A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of

Hong Kong

Paul YipDepartment of Statistics and

Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong

Outlines

An overview of the population and marriage distribution

An analysis of Total fertility rate (the number babies born to a woman over the child bearing period)

Opportunities and challenges

Population size of Hong Kong SAR

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2004

Million Average annual growth rate

1971 - 76 2.34

1976 - 81 3.23

1981 - 86 1.53

1986 - 91 0.62

1991 - 96 1.80

1996 - 01 0.94

2001 - 04 0.84

Number of births and TFRs of HK, 1961 - 2004

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Liv

e b

irth

s

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

TF

R

Replacement level (2.1)

TFR

Number of Births

Total fertility rate, HKSAR and other low fertilityeconomies, 1971-2000

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996Year

per

wo

man

HK

Singapore

Finland

Net nuptiality (female), Hong Kong, 1981 and 2001　 1981 2001

Age(x)

l(x) nL(x) l'(x) nL'(x) m l(x) nL(x) l'(x) nL'(x) m

0 1000 4992 1000 4991

5 998 4988 996 4981

10 997 4982 996 4979

15 996 4974 996 4786 3.8 995 4976 995 4924 1.0

20 994 4963 919 3327 33.0 995 4971 974 4343 12.6

25 992 4951 412 1151 76.8 994 4965 763 3072 38.1

30 989 4933 48 169 96.6 992 4957 466 1926 61.1

35 985 4906 20 78 98.4 991 4946 305 1390 71.9

40 978 4863 11 51 99.0 988 4928 251 1181 76.0

45 967 4799 9 983 221

　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　

Age-specific fertility rates of Hong Kong, 1971-2004

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Liv

e b

irh

ts p

er 1

,000

wo

men

19711976198119861991199620012004

Percentage distribution of live births by order of live birth,

1981-2003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003P

erce

nta

ge

of

live

bir

ths

by

ord

er o

f li

ve b

irth

1st birth

2nd birth

3rd birth +

Total marital fertility rates

The TMFR depends on age of marriage Overall, the TMFR has also decreased

for the past 2 decades In 2001, the TMFR for resident women

was around 2 (close to the replacement level), given that they got married at 20

However, the figure would shrink to 1.6 if they got married at 25

Marriage age postponement

Median age at first marriage by sex, HKSAR, 1971-2000

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Year

Age

Bride

Groom

Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong

(1)Number of never married

Agegroup

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Man 25 - 34 108 141 219 274 290 313 296

35 - 44 40 37 39 44 61 90 112

45 - 54 13 17 24 21 17 21 34

25 - 54 161 195 282 339 368 424 442

Woman 20 - 29 128 184 275 325 311 326 337

30 - 39 9 9 26 49 84 122 141

40 - 49 8 6 6 7 17 29 56

20 - 49 145 199 307 381 412 477 534

Deficit(-)/surplus(+)of single woman

-16 4 25 42 44 53 92

　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　

Assuming the 2001 marriage pattern prevails, it is projected that about 29.7% of males and 24% of female would remain single when they reach 40

Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong

(2)

4

25

42 4453

92

-16

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001Year

Single women inexcess (,000)

Total marital fertility rates by age of marriage in Hong Kong,

1981 - 2001

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49Age of marriage

Live births per1,000 women

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Total marital fertility rates

of Hong Kong by age of getting married, 2001

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

Age of getting married

Live births of Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 -

2004

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Resident parents Mainland mother and resident father Non resident parents

Proportions of live births in Hong Kong by residence of

parents, 1991 – 2004

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Non resident parents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.336 1.755 3.343 7.064

Mainland mother, resident f ather 7.27 9.638 12.55 12.93 10.24 9.701 9.273 10.75 13.2 14.26 15 14.89 16.98 18.07

Resident parents 92.73 90.36 87.45 87.07 89.76 84.84 84.97 83.92 82.4 81.83 80.61 79.96 76.47 71.78

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Non-resident mothers

Resident mothers

Number of live births in Hong Kong byresidence of mothers, 1981 - 2003

Reasons for decline of TFR

Reduction on marital fertility rate Increase in the number of

spinsterhood Late marriage (median age on first

marriage: 30 males and 27 females) Imbalance of the supply and demand

(bachelors vs. spinsters) about 90,000 of women (age 20-44) outnumbers men (25-49)

WHY? A study on Barriers to Fertility for

married couples Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP)

study by the Family Planning Association A similar study entitled “Barriers on

Fertility” Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002)

The three major concerns:1. Unfavorable Economic condition2. Unsatisfactorily Education service 3. Individual preference.

