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29th February 2016
A fiscally prudent budget with the right intent & focus
2
Budget Highlights
• The much awaited Union Budget 2016-17 is behind us. It has turned out to be a pragmatic budget which above all looks at keeping the credibility
of budgetary estimates intact. The budget focuses on 3 main themes, rural spending (agriculture, roads, etc), phasing out of
exemptions/deductions to align effective corporate tax rates to the stated rate of 25%, over the next few years, and bringing some socio-economic
balance in the society through transfer of wealth.
• Specifically, the government has expanded its budgetary size by ~11%. Total revenues (both tax and non-tax, and both revenue and capital) are
expected to go up by 15.46% to `14.47tn, while total expenditure is expected to go up by 10.8% to `19.78tn. Fiscal Deficit is targeted to be 3.5%,
and hence the govt. has chosen to stick to fiscal prudence.
• As the Fiscal Deficit is targeted at 3.5% for FY17, it will keep the borrowing program at a lower level, thereby improving probability of a rate cut in
future. Contrary to the market expectation, Budget has left the Service Tax unchanged and LTCG was not maneuvered. However there was
disappointment on the corporate tax front, as the convergence to the 25% rate was only proposed for “new mfg units” and NOT for existing
companies.
• On the infrastructure side, the budget has set out an aggressive spending target. Roads and Railways alone are likely to see a capex of `2.2tn.
• In terms of financial sector reforms, strengthening of ARCs and setting up of Bank Bureau have been proposed. The PSU banking sector too has
been allocated `25k crore of capital, though we were expecting it to be about 35k-40k crore.
• On the spending side, subsidy bill is expected to go down marginally from `257,000 crores to `250,000 crores, thereby indicating
government’s intent to spend on productive causes and not use up excessive revenue for subsidies.
• The redistribution of wealth through increased allocation to farm sector and “robin-hood” type taxes (higher dividend tax, higher surcharge, which
impacts the rich) were also some of the key measures announced in the budget. Budget targets to double income of famers over next five years
and has allocated `870bn towards that end including higher outlay to MNREGA.
• For the common man, though, direct measures to boost the consumption growth were missing in the budget. It however, does allow `50,000
interest exemption for first time home buyers if the value of the house is less than `50 lakhs. Exemption for rent paid under Section 80GG for
employees who don’t get HRA from their companies was hiked 150% to `60,000. For NPS, 40% of the corpus would be tax-exempt at the time of
withdrawal for retirement, compared to the entire proceeds being taxable under the EET regime hitherto.
• To conclude, it is a pragmatic budget, with focus on fiscal prudence, rural spending, infrastructure spending, rationalizing tax
exemptions/deductions, reducing social divide and above all, reducing credibility gap for the budgetary estimates.
Top Picks : Aegis Logistics, Wabco, SML Isuzu, HDFC Bank, Indusind Bank
3
Hits and Misses from the Budget
Hits from the Budget
GAAR remains deferred by 1 year; to apply to investments made on or after 1st April 2017. It will not be implemented RETROSPECTIVELY – Will
remove uncertainty for FIIs and will give boost to dwindling FII flows
Fiscal deficit for FY17 maintained at 3.5% (as previously stated)
Service tax rates remain unchanged
No tinkering with the Long Term Capital gains Tax (LTCG) rates or tenures
Amnesty scheme for black money. The government has allowed for a window for past tax transgressors. By paying tax at 30%,and surcharge at
7.5% and penalty at 7.5%, which is a total of 45% of the undisclosed income, there will be no scrutiny or enquiry regarding income declared in these
declarations
No rise in subsidy bill, government to focus on productive spending
Focus on plugging subsidy leakages, by bringing more and more subsidies under the Aadhar platform
Incentivize new gas exploration by allowing for a calibrated move towards market based pricing (using landed cost of alternative fuels)
Misses from the Budget
No reduction in corporate tax rate as promised in the previous budget
Additional tax on dividend (for dividend higher than 10 lakh per annum)
Increase in cess on certain sectors (Krishi Kalyan Cess, @ 0.5% on all taxable services, infrastructure cess, of 1% on small petrol, LPG, CNG cars,
2.5% on diesel cars of certain capacity and 4% on other higher engine capacity vehicles and SUVs.
