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Mark Zunckel & Eugene Cairncross CSIR Pen Technikon SAWS SRK. A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System DAPPS. Innovation Fund. Dept Arts, Culture, Science & Technology Call for consortia South African partners Large projects, e.g. 3-years - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System
DAPPSMark Zunckel & Eugene Cairncross
CSIR
Pen Technikon
SAWS
SRK
Innovation Fund
Dept Arts, Culture, Science & Technology Call for consortia South African partners Large projects, e.g. 3-years Contribution in specified key areas, e.g.
biotechnology, technology & information
Air Quality Management
Sources
ChemistryTransportDepositionDispersion
Ambient concentrationsModeling or monitoring
Receptor impact
Management Intervention
Air Quality Monitoring
Site specific Selected pollutants Accurate Continuous Expensive Can be integrated
with modelling
Air Quality Modelling Spatially continuous A range of pollutants Estimation of
concentrations Average
concentrations Cost effective Integrated with
monitoring 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00
4600.00
4650.00
4700.00
4750.00
4800.00
4850.00
4900.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
DAPPS
Sources: Compile a comprehensive emissions inventory
Meteorology: SAWS forecast fields Dispersion: Photochemical dispersion model Receptors: Spatially resolved grid Forecast map of air pollution data and indicators Information to manage air quality
The output, an example..
HighMedium
Communicating the forecast
Air pollution data and indicators Map of an area with a number scale or
color scale indicating potential health risk Interactive web site, updated ever 24
hours Daily newspaper? Other methods?
What DAPPS will not do!
DAPPS will have limitations Quality of input data Uncertainty in meteorological predictions Assumptions in dispersion model Spatial resolution
Scenario modelling DAPPS cannot manage air quality
Validation of the system
Meteorological forecast On going validation at SAWS Source model Point sources Mobile sources Domestic sources Dispersion model Comparison of estimations with monitored data
Project structure
3 year research & development project
Number of specialist components to be developed and integrated with one another
Maintain a two-way communications with a number of stakeholders
Project Plan
Year 1: Project launch, components of DAPPS system running independently
Year 2: Integration of the components Year 3: DAPPS running in test location Stakeholder involvement throughout the
development
Why Cape Town?
Potential sites: Durban (SIB) Richards Bay PE/Coega Cape Metro Vaal Triangle Platinum Area Pietermaritzburg
Criteria for selection: Stakeholders buy-in Data availability Digital information Issue (s) Range of source types History /other work Isolation from sources Local by-laws Running costs Complex meteorology
Conclusion
We believe that we can develop a system to assist in the management of air quality & CMC is our prefered development site
To make it happen, we need: Your buy-in as key stakeholders, Your input now to help specify the outputs of the
system; to influence the design of the system, Your input throughout the system development.