Number of spinsterhood is

increasing Proportion of ever married men and women, HKSAR,

1971-2000

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

24 29 34 39 44 49Age group

Perc

enta

ge

1971(men)

2000(men)

1971(women)

2000(women)

Proportion of ever married persons

Figure 1: Proportion of ever married people by sex, HKSAR, 1981 and 1999

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age

Pro

port

ion

Male (1981)

Female (1981)

Male (1999)

Female (1999)

Fertility Do we have a problem? Yes!

Is it a tempo problem? No!

Speed and Magnitude of the reduction of the

Fertility

It is the speed and the magnitude of the reduction of the fertility rate,

What can we learn from the overseas countries

Different measures have been implemented in many countries which have experienced low fertility (i.e. Australia, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and USA) that inhibit fertility decline.

Are they relevant in Hong Kong?

Total fertility rates of Hong Kong andselected low fertility economies, 1995 – 2002Year 　 Asian economies 　 Non-Asian economies

Hong Kong

Singapore Japan

Sweden

Norway

Netherlands

Australia

Denmark UK

Germany US

1995 1.3 1.67 1.42 1.74 1.87 1.53 1.83 1.81

1.71 1.25

1.98

1996 1.17 1.66 1.43 1.61 1.89 1.53 1.8 1.75

1.73 1.32

1.98

1997 1.1 1.61 1.39 1.52 1.86 1.56 1.78 1.75

1.72 1.37

1.97

1998 0.99 1.47 1.38 1.5 1.81 1.63 1.76 1.72

1.72 1.36 2

1999 0.97 1.47 1.34 1.5 1.85 1.65 1.76 1.74

1.69 1.36

2.01

2000 1.02 1.6 1.36 1.55 1.85 1.72 1.76 1.77

1.64 1.38

2.06

2001 0.93 1.41 1.33 1.57 1.78 1.71 1.73 1.75

1.63 1.35

2.03

2002 0.96 1.37 1.32 1.65 1.75 1.73 1.75 1.73

1.64 1.34

2.01

　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　

Window closes earlier when the age truncating

for total dependency ratio changed

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

YR<15

TDR(0-14+60+/15-59)

AR 60+

The challenges:Quantity

vs Quality

How to revert the low fertility:

Replacement Migration:

Healthy Population:

Low fertility About 60% reduction is due to change of

marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility rate

Promoting fertility: CS suggested to have three. Due to the late marriage, they might not be able to catch up (1st order of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8 in 2003)

Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong. (Of course, solve the critical staff problem first)

Replacement migration About more than 80% of the population

growth from migration. The new comers rejuvenate and inject new

blood into the community. They are not coming (38100 one-way

permit holders in 2004). Impact on the labour force: postponement

of the retirement age. Successful experience in Shanghai about

30% are newly migrants

Population pyramid of Hong Kong 1976, 2003 and 2033

Replacement Migration: slow down ageing

Healthy Population

Life-long health promotion and practice

Healthy life style. Prevention: to prevent unnecessary

health cost: for example, smoking and attempted or completed suicides

To remove the obstacles for getting married and

bearing babies Economic and Financial impact is a real concern.

A community consensus is needed. How much the community is willing

to pay for it? A higher tax?

Discussions

Social Responsibility and Individual choice?

Someone has to pay for it. No free lunch!

Time to Act Now

Analogy of a clock: Second arm (politics) Minute arm

(economic policy) Hour arm

(demography policy)

Thank you