4
Agenda
Sector specific measures and impact
Budget at a glance
5
Budget at a glance
6
Budget at a glance
FY15 FY16 FY16 FY17
Particulars (In ` crore) Actuals Budget Estimates Revised Estimates Budget Estimates
1. Revenue Receipts (2+3) 1,101,473 1,141,575 1,206,084 1,377,022
2. Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 903,615 919,842 947,508 1,054,101
3. Non-tax Revenue 197,857 221,733 258,576 322,921
4. Capital Receipts (5+6+7) 562,200 635,902 579,307 601,038
5. Recoveries of Loans 13,738 10,753 18,905 10,634
6. Other Receipts 37,737 69,500 25,313 56,500
7. Borrowings and other Liabilities* 510,725 555,649 535,090 533,904
8. Total Receipts (1+4) 1,663,673 1,777,477 1,785,391 1,978,060
9. Non-plan Expenditure 1,201,029 1,312,200 1,308,194 1,428,050
10. On Revenue Account of which, 1,109,395 1,206,027 1,212,669 1,327,409
11. Interest Payments 402,444 456,145 442,620 492,670
12. On Capital Account 91,635 106,173 95,526 100,642
13. Plan Expenditure 462,644 465,277 477,197 550,010
14. On Revenue Account 357,597 330,020 335,004 403,628
15. On Capital Account 105,047 135,257 142,192 146,382
16. Total Expenditure (9+13) 1,663,673 1,777,477 1,785,391 1,978,060
17. Revenue Expenditure (10+14) 1,466,992 1,536,047 1,547,673 1,731,037
18. Of which, grants for creation of capital assets 130,760 132,462 132,004 166,840
19. Capital Expenditure (12+15) 196,681 241,430 237,718 247,024
20. Revenue Deficit (17-1) 365,519 394,472 341,589 354,015
% of GDP (2.9) (2.8) (2.5) (2.3)
21. Effective Revenue deficit (20-18) 234,759 268,000 209,585 187,175
% of GDP (1.9) (2.0) (1.5) (1.2)
22. Fiscal Deficit {16-(1+5+6)} 510,725 555,649 535,090 533,904
% of GDP (4.1) (3.9) (3.9) (3.5)
23. Primary Deficit (20-11) 108,281 99,504 92,470 41,234
% of GDP (0.9) (0.7) (0.7) (0.3)
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
7
Budget at a glance (Cont’d)
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
Revenue Receipts
67.6%
Capital Receipts
32.4%
Receipts Break-up FY16 RE
Rs 5793 bnRs 12061 bn
Revenue Receipts
69.6%
Capital Receipts
30.4%
Receipts Break-up FY17 BE
Rs 13770 bn
Rs 6010 bn
Non-Plan Expenditure
73.3%
Plan Expenditure
26.7%
Expenditure Break-up FY16 RE
Rs 13082 bn
Rs 4772 bn
Non-Plan Expenditure
72.2%
Plan Expenditure
27.8%
Expenditure Break-up FY17 BE
Rs 14281 bn
Rs 5500 bn
8
Budget at a glance (Cont’d)
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
Corporation Tax31.0%
Taxes on Income
20.5%Union
Excise Duties
19.5%
Customs14.4%
Service Tax14.4%
Taxes on U.T.0.3%
Wealth Tax0.0%
Tax Revenue Break-up FY16 RE
Corporation Tax30.3%
Taxes on Income
21.7%
Union Excise Duties
19.5%
Customs14.1%
Service Tax14.2%
Taxes on U.T.0.3%
Wealth Tax0.0%
Tax Revenue Break-up FY17 BE
Interest Payments etc.
34.2%
Subsidies19.9%
Defence Services (RE+CE)
17.4%
Grants to State & UT
8.4%
Pensions7.4%
Police4.1%
Others8.7%
Non-Planned Expenditure FY16 RE
Interest Payments etc.
34.8%
Subsidies17.7%
Defence Services (RE+CE)
17.6%
Grants to State & UT
8.4%
Pensions8.7%
Police4.2%
Others8.5%
Non-Planned Expenditure FY17 BE
9
Changes in FY17BE over FY16RE
Particulars (` Cr.) FY16 RE FY17 BE
∆ FY17BE /
FY16RE
REVENUE RECEIPTS
1. Tax Revenue 1,459,611 1,630,888 11.7%
Corporation Tax 452,970 493,924 9.0%
Taxes on Income 299,051 353,174 18.1%
Customs 209,500 230,000 9.8%
Union Excise Duties 284,142 318,670 12.2%
Service Tax 210,000 231,000 10.0%
2. Non-Tax Revenue 258,576 322,921 24.9%
Interest receipts 23,142 29,620 28.0%
Dividend and Profits 118,271 123,780 4.7%
Other Non Tax Revenue 117,163 169,521 44.7%
3. Capital Receipts
Miscellaneous Capital Receipts (on a/c of Disinvestment) 25,313 56,500 122%
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
10
Agenda
Sector specific measures and impact
Budget at a glance
11
Sector specific measures and impact
12
Agriculture
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Allocation for the entire rural sector
@~`88000cr. This includes Allocation
under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana
@19,000crore; 38,500 crore allocated for
MGNREGS.
