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Contents

Hertfordshire Context – Growth, Transport, Challenges & Opportunities .......... 2

Challenge 1: Unprecedented housing growth and economic development ............ 2

Challenge 2: Existing transport deficiencies and a future network struggling to cope

.............................................................................................................................. 11

Challenge 3: Retaining Hertfordshire’s character and enhancing its places ......... 20

Challenge 4: Public spending pressures and local governance evolution ............. 21

Challenge 5: Socio-economic inequalities, housing affordability and health ......... 23

Looking ahead: Drivers of change, threats and opportunities........................... 25

List of Tables

Table 1: Future population and household growth in Hertfordshire 2016 – 2037. (HCC) ....... 3

Table 2: Mode share for intra-urban JTW journeys within Hertfordshire. (2011 Census) ..... 16

Table 3: Hertfordshire Population Structure by Age (Source: NOMIS) ................................ 26

Table 4: Preliminary model of the development of the autonomous fleet (Thatcham Research

cited by IMECH 2016). ........................................................................................................ 27

List of Figures

Figure 1: Generators of future traffic growth; housing, employment and airports.. ..... 5

Figure 2: London Plan Key Diagram .......................................................................... 9

Figure 3: The Current Transport System and Likely Future Improvements. ............. 12

Figure 4: Current Transport Network Problems and Issues. .................................... 14

Figure 5: Journey to work mode share excluding residents who work in inner London

and at home. Source: Census (Mode used for longest distance.) ............................ 15

Figure 6: Distance travelled to work by Hertfordshire residents (County Travel

Survey 2012) ............................................................................................................ 16

Figure 7: Census average distance travelled to work by district, 2001 & 2011. ....... 16

Figure 8: Notable travel synergies between towns and centres in the sub region,

based on sources such as census, mobile phone and public transport ticket data.

(Source: COMET analysis.) ...................................................................................... 18

Figure 9: Changes in traffic levels at various times of day in 2031. .......................... 19

Figure 10: HCC Transport Revenue Budgets. .......................................................... 22

Figure 11: HCC Transport Capital Spend (Includes third party contributions

(developers), grants and LTP block allocations). ..................................................... 22

Figure 12: Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015 for Hertfordshire. .............................. 23

A Draft Summary of the Hertfordshire

context – Growth, Challenges &

Opportunities

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Figure 13: Average house prices in regions Q4 2015.(HCC): .................................. 24

Figure 14: Change in housing affordability in Hertfordshire since 2000 (y axis shows

the Index value where year 2000 = 100). (HCC) ...................................................... 25

Figure 15: Transport Challenges and Opportunities. ................................................ 29

This paper contains a draft summary of the evidence behind the proposed content of

the new LTP4. In particular, it details the current Hertfordshire context, its growth

proposals and its transport challenges and opportunities.

Hertfordshire Context – Growth, Transport, Challenges &

Opportunities

This section summarises the current and future context of housing growth and

economic development in the county, alongside the current and future operation and

performance of the transport system which will serve and support this. Collectively

they underline why a new LTP and change in strategic transport direction is required.

In addition to these two key broad challenges, there are a number of other

challenges that any new strategy must address. Later in this section, future ‘drivers

of change’ are considered which could help or hinder the realisation of a more

sustainable future transport system, and must be a consideration to ‘future proof’ the

strategy as far as possible. Together these challenges, issues and opportunities

underpin the transport objectives outlined in the next section and the proposed

strategy that follows it.

Challenge 1: Unprecedented housing growth and economic

development

Projections of Population and Household Growth and the Economy At 2016 Hertfordshire has a population of 1,174,000 people and 482,000 households. Government demographic projections of population and household growth indicate that Hertfordshire is set to experience substantial growth over the coming decades. By 2037, the population of Hertfordshire is projected to reach 1,401,000 and there will be 603,000 households. The projected distribution of growth for 2021, 2031 and 2037 timelines are shown in Table 1:

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Table 1: Future population and household growth in Hertfordshire 2016 – 2037. (HCC)

2016 2021 2031 2037

Populat

ion

(,000s)

House

holds

(,000s)

Populat

ion

(,000s)

Househ

olds

(,000s)

Populat

ion

(,000s)

Househ

olds

(,000s)

Populat

ion

(,000s)

Househ

olds

(,000s)

Broxbourn

e

97 39 101 41 109 45 114 48

Dacorum 152 64 160 67 173 74 180 78

East Herts 145 61 152 65 166 73 173 77

Hertsmere 105 42 110 45 121 51 127 54

North

Herts

134 57 141 60 153 67 160 71

St Albans 148 59 155 63 168 69 174 73

Stevenage 88 37 91 39 98 43 102 45

Three

Rivers

93 37 98 40 107 45 112 48

Watford 97 39 103 42 113 47 118 51

Welwyn

Hatfield

117 46 123 49 135 55 141 58

Hertfordsh

ire

1,174 482 1,235 511 1,344 568 1,401 603

Hertfordshire has, by a number of measurements, a successful and prosperous

economy. It has low unemployment rates and 22.6% of all its resident employees are

in high value knowledge-based industries, compared to a national average of 20.3%

(as of 2014). This is also higher than all other comparator LEP areas except for

Thames Valley Berkshire. Alongside this, Hertfordshire is considered to have a

highly skilled workforce, with 58.8% of employees in the most highly skilled jobs,

again higher than the national average of 55.3%. There is also a strong

entrepreneurial element to the Hertfordshire economy, with the equivalent of 84

active enterprises per 1,000 working age residents, compared to the 65 per 1,000 in

England as a whole. GVA per head is £28,400 compared to the national average of

£25,400 (2014) and the average salary (£29,570) is 6% higher than the national

average.

