A case book of the Double Trouble State Park Wildfire

(2002)

Joseph J. CharneyUSDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, East Lansing, MI

Daniel KeyserDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at

Albany, Albany, NY

DTSP wildfire case study

DTSP wildfire event

• Occurred on 2 June 2002 in east-central NJ• An abandoned campfire grew into a major wildfire by

1800 UTC• Burned 1,300 acres• Forced closure of the Garden State Parkway• Damaged or destroyed 36 homes and outbuildings• Directly threatened over 200 homes• Forced evacuation of 500 homes• Caused ~$400,000 in property damage

DTSP wildfire event

Fire location

OKXupper air station

KWRI surface station

New Brunswick wind profiler

Time (UTC) Activity reported1415 fire tower weather: wind west at 4 m sP−1P, gusting to 9 m sP−1P; temperature 24°C; relative humidity 62%1700 Estimated start time of fire1709 Fire reported by fire tower1714 Direct attack on fire by NJFFS firefighters begins1725 fire tower reports winds greater than 18 m sP−1P; direct attack abandoned1726 Backfiring operations begin north and east of the fire1731 Request submitted for to be closed1735 Backfiring operations begin south of the fire1747 Request submitted for aerial support for fighting the fire1751 Fire jumps and approaches the 1800 Fire is officially declared to be a major fire1801 Fire has crossed the 1808 First report of a house being burned1818 Wind shift reported on the fire line1823 Fire crews prepare for structure protection1851 Wind shift to the north reported; former right flank of the fire becomes the head fire

1857 fire tower reports winds north at 16 m sP−1P

1936 Big wind shift reported on the fire line1937 fire tower reports winds shifting to the east, northeast1938 Right flank becomes head fire1953 Fire has been diverted south of the line of homes located just east of the

1959 Wind shift reported on fire line; electric lines down on roadway2001 House on fire2004 Evacuation order issued for homes in the area2010 Wind shift reported on fire line2024 Wind shift reported on fire line; wind shift causes fire to spread rapidly towards the south directly towards a

crew2055 East flank of fire reported to be growing; fire crews respond to quell2113 Fire west of the reported to be contained2136 Fire declared to be under control2148 fire tower reports winds diminishing to less than 9 m sP−1P

Table 1. Sequence of events during the Double Trouble State Park wildfire from 1415 UTC to 2148 UTC 2 June 2002 [adapted from NJFFS (2003)]

Fig. 3. Surface analyses of potential temperature (contour interval 4°C, solid), mixing ratio (value indicated in g kg−1 at station location; contour interval 5 g kg−1, dashed, shaded as indicated in legend), and wind (full barb 5 m s−1) valid at (a) 1200 UTC 2 June 2002, (b) 1800 UTC 2 June 2002, and (c) 0000 UTC 3 June 2002. Adapted from surface analyses generated and archived in the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York.

Fig. 4. NARR upper-air analyses of (a) geopotential height (contour interval 30 m, solid), temperature (°C, color shaded as indicated in legend), and wind (maximum vector 25 m sP

−1P) at 1200 UTC 2

June 2002 at 850 hPa, (b) geopotential height (contour interval 120 m, solid), wind speed (m s P

−1P,

color shaded as indicated in legend), and wind (maximum vector 75 m sP

−1P) at 1200 UTC 2

June 2002 at 300 hPa, (c) as in (a) except for 0000 UTC 3 June 2002, and (d) as in (b) except for 0000 UTC 3 June 2002.

Fig. 6. Skew T–log p soundings at Upton, NY (OKX), valid at (a) 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 and (b) 0000 UTC 3 June 2002. Adapted from the University of Wyoming weather web page (TU

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html UT).

DTSP wildfire observations

Observed skew T–log p sounding at Upton, NY (OKX), valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002

Wind profiler observations at New Brunswick, NJ, from 1100 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002

DTSP wildfire observations

Fig. 8. Surface meteograms from 0000 UTC to 2300 UTC 2 June 2002 for (a) McGuire Air Force Base, NJ (WRI), and (b) Atlantic City, NJ (ACY). Adapted from the Plymouth State Weather Center web page (TUhttp://vortex.plymouth.edu/statlog-u.html UT).

