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8/14/2019 A Choice Between Energy and Water
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SHORTAGE&
DISEMPOWERING SOLUTIONSWilson M. FortalezaFreedom From Debt Coalition
June 23, 2009, Davao City
A FORUM ON THE DCWD-HEDCOR ISSUEBATTLE OVER THE PANIGAN-TAMUGAN
RIVERS OF DAVAO CITY
SHORTAGE&
DISEMPOWERING SOLUTIONS
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FDC frameworks
On Power The power industry, due to its inherentnature, should be placed at the realm ofpublic domainand its products and services
remain aspublic goods.
The principle strongly pursues theprogressive role of the State that it cannotand should not consign the industry entirely
to private hands and let the marketdetermine what is good for the public.
FDC is also for a power shift from dirtyto clean and renewable power
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FDC frameworks
On Water
Upholding the peoples right
to water
Water, the same with power,are public goods that shouldremain in public domain
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Power Situation
As of Dec. 2007
Installed generating capacity is15,937 MW
Dependable capacity is 13,205
MW
Source: DOE
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Power Situation
PEAK DEMAND
Source: PDP-DOE
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Power Situation
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Source: PDP-DOE
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Power Situation
GRID CONSUMPTION
Source: PDP-DOE
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Power Sales
Source: DOE Power Development Plan,
7,890
GWh
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Demand forecast
Grid 2006
2007
2008
2009 2010
Luzon 6,72
8
6,98
1
7,25
2
7,552 7,878
Visayas 1,154
1,214
1,289
1,364 1,448
Mindanao 1,293
1,363
1,440
1,525 1,620
PHILIPPINES
9,175
9,558
9,981
10,441
10,946
Source: Transmission Development Plan,
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Demand forecast(Mindanao)
Source: DOE Power Development Plan,
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How is demand
projected? Historically, governments demandprojection is poor (Top to bottom approach).Poor planning is also a factor.
DOE makes use of an aggregation of thedemand projection from the DistributionDevelopment Plans(DDPs) from distributionutilities plus projections from directly-connected non-utilities.
TransCos forecast is based oneconometric modeling with Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) as main explanatory variable.
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Supply-Demandforecast
Source: DOE Power Development Plan,
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Supply-Demandforecast
Source: Transmission Development Plan,2007
Demand projection is always onthe High Demand Case
Both cases show a radical declinein the demand forecast for Luzon,owing to the very low projection ofthe Meralco, which demand covers
around 70% of the aggregate demandin the Luzon grid.
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Supply-Demandforecast
Source: DOE Power Development Plan,
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Supply-Demandforecast
Source: DOE Power Development Plan,
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Supply-Demandforecast
Source: DOE Power Development Plan,
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Dependable Capacity inMindanao
Source: DOE Power Development Plan,
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Teetering intorecession
SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009
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Sharp FallGDP AND GNP (in million PhP)
SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009
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All industryperformance
GDP by industry origin (in million PhP)
SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009
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The cost of wrongprojections Consumers are made to pay thefull cost of installed capacitieswhether they are consumed or not, or
even those that were not generatedat all.
We also pay for all the risks
The case of the IPP contractswhich we were made to pay throughthe PPA.
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The Mindanao Grid
Source: Transmission Development Plan,
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The Mindanao Grid
Source: Transmission Development Plan,2007
In TransCos CAPEX Program approved bythe ERC, the program is mainly driven byload growth .
Of the estimated P56.23-B, 82% or P46-B
are for projects necessary to meet loadgrowth within the planning horizon. (40% forLuzon, 28% for Visayas, and 32% forMindanao.
For the projects for implementation,however, Capex driven by load growth is notas high as the ongoing projects as itaccounts for only 58%.
In Mindanao, all of the projects for
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Dropped inter-connectionproject
Source: Transmission Development Plan,2007
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TransCos ongoingprojects in the Mindanao
Grid
Source: Transmission Development Plan,
Abaga-Kirahon 230 kV Transmission Line toprovide additional transmission corridor to the676.4 MW Agus Hydro Complex which accountsfor 70% of total dependable capacity for the
Mindanao Grid. The Agus 2-Kibawe and Abaga-Togoloan 138 kV lines serve as Agus link to thegrid.
The bombing of Agus 2-Kibawe line resulted in
huge power swing to the other corridor. TheAbaga-Togoloan line will not be able to carry70% of the 90% load as a result of the Agus 2-Kibawe outage.
The project is expected to be completed June2008 and would serve as initial step in
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Power planning/PlantSitting Choosing as site for a new powerplant is an important part of electricsystem planning. There are plants thatare site-specific such as hydro,
geothermal, wind among others.
Social-acceptability must also be
considered.
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War over water
"The wars of thenext centurywill be aboutwater."Ismail Serageldin,Vice president of the WorldBank
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Water for ALL
Power can beproduced from manysources
Although the globeis made up mainly ofwater, potable wateris not a finiteresources.
Availablefreshwater amountsto less than one-halfof 1 percent of all the
water on earth. The
Global consumptionof water is doublingevery 20 years, morethan twice the rate ofhuman population
growth.
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Making a choice
Why make us choose between a darkand waterless future when the answer isobviously clear:
Nobody desires suchkind of world!
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Is there a win-winsolution?
Kung ayaw may
dahilan,Kung gusto maraming
paraan
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A proposal for a Multi-
StakeholdersDevelopment
Planning Process Panay Case (SeparatePresentation)
Naga Case (ParticipatoryPlanning)
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Thank You!
End of presentation