A. Busalacchi, R. Murtugudde

Ocean Ecosystem

Technology and Partnerships

By way of reminder:By way of reminder:

In its former life, NCEP was known as the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The “National Center for Environmental Prediction” was coined in 1995 after Dr. R. McPherson, Director at the time, determined that NOAA required an operational forecast and products unit with a name that was ‘extensible’ in keeping with its mission.

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction as its name and mission statement implies strive to perform truly environmental prediction beyond weather prediction to include water, oceans, and ecosystems.

NCEP Mission Statement

NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Space Environment Center

Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

NCEP Strategic Vision

Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BEDTHE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

Climate Community

Climate Community

Research &Development

Research &Development

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

Mission:Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

Long-term plans for advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. Long-term plans for advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. ecosystems; air ecosystems; air chemistry; carbon cycle; fisherieschemistry; carbon cycle; fisheries))

ChallengesChallenges

• Implementing across multiple line Implementing across multiple line organizations/matrix managementorganizations/matrix management

• Interdisciplinary FundingInterdisciplinary Funding

• Dedicated Eco TestbedDedicated Eco Testbed

• Observational requirements both in Observational requirements both in situ and space basedsitu and space based

• OSSEsOSSEs

• ReanalysesReanalyses

ChallengesChallenges

• Critical mass of in house expertise in Critical mass of in house expertise in collaboration with external communitycollaboration with external community

• Realistic assessment of computing and Realistic assessment of computing and storage/access requirementsstorage/access requirements

• Human dimension component; similar Human dimension component; similar to LULCC, modeling human to LULCC, modeling human interactions and impacts on coastal interactions and impacts on coastal ecosystemsecosystems

• Watershed land-use scenarios and Watershed land-use scenarios and regional climate change projectionsregional climate change projections

• International collaborationInternational collaboration

ChallengesChallenges

• Within the context of the Earth Within the context of the Earth System Science Partnerships: Water, System Science Partnerships: Water, Carbon, Food, and Health are being Carbon, Food, and Health are being brought together within the context brought together within the context of climate changeof climate change

• Parallel here for ocean ecosystemsParallel here for ocean ecosystems

• Ocean RISAsOcean RISAs

Pacific

Northwest

South EastConsortium

Western Water Assessment

CLIMAS

California

Applications

Project

New England

Carolinas

Hawaiian and PacificIslands

*

*

Spreading to regions that can benefit from improved climate decision-support…

RISA’s are…

October 22-23 Plenary October 22-23 Plenary SpeakersSpeakerswww.climateneeds.umd.edwww.climateneeds.umd.eduu

Norman Augustine, former CEO of Lockheed MartinNorman Augustine, former CEO of Lockheed Martin

R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence AgencyR. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence Agency

James Mahoney, former Director, Climate Change Science ProgramJames Mahoney, former Director, Climate Change Science Program

Gregory Hobbs, Justice of Colorado Supreme CourtGregory Hobbs, Justice of Colorado Supreme Court Bryan Hannegan, Vice President of Electric Power Research InstituteBryan Hannegan, Vice President of Electric Power Research Institute

Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio, Rockefeller FoundationCristina Rumbaitis del Rio, Rockefeller Foundation

Amr ElSawy, Incoming President, Noblis Inc.Amr ElSawy, Incoming President, Noblis Inc.

Bob Ryan, NBC meteorologist and former President of AMSBob Ryan, NBC meteorologist and former President of AMS

Joseph Tydings, U.S. Senator from Maryland 1965-1971Joseph Tydings, U.S. Senator from Maryland 1965-1971

Monday Oct. 22 Monday Oct. 22 Morning PanelsMorning Panels

Insurance/investmentInsurance/investment

F. Nutter/President, Reinsurance Assoc Amer.F. Nutter/President, Reinsurance Assoc Amer.R. Flynn/TravelersR. Flynn/TravelersR. Tyler/Maryland Insurance CommissionerR. Tyler/Maryland Insurance CommissionerLarry Johnson/AllstateLarry Johnson/AllstateL. Gritzo/FM GlobalL. Gritzo/FM GlobalS. Steinmetz/Fireman’s FundS. Steinmetz/Fireman’s Fund

AgricultureAgriculture

Carolyn Olson/USDACarolyn Olson/USDAToby Halkovich/Cakebread CellarsToby Halkovich/Cakebread CellarsGhassem Asrar/USDAGhassem Asrar/USDACharles Walthall/USDACharles Walthall/USDAJim Nugent/Michigan State Univ. ExtensionJim Nugent/Michigan State Univ. Extension

Terrestrial EcosystemsTerrestrial Ecosystems

Fred Norbury/National Forest ServiceFred Norbury/National Forest ServiceJames Rattling Leaf/Rep. Native LandsJames Rattling Leaf/Rep. Native LandsLara Hansen/World Wildlife FundLara Hansen/World Wildlife FundJohn Musinsky/Conservation InternationalJohn Musinsky/Conservation International