Fig. 12. Northwest–southeast-oriented vertical cross section of simulated relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) and pressure-coordinate vertical velocity (contour interval 10 dPa s−1, solid, starting at 10 dPa s−1) valid at (a) 1500 UTC 2 June 2002, (b) 1600 UTC 2 June 2002, (c) 1700 UTC 2 June 2002, and (d) 1800 UTC 2 June 2002. The fire location is indicated by the fire icon at 208 km on the abscissa of the cross section. The location of the cross section is indicated by the thick black line in Fig. 10.

Fig. 13. Time series at the fire location valid from 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 to 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 of simulated (a) surface relative humidity (%), (b) surface wind speed (m s P

−1P), and (c) PBL

depth (m). The fire location is indicated by the fire icon in Fig. 10.

Fig. 14. Time–height cross section at the fire location valid from 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 to 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 of simulated (a) relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) and (b) wind speed (m s P

−1P, color shaded as indicated in legend). The fire

location is indicated by the fire icon in Fig. 10.

Fig. 9. Simulated surface relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) and surface wind (full barb 5 m s P

−1P) valid at

1800 UTC 2 June 2002.

Fig. 10. Simulated relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) at 700 hPa valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002. The fire icon indicates the fire location and the thick black line shows the orientation of the vertical cross section in Fig. 12.

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002

MRF

DTSP wildfire simulationsWRF simulations initialized at 1200 UTC 1 June 2002

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002

YSU

DTSP wildfire simulations

MYJ

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002

DTSP wildfire simulations

MYNN

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002

DTSP wildfire simulations

MRF

DTSP wildfire simulations

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

YSU

DTSP wildfire simulations

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

MYJ

DTSP wildfire simulations

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

MYNN

DTSP wildfire simulations

Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

surface temperature (°C)

21.0022.00

23.0024.00

25.0026.00

27.0028.00

29.0030.00

1200

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2100

MRF

YSU

MYNN

MYJ

OBS - McGuire AFB

DTSP wildfire simulations

Time series at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated surface temperature

surface mixing ratio (g kg−1)

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

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12.00

14.00

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MRF

YSU

MYNN

MYJ

OBS - McGuire AFB

DTSP wildfire simulations

Time series at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated surface mixing ratio

surface wind speed (m s−1)

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

10.00

1200

1300

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MRF

YSU

MYNN

MYJ

OBS - McGuire AFB

DTSP wildfire simulations

Time series at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated surface wind speed

MRF temperature profiles

0

0.5

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0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

temperature (°C)

he

igh

t (k

m)

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

YSU temperature profiles

0

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0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

temperature (°C)

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igh

t (k

m)

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

MYJ temperature profiles

0

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0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

temperature (°C)

he

igh

t (k

m)

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

MYNN temperature profiles

0

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0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

temperature (°C)

he

igh

t (k

m)

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1300

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

MRF mixing ratio profiles

0

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0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

mixing ratio (g kg−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

1200

1300

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2100

DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

YSU mixing ratio profiles

0

0.5

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0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

mixing ratio (g kg−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

1200

1300

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

MYJ mixing ratio profiles

0

0.5

1

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3.5

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

mixing ratio (g kg−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

1200

1300

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

MYNN mixing ratio profiles

0

0.5

1

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0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

mixing ratio (g kg−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

1200

1300

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2100

DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

MRF wind speed profiles

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1

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3.5

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

wind speed (m s−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

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1300

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2100

DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

YSU wind speed profiles

0

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0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

wind speed (m s−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

MYJ wind speed profiles

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wind speed (m s−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

MYNN wind speed profiles

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0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

wind speed (m s−1)

he

igh

t (k

m)

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DTSP wildfire simulations

Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

• An intercomparison of the MRF, YSU, MYJ, and MYNN PBL schemes in WRF version 3.1 for the DTSP wildfire event indicates that the behavior of these schemes is consistent with that documented in the literature.

• The MRF and YSU schemes produce less directional wind shear than the MYJ and MYNN schemes.

• The diurnal growth of the mixed layer is more gradual in the YSU, MYJ, and MYNN schemes than in the MRF scheme.

• The YSU and MYNN PBL schemes exhibit a deeper mixed layer than the MYJ scheme.

Summary

Future work

• The methodology developed for the DTSP wildfire event will be extended to additional events.

• Candidates include the Warren Grove (NJ, 2007), Evans Road (NC, 2008), and Cottonville (WI, 2005) wildfires.

• Aspects to be examined for these events:

1) effects of the entrainment formulation on mixed-layer growth

2) sensitivity of mixing ratio profiles in the mixed layer to the choice of PBL scheme

3) performance of the PBL schemes in high-wind regimes