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There are still many challenges facing the local economy, however. Productivity

growth in the County is half that of the England average and Hertfordshire has also

performed less well than competitors in its long term, ten year (2001-14) average

annual growth rate, although it performed very well in 2013-14. In addition, the high

levels of outward commuting to highly skilled jobs, particularly in London, restricts

the availability of locally skilled workers to meet demand within Hertfordshire.

Economic projections indicate that Hertfordshire is to experience significant economic growth over the coming decades. In 2016, Hertfordshire is estimated to have in the region of 674,000 jobs and that is projected to grow to 707,000 jobs by 2021 and 736,000 jobs by 2031, with total GVA expected to rise from £29,819 million in 2016, to £34,198 million and £43,226 million respectively. A New Growth Blueprint for Hertfordshire Over recent years there have been two main changes to the way in which Hertfordshire plans for the future growth in the County – changes to the planning system and changes to planning for the economy. The Planning System The Government has introduced a series of substantive reforms of the planning system. Notable amongst these have been:

A complete overhaul of the national planning policy framework;

Revocation of regional spatial strategies prepared by Regional Assemblies. In Hertfordshire the East of England Plan had dictated how much growth should be accommodated and broadly where that should go.

Devolution of strategic planning to local planning authorities, to be factored into preparation of new Local Plans to be prepared by local planning authorities (borough and district councils in Hertfordshire)

The most significant consequence of these changes for Hertfordshire is that the main mechanism through which the future scale and location of growth in the County is set is through the preparation by borough and district councils of local plans. Over recent years Hertfordshire’s ten borough/district councils have been preparing their local plans in accordance with legislative requirements and national Government guidance. During 2016/2017 for the first time since 2012 there will be a new planning blueprint for the future growth of Hertfordshire. Whilst this is not yet fully formalised at the time of writing, progress is such that for much of the County a clearer picture is emerging of what Hertfordshire should look like in the period up to 2031 and beyond. This is shown diagrammatically in Figure 1, which shows there will be concentrations of housing and employment growth along the A1(m) corridor, as well as along the A414 and A10/M11 corridors.

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Figure 1: Generators of future traffic growth; housing, employment and airports. Overall district levels of housing is indicated by shading, with large concentrations shown by symbols. Employment symbols reflect a combination of current and future forecast major employment centres. There will be employment growth beyond these however, and in general it is difficult to forecast where employment growth will occur. (Based on information available from districts in early 2016).

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Planning for the Economy In 2011 the Government established Local Enterprise Partnerships across England to help determine local economic priorities and lead economic growth and job creation within local areas. In Hertfordshire we have The Hertfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), which has produced a Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) setting how it sees the Hertfordshire economy growing in the future and where its priorities should lie. Spatially the main messages from the SEP are:

Hertfordshire needs to maximise the future of our global excellence in science and technology - Bioscience, life science, pharmaceuticals - With major sites at

Stevenage, Ware and Hoddesdon. - Film, digital animation and creativity – At sites such as Leavesden and

Elstree.

Harnessing Hertfordshire’s relationships with London (and elsewhere), along three main corridors: M1 / West Coast Mainline, A1(M) / East Coast Mainline / King’s Cross to Cambridge railway line and M11 / A10 / Liverpool Street to Cambridge railway line which extends from London through Broxbourne and Cheshunt to Bishop’s Stortford (and Harlow, in Essex) and onto Cambridge.

- Re-invigorating, re-investment, regeneration and growing the Hertfordshire

New Towns of Hatfield, Hemel Hempstead, Stevenage, Welwyn Garden City) plus a fifth – Harlow New Town – on the border with Essex. (In addition, South Oxhey is a London overspill town).

The Strategic Economic Plan seeks principally to drive forward delivery of its priorities through three Economic Growth Areas/Corridors; M1/M25, A1(M), A10/M11. Major Regeneration and Growth initiatives Hertfordshire Enterprise Zone The Hertfordshire Enviro-Tech Enterprise Zone aim is to support and develop the existing enviro-tech sector in west Hertfordshire covering multiple sites (78.1 hectares) including Maylands Business Park at Hemel Hempstead, the Building Research Establishment (BRE) at Watford and Rothamsted Research at Harpenden. Stevenage First Stevenage First is a partnership seeking to achieve investment in housing and town centre regeneration; investment in key employment areas and sectors - attracting high tech industries, including: research and development, advanced engineering and bioscience to Gunnels Wood; improvements to key transport infrastructure, with a focus on widening the A1(M) and improving public transport and rail services. Hatfield 2030+ Hatfield 2030+ is a public and private sector initiative across Hatfield with the aim of developing shared priorities to attract and target public and private sector investment in Hatfield for the next 20 years and beyond through:

- delivering sustainable and successful centres across the town,

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- Prioritising place making, culture and identity - Sustainable movement and improved navigation around the town - Providing new and improved housing to offer the full range of the housing

ladder - Creating social and community infrastructure fit for the 21st Century - Promoting an environment for business and enterprise

