William D’haeseleer

K.U.Leuven Energy Institute

A Carbon-Free Energy Society A Carbon-Free Energy Society by 2050 by 2050

What do we Expect from What do we Expect from Policy Makers to Get there?”Policy Makers to Get there?”

IEA WEO 2009

Annual energy related CO2 worldwide emissions

450 ppm scenario

Climate-Change DriverClimate-Change Driver

To limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levelTo limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial level

Climate-Change ChallengeClimate-Change Challenge

Ref:

Jos Delbeke, CEU

To limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levelTo limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial level

False Start with Copenhagen?False Start with Copenhagen?

OECD should decrease by 30% in 2020

But

after Copenhagen, no commitments and EU sticks to -20%

Ref:

Jos Delbeke, CEU

And the answer is…And the answer is…

• Solutions must rely on technologytechnology

• Clever combination of existing technologies

• New, perhaps revolutionary technologies

All Means Will be NecessaryAll Means Will be Necessary

Ref: IEA ETP 2010

Importance of R & DImportance of R & D

Europe’s ChallengeEurope’s Challenge

Reference: European Commission COM(2011) 112/4

Solutions ?Solutions ?

• Need paradigm shift for energy provision• Completely different system by 2050-…:

– Maybe H2 as partly energy carrier (?)– Maybe 2-nd & 3-rd gen biofuels successful (?)– Maybe new synthetic liquid fuels from CO2

capture by means of solar light (?) – But likely much more electrified!much more electrified!

• Balancing, flexibilityBalancing, flexibility• Intelligent Grids (HV & LV), StorageIntelligent Grids (HV & LV), Storage

How to implement energy revolution?How to implement energy revolution?

• Must take the right decisions now to turn ocean liner !

• Daring, visionary but consistent policies

• But thorny challenges & inconveniences

How get to 2050?How get to 2050?

UncertaintiesUncertainties

• Popular uprisings MENA

How get to 2050?How get to 2050?

UncertaintiesUncertainties

• Nuclear Accident Fukushima

How get to 2050?How get to 2050?

UncertaintiesUncertainties

• Stability of

EURO zone?

Need investments!

How get to 2050?How get to 2050?

Further complications…Further complications…

• Shale gas seems way to go… but…

Further complications…Further complications…

• Battle for future grids… which grids???

Challenges / OpportunitiesChallenges / Opportunities

• Energy & GHG challenges force paradigm shiftparadigm shift

• New energy system creates opportunities for businessopportunities for business

• Should concentrate on nichesniches and excel in those high-tech domainshigh-tech domains

Challenges / OpportunitiesChallenges / Opportunities

Combined approach needed:

- Sustainable energy provision

- Business involvement to shape the energy revolution

Policy decisions, based on rational analyses, facts & figures are crucial