Parks & RecreationParks & Recreation

Julie Thomas/National Park ServiceJulie Thomas/National Park ServiceWilliam Maloney/Am. Society of Travel AgentsWilliam Maloney/Am. Society of Travel AgentsMark Wenzler/Natl Parks & Conservation AssnMark Wenzler/Natl Parks & Conservation Assn

Monday Oct. Monday Oct. 2222Afternoon Afternoon PanelsPanels

Energy

Ray Keane/Timmons Design EngineeringRay Keane/Timmons Design EngineeringSteve Heins/Orion Energy SystemsSteve Heins/Orion Energy SystemsJeff Harris/Alliance to Save EnergyJeff Harris/Alliance to Save EnergyMichael Eckhart/Amer Council on Michael Eckhart/Amer Council on

Renewable EnergyRenewable EnergyArmin Rosencrantz/StanfordArmin Rosencrantz/Stanford

State/Local/MunicipalState/Local/Municipal

Cynthia Rosenzweig/NASACynthia Rosenzweig/NASADoug Duncan/former County Executive Doug Duncan/former County Executive

Montgomery CountyMontgomery CountyDoug Erickson/Amer Hosp AssocDoug Erickson/Amer Hosp AssocGeorge Nichols/Metro WashingtonGeorge Nichols/Metro Washington Council of GovtsCouncil of Govts

National Security

Richard Engel/Natl Intelligence CouncilRichard Engel/Natl Intelligence CouncilGary Geernaert/Los Alamos Natl LaboratoryGary Geernaert/Los Alamos Natl LaboratoryLinda Wennerberg/NASALinda Wennerberg/NASALawrence Farrell/Natl Defense Industrial AssnLawrence Farrell/Natl Defense Industrial AssnRobert Brammer/Northrop GrummanRobert Brammer/Northrop Grumman

Coastal/Marine EcosystemsCoastal/Marine Ecosystems

Barry Stamey/Noblis Inc.Barry Stamey/Noblis Inc.Beth McGee/Ches. Bay FoundationBeth McGee/Ches. Bay FoundationRichard Beamish/Amer Fisheries SocietyRichard Beamish/Amer Fisheries SocietyLori Arguelles/Natl Marine Sanctuary FdnLori Arguelles/Natl Marine Sanctuary FdnSpokesman/Coastal States OrganizationSpokesman/Coastal States Organization

Tuesday Oct. Tuesday Oct. 2323Morning Morning PanelsPanels

WaterWater

Gerry Galloway/UMDGerry Galloway/UMDJeanine Jones/Calif Dept Jeanine Jones/Calif Dept

Water ResourcesWater ResourcesMichael Shapiro/EPAMichael Shapiro/EPAJohn Promise/No Central Texas COGJohn Promise/No Central Texas COGEugene Stakhiv/US Army Eugene Stakhiv/US Army

Corps of EngineersCorps of Engineers

Commerce & ManufacturingCommerce & Manufacturing

Randy Overbey, former exec. AlcoaRandy Overbey, former exec. AlcoaJohn Carberry/DupontJohn Carberry/DupontJon Malay/Lockheed MartinJon Malay/Lockheed MartinDave Crowe/National Assn of Home BuildersDave Crowe/National Assn of Home Builders

Human HealthHuman Health

Georges Benjamin/President, Amer Public Georges Benjamin/President, Amer Public Health AssnHealth Assn

Dennis Lang/Natl Inst of Environ. Dennis Lang/Natl Inst of Environ. Health SciencesHealth Sciences

Lynn Goldman/Johns Hopkins Univ.Lynn Goldman/Johns Hopkins Univ.

TransportationTransportation

Howard Aylesworth/Aerospace Industries Howard Aylesworth/Aerospace Industries AssnAssn

Rob Lempert/RAND Corp.Rob Lempert/RAND Corp.John Porcari/MD Secy of TransportationJohn Porcari/MD Secy of TransportationJoanne Potter/Cambridge SystematicsJoanne Potter/Cambridge SystematicsBurr Stewart/Seattle Port Authority Burr Stewart/Seattle Port Authority Rob Padgette/Amer Public Trans AssnRob Padgette/Amer Public Trans Assn

The needs for coping with climate variability and The needs for coping with climate variability and adapting to climate change, therefore represent a adapting to climate change, therefore represent a real and emerging challenge to the Nationreal and emerging challenge to the Nation

The deliverance of climate observations and The deliverance of climate observations and services involves the transition across basic services involves the transition across basic research, applied research, operations, research, applied research, operations, applications, applications, andand engagement with the user engagement with the user communitycommunity

Most of the effort to date has been focused on the Most of the effort to date has been focused on the physical climate system and not product drivenphysical climate system and not product driven

However, climate impacts and services involve However, climate impacts and services involve business, finance, agriculture, engineering, public business, finance, agriculture, engineering, public health, public policy, etc.health, public policy, etc.

