 Possible War?

2012 over Islands row

Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?

Conflictual Claims

Political & Emotional

Japan’s Claim: I 1885~: 10-y survey, terra nullius (land

without owner) 1895-1-14: Meiji Cabinet’s decision to

incorporate the islands into Japanese territory actual control.

1896-4-1: Placed under the administration of Ishigaki, Yaeyama District, Okinawa Prefecture

1895-4-17: Signing the Treaty of Shimonoseki 1895-5: the Treaty came to effect.

Japan's Claim: After WWII 1951: The San Francisco Treaty (US-J)

Japan renounced claims to a number of territories and islands including Taiwan

the Nansei Shoto (Nansei islands) came under US trusteeship

1971: the Okinawa reversion deal Nansei Shoto returned to Japan

The islands are under Japan’s control No disputes over the Islands China is just for oil

China’s Claim: Historical 1 Not terra nullius , but have been part of its territory

since ancient times.

Historical Records:

1430, 顺风相送 (Fair winds for escort), earliest, a

non-official Chinese navigational record.

1534, 使琉球录 , earliest official record of the

Imperial Envoy's Visit to Ryūkyū.

Those islands served as important fishing grounds

administered by the province of Taiwan.

China’s Claim: Historical 2 1874: Japan took Ryukyu Islands

Japan took Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) from China by force when Chinese Qing Dynasty was involved in several wars with other foreign countries

However, the Diaoyu Islands still remained under the administration of Taiwan, a part of China.

1895: The Treaty of Shimonoseki After being defeated by Japan in the Sino-Japan

War (1894-95), China ceded Taiwan to Japan under the Shimonoseki Treaty.

As a part of Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands belonged to Japan at that time.

China’s Claim: after WWII Cairo Declaration (1943) & Potsdam

Proclamation (1945) Taiwan was returned to China at the end of World

War II The Japanese government accepted the terms that

stated in these documents "...that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria and Formosa(Taiwan) shall be restored to the Republic of China.”

Thus, deny the effects of 1951 San Francisco Treaty (US-J).

Difficulty II: Sovereignty and Beyond Japan:

Actual Control – No sovereign IssueConcern of OkinawaChina’s Rise, perceived assertiveness, and

threat China:

Emotional – reminding its weakness and humiliation, and Historical injustice in modern history.

Vulnerable to Nationalist sentimentsUS Asian Policy

Shared Interests in Deescalating Their Relations

Economic Impacts (by the end of 2012): Nissan’s sales in China have fallen 5.3 % to 1.18

million units, Toyota’s by 4.9 % to 840,000 units, Japanese direct investment in China fell by almost a

third – (ASEAN looking for opportunity)

Tourism –(2012-9-21) ANA: nearly 4,000 Japanese canceled their plans to

visit China. The Japanese National Tourist Association: 20% drop

in numbers visiting Japan from China

Japanese car sales  in China in 2012

Source:China Daily 2013-1-8

Shared Willingness and Efforts

Natsuo Yamaguchi’s meeting with Xi Jinping (in Beijing, 2013-1).

The eighth Tokyo-Beijing Forum (in Tokyo, July 2, 2012). Dialogue on D/S Island disputes (in HZ, 2012-10) The International Politics of East Asia and the East

China Sea (in Hangzhou, China, December 14-15, 2012) To Japan-China Dialogue: Toward a Future Oriented

Japan-China Relationship (in Tokyo, Jnuary 23-24, 2013).

Strong calling for ‘wisdom’ in settling territorial disputes

What Can be Done for A Future Oriented Relations?

1. Managing the Disputes

2. Managing the Great Power Relations

3. Enhancing People-to-People Relations

1. Managing the Disputes

1. Understand/Accept the New Reality China: Japan’s nationalization of Islands Japan: existing disputes over sovereignty

2. Shelving the dispute & Searching for joint cooperation

Fishing; Energy

3. No entry into disputed area Set up ‘hot lines’ to prepare for contingency Establish UN Environmental Protection Areas

‘Japan and China have struck a deal for the joint development of a gas field in the East China Sea,

resolving a protracted bilateral dispute.’BBC,  18 June 2008

China: Chunxiao Gas Field

2. Managing the Great Power Relations

China: Clear vision of regional/global governanceStronger demonstration of its Peaceful rise

Japan:Accepting China’s rise

USPolicy of pivot Asia: accommodating China

3. Enhancing People-to-People Relations

China-Japan: move beyond history – forward looking ReconciliationKim Dae-jung examples

Constructing Friendly RelationsCross-Strait Example Identity among people in Taiwan

Thank You !!!