24
9.9 SWO-ATL – ATLANTIC SWORDFISH The status of the North and South Atlantic swordfish stocks was assessed in 2017, by means of applying statistical modelling to the available data up to 2015. Complete information on the data availability and assessment can be found in the Report of the 2017 ICCAT Atlantic swordfish data preparatory meeting (Anon. 2017e) and the Report the 2017 ICCAT Atlantic swordfish stock assessment session (Anon. 2017f). Other information relevant to Atlantic swordfish is presented in the Report of the Sub-committee on Statistics, included as Appendix 12 to this SCRS Report, and recommendations pertinent to Atlantic swordfish are presented in Item 18. SWO-ATL-1. Biology Swordfish (Xiphias gladius) are members of the family Xiphiidae and are in the suborder Scombroidei. They can reach a maximum weight in excess of 500 kg. They are distributed widely in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. In the ICCAT Convention area, the management units of swordfish for assessment purposes are a separate Mediterranean group, and North and South Atlantic groups separated at 5°N. New genetic information was reviewed that indicated that the existing stock boundaries should be refined for the Atlantic and Mediterranean stocks. While recognizing the importance of the work, the Committee noted that the stock boundaries are approximations, and the possible impacts of seasonal changes and oceanographic processes in resource distribution need to be fully understood. Swordfish feed on a wide variety of prey including groundfish, pelagic fish, deep-water fish, and invertebrates. They are believed to feed throughout the water column, and from electronic tagging studies, undertake extensive diel vertical migrations. Swordfish mostly spawn in the western warm tropical and subtropical waters throughout the year, although seasonality has been reported in some of these areas. They are found in the colder temperate waters during summer and fall months. Young swordfish grow very rapidly, reaching about 140 cm LJFL (lower-jaw fork length) by age three, but grow slowly thereafter. Females grow faster than males and reach a larger maximum size. Tagging studies have shown that some swordfish can live up to 15 years. Swordfish are difficult to age, but about 50% of females were considered to be mature by age five, at a length of about 180 cm. However, the most recent information indicates a smaller length and age at maturity. The analysis of the horizontal movements evidences seasonal patterns, with fish generally moving south by winter and returning to the temperate foraging grounds in spring. Broader areas of mixing between some eastern and western areas were also suggested. These new results obtained by pop-up satellite tags also fully confirm the previous knowledge that was available from fishery data: deep longline settings catch swordfish during the day-time as a by-catch, while shallow setting longliners target swordfish at night closer to the surface. SWO-ATL-2. Fishery indicators Due to the broad geographical distribution of Atlantic swordfish (SWO-ATL-Figure 1) in coastal and off- shore areas (mostly ranging from 50ºN to 45ºS), this species is available to a large number of fishing countries. SWO-ATL-Figure 2 shows total estimated catches for North and South Atlantic swordfish. Directed longline fisheries from Canada, EU-Spain, and the United States have operated since the late 1950s or early 1960s, and harpoon fisheries have existed at least since the late 1800s. Other directed swordfish fisheries include fleets from Brazil, Morocco, Namibia, EU-Portugal, South Africa, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The primary by-catch or opportunistic fisheries that take swordfish are tuna fleets from Chinese Taipei, Japan, Korea and EU-France. The tuna longline fishery started in 1956 and has operated throughout the Atlantic since then, with substantial catches of swordfish that are produced as a by-catch of tuna fisheries. The largest proportion of the Atlantic catches is made using surface-drifting longline. However, many additional gears are used, including traditional gillnets off the coast of western Africa. Trends by area (NE vs. NW Atlantic) in the CPUE indexes were consistent with the seasonal movement patterns observed in the electronic tagging data, as well as in the catches and sex-ratio distributions. Relationships observed for the eastern Atlantic were opposite to those in the western Atlantic. This pattern was correlated with the decadal cycling of the AMO as well as that of the North Atlantic Oscillation 2019 SCRS REPORT 164

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Page 1: 9.9 SWO-ATL ATLANTIC SWORDFISH - …9.9 SWO-ATL – ATLANTIC SWORDFISH The status of the North and South Atlantic swordfish stocks was assessed in 2017, by means of applying statistical

