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A Climate of Controversy –
The Danger of Scientific
Illiteracy in a Changing World
West Central Florida AMS Local Chapter Hillsborough Community College
Presented by Prof. James Wysong, Jr.
Don’t Believe Everything You
Think
But think about everything you believe – then ask yourself why?
Who is this curious fellow?
The Questions at Hand:
Why is scientific illiteracy dangerous?
Why do so many people believe in
nonsense? (and reject rational ideas in the
process)
What is the role of professionals, including
meteorologists and educators in
combating this problem?
Why do you believe what you do?
What is Science?
In its simplest definition, science is a way
of knowing. The word comes down to us
from the Latin word scientia – meaning "to
know."
Science and Superstition
For the greatest part of human history, people
lived in ignorance of the workings of the
natural world that surrounded them. The world
of our ancestors was often a cruel and
mysterious place.
The Power of Science
Science today offers explanations for
phenomena.
It makes predictions that guide us in the
quest for further understanding.
It is a self-correcting, ever-compounding
means of gaining knowledge about the
universe that we inhabit.
Mistakes will happen
Paradigms will change
“All our science, measured against reality,
is primitive and childlike – and yet it is the
most precious thing we have.”
Albert Einstein
Einstein’s words remind us that science
does not have all the answers. We still
have much to learn. Science shows us the
way to knowing, it is, as the late Carl
Sagan referred to it, “A candle in the dark".
Does science threaten our beliefs?
What scares some people about the findings of science is the same thing that scares them about the truth in many other matters – it may differ from what we have already decided to believe.
The philosopher Henre Poincare observed: “We also know how cruel the truth often is, and we wonder whether delusion is not more consoling.”
“The first principle is
that you must not
fool yourself and you
are the easiest person
to fool.”Dr. Richard Feynman
Nobel Laureate
What Don’t We Like About Science?
We like certainty – science often only gives us probabilities.
We like simple answers, but that’s not always what we get from science.
Sometimes scientific answers are counterintuitive – and we don’t like that!
Yes! Humid air
really is lighter!
An educated person is one who has
learned that information almost
always turns out to be at best
incomplete and very often false,
misleading, fictitious, mendacious -
just dead wrong.
Russell Baker
What is the basis of our beliefs?
We seldom “choose” our religion or political
ideology – we are born into it.
When it comes to scientific evidence on
societal risks “people endorse which
position reinforces their connection to
others with whom they share important
commitments.”
Dan Kahan in Nature (1/20/2010, 463, 296-297) - The Psychology of the Resistance to Social Change Thinking
What is the basis of our beliefs?
This leads to adopting “no thinking required” “positions” (on the Left and the Right)
Alternatively, we “cherry pick” data to support a priori beliefs.
In particular, the Internet has increased the incidence of selective exposure, (more commonly called confirmation bias or biased assimilation).1
1 True Enough: Learning to Live in a Post-Fact Society
by Farhad Manjoo (Wiley, 2008)
Wouldn’t it be nice if……?
That’s what science and critical thinking are for.
“He that cannot reason is a fool.
He that will not is a bigot.
He that dare not is a slave.”
Andrew Carnegie
Communication or Obfuscation
Doubt – the double-edged sword
“Fair and Balanced” - Should we always
frame things as a debate? Why?
Are you listening, or waiting to talk?
You might not be wrong – but are you
right?
The intelligent
man finds
almost
everything
ridiculous, the
sensible man
almost nothing. Johann Wolfgang
von Goethe
Ignorance is bliss, sensibility is
comfortable, informed skepticism can be
unsettling.
Where do people get their news? Is
this also where they get their views?
Another brick in the wall…….Roger Waters wrote this about his views on formal education. He hated his
grammar school teachers and felt they were more interested in keeping the
kids quiet than teaching them to think.
We don’t need no education
(OH YES WE DO!)
The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 4-5, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling
error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
Public Perceptions
59 percent1 are convinced that global
warming is happening.
39 percent2 now believe that global
warming is caused mainly by human
activities
42 percent3 believe it is caused mostly by
natural changes in the environment.
As compared to 2007 data from a similar survey:1 Down from 71% in 2007 2 Down from 69% 3Up from 29%
Public Perceptions
48 percent believe that there is consensus
among the scientific community.
40 percent believe there is a lot of
disagreement among scientists over
whether global warming is occurring.
American Opinions on Global Warming: Summary
A Yale University / Gallup / ClearVision Institute Poll - 2007
Principal Investigator: Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz - School of Forestry & Environmental
Studies Yale University
Perspective on public beliefs:
42% believe in ghosts
32% believe in UFOs
26% believe in astrology
23% believe in witches
20% believe in reincarnation – that they
were once another person.
Harris Poll of 2,303 adults surveyed online between November 2 and 11, 2009 by Harris Interactive.
“Everybody needs to believe in something….I
believe I’ll have another drink” W.C. Fields
A thought as Halloween approaches:
More Americans believe in ghosts than
Anthropogenic Climate Change (can we
presume that they feel the evidence is
more conclusive?)
Now that’s spooky!
AMS and NWA T.V. Meteorologists
54 percent indicated that global warming is
happening.
31 percent reported that global warming is
caused mostly by human activities
63 percent reported it is caused mostly by
natural changes in the environment.
Maibach, E., Wilson, K & Witte, J. (2010) A National Survey of Television
Meteorologists about Climate Change: Preliminary Findings. George Mason University.
Fairfax, VA: Center for Climate Change Communication.
Credentials of respondents:
A.M.S. –CBM seal: 28.7%, A.M.S. Seal of Approval: 55%, N.W.A. Seal of Approval: 33.3%
AMS and NWA T.V. Meteorologists
93 percent said they are fairly or very well
informed about the causes of global warming.
30 percent said they could easily change their
mind about global warming.
27 percent agreed with the statement by a
prominent TV weathercaster1: “global warming is
a scam.”
Maibach, E., Wilson, K & Witte, J. (2010) A National Survey of Television
Meteorologists about Climate Change: Preliminary Findings. George Mason University.
Fairfax, VA: Center for Climate Change Communication.
John Coleman – Co-founder of the
Weather Channel™
Some data to consider:
A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States reviewed
publication and citation data for 1,372 climate
researchers and resulted in the following two
conclusions:
(i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively
publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC
(Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and
(ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific
prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are
substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
Some Concluding Thoughts:
We are human, and inherently subject to
biases and irrationality – we have to guard
against this.
Opinions are fine – when labeled as such.
In the professions where we enjoy the
public’s trust, we must exercise great care.
We must keep thinking!
“My idea of education is to unsettle the
minds of the young and inflame their
intellects.”Robert Maynard Hutchins
Thank You for Your Kind
Attention –
please keep thinking.
Jim Wysong