This will boost rural demand and infrastructure. All major Agri focus companies (+ve)
15000cr for interest subvention towards
Farm Loans.
Target of amount sanctioned under
Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana increased to
` 1,80,000 crore
Credit cost will fall for lending Institutions and
overall credit environment will get good
impetus
SKS Microfinance, Rural Portfolio of Banks
(+ve)
Excise duty on Micronutrients reduced
from 12.5% to 6% This will reduce the overall cost of Micro
Nutrient Aries Agro
Irrigation is the focus area - A dedicated
Long Term Irrigation Fund with a initial
corpus of about ~20,000 crore.
12.5k crore outlay for FY16-17 and
86500cr over the next 5 year period for the
89 stalled projects
This will lead to ease pressure for the Farmer
after back to back two monsoon failures.
Jain Irrigation, Finolex Industries, EPC
Industries (+ve)
Modernisation of land records to enable
dispute free transfers The revamped Programme will
build an integrated land information
management system. This would be a long
term enabler for Rural India
All major Agri focus companies (+ve)
Top Picks: PI Industries, SKS Microfinance, EPC Industries
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
13
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Infrastructure Cess being levied on motor
vehicles, of heading 8703, as under:
a) Petrol/LPG/CNG driven motor vehicles of
length not exceeding 4m and engine
capacity not exceeding 1200cc; 1%
b) Diesel driven motor vehicles of length not
exceeding 4m and engine capacity not
exceeding 1500cc; 2.5%
c) Other higher engine capacity and SUVs
and bigger sedans. 4%
Looking at the cut throat competition,
Manufacturers will be forced to absorb part
hike impacting margins
M&M, Maruti (-ve)
BCD on Aluminium Oxide for manufacture
of Wash Coats, which are used in the
manufacture of catalytic converters, being
reduced subject to actual user condition:
reduced from 7.5% to 5%
Aluminium Oxide is RM for Bosch Ltd Bosch India Ltd (+ve)
Amendments to be made in Motor Vehicles
Act to open up the road News Bus routes to get opened. Will
encourage investment in Road Transport
Sector
ALL, Force Motor, SML, Wabco,
ZFSteering(+ve)
Top Picks: SML Isuzu, Wabco
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
14
Banking & Financials
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Budget was not expansionary as market
borrowing of the Government is pegged at
`5339 bn for FY17E (3.5% of GDP) which
is in line with the budgeted estimate. This
provided comfort to markets and has led to
sharp fall of ~15 bps in 10 year G-sec yield
Positive for banks as yields have corrected by
~15 bps. This shall keep trading loss under
check.
Kotak Mahindra Bank, Indusind Bank, Yes
Bank (+ve)
Government allocated `250 bn for PSU
bank re-capitalisation which is in line with
budgeted estimate but much lower than the
capital required by PSU banks
PSU banks will be requiring `2000 bn+ capital
by FY19E (~3years) for making NPA provision
and modest credit growth. On these lines,
capital of `250 bn by Government is paltry.
All PSU banks – mainly PNB, BOI, OBC, Union
Bank, IOB, OBC, Allahabad Bank (-ve)
Under PM Mudra scheme, Government
has proposed an allocation of `1800 bn.
Also, the budget had clear focus on rural
economy which shall benefit MFIs
Microfinance companies shall be major
beneficiaries as the cost of fund for borrowing
under Mudra is lower than other alternatives
SKS Microfinance, Satin credit (+ve)
NBFCs shall be eligible for deduction to the
extent of 5% of its income in respect of
provision for bad and doubtful debts.
There is disparity in accounting as banks are
eligible for deduction to the extent of 7.5% of
total income. With current amendment, even
NBFCs shall be eligible for tax benefit
M&M Finance, Shriram Transport Finance,
L&T Finance (+ve)
Top Picks: HDFC Bank, Indusind Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
15
Banking & Financials (Cont’d)
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
For ‘First – home buyers’, Deduction for
additional interest of `50000 per annum for
loans upto `35 lakh sanctioned during the
next financial year, provided the value of
the house does not exceed `50 lakh.
