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ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

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Page 1: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

1

Page 2: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

0102030405060708090

100

11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14

USD

Bill

ion

US CCI Personal Consumption Expenditures, RHS

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

08 08 08 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14

% Y

oY

ISM Manufacturing Industrial Production, RHS

������������ ������������ ������������ก���� ���ก����� !"#� �$%�&'�(&'ก�%&

ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+����� ,���-���� %����&

2

Jan-

11

Apr-1

1

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-1

2

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-1

3

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-1

4

Jul-1

4

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-

08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

PCE Core PCE

Jan-

08

Jun-

08

Nov-

08

Apr-0

9

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec

-10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov-

13

Apr-1

4

'�&ก����&���!.$&$ %���/�� �0� ก��!"#� ��& ���'�&&������� $&�&1�%� (�2-���ก�ก

Page 3: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

25

30

35

40

45

%Fed hike rates probability

As of 21 July 2014

As of 1 Aug 2014

As of 8 Aug 2014

As of 14 Aug 2014

����������� �����������ก����������

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 up

As of 14 Aug 2014

As of 20 Aug 2014

������ 4 ก���� 57 ������������������������ 15 ��ก����ก����� !"#���ก� �#�$%��!"#���&� 52%

Page 4: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

% Y

oY 3Q/2013

4Q/2013

1Q/2014

2Q/2014

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70Eurozone PMI Germany PMI France PMI

Italy PMI Demarcating Line

Expansion

Contraction

ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+��$ ���3��-�44�5'�%��& ���� �&���-$���$ ����$&�&ก���ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+

����� �ก���$�$ ��&�)�*�ก�+��$ ���3�2-�'�%��& ������ก��2-� ECB �+ก�� �ก��ก�/ 6���)�*�ก�+������ ����&+�ก2-�1��,�����ก��-�$��'��� (�ก��-�$��$��$���� 0.05%)

4-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-

11

Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Ap

r-14

% Y

oY

Loan to Households Loans to Corporations

-4 30

Jan-

12

Apr-1

2

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-1

3

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-1

4

Jul-1

4

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep-

13

Nov-

13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

% Y

oY

CPI

PPI

�� �ก��TLTRO �%�+/�%�$�����6�ก��,�%$����������7������ %�)�*�ก�++��&

���&���!.��$ ���3�$&�&,�����& %����&

Page 5: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

10

12

14

16

18

%

Share of imports of petroleum products from RussiaRussia

33%

Others

21%

Algeria

5%

Libya

6%

Share of EU imports of oil and gas

�� ���!�"�#�!������� ������$%��

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

Germany

Netherlands

Poland

France

Belgium

Italy

Finland

United Kingdom

Spain

Sweden

Greece

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Turkey

Hungary

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Kazachstan

7%Saudi Arabia

8%

Nigeria

9%

Norway

11%

Page 6: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

ก��20�ก��20� Carry Trade Carry Trade ����� +/�-�����0��4��$�&����� +/�-�����0��4��$�&

24681012

% FX performance vs Carry return

6

-14-12-10-8-6-4-202

BZ AU ID SK MA PK IN TH PH NZ CO VN MX TU CH PE SO CZ HU RU

Carry return on 1-year bond (%) FX return (%YTD)

Page 7: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

% Y

oY

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14

% Y

oY

HSBC PMI China's Consumption of Electricity

�����&�-����ก����� $&�&�%&�-����ก��!"#� �2-�1�%������ก�ก ก���$�$ ��&�������$&�&�/� ��&

ก���$�$ ��&�)�*�ก�++-����/$/���&�����+����4ก�����2��2�$��ก����

7

Loans to Households Loans to Corporate

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

% Y

oY

Total Sales of Residential Building China Real Estate Climate (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RM

