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A Conceptual Framework for Linking Climate Science with Management

Climate Change Response Program National Park Service

July 14, 2014SCB, Missoula, MT

John Gross Andy HansenTom Olliff Bill MonahanDave Theobald Forrest MeltonScott Goetz Nathan PiekielekTony Chang Patrick Jantz

Pinyon mortality at Bandelier National Monument. Photo: Craig Allen

Pinyon mortality at Bandelier National Monument. Photo: Craig Allen

What should we do?

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Mitigation: Reducing causes of climate change, mostly reducing GHGs.

Adaptation: Adjusting to and coping with actual or expected climate changes.

Managing Natural Resources under Climate Change

• Time horizon longer than planning and management horizons

• Relevant areas larger than management units

• High uncertainties in science (climate change, ecological response) and management effectiveness

• Coordination among multiple management units and jurisdictions

• Approach and methods rapidly evolving

Challenges

GoalDemonstrate the four steps of a climate adaptation planning strategy using NASA and other data and models, in two LCCs.

1. Identify Conservation Targets

2. Assess Vulnerability To Climate Change

4. ImplementManagementOptions

3. IdentifyManagementOptions

Monitor, Review, Revise

(Stein & Glick 2011)

Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project (LCC-VP)

NASA Applied Sciences Program

Project Team (LCC-VP) Montana State University

A. Hansen, N. Piekielek, T. Chang, L. Phillips, E. Garroutte

NPS / Great Northern LCC T. Olliff

NPS I&M & CCRP ProgramsB. Monahan, J. Gross

CSU Monterey Bay / NASA AmesF. Melton, W. Wang

Conservation Science PartnersD. Theobald

Woods Hole Research CenterS. Goetz, P. Jantz, T. Cormier,

S. ZolkosGreat Smoky Mountain NP

Western US

• Great Northern LCC - Tom Olliff

• NPS I&M Greater Yellowstone Network - Kristen Legg

• NPS I&M Rocky Mountain Network - Mike Britten

• Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee Whitebark Pine Subcommittee - Karl Buermeyer & Virginia Kelly

• Grand Teton National Park - Kelly McClosky

• Yellowstone National Park - Ann Rodman

• Rocky Mountain National Park - Ben Bobowski

Eastern US

• NPS I&M Appalachian Highlands Network - Robert Emmott

• NPS I&M Eastern Rivers and Mountains Network - Matt Marshall

• NPS I&M Mid-Atlantic Network - Jim Comiskey

• Delaware Water Gap National Recreational Area - Richard Evans & Leslie Morelock

• Great Smoky Mountains National Park - Jim Renfro

• Shenandoah National Park - Jim Schaberl

Agency Collaborations

SYM 7 Wildland Ecosystems Under Climate Change: Pioneering Approaches to Science and Management in the US Northern Rockies and

Appalachians

A conceptual framework for linking climate science with managementJohn Gross, NPS

Exposure across the GNLCC and APLCC: Climate, land use, ecosystem process Forrest Melton, NASA Ames and CA State University

Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation in the Appalachian LCCPatrick Jantz, Woods Hole Research Center

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the Great Northern LCC Andy Hansen, Montana State University

Tree and shrub species habitat suitability across Greater Yellowstone under climate change

Nathan Piekielek, Montana State University

Climate change management evaluation and implementation, with a focus on whitebark pine

Tom Olliff, Great Northern LCC

Panel: Linking climate science and management discussion panel: Key opportunities and challenges in protected areas.

Bill Monahan NPS (Moderator)Ben Bobowski Rocky Mountain NPDave Hallac Yellowstone NPVirginia Kelly Greater Yellowstone Coordinating CommitteePatrick Jantz Shenandoah National Park / Woods Hole

SYM 7 Wildland Ecosystems Under Climate Change: Pioneering Approaches to Science and Management in the US Northern Rockies and

Appalachians

- Reduce Exposure- Reduce Sensitivity- Increase Adaptive Capacity

- Exposure- Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity

- Species- Ecosystem- Biomes

- Policy- Practice- Institutional Changes

1. Identify Conservation Targets

2. Assess Vulnerability To Climate Change

4. ImplementManagementOptions

3. IdentifyManagementOptions

Monitor, Review, Revise

From: Stein and Glick 2011. Chapter 1. Introduction in Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A guide to climate change vulnerability assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.

Revisit planning as needed

Adjust actions as

needed

Re-assess vulnerability as needed

1. Identify conservation

goals and objectives

2. Assess climate impacts and

vulnerabilities

3. Review/revise conservation

goals and objectives

4. Identify adaptation

options

5. Evaluate and prioritize

adaptation actions

6. Implement priority adaptation

actions

7. Track action effectiveness and

ecological responses

Generalized Adaptation Framework

Stein et al. 2014. Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice

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Identify conservation targets

• What’s going to be different in the future?• How does CC challenge existing goals? • Which high priority resources should be the focus?

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CC issues identified by collaborators :

• Access to existing and emerging knowledge • Projections for dominant forest types and systems• 5-needle pines (whitebark, limber pine)• Cove forests, eastern spruce-fir, other hardwoods

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Vulnerability

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Exposure Sensitivity

What’s at risk and why?

Assessing Vulnerability

Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100 Hansen et al. 2014 Ecological Applications

1. Define the surrounding Protected Area CenteredEcosystem (PACE; Hansen et al.

2011).

2. Quantify past exposure.

1900-2010

Vulnerability

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Exposure SensitivityLand Use ChangeClimate ChangeInvasive Species

1900-2000

Assessing Vulnerability

Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100 Hansen et al. 2014 Ecological Applications

1. Define the surrounding Protected Area CenteredEcosystem (PACE; Hansen et al.

2011).

2. Quantify past exposure.

3. Quantify potential future exposure and potential impact.

4. Consider implications for management.

2010-2100

Vulnerability

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Exposure SensitivityLand Use ChangeClimate Change

Potential Biome Type

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Ecological Forecasting

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Multi-scale assessment of vulnerability

Species Ecological System LCC-Scale

Exposure CC Projections;TOPS variables

CC Projections;TOPS variables

CC Projections;TOPS variables

Sensitivity SDMs;Life history traits

Climate variation;LPJ modeling

Biome BGC responses; NPP

controls

Adaptive Capacity

Species & habitat traits;

Life history traits

Connectivity;Refugia;

Topography

ES diversity; Connectivity;Land forms

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Informing Resource Management DecisionCollaboration with GYCC WBP Subcommittee

Whitebark pine VA feeds into adaptation process

• Use forecasts to evaluate current strategy

• Identify new options based on forecasts and potential responses

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Questions?

• Comprehensive framework for adaptation• Applying multi-scale, state-of-the-art science

to resource management• Expect end-to-end accomplishments