A-1

Smallpox Outbreak in the US

A-2

Smallpox Scenario

May 2003, Greyhound Bus Terminal

07:30

• A security guard notices a group of three men. One who appears drunk and staggering and is being helped by two others toward a bench in the corner of the departure hall.

• When the guard approaches the three, the two assisting push the “drunk” into the arms of the startled guard who catches him to prevent a fall, and the others flee on foot.

• The guard then notices that the “drunk” is apparently very ill with a face covered with puss and sores. A small group of curiosity seekers surround the scene.

A-3

Smallpox Scenario

07:38• Police and paramedics arrive at the bus station at the

scene. The police find on the ill man a passport from the Gulf state of Qatar, a torn ticket stub from a Pacers play-off game last night and a room key from a central Ramada Inn Hotel.

• The paramedics initiate a series of measures to save the man who is either unwilling or unable to speak, and rush him to the Hospital.

07:50• In the emergency room, a doctor who has recently

completed an emergency refresher course on smallpox and was vaccinated recently makes a preliminary diagnosis of smallpox. Confirmation, however, will take some time.

A-4

Smallpox Scenario

08:20

• A police search of the Ramada Inn room, where the victim had apparently stayed, uncovers information that three men from Qatar had stayed in the room last night. A torn slip of paper with two telephone numbers in a trash can and a torn newspaper clip are the only useable information uncovered.

• The numbers are traceable to a downtown Comfort Inn and a Super Eight motel. The newspaper clip is of a downtown cultural street fair and parade to be held today beginning at 10:00.

A-5

Smallpox Scenario

08:25

• The head of emergency services at the Hospital reports that the patient has died, adding that only 1/3 of the hospital staff are vaccinated for Smallpox. He says he is taking unspecified emergency measures.

08:40

• Breaking news on the all-news radio station reports “a suspected terrorist attack using Smallpox has been thwarted” in a city center hospital, concluding that there is no word yet as to whether citizens “should enter or leave the city.”

A-6

Smallpox Scenario

08:45• Airport officials reports the detention of one individual

attempting to purchase a ticket to Columbus, Ohio. He appears very ill and produced a Qatar passport for identification.

08:47• Rush hour traffic is becoming chaotic as numerous

cars are crossing median strips to flee the city center.08:50• All-news radio reports that a receptionist in the office

of the Superintendent of schools told them that the Superintendent is considering closing all schools and parents should be prepared to pick up their children “soon.”

A-7

Smallpox Scenario

08:55• Homeland Security officials advised that they had

received vague unconfirmed reports of a suicide attack by 11 individuals against a U.S. target not further specified. The information was three days old.

09:10• Police checks at the Comfort Inn and Super Eight

Motel confirms that four men of middle east or Asian appearance were staying at each hotel last night, but have already checked out and left nothing behind.

• One night clerk does remember being asked early this morning about the location of the street fair. The man looked “funny” and quite ill.

A-8

Smallpox Scenario

09:15

• City wide traffic is in a chaotic state, according to the Transportation Department.

09:20

• The head of the airport advises he is considering closing the facility within the next ten minutes.

09:25

• The Superintendent of schools issues a statement that the schools will stay open and parents should wait for further word.

A-9

Smallpox Scenario

09:35• Preliminary lab tests indicate the dead victim died of

Smallpox. • The first floats in a scheduled parade have

assembled, and the parade organizers have requested advice from the police as to whether they should proceed.

09:40• Airport officials report the detainee at the airport had a

ticket stub from the past night’s Pacer’s game, a route plan for today’s parade and a map sketch of the city festival.

A-10

Smallpox Scenario09:45• State police report continued traffic confusion and the

beginning of a massive flow of people attempting to flee the city.

09:50• City Health officials state that it will take three days to

be fully prepared for this potential crisis, but recommend a vaccination program immediately. The question at hand is whether it should be voluntary or mandatory.

09:55• There are straggled groups along the parade route of

as many at 100 in a group. They apparently are unaware or unconcerned about circulating rumors of a Smallpox breakout.