London Stansted Cambridge Corridor The London Stansted Cambridge Corridor Consortium is a partnership of public and private organisations covering the area north of Tech City, the City Fringe, Kings Cross, and the Olympic Park, up through the Lee Valley and M11/A10, and West Anglia Rail corridors to Harlow and Stansted, and through to Cambridge and Peterborough. The partnership was formed to organise and promote the economic corridor. The area is linked by the West Anglia rail lines, as well as key road networks such as the A10 and M11. It is has a population of over 2 million people and growing. It is home to strong business clusters, ranging from high-tech digital and bio-medical to logistical, resource recovery and food manufacturing. A London Stansted Cambridge Growth Commission was established to provide independent analysis and advice on raising the global economic potential of the London-Stansted-Cambridge Corridor. The interim findings of the Commission indicate that the economy along the Corridor has grown phenomenally over the past twenty years, and that significant growth is set to continue:

- the Corridor is an international asset with rapid rates of growth - it is a leading tech and knowledge economy - it includes the Global City of London and the World-class Cambridge Cluster - it contains Europe’s leading life sciences industrial cluster and contains the

firms and ideas that are driving the future of the UK’s ICT & Digital industries. - the corridor competes globally for investment, and needs the quality of place

and infrastructure to attract talent, investment and entrepreneurs Beyond Hertfordshire to the west and east The areas surrounding Hertfordshire are coming forward with their own growth strategies. Most notable amongst these are: Luton/Dunstable/Houghton Regis The Luton/Dunstable Houghton Regis conurbation has a substantial growth agenda. Luton alone has a need for 17,800 dwellings and 18,000 jobs in the period 2011-2031. The new Luton Airport Enterprise Zone, around 395 acres in size, will consist of three linked sites surrounding Luton Airport: Stirling Park, Century Park and Airport Business Park. The proposals look to create over 10,000 jobs, centred around the technology and aerospace industry. Harlow Similarly, Harlow is set to grow substantially over the coming decades. The Harlow Enterprise Zone seeks to create a brand new science and IT park by developing two sites within Harlow. These sites will provide high quality, modern business space meeting the needs of businesses in the ICT, MedTech and Advanced Manufacturing sectors, providing facilities to locate 100 businesses and the creation of at least

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2,500 jobs with the potential to create more than 5,000 jobs over a 25 year period from 2013. London Luton and London Stansted Airports Both London Luton and London Stansted airports have ambitious and ongoing growth proposals.

London Luton has planning permission to expand from 12 million passengers per annum (mppa) to 18mppa. It is currently the fastest growing of London’s airports and it is expected to reach 18mppa within the next 4-5 years. At London Luton the current level of direct employment at the Airport is estimated to be 8,250 jobs, with an additional 2,700 jobs generated through supply chain and induced income effects on the local economy. Moving to 18 mppa, the direct employment generated at the Airport will be approximately 13,350 with a further 4,400 jobs generated through the supply chain and induced income effects.

London Stansted is also experiencing rapid growth with 2015 seeing its busiest year since 2007. The planning throughput cap of 35mppa is expected to be reached by the mid-2020s and the masterplan for the airport sets out how the airport will grow to make use of the remaining capacity within its existing runway – estimated to be between 40 and 45mppa. London Stansted is the largest single-site employer in the East of England, employing over 10,000 people across 190 companies on site. It generates around £770 million in GVA. Moving to 45mppa would generate a further 10,000 jobs.

A120 Corridor to the east Recent proposals beyond the County to the east indicate that the A120 corridor may well become a focus for growth in west Essex, with major town expansion and new settlement proposals being considered along it from Bishops Stortford eastwards to Great Dunmow. London The current approved London Plan has a major priority to increase housing provision to meet the needs of a growing and ageing population. The London Plan is based on an assumption that London’s population would rise from 8.2 million in 2011, to 10.11 million in 2036. This would mean an increase from 3.28 million households in 2011, to 4.26 million by 2036. The London Plan is based upon projections that see a growth in the total number of

jobs in London from 4.9 million in 2011 to 5.8 million by 2036 – growth of 17.6 per

cent or an additional 861,000 jobs over the period as a whole (Figure 2: London Plan

Key Diagram ). To respond to these growth challenges the London Plan is based upon delivery of a housing need of 49,000 dwellings per annum within the context of the possibility that the need might actually be upwards to as much as 62,000 dwellings per annum.

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Whilst the Plan is based upon London meeting all of its needs within its boundary, it does identify national/regional growth/coordination corridors extending beyond the capital, two of which cross through Hertfordshire – the London-Luton-Bedford Corridor and the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Corridor.

Figure 2: London Plan Key Diagram

The London Plan is set to be reviewed imminently. Latest population and household projections are up on those included in the current plan and indicate that the population of London is set to increase from 8.8 million in 2016 to 10.7 million in 2037. The number of households is set to increase from 3.6 million in 2016 to 4.7 million in 2037. Many stakeholders and commentators are suggesting that one of the potential implications of the scale of London’s projected population and economic growth is such that it will be necessary for the Capital to export some of that growth to the wider south east. Wider south east political arrangements are already in place to manage, amongst other matters, the potential implications of the forthcoming review of the London Plan beyond London. In Summary: The Scale of and spatial priorities for the future growth of Hertfordshire? The main messages from all the above can be summarised as:

For the foreseeable future the approach to accommodating growth in Hertfordshire is to roll forward and reinforce our existing settlement

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hierarchy and repeat traditional approaches to the distribution of growth. The mixture of small to medium size settlements is set to broadly continue.