B B

illio

n

China NPL City Commercial Banks

China NPL Rural Commercial Banks

�/����-���-$�&7�����+-�$&�-,����������� 2%��ก��&ก���$�$ ��&�)�*�ก�+2-�1�%�%$�-�ก

ก�+ก���������&�����2��$8$&�&�� �

Page 8: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

05

101520253035404550

% Y

oY

Japan Consumer Conf idence Index Japan Retail Sales, RHS

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% Y

oY

JP Industrial Production JP Export

���ก����� �&4-�,69�$&�&!"#� �1��1�%� (�2-��ก������������ ������������2$$!"#� �������&+�กก��,����*-ก��������

�)�*�ก�+4-�,69�ก0��&ก��� %����2�&ก��!"#� �-ก���& ��&+�กก��,��������*-ก��������

80

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

JPY

Tri

llio

n

BOJ Monetary Base

-100

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4

-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

No

v-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

No

v-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

% Y

oY

Total cash Earning Schedule Cash Earning

Jan-

10

Apr-1

0

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-1

1

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-1

2

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-1

3

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-1

4

Jul-1

4

�%�+��&��4-�,9�������-�44�5,���-���� 7�����ก��&4-�,69�$&�&����ก��ก�/ 6���)�*�ก�+���/������

Page 9: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

ก��!"#� ��&ก���������&�,:�'���%$�,:��%$1,

ก��!"#� ��&ก��������$&�&�,:�1,$%�&+0�ก�

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

�5/2-��;���ก���&��$&�&�/���/�&��ก���$�$�������

9

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Retail Sales Durable Non-Durable Department Store Sales

Page 10: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

-8.0%-7.4%

-6.1%-4.7%

-3.0% -2.7%-3.4%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

�����&�-�ก���&26�����ก��$&�&%�' '���-�44�5,���-�������/$/���&����

ก����������ก ���������� �����ก���������������� ������������������������

������ ���� �...ก����������ก �����"����#$%�����&'�

55

60

10

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

Construction Area Permitted

Domestic Cement Sales

Imports of Capital Goods

Domestic Commercial Car

Sales

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14

-8.0%

-10%

-8%

Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14

Source : BOT

40

45

50

Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14

BSI BSI-Investment

Page 11: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

ก����(ก��������"��)�������"��*���� ��������+�,�ก(���ก��ก

ก���&26�������++/�,:�,<++$��6�ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+���%�&,��$,=

40%

60%

80%

100%

11Source: FPO, Prachachart

0%

20%

40%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2014 Total Budget Disbursement Rate

2014 Investment Budget

2013 Investment Budget

2013 Total Budget Disbursement Rate

Page 12: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

ก��!"#� ��&ก���%&ก$&�&1�%�%$�-�ก

ASEAN 25.1%

EU10.4%

China10.9%

Japan10.1%

USA10.7%

Hong Kong4.8%

Middle East5.2%

Others22.8%

Exports by CountryExports by Product : July 2014

Export Growth by Product

%YoY

Jun-14 Jul-14 YTD

Rice 35.1% 3.2% 11.0%

Rubber -20.9% -23.4% -19.6%

Agro-manufacturing Products -3.1% 3.7% -5.1%

Apparels and Textile Materials 2.5% 1.0% 0.0%

1.9% -1.5% -0.2%

12Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), BOP Basis = Balance of Payment Basis

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

ASEAN EU China Japan USA

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14

Exports performance by countriesElectronics 1.9% -1.5% -0.2%

Electrical Appliances -0.8% -0.1% 3.9%

Metal & Steel -2.0% -4.5% -19.0%

Automotive 2.6% 9.3% 2.0%

Machinery & Equipment 7.3% 10.5% 9.5%

Jewellery 13.5% -0.5% 4.3%

Chemicals 0.4% -9.1% -7.5%

Petro-chemical Products 9.1% 10.0% 8.5%

Petroleum products 9.6% -7.9% -8.1%

Other Manufacturing products 5.2% 6.8% 7.3%

Exports, f.o.b. (BOP basis) 3.8% -0.5% -0.2%

Page 13: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

BoT ���ก��58 GDP 2014 ���& ' % 2015 ,����������� (unit : %YoY or otherwise indicated)

