A Discussion About Alaska's Future

8/18/2019 A Discussion About Alaska's Future

1/32

A DISCUSSION ABOUT ALASKA’S FUTURE

April 2016


2/32

Plan4Alaska.com


3/32


4/32

25%

72%

17%

26%

50%

Excellent/

Good

Only Fair/

Poor

Better Same Worse

Current Condition Condition a Year from Now

(July: 37%) (July: 61%) (July: 22%) (July: 35%) (July: 35%)

The Alaska Economy


5/32

49%

55% 56%

41%

37%

25%

May 2012 Oct. 2012 Nov. 2013 Jan. 2015 July 2015 Mar. 2016

Trend in Economic Perceptions

Percentages indicate proportion of voters saying the economy is in “excellent” or “good” shape.


6/32


7/32

3%

4%

4%

6%

8%

9%

10%

27%

57%

Environment / Energy

Economy / Pocketbook

Transportation / Infrastructure

Community Issues

K-12 / Higher Education

Budget / Taxes

Oil Industry

Health Care

Education Funding

Budget Issues by Party…

“Budget / Tax Issues” by Party

Republicans 62%

Independents 54%

Democrats 54%


8/32

Alaskans Pay Much Lower Broad-BasedState Taxes Than Residents of any OtherState

8Alaska


9/32

13% 15%

52%

13%

Higher Same Lower Don't Pay

Taxes

Alaska State TaxesCompared to Other States?

July 2015

12% 11%

47%

17%


Taxes

March 2016

Republicans: 14-10-46-18


10/32

77%

22%

Extremely/ Fairly Somewhat/ Not

Very

March 2016

49%

extremely

Concern about Budget Shortfall

31%

43%

49%

July 2015 Jan. 2016 Mar. 2016

Trend: “Extremely Concerned”


11/32

Shifts in Concern by Party

77%

22%

Extremely/ Fairly Somewhat/ Not

Very

March 2016

49%

extrmly

31%

43%

49%

July 2015 Jan. 2016 Mar. 2016

“Extremely” Concerned by Party July March Shift

Republicans 29% 53% +24

Independents 33% 45% +12

Democrats 30% 49% +19

Trend: “Extremely Concerned”


12/32

81%

18%

Extremely/ Fairly Somewhat/ Not Very

Alaska has a state budget of approximately $5 billion per year. However, the state is currently facing an

annual budget shortfall of over $3.8 billion. Knowing this, how concerned are you about the currentbudget shortfall facing the state of Alaska?

58%

extremely

After Providing More Info…


13/32

67%

27%

Cuts and New

Revenue

Only Budget

Cuts

Margin

Republicans 62-33 +29

Independents 66-30 +36

Democrats 79-15 +64

Anchorage 69-25 +44

Fairbanks 71-22 +49

Kenai 71-27 +44

Mat-Su 55-40 +15

Rural 54-34 +20

Southeast 69-28 +41

White 69-26 +43

AK Native 55-34 +21

All Other 69-27 +42

(Jan: 65%) (Jan: 30%)

Preferred Solution for Shortfall?


14/32

17% 16%

57%

Positive No Impact Negative

“Negative” Impact by Party

Republicans 51%

Independents 55%

Democrats 67%

Impact on Economy withoutNew Revenue


15/32

13% 15%

52%

13%


Taxes

Alaska State TaxesCompared to Other States?

July 2015

12% 11%

47%

17%


Taxes

March 2016

Republicans: 14-10-46-18


16/32

24%

34% 33%

7%

A Great Deal A Fair Amount Some But Not Much Nothing At All

91%

Heard of Proposed Budget Cuts?


17/32

“A Great Deal” or “Fair Amount”

by Party

Republicans 53%

Independents 58%

Democrats 68%

24%

34% 33%

7%

A Great Deal A Fair Amount Some But Not Much Nothing At All

Awareness by Party…


18/32

66%

28%

Concerned Not Concerned

Concern Over Proposed Cuts toState Programs and Services

Only asked if heard of proposed budget cuts.

Margin

Republicans 51-41 +10


Democrats 79-17 +62

Anchorage 64-30 +34

Fairbanks 61-32 +29

Kenai 62-27 +35

Mat-Su 53-41 +12

Rural 78-15 +63

Southeast 61-32 +29

White 65-29 +36

AK Native 73-20 +53

All Other 67-28 +39


19/32

30% 28%25%

11%

Extremely Likely Fairly Likely Somewhat Likely Not Very Likely

83%

Likelihood that Alaska will Introduce aBroad-based tax in the Next 5 Years?


20/32

30% 28%25%

11%

Extremely Likely Fairly Likely Somewhat Likely Not Very Likely

“Likely” By Party

Republicans 85%

Independents 81%

Democrats 85%

Likelihood of Broad-based tax by Party


21/32

47% 50%41%

56%

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

March 2016 July 2015

-6+6

Support for a Generic Income Tax


22/32

65%

31%

55%

41%


Shifts in Support by Party

Sales Tax Support by Party July March Shift






23/32

52%

42%

Support Oppose

One way AK could introduce a state personal income tax would be a

flat tax of approximately 1.5% on income earned in AK. Under this

plan, the state could raise an estimated $200 million per year to helpclose the budget shortfall. It is estimated that 80% of the total

income tax collected from Alaskans will be paid by the wealthiest

20% of Alaskans. A married couple who earn $60,000 and have one

child would pay $204 in state income tax. Low income people would

pay no state income tax.

Support for a 1.5% Income Tax

Margin

Republicans 41-53 -12


Democrats 72-25 +47

Anchorage 52-43 +9

Fairbanks 59-40 +19

Kenai 49-37 +12

Mat-Su 33-62 -29

Rural 58-29 +29

Southeast 54-41 +13

White 51-43 +8

AK Native 60-32 +28

All Other 50-46 +4


24/32

Margin

Republicans 43-54 -11

Independents 47-49 -2

Democrats 60-37 +23

Anchorage 52-45 +7

Fairbanks 56-42 +14

Kenai 39-52 -13

Mat-Su 38-60 -22

Rural 47-43 +4

Southeast 40-54 -14

White 50-47 +3

AK Native 36-55 -19

All Other 54-42 +12


25/32

65%

31%

55%

41%


-10

+10

Support for a Generic Sales Tax



26/32

65%

31%

55%

41%


Shifts in Support by Party

Sales Tax Support by Party July March Shift






27/32

+X

+X

68%

24%

Acceptable Unacceptable

Is a $1,000 Permanent FundDividend Next Year Acceptable?


28/32

+X

+X

68%

24%

Acceptable Unacceptable

Is a $1,000 Permanent FundDividend Next Year Acceptable?

“Acceptable” by Party

Republicans 66%

Independents 65%

Democrats 79%


29/32

Executive Summary

• By a wide margin, voters say the state budget is the issue

they’d most like to see addressed.

• Concern about the economy is at a four-year high.

• 67% of voters want the shortfall addressed using a

combination of cuts and new revenue, and nearly 60%

believe addressing the budget shortfall with a cuts-only

approach will further harm the economy.

• Support for broad-based taxes has increased substantially

since July.


30/32

Our Ask

It’s critical for Alaska’s future that we have a

comprehensive plan now. Your legislators need to

hear from you.

Take the Plan4Alaska Fiscal Challenge and share your

plan with your legislators.

Alaska’s future depends on it!


31/32

Challenge.Plan4Alaska.com


32/32

THANK YOU

WWW.PLAN4ALASKA.COM

Documents

A Discussion About Alaska's Future