It shall encourage the first time home buyers
as it makes buying house more attractive. This
shall led to higher sales volume and benefit
housing finance companies from credit growth
perspective.
HDFC, Dewan Housing Finance, Repco Home
Finance (+ve)
100% deduction for profits to an
undertaking from a housing project for flats
upto 30 sq. metres in four metro cities and
60 sq. metres in other cities. Also, service
tax exempted on construction of affordable
houses up to 60 square metres
Encourages real estate companies to build
affordable housing projects. This shall create
lending opportunities to developers and the
retail home buyers. Mainly housing finance
companies shall benefit.
HDFC, Dewan Housing Finance, Repco Home
Finance (+ve)
Investment limit for foreign entities in Indian
stock exchanges will be enhanced from 5
to 15% on par with domestic institutions.
New derivative products will be developed
by SEBI in the Commodity Derivatives
market.
Foreign capital will be attracted with increased
investment limit.
Volumes in the commodity exchanges shall
increase with launch of new derivative
products. This will benefit MCX as it
commands 80%+ market share. It shall
support revenue and profitability in medium to
long term.
MCX (+ve)
Top Picks: HDFC Bank, Indusind Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
16
Energy and Mining
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Basic Customs duty on aluminum and
aluminum products raised from 5% & 7.5%
to 7.5% and 10% respectively. Marginally Positive Nalco, Vedanta (+ve)
Basic Customs duty increased on zinc
alloys from 5% to 7.5%. Marginally Positive Hindustan Zinc (+ve)
Accelerated Depreciation provided under
IT Act to be limited to maximum 40% from
1.4.2017
Negative for companies taking advantage of
additional depreciation Suzlon Energy, Inox Wind (-ve)
Export duty on Iron ore fines and lumps
reduced form 10% and 30% respectively to
nil. Positive for iron ore miners. NMDC,Vedanta (+ve)
Clean Energy Cess increased from `300
per tonne to `400 per tonne
Negative for aluminum and power producers
as their cost of production will increase
(Effective Rate increased from `200 to
`400/tonne)
Adani power, NTPC,Tata Power (-ve)
Top Picks: None
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
17
Garments, Jewellery and Footwear
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Excise duty on branded readymade
garments and made up of articles of
textiles of retail sales price of `1000 or
more is increased as follows-
From NIL(without input tax credit) or 6%
(with input tax credit) to 2%(without input
tax credit) or 12.5% (with input tax credit).
Also, the Tariff value for excise purpose on
readymade garments and made up articles
of textiles increased from 30% of RSP to
60% of RSP.
Negative for branded garments manufacturer,
For instance if the excise duty on a garment
costing `2000 earlier was `36 (2000*30%*6%
without input tax credit) will now be charged
`150 (2000*60%*12.5% without input tax
credit). Therefore the overall incremental
impact on the garment is ~5.5%
Arvind Ltd., Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail,
Raymomds (-ve)
Excise duty on Articles of Jewellery
increased from Nil to 1%(without input tax
credit) or 12.5% (with input tax credit)
Negative for jewellers as this is over and above
an existing CD of 10%. Titan, PC Jewellers (-ve)
Excise duty on rubber sheets & resin
rubber sheets for soles and heels reduced
from 12.5% to 6%.
Also, abatement rate for Retail Sale Price
based excise duty increased from 25% to
30%.