There are no plans to substantively upgrade the status of any of our settlements or to embark upon a radical programme of construction of small, medium and large standalone new settlements.

Hatfield, Hemel Hempstead, Stevenage, Watford and Welwyn Garden City will remain the main settlements to which growth and change will be focussed and supported.

A focus on reinventing and reinvigorating the New Towns in the County (Hatfield, Hemel Hempstead, Stevenage) along with South Oxhey in Watford is a major priority. Significant major regeneration proposals moving forward, including Hatfield 2030+ and Stevenage First.

There are a large number of strategic growth locations on the periphery of our towns – the number and scale of which are unprecedented in Hertfordshire in recent decades.

A standalone new community of up to 10,000 homes is proposed in the east of the County, but with strong links to Harlow immediately over the border in Essex.

London is forecast to grow by a further 2 million people in the next 20 years, and this is likely to mean some of this growth needs to be accommodated in and around the county.

There are two rapidly expanding international airports on our eastern and western boundaries in the shape of London Luton and London Stansted airports. The increases in air passengers travelling to and from the airports, and the economic growth generated in the vicinity of the airports will generate travel demand in the county.

There are three Enterprise Zones within and adjoining Hertfordshire which will provide a focus for economic growth in their sub-regions – the Hertfordshire Enterprise Zone in the west of the County, the Luton Enterprise just to the north west of the County and Harlow Enterprise Zone just to the south east.

There are three corridors where there appears to be a strategy to concentrate growth: - east-west, along the A414. - north south – one along the A1(M) and the other along the A10/M11. The designation of the A10/M11 growth corridor is in general alignment with substantial initiatives to raise the profile of and recognise the future economic potential of the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Corridor.

Harlow and the Luton/Dunstable/Houghton Regis conurbation, just to the north-west and south-east of the County respectively, have very substantial growth agendas.

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Challenge 2: Existing transport deficiencies and a future network

struggling to cope

Since 1950 and the start of mass car ownership, Hertfordshire and its transport

system have experienced great change. There has been the construction of the

M25, M1 and A1(M) motorways, numerous highway upgrade and bypass schemes,

the building of New Towns and Garden Cities, the growth of Luton and Stansted

airports as major international gateways, the decline and rationalisation of the rail

network through the Beeching cuts of the early 1960s and the current rail passenger

revival of the last decade.

This period of time has seen car ownership in Hertfordshire increase from only one in ten households in 1950, to nearly nine in ten households today. 118,000 Hertfordshire residents work in Greater London, and half (51%) travel by rail/tube (2011 Census). Combined with longer distance commuters traveling through the county to access London, means much of the county rail network is at or approaching full capacity at busy times. The transport network in Hertfordshire has a north-south focus serving London, the Midlands and the North on the A1(M), M1, A10 and the East Coast, Midland and West Coast Mainline railway routes. With the exception of the heavily congested M25 and A414 in the south of the County and the A505, there are very few east-west routes, particularly for those wishing to use public transport, with east-west rail travel often requiring a train trip into central London first. The polycentric settlement pattern results in a complex travel pattern, not easily catered for by public transport. The map below (Figure 3) shows the existing transport network in the county, as well as committed and likely transport improvements already planned for future years.

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Figure 3: The Current Transport System and Likely Future Improvements.

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The map includes schemes which are already being delivered such as the A5-M1

link road, Harlow A414 junction improvements and Watford Health Campus New

Road. It also includes schemes which have funding secured and so are very likely to

be delivered such as St Albans City Station, Metropolitan Line Extension, M25

Junction 25 improvements, A1M Junction 6-8 Smart Motorway, A602 Improvements,

A120 Little Hadham Bypass and Stevenage Station New Fifth Platform. Other

schemes shown are at various stages of implementation, but are considered to have

a realistic prospect of being delivered.

The schemes are predominantly either rail or highway schemes. Of the rail

improvements it is the committed Metropolitan Line Extension, and proposed

Crossrail 2 and Stevenage Station upgrade schemes that represent significant rail

enhancements that will serve as catalysts for regeneration, development and wider

local transport improvements. The proposed High Speed 2 whilst not serving

Hertfordshire in any way does pass through part of the county and will impact on the

transport network during its construction phase.

The County Council has recently consulted on bypass options for the A120 at

Standon, given the traffic impacts of the committed bypass at Little Hadham.

Improvements to the existing route of the A120 through Standon is currently

considered the most viable solution to mitigate these impacts. Longer term the case

for a bypass would need to be considered based on future traffic forecasts and

housing growth allocations beyond 2031.

Congestion, unreliable journeys and network deficiencies High demand for road travel across Hertfordshire means that the county’s road network is under great pressure. As a consequence, there is regular congestion and network disruption resulting in unreliable journeys and limited resilience, as well as harmful vehicle emissions and other environmental impacts.

Error! Reference source not found.

Figure 4 highlights some of the significant problems already experienced on the

transport network, some of which will worsen due to growth already underway,

although some will be relieved by the committed transport schemes being delivered

in the short term. There is a tendency to simplify the transport network in the county

by describing it in terms of its motorway and rail corridors radiating out from London.

However a transport strategy overly focussed on optimising these links can reinforce

existing patterns of long distance commuting and high car mode shares. Travel

patterns, as we will see in later sections, are more complex than this, and it is not

always helpful to plan transport improvements by focussing too heavily on

established corridors.

