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9. PATTERNS, CAUSES, AND

SIGNIFICANCE OF U.S.

NEIGHBORHOODS SEGREGATED

BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE AND

STAGE IN LIFE

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How do the household characteristics and stage in life of individuals

help explain

their residential location decisions?

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SIMPLE DEFINITIONS

• A housing unit is a dwelling, apartment unit, or single room occupied as separate living quarters.

• Dwelling tenure refers to whether households are owners or renters

• A household is virtually synonymous with an occupied housing unit. Describes all persons who occupy the same housing unit regardless of their relationship.

Excluded are persons living together in what U.S. Census refers to as group quarters, such as dormitories, military barracks, prisons, and nursing homes.

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TYPES OF HOUSEHOLDS

• A family household has at least two members related by birth, marriage, or adoption, one of whom is related to the householder.

Married with children

Married without children (under age 18)

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Other Types of Families

Other families with children:• Mostly single-parent family households who are female.

Divorced and separated parents with children

Never-married mothers having children at a later age

• Unmarried partners with children

Other families without children• Single adults with parent living in their home

• Single parents with children/persons age 18 and older living in their home

• Adult relatives (such as brothers and sisters)

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Nonfamilies

Nonfamilies: • Women or men living alone

• Non-relatives living together, including unmarried partners without children.

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Households by Type, 2012

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THE IDENTIFICATION OF POPULATION COHORTS CAN HELP PREDICT CHANGING HOUSEHOLD

PATTERNS AND MIGRATION DECISIONS

Birth Cohort• Refers to a population that was born in a particular period.

E.g. baby boom generation or baby boom cohort born between 1946 and 1964.

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The Aging of a Cohort

• Aging of a cohort refers to all of its members becoming older.All persons born 1945 will be 55 in 2000 and 60 in 2005.

• If we know the expected death rate of cohort's members, we can calculate the percentage of its members who will die between birth and, for example, age 45.A good estimate of the size of the cohort in future periods.Only other major unknown is the additions to the

population due to international migration.

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Aging the Baby Boom Cohort: 1946 to 1964

Year Age Category

1964 0 to 18

1970 6 to 24

1980 16 to 34

1990 26 to 44

2000 36 to 54

2010 46 to 64

2020 56 to 74

2030 66 to 84

2040 76 to 94

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Aging the Millennial/Generation Y/ Baby Boomlet/Echo Boom Generation: 1977 to 1995

Year Age Category

1995 0 to 18

2000 5 to 23

2010 15 to 33

2020 25 to 43

2030 35 to 53

2040 45 to 63

In the year 2014, the baby boomlet generation members will be age 19 to 37.

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Crude birth rate: The number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year:

 Number of births________________ X 1,000

Total population

Equals 12.5 in the U.S. in 2013

Recession depressed birth rate

Ingredients of Cohort Structure

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General fertility rate: The number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in a given year:

 Number of births________________ X 1,000

Number of women Aged 15-44

The 2013 general fertility rate was the lowest ever reported for the United States at 62.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44.

Fertility rates are 9% below rate of 69.3 in 2007Particularly plummeting fertility of young womenNever before have young women had so few children

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Total Fertility Rate (TFR): average number of births that a hypothetical group of 1,000 women would have over their lifetimesbased on current age-specific birth rates

Total Fertility Rate

In 2013, 1,869.5 births per 1,000 women--lowest rate since 1986

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CURRENT BIRTH COHORTS: POPULATIONS DISTINGUISHED BY TIME PERIOD OF BIRTHS

COHORTTIME

PERIODAge in 2000

Age in 2010

Age in 2020

Age in 2030

Age in 2040

% United States

population 2010

GI Generation < 1930 71+ 81+ 91+      

Depression 1930-1939 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100   13

War Babies 1940-1945 55-70 65-70 75-80 85-90 95-100  

Baby Boomers 1946-1964 36-54 46-64 56-74 66-84 76-94 26

Generation X 1965-1976 24-35 34-45 44-55 54-65 64-75 14

Baby Boomlet 1977-1995 5-23 15-33 25-43 35-53 45-63 28Echo Bust/Plurals 1996- 0-4 0-14 0-24 0-34 0-44 20

              100

From: American Community Survey, 2009

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What Caused the Baby Boom—1946-1964

• Initial upturn resulted from a peak in marriages shortly followed by spike in number of first births, and later 2nd, 3rd, & 4th births throughout the 1940s and 1950s.

