A A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; [email protected]

COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES.

A A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; [email protected] V. V. Oganesyan, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected] K. G. Rubinstein, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANNUAL EXTREMES

Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m

Tm

ax

1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201024

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201122

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Tm

ax

Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 200120

25

30

35

40

45

Tm

ax

Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m

1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 200626

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Tm

ax

Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201127

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

Tm

ax

Moscow - -0.01

St-Petersburg – 0.02

Yekaterinburg – 0.03

Rostov – 0.03

Tomsk – 0.00

TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANNUAL EXTREMES

Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m

1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15 Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m

1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

Tm

in

Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

Tm

in

Moscow – 0.07



Rostov – 0.04

Tomsk – 0.04

TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS

Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m

mm

1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201010.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

mm


1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

mm

Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m

1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 20060

20

40

60

80

100

120

mm

Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

mm

Moscow – 0.07



Rostov - -0.010

Tomsk – 0.00

TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL AMPLITUDES OF THE TEMPERATURE EXTREMES

Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m

Am

pl(C

)

1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200045

50

55

60

65

70

75

80


1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201140

45

50

55

60

65

70

Am

pl(c

)


1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201145

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Am

pl(C

)

Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m

1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 200640

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Am

pl(C

)

Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201155

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Am

pl(C

)

Moscow - -0.09



Rostov – 0.00

Tomsk - -0.07

EMPIRICAL AND MODEL SIMULATED DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND VALUES OF THE TEMPERATURE FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD

SIMULATED PRECIPITATIONS EMPIRICAL PRECIPITATIONS

87%

7%

3%1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0 13 25 38 50 63 75 mm0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

No

of

ob

s

93%

5%2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0 11 22 34 44 50 62 73 mm0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

No

of

obs

SIMULATED TEMPERATURE EMPIRICAL TEMPERATURE

0%0%

1%

3%

4%

7%

11%

15%

10%

9%

12%

15%

10%

2%

0%

-20 -10 -30 -3 10 20 300

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

No

of o

bs

0% 0%1%

2%

5%

8%

10%

11%12%

10%

11%

12%11%

7%

1%

-37 -28 -197 -11 -2 65 15 240

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

No

of o

bs

EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD

Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Tmax emp Tmax modr=-0.0356

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

Tm

ax(

mo

d)


1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000


18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Tm

ax


1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Tmax эмп. Tmax мод.r=0.2982

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

Tm

ax(

mo

d)

Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999


24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

Tm

ax

Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999


20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Tm

ax

Emp Mod

Moscow 0.05 0.00

St-Petersburg 0.11 0.09

Yekaterinburg 0.10 0.09

Rostov -0.12 -0.09

Tomsk 0.03 0.07

EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD

Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Tmin emp Tmin modr=-0.0475

-30

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

Tm

in(m

od

)


1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Tmin emp Tmin modr=0.3935

-38

-36

-34

-32

-30

-28

-26

-24

-22

-20

-18

-16

Tm

in


1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Tmin эмп. Tmin мод.r=0.1788

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

Tm

in(m

od

)

Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999


-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

Tm

in

Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999


-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

Tm

in

Emp Mod

Moscow 0.02 -0.10

St-Petersburg 0.25 0.03


Rostov -0.10 -0.05

Tomsk 0.05 0.01

EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD

Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Osad emp Osad modr=-0.3552

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

mm


1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Osad emp Osad modr=-0.1243

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

mm


1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Осадки эмп. Осадки мод.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

110

mm

Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Pemp Pmodr=-0.0629

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

mm

Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Pemp Pmodr=0.0567

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

mm

Emp Mod

Moscow -0.65 0.20

St-Petersburg 0.75 -0.52


Rostov 0.44 0.00

Tomsk 0.25 -0.12

ANGLE COEFFICIENTS FOR DISCOVERED TRENDS FOR EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED DATA OF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION

ANNUAL EXTREMES

City Element Emp initial row Emp 1979-1998 Sim 1979-1998

Moscow

Tmin 0.07 0.02 -0.10

Tmax -0.01 0.05 0.00

Precipitation 0.07 -0.65 0.20

St-Petersburg

Tmin 0.00 0.25 0.03

Tmax 0.02 0.11 0.09

Precipitation 0.00 0.75 -0.52

Yekaterinburg

Tmin 0.05 0.20 0.15

Tmax 0.03 0.10 0.09

Precipitation 0.08 0.61 0.60

Rostov

Tmin 0.04 -0.10 -0.05

Tmax 0.03 -0.12 -0.09

Precipitation -0.10 0.44 0.00

Tomsk

Tmin 0.04 0.05 0.01

Tmax 0.00 0.03 0.07

Precipitation 0.00 0.25 -0.12

Summary and conclusions

Climate changes are more significant for extremes of the minimum of the daily temperature (increase 0.04-0.07°C per year) than for extremes of the maximum of the daily temperature (increase 0.02-0.03°C per year). Variability (dispersion) of the values of the minimum of the daily temperature approximately twice as many as variability (dispersion) of the values of the maximum of the daily temperature for the all cities. Frequency of the extremes of the minimum and maximum of the daily temperature for the all seasons as whole for the XX-th-XXI centuries has decreased, but intensity of the extremes of daily precipitation totals has increased. The comparison of the statistical characteristics of the observed extreme values with model data allowed to determine the differences, first of all in characteristics of the model precipitation. The analyses of the received temporal trends showed, that in the whole, the climate of big cities of Russia for the period under consideration becomes more moderate and damp. This conclusion as a whole confirms the results of modeling.

Documents

A A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; [email protected]