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Rail congestion is experienced on most lines in Hertfordshire, both in terms of

seating capacity and the number of trains that can be run. This is a result of the high

level of demand for commuting into London, and due to the lines being shared with

local, regional and national passenger services and with freight. Rail capacity is

particularly tested on the two-track sections, either particular pinch points such as

Welwyn viaduct or whole routes such as the West Anglia Main Line. There are a

number of forthcoming schemes which will help to relieve this congestion – for

example the Thameslink Programme which provides new trains on both the existing

route and on the Great Northern route which will be linked into Thameslink in

December 2018, and the possibility of Crossrail 2 in 2033 which will add significant

new capacity on the West Anglia Main Line.

Limited evidence of modal shift and low levels of sustainable mode use

Current and previous local transport plans have highlighted the need to achieve

modal shift and reductions in car use. However, statistics indicate there has been no

reduction in car use over this time, other than what has arisen from increases in the

number of local residents who commute to central London, and those that now opt to

work from home. This does not indicate modal shift, and is more indicative of

changes in working patterns among the resident population. Between 2001 and 2011

the number of residents who work in inner London rose from 58,958 to 67,861, and

the number or residents who work from home (more common in rural areas) went up

from 48,766 to 63, 654. From an assessment of mode of travel to work which

excludes these groups) it is evident there has been no real change in journey to work

mode share over the 10 year period.

Figure 4: Journey to work mode share excluding residents who work in inner London and at home. Source: Census (Mode used for longest distance.)

Alongside journeys to work, trips to school comprise the greatest contributor to peak

period traffic, although the relative contribution to each is hard to define given

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parents often combine trips to work with dropping children off at school. Over the last

decade the mode share of travel to school in Hertfordshire has been equally static,

based on annual ‘hands up’ survey data.

With the exception of trips to Central London where most trips are undertaken by rail,

car is the main mode of travel for trips in Hertfordshire. The inter-urban trip with the

highest mode share by bus is between St Albans and Hatfield, but this is still

relatively low at approximately 10%. Rates of walking and cycling are highest within

relatively small and dense urban areas such as Baldock and Hertford. Rates of

cycling are particularly low across the county, even in urban areas which have large

numbers of local residents working locally, such as Stevenage, Hemel Hempstead

and Welwyn Garden City, with the car being used instead for around two thirds of

trips in these areas (

Table 2). Stevenage rates are particularly disappointing given the relatively good

cycling infrastructure found here.

Table 2: Mode share for intra-urban JTW journeys within Hertfordshire. (2011 Census)

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Figure 5 (Above): Distance travelled to work by Hertfordshire residents (County Travel Survey 2012) Figure 6 (Right): Census average distance travelled to work by district, 2001 & 2011.

Figures 6 and 7 highlights how over a quarter of commuters travel less than 5 miles

to their place of work, and 43% travel less than 10 miles. Between 2001 and 2011

there was an increase in travel distance by commuters in all districts. This will be

partly explained by the increase in inner London based commuters, but if this

continues it will become increasingly difficult to cater for longer distance non-London

trips by sustainable modes.

This lack of modal shift, current low level of sustainable mode use, and trend for

longer distance commuting patterns, underlines the need to radically rethink the long

term transport strategy for the county. The constrained public sector funding

environment is also making it increasingly difficult to fund transport improvements

and initiatives that have a proven track record in achieving modal shift and

reductions in car use. This transport strategy therefore needs to go further and be

more radical in its efforts to tackle congestion and constrain traffic growth than

previous LTPs, but also do so in what is a more challenging funding environment.

Travel patterns and public transport potential

The schematic map (Error! Reference source not found.) illustrates that despite its

polycentric nature there are some clear travel synergies between towns and cities in

the sub region. The arrows show whether the commuter pattern is two way or not,

but they are not to scale. As discussed, the proximity of Hertfordshire to London and

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the important role the county plays as a commuting base for workers to the capital is

a very noticeable part of existing travel patterns. The top Hertfordshire origins for this

London commute are St Albans, Watford, Cheshunt, Harpenden, Welwyn Garden

City, Hemel Hempstead, Borehamwood and Stevenage.

The A1 corridor has significant movements between the towns along it particularly between the northern towns (Letchworth, Hitchin) and Stevenage, and between Stevenage and the southern towns (Welwyn GC, Hatfield). Data suggests the proportion of strategic through trips on this corridor is quite low, and it caters instead for a large number of local trips. The majority of trips along the corridor are by car, despite the rail provision. In terms of east to west travel, the strongest flows are between the towns in close proximity to each other; Hemel Hempstead, Watford, St Albans, Hatfield and Welwyn Garden City. Flows are less strong from the A1 corridor to the east, but there are still notable relationships between neighbouring towns. This includes links between Hertford and Ware, and between these towns and Welwyn Garden City to the west and Broxbourne to the south. East west travel is predominantly by car and data suggests that strategic east west flows are low. There are also notable flows from Luton and Dunstable into Hemel Hempstead, Harpenden, St Albans and Stevenage.

Figure 7: Notable travel synergies between towns and centres in the sub region, based on sources such as census, mobile phone and public transport ticket data. (Source: COMET analysis.)