• Older woman who put off having births during depression began to have children when U.S. economy improved in 1940s.

• After war, people generally felt more wealthy—leading to births especially among white urban middle class. Felt they could afford to have more children than their parents.

• Higher birth rates sustained by prospects of steady employment and higher wages.

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What Caused the Baby Bust?—Gen X, 1965-1976

• Baby boom cohort started to reach adulthood in the 1970s, but because of large size, young adults competing for jobs, and resulting in lower earnings.

• Did not envision a world in which they would be significantly better off than their parents.

• Birth control and legalization of abortion in 1960s and 1970s

• Women delayed marriage and motherhood in favor of advanced degrees and labor force participation

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Introducing the Age Pyramid

• Age-sex pyramids are bar graphs that display the percentage or actual amount of a population broken down by gender and age.

• The five-year age increments on the y-axis allow the pyramid to vividly reflect long term trends in the birth and death rates but also reflect shorter term baby-booms, wars, and epidemics.

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Baby Boomers: The first wave

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Baby Boomers As College Students and Young Adults

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Baby Boomers As Most Productive Labor Force

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Baby Boomers As Our Senior Population

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Baby Boomers As Our Most Frail Older Population

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RESIDENTIAL RELOCATION OR MOBILITY BEHAVIORS LINKED WITH HOUSEHOLD AND

STAGE IN LIFE PATTERNS

• Various reasons to study residential relocation patterns:Influence population growth and decline of metro areas.Influence demand for housing—in certain areas Moves also influence arrangement of residential land uses

at both the origin and the destination.Residential mobility not only changes population size, but

also composition of receiving and sending neighborhoods.Example: If in-migrants are predominantly poorer or

of a different ethnic or racial group than out-migrants.

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Residential Relocation can also be Studied as a Coping Process

• Residential mobility can also be interpreted as a coping or adjustment process whereby households make their housing needs congruent with their personalities, life-styles, health status, and abilities.

That is, housing needs and wants change as individual passes from one stage in life to another, from one income level to another, or as life-styles, or competence change.

• Longitudinal or Life Span PerspectiveIn 2007, average U.S. individual is expected to move

11.7 different years in his or her lifeAt age 18, a person can expect to move another 9.1

times; at age 45, another 2.7 moves.

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How U.S. Census Measures Residential Mobility?

• The U.S. Census measures mobility in a cross-sectional or point-in-time way—not longitudinally.

• Did person live at same address one year (five years) ago?• If no, a mover; if yes, a nonmover.• If a mover, than ask where moved from?

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Basic Residential Mobility Patterns

• Between 2009 and 2010, 37.5 million U.S. residents moved

• That’s 12.5% of the population..

• Most moves are short-distance or local

69% within same county

17% different county, but same state

12% different state (6% a different region)

2% from outside the U.S.

• In 2008, mobility rate was 11.9%--the lowest rate since 1948 when U.S. census began tracking data.

• Do you know why the rate went down?

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Who Moves the Most? (2009-2010)

• Young adults move more frequently than older adults.

• 27% of 20 to 24 year olds moved, but only 5% of those aged 65 to 69.

• Young adults must accommodate rapid life changes.

• Young adults have little reason not to move:Fewer worries about uprooting children from school and

moving away from friendsMoving costs are lessWeak psychological attachment to dwelling/ neighborhood.

• College educated young adults most likely to move, especially across state lines

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Dwelling Tenure Status is Linked with Residential Mobility Patterns, 2009-2010

• 29% of renters moved, but 5% of owners.• Usually involves an upward adjustment in housing

consumption—i.e., to more expensive, larger accommodations.

• Progression is usually from being a renter to an owner; less so in old age.

• Downgrading moves are exception (e.g., divorce, children leaving parent's home).

• In 2011, just under 66% of U.S. households own dwellings.• Residential stability of neighborhoods strongly linked with

homeownership patterns.