Forecast for the year 20132013 20142014 20152015

as ofActuaActua

llJunJun��1414 MarMar��1414

JunJun’’1414

MarMar��1414

GDP 2.9 1.5 ���� 2.7 5.5 ���� 4.8

Core inflation 1.0 1.7 ���� 1.5 1.4 ���� 1.3

Headline inflation 2.2 2.6 ���� 2.5 2.5 ���� 2.310

15

20

%YoY

13

Domestic demand 0.2 0.1 ���� 0.6 6.1 ���� 5.3

- Private consumption 0.2 0.2 ���� 0.3 4.7 ���� 4.6

- Private investment -2.8 -2.6 ���� -0.5 11.2 ���� 10.2

- Public consumption 4.9 3.5 ���� 2.9 2.7 ���� 2.4

- Public investment 1.3 1.1 ���� 1.7 9.7 ���� 2.7

Current account ($ bn) -2.8 11.7���� 0.7 1.1 ���� -0.5

- Export of goods -0.2 2.5 ���� 4.5 7.6 ���� 6.5

- Imports of goods -0.4 -1.4 ���� 3.0 9.9 ���� 7.5

- Trade balance ($ bn) n.a. 20.9���� 9.8 9.8 ���� 8.2

-10

-5

0

5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thailand's GDP (%YoY) March projection June projection

Page 14: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

���&�ก�'(�����(��)������)*+,!�

3.40

6.35

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0%

14

-0.50

0.40

2.20

3.40

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E

Page 15: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

Momentum )���� Emerging Market %���:;��(��

-2.10

4.002.95

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E

US

7.40

7.50

7.40

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E

China

15

0.90

0.70

0.90

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E

Eurozone

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E

-0.50

0.40

2.20

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E

Thailand

Page 16: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

�) �������������ก� TIP ���ก?��!���!�'

5.60

6.40 6.406.70

4.07 4.33 4.454.10

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

PhilippinesGDP CPI

5.22 5.125.45 5.49

7.767.09

4.90 5.00

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E

IndonesiaGDP CPI

16-0.50

0.40

2.20

3.90

2.002.47

2.70 2.80

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E

ThailandGDP CPI

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E

Page 17: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

Market expects a hike from BoT by QMarket expects a hike from BoT by Q33//1515

17

Page 18: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

���ก?������ PER �!�������������"�

12

13

14

15 Fwd P/E

LT avg. Fwd PER =12.0 Current Fwd PER = 14.4

18

Page 18

8

9

10

11

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Page 19: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

กA�(��B 2558 ����))������������

114.96

16.6%

16.1%16.3% 16.2%

16.0%

17.0%

115.0

116.0

EPS GrowthEPS

19

114.96

114.38

113.79

114.63 114.5215.5%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

112.0

113.0

114.0

-4W -3W -2W -1W 5-Sep

EPS EPS Growth

Page 20: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

2014 consensus still falling - down 2% in August

Consensus EPS and EPS Growth for SET Index

120.00

140.00

160.00SET Index EPS (Bt/sh)

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%SET Index EPS Growth (%)

20

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014 2015 2016

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-142010 2011 2012

2013 2014 2015

Source: Bloomberg, KS Research, September 2014

Page 21: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

PER (����A�ก���; ��!���!