In addition there are a considerable number of commuting trips coming into the county from the North London Boroughs to destinations including Watford, Borehamwood and Cheshunt. In the east of Hertfordshire, commuting patterns from Bishop’s Stortford are predominantly to central London (by rail) and Stansted Airport (by car). Movement is also seen between Harlow and adjacent areas in the south east and east of the county. The travel synergies between adjacent towns and the containment of trips within some larger urban areas, indicates there is potential for sustainable travel modes to assume a greater role than at present. Too often the car is seen as the easy option,

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even for short trips and adjacent locations well served by bus or rail. Improved provision and support for sustainable modes is clearly required, however Stevenage illustrates that a good level of provision for a sustainable mode (i.e. cycling) is insufficient on its own to encourage people to use their car less. Improving the attraction of sustainable modes relative to car use will also require policies to reduce the ease and convenience of car use as well. The role of land use planning An issue for the transport system is not just the scale of growth but also its

distribution. Growth in the period to 2031 is likely to be quite dispersed, and some

larger urban extensions are not within easy access of good public transport

interchanges (locations offering fast and frequent access to multiple destinations).

Some of the sustainable access issues may be suitably addressed in the design and

delivery of the developments. However by not allocating growth to optimise its

access by high quality public transport routes at the outset, the potential to reduce

the reliance on the car by future residents is constrained. Increased pressure on the

road network in the next 15 years is likely to be unavoidable, unless more radical

policy choices are made that reduce travel demand, particularly by cars.

Transport forecasts

Population growth drives increased travel demand, and in Hertfordshire where car ownership and use is high, this typically translates into increased car use and congestion. Population is expected to increase by 15% 2016-2031 and a further 16% to 2050. COMET traffic projections to 2031 are based on assumptions that current travel behaviour would be replicated. The change in traffic levels at various times of day in 2031 are illustrated in Error! Reference source not found..

Figure 8: Changes in traffic levels at various times of day in 2031.

There are predicted to be 13-15% more car trips in the peak periods. The growth is greater due to peak spreading (people travelling at different times of day to avoid the worst congestion), an ageing population and a growth in non-work trips. Overall

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significant parts of the network in 2031 are shown to operate at capacity, with traffic increasing on all key routes. New congestion locations emerge alongside existing ones. Overall road journey times are predicted to increase by 25% in the peak hours by 2031. Examples include journey times on the A414 which increase by approx. 10% on average, and journey time benefits from the A1M junction 6-8 scheme will be negated by delays north and south of it. It is worth emphasising that in the COMET runs a significant number of vehicle trips are unable to complete their journeys and either decide not to travel or travel at other times instead. This suppressed demand is particularly high in the AM peak on key routes such as the A1 and A10. Therefore the network conditions forecast should be considered a conservative estimate of how the network will operate, given the full scale of demand is not shown. Alternatively the forecast should also be considered a worst case ‘do nothing’ scenario given it assumes limited behaviour change and no transport interventions beyond those currently committed being progressed. On balance the forecast suggests a transport strategy focussed on catering for the increased traffic demand would be at best very expensive, difficult to deliver and result in congestion being displaced to other parts of the network. At worst such an approach could be largely ineffective as any new capacity created would be filled by suppressed or induced traffic demand. Capacity enhancements will have a role to play to accommodate the committed spatial pattern of growth, but there has to be an enhanced role for demand management and efforts to encourage modal shift.

Rail will need to accommodate increased travel demand in future due to population and employment growth locally, and in London, Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire given these areas are served by the routes passing through the county north to south. A number of Hertfordshire’s rail lines are forecast to be over capacity by 2031 - Midland Main Line long distance services to St Pancras are forecast to be at 133% of capacity by 2031, with West Coast Main Line suburban services at 107%, Great Northern services to Moorgate at 104%, and Chiltern services to Marylebone at 100%. Forecast rail growth up to 2043 (39% on the West Anglia Main Line and 53% on the Midland Main Line) will quickly erode much of the spare capacity delivered by the Thameslink programme and Crossrail 2

Challenge 3: Retaining Hertfordshire’s character and enhancing its

places

In a globalised and increasingly interconnected world where locations compete for

footloose business and investment, possessing a strong and distinct ‘offer’ becomes

a real advantage. Whilst benefitting hugely from it, Hertfordshire should not be

defined solely by its position and proximity to London. Transport infrastructure

radiates out from the capital, London greenbelt covers much of the county and many

of its businesses and residents benefit from convenient access to a world city.

However Hertfordshire is a very distinct location in its own right, with a unique

combination of natural and manmade features.

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A characteristic of the county is its array of small and medium sized towns, with no

dominant large centre that residents rely on for access to goods and services. The

towns themselves are varied and there is a rich urban heritage comprising traditional

market towns, historic towns and cities, garden cities, post war new towns and

metropolitan centres. The backdrop to these towns is a largely rural environment

dotted by villages and hamlets, with notable features including the Chiltern Hills and

Lea and Colne river valleys.

The dominance of the greenbelt and areas of protected environmental status in Hertfordshire creates an interesting dynamic for the county in that it both limits growth opportunities, but also generates demand for growth given it is a key factor as to why people choose to live in the county. Environmental conservation is a priority not just in the county’s rural areas, but also its urban areas containing buildings of historical importance that also need protecting, which again requires careful consideration of development options. Nearly a quarter of Hertfordshire’s population live in one of its New Towns (Hatfield, Hemel Hempstead, Stevenage). Most of the New Towns need significant investment in them and some form of urban renewal to sustain them in the future, and are at different stages in addressing this.