No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the need for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)need for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)

Need for Regional/Watershed/Local Need for Regional/Watershed/Local FocusFocus Supercomputing implicationsSupercomputing implications Need for national strategyNeed for national strategy Necessary but not sufficientNecessary but not sufficient

Emphasis on “Second Derivative”: Emphasis on “Second Derivative”: Importance of extremes, abrupt Importance of extremes, abrupt change, surprises, mix of time scaleschange, surprises, mix of time scales

Climate Impacts Climate Impacts Climate Consequences Climate Consequences Sustainability Sustainability Resilience Resilience Need for Integrated Approach, system Need for Integrated Approach, system

perspective, consideration of multiple perspective, consideration of multiple stressorsstressors

Climate model Climate model Business “model” Business “model” Need to entrain business and finance Need to entrain business and finance

schools with focus on specific problemsschools with focus on specific problems

Need for integrated climate informationNeed for integrated climate information Accessible to diverse user groupsAccessible to diverse user groups Continuity of servicesContinuity of services

NCDC, PCMDI, NIDISNCDC, PCMDI, NIDIS Need a National Climate Information Need a National Climate Information

ClearinghouseClearinghouse

The Earth System will experience real climate change over The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, exceeding the scope of natural climate the next 50 years, exceeding the scope of natural climate variability. variability.

A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to this A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to this certainty of climate variability and change in the next half certainty of climate variability and change in the next half century (this question is apart from the issue of mitigation).century (this question is apart from the issue of mitigation).

In response, NOAA is considering how comprehensive climate In response, NOAA is considering how comprehensive climate services would best inform decisions about adaptation. services would best inform decisions about adaptation.

Similarly, NASA is considering the optimal configuration of the Similarly, NASA is considering the optimal configuration of the next generation of Earth, environmental, and climate next generation of Earth, environmental, and climate observations to be deployed over the coming 10-20 years. observations to be deployed over the coming 10-20 years.

Moreover, much of the added-value information for specific Moreover, much of the added-value information for specific climate-related decisions will be provided by private, academic climate-related decisions will be provided by private, academic and non-governmental organizations. and non-governmental organizations.

The needs for coping with climate variability and The needs for coping with climate variability and adapting to climate change, therefore represent a real adapting to climate change, therefore represent a real and emerging challenge to the Nationand emerging challenge to the Nation

The deliverance of climate observations and services The deliverance of climate observations and services involves the transition across basic research, applied involves the transition across basic research, applied research, operations, applications, research, operations, applications, andand engagement with engagement with the user communitythe user community

Most of the effort to date has been focused on the Most of the effort to date has been focused on the physical climate system and not product drivenphysical climate system and not product driven

However, climate impacts and services involve business, However, climate impacts and services involve business, finance, agriculture, engineering, public health, public finance, agriculture, engineering, public health, public policy, etc.policy, etc.

No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the need No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the need for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)

What new commercial opportunities will open in response to climate What new commercial opportunities will open in response to climate change?change?

As a result of increased temperature extremes, what new products, such as As a result of increased temperature extremes, what new products, such as high-grade insulation, will be required in building construction?high-grade insulation, will be required in building construction?

What are the expected population shifts in response to climate change?What are the expected population shifts in response to climate change?

What aspects of climate change will have the most rapid and visible impact What aspects of climate change will have the most rapid and visible impact on public attitudes, and which will be most likely to prompt stringent on public attitudes, and which will be most likely to prompt stringent government regulation?government regulation?

What will be the changes in type and location of pest populations?What will be the changes in type and location of pest populations?

What emerging infectious diseases will be induced by a changing climate? What emerging infectious diseases will be induced by a changing climate?

What specifications will be required for future seed design as a result of What specifications will be required for future seed design as a result of climate change?climate change?

Questions to Speakers and Panelists:How would you characterize the exposure or vulnerability to climate variability or change impacting your organization?

Does climate variability and/or change currently factor into your organization's objectives or operations?

Are any of your existing plans being affected by climate or projections of climate change? If yes, can you provide specific case information?

Is your organization developing a plan for adapting to climate change?

What are your needs for climate observations, predictions, and services? Please cite one or more specific examples when possible.

Do you currently have access to the climate information your organization needs?

What next steps are needed to assure effective use of climate services in your decision making?

Model RequirementsModel Requirements

• CFS CFS WRF WRF

• DailyDaily

• ~ 10s kms~ 10s kms

• T, U, V, Precip, runoff, soil moisture, T, U, V, Precip, runoff, soil moisture, soil temp, nutrient loadingsoil temp, nutrient loading