14.816.6

19.920

25

PER - 12 Month forward

21

14.8

0

5

10

15

Thailand Indonesia Philippines

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1,653.10

1,563.85

1,460

1,560

1,660

Valuation ก?���H���"�

22

1,360

1,460

23

-May

30

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6-J

un

13

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n

20

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27

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n

4-J

ul

11

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l

18

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l

25

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l

1-A

ug

8-A

ug

15

-Au

g

22

-Au

g

29

-Au

g

5-S

ep

SET Index target Upper bound (+1SD)

Page 23: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

ก������������� SET

23

�������������� !�"��#�$ %��&'��(����)*"�+,�%-.�ก�"�/�(01"�/2+$-� 10 ������� 3$- 1547 4%"�(��+,�5�ก+�&*�/�607�+�3�03$ 8 �955,&�0 /�(01"�/2+$-�/�$��ก�0/�6040�:0(*7�7;<0 *$40�%(�0/& <!�%(03$- 1595 �(�="�07;<0)�)�(5����&7;<0)��;� 1658

Page 24: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

ก��������0 SET

24

34��5�6��&�!�!"#�74�58��7���ก��� 1575 (Ema.10 ���) @��74��7��8��A���� 1610 @7�C��5��#�ก%���DD�E!��@45���8�����6F���5 SET ก� MACD �"5�������6����ก����ก����� �5����� �%��E1565 (Ema.25 ���) F��� 1518 (Ema.75 ���)

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25ก��������� ����� ������������������ก

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• ���������������� �����

• �������� !ก�"��ก ���#$��#�%����&�'(���)"

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• "�-��������ก��������� ������./-���/"-���ก����-'��

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27

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������������� ���#� ��������#$��#�% "��'*���.���'(��ก����ก�� )����� 0 ก�����)�������� ���#��-'�� ��""����)+���-��)"*�-���- +������-��ก���'(�+������-�

�������-�*���.��"�กก�����)������������� ���#�)��+���� 0 2545 @ 31 ก.%. 572546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 31 ก.ค. 57

หุนไทย น้ํามัน น้ํามัน ทองคํา น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย น้ํามัน หุนไทย ทองคํา หุนไทย หุนโลก หุนไทย

116.60% 33.61% 40.48% 23.15% 57.25% 18.82% 103.33% 40.60% 11.65% 35.76% 20.27% 22.07

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283$-*� : KAsset , Morningstar 28

* 8��8�4�����E��&���7� @��7���T

116.60% 33.61% 40.48% 23.15% 57.25% 18.82% 103.33% 40.60% 11.65% 35.76% 20.27% 22.07หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนไทย ทองคํา น้ํามัน หุนโลก น้ํามัน ทองคํา32.86% 13.32% 18.04% 18.78% 32.01% 3.95% 63.25% 27.74% 8.15% 13.43% 6.91% 4.92%

ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนโลก พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก หุนโลก น้ํามัน พันธบัตร

ไทย ทองคํา พันธบัตรไทย หุนโลก

18.95% 5.43% 8.80% 5.46% 26.22% 2.63% 32.10% 12.10% 5.60% 8.26% 2.14% 4.57%

เงินฝาก พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก เงินฝาก พันธบัตร

ไทย เงินฝาก พันธบัตรไทย

1.30% 2.86% 6.83% 3.13% 10.03% -43.98% 25.55% 10.42% 2.00% 3.13 2.00% 3.88%

น้ํามัน เงินฝาก เงินฝาก น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก พันธบัตร

ไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก% หุนไทย น้ํามัน

-0.61% 1.00% 1.22% 0.02% 7.63% -47.56% 0.82% 5.76% -0.72% 2.50% -6.70% 3.25%พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย พันธบัตร

ไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก น้ํามัน Thai Got Bond เงินฝาก หุนโลก น้ํามัน ทองคํา เงินฝาก

-2.47% -13.48% -0.24% -4.75% 2.55% -59.34% -4.18% 1.03% -9.41% -7.08% -27.81% 1.00%

Page 29: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

7ก��"�-���������8 "�9���)+�*���.��"�กก�������(������ ����'%���*�*��'(�(��ก���ก�����)�������� ���#�)- ���#�+:(���'��������-'�� (�����!���������: "�-���������) 6 ������������&ก�)