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HOUSEHOLD LIFE CYCLE STAGES INFLUENCE ON RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY PATTERNS

• Combination of multiple indicators:Chronological ageMarital statusPresence and number of childrenOccupational/Income statusLife style preferences (family, single/leisure living, work-

motivated, senior communities)

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Classic/Idealistic Household Life Cycle Stages

• Single "first-timers"—setting up first independent households; mostly renters.

• Advancing singles—older, generally higher incomes, better jobs, mostly renters, but also smaller condos and smaller houses.

• Young married couples, no children—DINCS (dual income consumers, often both spouses working). Briefly, in rental apartments and then in condominiums or smaller lower-maintenance townhouses, villas, or patio homes.

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Selling the Singles Scene: Condo builders are targeting 20- and 30-something professionals with provocative ads that pitch sex and a hot social life

plus amenities and affordability.

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RENTAL APARTMENT PREFERENCES

• Generation Y renters want amenities such as cyber cafes, Wi-Fi technology at lounging and pool areas, and upgraded amenities such as stainless steel appliances

• Apartment renters also want swimming pool, recreation/club room, exercise facilities, covered parking, and location close to work and entertainment

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Important Trend Explaining Residential Marketing

• Increase in women’s educational attainment—thus greater motivation to target this group as consumers

• Women (& men) marrying later in life—revealing a “period” effect

• Moreover college educated women delay marriage more

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Location Biases of Young Adults: Age 25-34• Study by CEOs for Cities (based on 2005-2009 data)

• Emphasizes preferences for metropolitan areas, especially the most populated

• Emphasizes preferences for close-in neighborhoodsWithin 3 miles of city center-CBD

• Young adults with a four-year degree were 94% more likely to live in close-in neighborhoods than their counterparts with less education

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PERSONAL CONFESSIONS

• What will be your three most important considerations when

choosing where (the metro/town/county and state) you will live

after you graduate from the University of Florida?

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Survey Results from CEOs for Cities

• Two-thirds of college-educated 25 to 34 year-olds choose place before job.

• Women place greater emphasis on the location decision than do men.

• Basic quality of life issues (clean and attractive, can live the life I want to lead, safe streets and neighborhoods, can afford to buy a home, lots of parks and green space) ranked highest among attributes that young people looked for in a city.

• A place that feels welcoming, offers professional opportunities, has reasonable commute times, access to excellent schools, is a great place to raise children, is a place people are proud to say they live in were among attributes young people looked for in a city.

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Survey Results from CEOs for Cities (con’t)

• Prefer places where they can connect with others and have meaningful social interactions; that are interesting and diverse; and are environmentally responsible

• Young adults have a strong inclination to live downtown or close to downtown

• Knowledge of city attributes is limited. When asked where they would like to live, respondents were quick to answer. But when asked why, their reasons were vague.

• Young adults rely most heavily on personal stories from friends and family to form their perceptions about a place. They also use the Internet and personal visits to shape their opinions.

• HOW WILL YOU DECIDE?

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Classic/Idealistic Household Life Cycle Stages (continued)

• Expanding family—older, child-bearing, increasing household size, higher incomes. Move to increasingly larger detached single-family dwellings.

• Established family or full nesters—Middle aged with rising affluence "trade up" to more prestige housing. Highest occupational status.

• Empty nesthood—Last grown child leaves home—but smaller family often remains in same home. Second homes may be purchased

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Classic/Idealistic Household Life Cycle Stages (continued)

• Active retired—sometimes move to smaller, easier to maintain-houses, condominiums or retirement-oriented subdivisions or communities; but majority stay put.

• Widows or widowers—same as above, or seek out a supportive household arrangement or group home.

• Physical frailty—more likely to move to residential care facility offering personal assistance and perhaps skilled nursing care.

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Alternative household situations

• Stages in life often do not progress in clear linear pattern; individuals adapt differently and take alternative marital status, child-rearing, and life-style pathways.

Permanent singles and resingled (divorced or separated persons)

Mingles (unrelated adults)

Never-nesters (childless married couples)

Single-parent families

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Certain Periods in History Play Havoc with Traditional Stage in Life Adjustments

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Past Residential Patterns

• Most of post-World War II era:A suburban residence was generally associated with

child raising. Share of "married with children" central city households shrinked.