Challenge 4: Public spending pressures and local governance evolution

The 2008 financial crisis, the global economic downturn that followed and the Government’s austerity policies has meant that in recent years the money that HCC has had to spend on key services has reduced. Revenue funding for transport has been particularly squeezed where social care pressures coupled with funding reductions, has meant spending in areas such as bus subsidies, sustainable travel and road safety initiatives have been cut back. Capital funding for new and upgraded infrastructure has been relatively stable, as government sees this as important for supporting economic growth.

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Figure 9: HCC Transport Revenue Budgets.

Figure 10: HCC Transport Capital Spend (Includes third party contributions (developers), grants and LTP block allocations).

Highway maintenance spending forms a sizeable portion of both capital and revenue funding, reflective of its importance to transport users, and also because investment in asset condition saves money long term and ensures network resilience. As well as the County Council and ten District/Borough Councils, the Hertfordshire

Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has a key role in the oversight and funding of

transport infrastructure delivery in the county. LEP growth deal agreements with

Government represent a key funding source for local transport improvements.

Transport service delivery and management is further complicated by the array of

players involved, such as Highways England, Network Rail, multiple train operating

companies, and bus service providers with whom the county council must work in

partnership to ensure joined up planning and service integration.

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Government is pursuing a devolution agenda which has resulted in a number deals

being agreed with groups of local authorities. In return for additional powers and

resources these local areas have agreed deals to deliver economic growth and

public spending efficiencies overseen by revised local government arrangements,

such as elected mayors. For transport there are clear opportunities regarding

transport planning, service delivery and efficiencies. However this does not come

without risks and challenges that need to be overcome.

Regardless of how the devolution agenda develops and how local government in

Hertfordshire chooses to organise and align itself, the scale of sub regional

population change, infrastructure investment and planning will require a high level of

cross boundary working, communication and cooperation.

Challenge 5: Socio-economic inequalities, housing affordability and

health

In Hertfordshire approximately 80% of working age residents are in employment,

which is above the national average, and unemployment is at its lowest rate for ten

years. Hertfordshire is perceived as a prosperous county, and whilst there are some

very affluent areas, there are also parts of Hertfordshire that have high levels of

deprivation (Figure 11). Generally these deprived areas are found in the more

densely populated areas such as parts of Stevenage, Watford, Hemel Hempstead,

Hatfield and parts of Broxbourne.

Figure 11: Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015 for Hertfordshire.

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Hertfordshire’s appeal and its growth constraints is a factor in it being one of the

most expensive places to buy a property outside of London. The expense of living

and buying property in Hertfordshire is often higher than the wages received by

much of the working population. This means many cannot afford to live in

Hertfordshire and are therefore forced to commute here from further away to access

services and employment. Conversely, the cost of property in London results in

many London workers basing themselves in Hertfordshire and high levels of outward

commuter flows from the county to the capital.

As with many parts of the country there is significant scope for improvement in the

health of Hertfordshire’s population, particularly regarding lifestyles which are a

significant determinant of health. These include levels of obesity and physical

activity. These same factors and other aspects of deprivation such as income and

education play a role in health inequalities in the county, resulting in significant

differences in life expectancy and rates of morbidity. Raising levels of active travel

can make a significant contribution to raising levels of physical activity and overall

health and wellbeing.

Figure 12: Average house prices in regions Q4 2015 (HCC)

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Figure 13: Change in housing affordability in Hertfordshire since 2000 (y axis shows the Index value where year 2000 = 100). (HCC)

One of the most direct impacts on health by transport is through lives lost and life

limiting conditions caused by road collisions and poor air quality. There is evidence

to suggest that the deaths (40-50,000 per year in the UK) caused by poor air quality

in the UK dwarfs those caused by road casualties (1775 in 2014 in Great Britain),

and recent coverage of vehicle emissions standards tests has raised public

awareness of poor air quality, its impacts and the contribution of transport to this.

Another aspect of social inequality is the accessibility of services. Where this is

limited it can be a factor in social exclusion. Ongoing public spending reductions and

service demand pressures have led to public service reorganisations, notably in the

health sector but also with local authorities, which can mean services are less easy

to access. At the same time across England there have been large cuts to bus

subsidies, and in Hertfordshire that has resulted in some areas experiencing reduced

levels of bus service provision.

Looking ahead: Drivers of change, threats and opportunities

This plan has a long term outlook and is presented around a vision to 2050. Whilst

the future presents great uncertainty there are continuing and emerging ’drivers of

change’ at a national and global level that will influence how Hertfordshire develops

over the next thirty years. By developing an understanding of the future we wish to

plan for, we can ensure the decisions made today support a future positive vision for

the county and don’t compromise our future opportunities. It is important that this

transport strategy provides clarity over future direction and priorities, but must be

suitably flexible and adaptable to support various future scenarios.

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Year

Affordability Index Median Weekly Salary Index Median House Price Index

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Both the Vision Stage 1 and Stage 2 reports considered future drivers of change,

and this underpinned the development of this strategy. Some, such as future

population and economic growth, health and transport issues have already been

articulated under the previous section. However there are a number of others which

broadly fall into the categories of Society, Technology, Economy, Environment and

Politics. Technology in particular is likely to make a huge impact on the transport

system we will be using in the next 20 years, and presents a great deal of

uncertainty given it is hard to predict which emerging technologies will become

mainstream, and what technologies will make an impact that are unknown to us

presently and yet to be discovered.