2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 31 ก.ค. 57

หุนไทย น้ํามัน น้ํามัน ทองคํา น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย น้ํามัน หุนไทย ทองคํา หุนไทย หุนโลก หุนไทย

116.60% 33.61% 40.48% 23.15% 57.25% 18.82% 103.33% 40.60% 11.65% 26.67% 20.27% 22.07%

หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนไทย ทองคํา น้ํามัน ทองคํา น้ํามัน จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

32.86% 13.32% 18.04% 18.78% 32.01% 3.95% 63.25% 27.74% 8.15% 13.12% 6.91% 6.61%*

ก��"�-��������� 9����-%���*�*�

29

32.86% 13.32% 18.04% 18.78% 32.01% 3.95% 63.25% 27.74% 8.15% 13.12% 6.91% 6.61%จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

หุนไทย เงินฝาก จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

พันธบัตรไทย หุนโลก พันธบัตร

ไทย ทองคํา

27.77% 7.12% 12.52% 7.63% 26.22% 2.63% 36.81% 16.28% 5.60% 10.71% 2.14% 4.92%

ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนโลก พันธบัตรไทย

จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

หุนโลก น้ํามัน จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

จัดสรรเงินลงทุน

เงินฝาก หุนโลก

18.95% 5.43% 8.80% 5.46% 22.62% -20.91% 32.10% 12.10% 2.88% 9.33% 2.00% 4.57%

เงินฝาก พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก เงินฝาก เงินฝาก จัดสรรเงิน

ลงทุนพันธบัตรไทย

1.30% 2.86% 6.83% 3.13% 10.03% -43.98% 25.55% 10.42% 2.00% 2.00% -0.53% 3.88%

น้ํามัน เงินฝาก เงินฝาก น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก พันธบัตร

ไทย หุนไทย พันธบัตรไทย

หุนไทย น้ํามัน

-0.61% 1.00% 1.22% 0.02% 7.63% -47.56% 0.82% 5.76% -0.72% 1.76% -6.70% 3.25%พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย พันธบัตร

ไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก น้ํามัน Thai Got Bond เงินฝาก หุนโลก น้ํามัน ทองคํา เงินฝาก

-2.47% -13.48% -0.24% -4.75% 2.55% -59.34% -4.18% 1.03% -9.41% -6.73% -27.81% 1.00%

* * * * ** *

** *

*

Page 30: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15

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30

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Theme ก������'(���)") 0 2014 - 2015

32

Theme ก������'(���)") 0 2014 - 2015

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U �+��!�����ก�: ��� !ก�"ABC�������������(�� ����ก�� QE ก�����"���>�-�� ���+��������

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�+��!�����ก�

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• GDP Q1 2014 �������ก�����ก� ������������ก�� ��������������������ก����� Q2/14

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�+��!�����ก�

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• �����ก��������� ��������������� �� ���� !�ก�������"#$ Fed ��%���&��'��(�)

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37

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��� @ *�ก���."�ก����N'� ����$�%�

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หุนเอเชียK-ASIA

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วิกฤตดอทคอม(1 ม.ค. 43

-31 ธ.ค. 45)

ตลาดฟนตัว(1 ม.ค. 46 -31 ธ.ค. 50)

วิกฤตหนี้ ทั่วโลก(1 ม.ค. 51-31 ธ.ค. 52)

ภาวะผอนคลายทางการเงิน

(1 ม.ค. 53-30 มิ.ย. 57)

รวม 14 ป(1 ม.ค. 43

- 30 มิ.ย. 57)

BGF Global Allocation -2.17 111.1 -5.75 31.68 156.33

เกณฑมาตรฐาน -16.88 79.67 -6.87 48.65 106.74

หุนทั่วโลก -39.56 118.86 -22.87 64.54 60.72

พันธบัตรทั่วโลก 20.19 39.03 13.71 14.99 118.55

-90

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