Conversely, cities associated with "coming-of-age" singles, childless married couples, disadvantaged single-parent families, and elderly homeowners.

These residential patterns still persist, but not to same degree

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Current City-Suburban Residential Patterns

• Rather, today's suburbs have more diverse population mix

• Majority of all household types now occupy suburban localesMarried couples with childMarried couples, no childOther familyOther nonfamilyPersons living alone

• Majority of all age groups now occupy suburbs

• But, certain groups more likely occupy central/principal citiesOther familySingle personOther nonfamily

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Key Household Changes in the Coming Decade

• The aging of the baby boom population

• In turn, the aging of American suburbs

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Projected Numerical Size of Older Population (in millions)

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Age65-74

Age75-84

Age85+

Age65+

21.5

13.0

5.8

40.2

32.3

15.9

6.6

54.8

38.8

24.6

8.7

72.1

36.9

30.1

14.2

81.2

2010 2020 2030 2040

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Projected Percentage Growth of Older Population

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Age65-74

Age75-84

Age85+

Age65+

51.0

26.2 21.8

39.0

17.7

53.1

33.7 30.0

- 8.1

19.4

57.8

9.5

Percentage Growth of Older Population

2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

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Aging of the Baby Boom Population

• Most age 65 and older persons long occupants of dwellings• Over 80% of elder-headed households are homeowners

Thus, commentary on reticence of seniors to sell their dwellings

Over 44% have lived at the same address for over 30 yearsEven when do move, they relocate in relatively nearby

destinations—usually the same or adjacent county Consequently, they age in placeResidential moving behaviors of older renters can be very

different. Since significant share already have moved recently—only 9% of these households have lived 30 plus years in their buildings.

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THE SUBURBAN AGE BOOM

• Most older Americans now live in the metropolitan or urban areas of the United StatesOnly about 23% found in rural AmericaLike Americans generally, today's seniors are largely

suburbanitesAfter World War II, large numbers of younger families

opted to marry/raise their children in suburbs.When advancing careers, higher incomes, and larger

families spurred them to move again, it was not back to city locations, but rather to farther out suburbs

Here they remained throughout their twilight years.

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THE SUBURBAN AGE BOOM (con’t)• Aging in place patterns of aging Americans steadily changed the

demographics of our suburbsEspecially oldest or “first tier” inner suburbs built before World

War II and during rapid suburban growth of 1950s & early 1960sConsequently, two generations of age 65 and older adults now

occupy our suburban settlements the G.I. generation, born 1924 or earlier, who are now over 85

(also called the Greatest Generation)Silent Generation (sometimes referred to as the Great

Depression and the War Baby generations), born between 1925 and 1945, who are now in their mid-60s to mid-80s

Consequently, almost two-thirds of seniors in metropolitan areas now live in the suburbs, rather than in city locales

Almost half of suburban old (46%) is now age 75 or olderEspecially likely to be homeowners (about 85%).

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Residential Concentrations of Old

• The residential inertia of large numbers of old produced countless quasi-retirement enclaves of seniors in buildings, neighborhoods, and communities across suburbia

• Unlike clusters of seniors found in planned housing developments (e.g., active adult communities) these residential concentrations have demographic origins

• Result of the immobility of the old, the selective departures of the young, and the attraction of these places to newer populations of old

• Experts have labeled these residential settlements as naturally occurring retirement communities or NORCS.

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The Future Aging Tsunami

• Current residential patterns only leading edge of suburban age wave

• More dramatic population changes are yet to come• Since 2011, our suburbs have become the home of yet another

generation of older adults—the oldest baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) began celebrating their 65th birthdays

• Will constitute the first truly suburban generation of older AmericansDid not arrive from our city centers or rural areas; rather most

have lived their whole lives in the suburbsChildren and grandchildren of their suburban-residing G.I. and

Silent Generation parentsMost of these aging baby boomers will never leave suburbia

and will grow old hereOnly a small share of these suburban dwellers will eventually

relocate to central cities and to rural counties