Positive for footwear manufacturing
companies. (Taxable value will be 70% of RSP
vis-à-vis 75% taxable value earlier)
BATA, Relaxo(+ve)
Top Picks: Arvind Mills
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
18
Infrastructure/ Real Estate
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Infrastructure cess, of 1% on small petrol,
LPG, CNG cars, 2.5% on diesel cars of
certain capacity and 4% on other higher
engine capacity vehicles and SUVs
Positive - Will bring in additional funds for the
infrastructure sector L&T, GPPL etc (+ve)
`700bn allocated for Roads and Highways
Positive- Higher investments and more liquidity
for the road sector. L&T, MBL Infrastructure, Sadhav Infra(+ve)
Steps to revive PPP’s: a) Dispute Bill to be
introduced. B)guidelines for renegotiation
of PPP Concession Agreement and c)New
credit rating system for infra projects
Positive –Likely to revive PPP contracts which
is the key for the success of infra projects All Infrastructure companies (+ve)
Distribution made out of income of SPV to
the REITs and INVITs having specified
shareholding will not be subjected to
Dividend Distribution Tax, in respect of
dividend distributed after the specified date
Positive – One of the key pending issues for
the success of REIT’s. Will revive investments
in REIT’s
Godrej Prop, Sobha Devp etc(+ve)
Reduction in deduction from 150% to
100% u/s 35AD Marginally Negative Snowman Logistics (-ve)
Top Picks: L&T, GPPL
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
19
Pharmaceuticals
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Benefit of deductions for Expenditure on
scientific research under section 35 (2AB) -
Currently at 200% - Weighted deduction
shall be restricted to 150% from
01.04.2017 to 31.03.2020. Deduction shall
be restricted to 100% from 01.04.2020
onwards.
Negative for majority of the pharma companies
as they spend heavily (7-8% of sales) on R&D
but impact on EPS is minimal
All major pharma companies (-ve)
Proposal of a special patent regime with
10% rate of tax on income from worldwide
exploitation of patents developed and
registered in India.
With just 10% tax, government is rewarding
innovation Cipla (+ve)
Opening of 3,000 Stores under Prime
Minister’s Jan Aushadhi Yojana during
2016-17 will lead to greater thrust on
generics
Negative impact on prescription (Rx) volumes
for pharma companies while companies with
separate generic divisions may see some
positive impact
Sun Pharma (-ve), Cipla, Alkem (+ve)
10AA - Special provision in respect of
newly established units in SEZ - Profit
linked deductions available for units in SEZ
for profit derived from export of articles or
things or services - No deduction shall be
available to units commencing
manufacture or production of article or
thing or start providing services on or after
1st day April,2020.
Negative as most of the pharma companies
have manufacturing units located at SEZ All major pharma companies (-ve)
Top Picks: Lupin, Sun Pharma
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
20
Tobacco and Tobacco Products
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Excise duty on Gutkha, Chewing tobacco
and Jarda scented tobacco increased from
70% to 81%. Negative for Tobacco and tobacco products
manufacturer but a commensurate rise is
indirectly positive for cigarette producing
companies.
None
Additional Duty on Cigarettes increased as
follows-
Filter not exceeding 65mm increased from
`70/1000sticks to `215/1000sticks.
Filter exceeding 65mm but not exceeding
70mm increased form `110/1000sticks to
`260/1000sticks.
Filter exceeding 70mm but not exceeding
75mm increased from `110/1000sticks to
`370/1000sticks. And
Others increased from `180/1000sticks to
`560/1000sticks.
Marginally Negative for Cigarette
manufacturing companies from volume growth
perspective. However the rise is not as steep
when compared to the last few years
ITC, Godfrey Phillip(-ve)
Top Picks: None
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
21
Others (Aviation & Railways)
Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch
Excise duty on Aviation Turbine Fuel other
than for supply to Scheduled Commuter
Airlines (SCA) from the Regional
Connectivity Scheme Airports, being
increased from 8% to 14%. However ATF
for supply to aircraft under the Regional
Connectivity Scheme will continue to
attract 8% excise duty.
Negative for cargo carriers, aviation
companies. Blue Dart, Jet, Interglobe Aviation (-ve)
Excise duty on parts of railway or tramway
locomotives or rolling stock and railway or
tramway track fixtures and fittings, railway
safety or traffic control equipment, etc.
reduced from 12.5% to 6%.
Positive for locomotive, rolling stock, track
fixtures and fittings, railway safety or traffic
control equipments manufacturing companies.
Texmaco(+ve)
Top Picks: None
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
22
ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR
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Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral
Head of Research Head – Derivatives Desk
022-61802820 022-61802870
[email protected] [email protected]
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Jaymin Trivedi Banking & Finance 022-61802833 [email protected]
Naveen Baid IT 022-61325250 [email protected]
Quantitative Team
Sudeep Shah Sr.Technical Analyst 022-61802837 [email protected]
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Ammolh Paatil Sr. Derivative Analyst 022-61325226 [email protected]
Advisory Team
Avinash Nahata Head - Advisory Desk 022-61802824 [email protected]
Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61207619 [email protected]
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Pradeep Parkar Advisory Desk 022-61207625 [email protected]
Mohan Jaiswal Sr. Exec.-Research Support 022-61802838 [email protected]
23
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