Society

Ageing Population - The average age in Hertfordshire in 2050 is expected to be

older than in 2016, with the proportion of over 65’s rising from 16% of the population

to 23% (Table 3).Transport issues this presents include the role of active travel in

supporting older people remaining healthy and independent, catering for service

access needs, the growth in older car drivers and ensuring places and streets

support and encourage access by older people so as to benefit the local economy.

Table 3: Hertfordshire Population Structure by Age (Source: NOMIS)

Age group

2013 % Population by Age

2031 % Population by Age

2050 % Population by Age

0-19 25% 23% 23%

20-64 59% 54% 54%

65-90+

16% 23% 23%

Technology

Alternative forms of Energy - Increasing demand for existing global energy

supplies will have an impact on technological change, driving improved energy

efficiency and potentially enabling more localised (and therefore resilient) energy

supplies.

Internet & Broadband & Smart Phones - The Internet of Things (the connection of

a huge range of devices, sensors, and machines to the Internet) could improve the

efficiency of service provision across society though intelligent and autonomous

applications and services. Whilst this can result in a lot of efficiency gains and a vast

amount of data, a lack of standards and common platforms means that these gains

could be fragmented. Big data (a term used to describe large datasets) analysis

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could be hindered by the lack of open access and sharing between operators and

businesses. Hertfordshire is already nearing full coverage by high speed broadband,

furthering opportunities to reduce the need to travel for work, business and services.

Smart Phone ownership is already widespread and likely to be seen increasingly as

an essential tool in the future, bringing vast amounts of travel data and advice to

people.

3D Printing – A potential breakthrough technology that could change where and

how goods are manufactured, with obvious implications for transportation in the

production, retail and purchase stages.

Vehicle technology - A growing number of vehicles on Hertfordshire’s roads are

already ultra-low emission vehicles, and use an alternative to petrol or diesel such as

electricity. The government aims for all new cars to be ultra-low emission vehicles by

2040 and for the fleet to be effectively decarbonised by 2050.

Autonomous Vehicles – Driverless vehicle technology is developing rapidly, and

could result in the widespread use of cars that can sense their environment and

navigate without human input, offering safety and efficiency gains. Accessibility

could be transformed opening up new transport options for children, older people,

visually impaired and other groups with disabilities where driving a car is currently

not an option. This could increase the number of vehicles on the road which would

offset congestion reduction gains, and it is likely mass transit systems (potentially

driverless) will still be required. Table 4 shows how the realisation of full autonomy

of cars could take place in stages. Each stage takes some 15 years for new car

technology to become widespread among new car sales, with fully autonomous

vehicles likely to take another 20 years to become widespread.

Table 4: Preliminary model of the development of the autonomous fleet (Thatcham Research cited by IMECH 2016).

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

Driver Control Assisted Driving

Partial Autonomy

High Autonomy

Full Autonomy

Cruise Control ABS ESC

AEB Adaptive Cruise Control Parking & Lane Keep Assistance

Adaptive Cruise Control with lane keeping Traffic Jam Assistance

Road following Junction decisioning Hazard detection & evasive decisioning

Combination of all functions & Artificial Intelligence & multiple redundancies -no driver monitoring

Predicted Timeframe until near 100% of new car sales

Pre 2025 Pre 2030 Pre 2035 Pre 2035 Pre 2040

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Environment

Green Infrastructure and Green Travel- There is a trend towards greater provision

and accessibility of green (parks and countryside) and blue (waterways and lakes)

infrastructure, which has an important role in maintaining a sense of place,

enhancing the local environment and health and wellbeing. Transport has a role

both in providing access to this and in its provision. There is also a growing demand

for more active and environmentally friendly travel options and choice.

Climate Change and Carbon emissions -With climate change and the frequency

and intensity of extreme weather rising, there is an increased risk in the future of

disruption, damage and failure of infrastructure in the county. Policies and practises

will be required to be put in place to manage the impact of any future extreme

weather events, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions causing global

warming.

Waste- A growing population presents challenges concerning waste generation and

the costs of this in terms of the environment and landfill taxes. Reducing waste

generation and increasing recycling rates are imperative, and must be a

consideration in transport infrastructure maintenance and scheme delivery.

Politics

Political Engagement - The effect of ‘virtual society’ through social media could

become more significant in shaping political developments and legislation in

Hertfordshire. Services will need to become more be responsive to local people’s

priorities and ambitions, and there could be greater citizen involvement in decisions.

Social Inclusivity - Economic growth resting on the expansion of leading industries

to attract skilled workers and investment could mean social inclusivity and

environmental considerations falling down the political agenda. Partly as a result of

this approach, a two-tiered society could emerge and the needs of an increasingly

diverse population – commuters, unskilled seasonal workers, local business people

and the elderly – may not be adequately addressed or integrated.

Political agenda and legislation – Changing national and local priorities with

respect to economic growth, social inclusivity and environment will have clear

implications for future transport strategies and priorities. Any accompanying national

or European legislation will similarly have implications and a bearing on the future

shape of the county. Transport strategies must be flexible and adaptable, be guided

by national policies and good practice, but also grounded in a solid local evidence

base to reflect local priorities. They should also be regularly reviewed and

monitored.

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Figure 14: Transport Challenges and Opportunities.