9.9 SWO-ATL – ATLANTIC SWORDFISH The status of the North and South Atlantic swordfish stocks was assessed in 2017, by means of applying statistical modelling to the available data up to 2015. Complete information on the data availability and assessment can be found in the Report of the 2017 ICCAT Atlantic swordfish data preparatory meeting (Anon. 2017e) and the Report the 2017 ICCAT Atlantic swordfish stock assessment session (Anon. 2017f). Other information relevant to Atlantic swordfish is presented in the Report of the Sub-committee on Statistics, included as Appendix 12 to this SCRS Report, and recommendations pertinent to Atlantic swordfish are presented in Item 18. SWO-ATL-1. Biology Swordfish (Xiphias gladius) are members of the family Xiphiidae and are in the suborder Scombroidei. They can reach a maximum weight in excess of 500 kg. They are distributed widely in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. In the ICCAT Convention area, the management units of swordfish for assessment purposes are a separate Mediterranean group, and North and South Atlantic groups separated at 5°N. New genetic information was reviewed that indicated that the existing stock boundaries should be refined for the Atlantic and Mediterranean stocks. While recognizing the importance of the work, the Committee noted that the stock boundaries are approximations, and the possible impacts of seasonal changes and oceanographic processes in resource distribution need to be fully understood. Swordfish feed on a wide variety of prey including groundfish, pelagic fish, deep-water fish, and invertebrates. They are believed to feed throughout the water column, and from electronic tagging studies, undertake extensive diel vertical migrations. Swordfish mostly spawn in the western warm tropical and subtropical waters throughout the year, although seasonality has been reported in some of these areas. They are found in the colder temperate waters during summer and fall months. Young swordfish grow very rapidly, reaching about 140 cm LJFL (lower-jaw fork length) by age three, but grow slowly thereafter. Females grow faster than males and reach a larger maximum size. Tagging studies have shown that some swordfish can live up to 15 years. Swordfish are difficult to age, but about 50% of females were considered to be mature by age five, at a length of about 180 cm. However, the most recent information indicates a smaller length and age at maturity. The analysis of the horizontal movements evidences seasonal patterns, with fish generally moving south by winter and returning to the temperate foraging grounds in spring. Broader areas of mixing between some eastern and western areas were also suggested. These new results obtained by pop-up satellite tags also fully confirm the previous knowledge that was available from fishery data: deep longline settings catch swordfish during the day-time as a by-catch, while shallow setting longliners target swordfish at night closer to the surface. SWO-ATL-2. Fishery indicators Due to the broad geographical distribution of Atlantic swordfish (SWO-ATL-Figure 1) in coastal and off-shore areas (mostly ranging from 50ºN to 45ºS), this species is available to a large number of fishing countries. SWO-ATL-Figure 2 shows total estimated catches for North and South Atlantic swordfish. Directed longline fisheries from Canada, EU-Spain, and the United States have operated since the late 1950s or early 1960s, and harpoon fisheries have existed at least since the late 1800s. Other directed swordfish fisheries include fleets from Brazil, Morocco, Namibia, EU-Portugal, South Africa, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The primary by-catch or opportunistic fisheries that take swordfish are tuna fleets from Chinese Taipei, Japan, Korea and EU-France. The tuna longline fishery started in 1956 and has operated throughout the Atlantic since then, with substantial catches of swordfish that are produced as a by-catch of tuna fisheries. The largest proportion of the Atlantic catches is made using surface-drifting longline. However, many additional gears are used, including traditional gillnets off the coast of western Africa. Trends by area (NE vs. NW Atlantic) in the CPUE indexes were consistent with the seasonal movement patterns observed in the electronic tagging data, as well as in the catches and sex-ratio distributions. Relationships observed for the eastern Atlantic were opposite to those in the western Atlantic. This pattern was correlated with the decadal cycling of the AMO as well as that of the North Atlantic Oscillation

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(NAO). Including the AMO as a covariate to area specific catchability within the assessment model helped reduce the conflicting directions of the various CPUE trends. Further analysis and hypothesis testing was recommended to determine if the relationship was due to a swordfish temperature preference, a change in prey distribution, or perhaps both. To support this hypothesis testing the Group encouraged a group of swordfish scientists to work towards uniting the available North Atlantic swordfish CPUE data into a single dataset so that a more refined, area specific CPUE analyses could be conducted. For both the North and South Atlantic some of the indices of abundance were affected by changes in gear technology and management that could not be accounted for in the CPUE standardization, and therefore had to be split. Total Atlantic The total Atlantic estimated catch (landings plus dead discards) of swordfish (North and South, including reported dead discards) in 2018 (19,262 t) was 7.1% lower than the reported catch of 2017 (20,726 t). As a small number of countries have not yet reported their 2018 catches and because of unknown unreported catches, this value should be considered provisional and subject to further revision. The trends in mean fish weight taken in the North and South Atlantic fisheries are shown in SWO-ATL-Figure 3. North Atlantic For the past decade, the North Atlantic estimated catch (landings plus dead discards) has averaged about 11,245 t per year (SWO-ATL-Table 1). The catch in 2018 (8,858 t) represents a 56.2% decrease since the 1987 peak in North Atlantic landings (20,238 t). These reduced landings have been attributed to ICCAT regulatory recommendations and shifts in fleet distributions, including the movement of some vessels in certain years to the South Atlantic or out of the Atlantic. In addition, some fleets, including at least the United States, EU-Spain and EU-Portugal have changed operating procedures to opportunistically target tuna and/or sharks, taking advantage of market conditions and higher relative catch rates of these species previously considered as by-catch in some fleets. Recently, socio-economic factors may have also contributed to the decline in catch. Available catch per unit effort (CPUE) series were evaluated by the Committee and certain indices were identified as suitable for use in the assessment models (Canada, EU-Portugal, EU-Spain, Japan, Morocco, and USA). Trends in standardized CPUE series by fleets contributing to the stock assessment models are shown in SWO-ATL-Figure 4. Most of the series have an increasing trend since the late 1990s, but show a decrease in the more recent years. There have been some recent changes in United States regulations that may have impacted catch rates. The combined index used as the continuity model from the previous assessment is shown in SWO-ATL-Figure 5. South Atlantic The historical trend of catch (landings plus dead discards) can be divided in two periods: before and after 1980. The first one is characterized by relatively low catches, generally less than 5,000 t (with an average value of 1,700 t). After 1980, landings increased continuously up to a peak of 21,930 t in 1995, levels that are comparable to the peak of North Atlantic harvest (20,238 t in 1987). This increase of landings was, in part, due to progressive shifts of fishing effort to the South Atlantic, primarily from the North Atlantic, as well as other waters. Expansion of fishing activities by southern coastal countries, such as Brazil and Uruguay, also contributed to this increase in catches. The reduction in catch following the peak in 1995 resulted from regulations and was partly due to a shift to other oceans and target species. In 2018, the 10,404 t of reported catch was about 53% lower than the 1995 reported level (SWO-ATL-Table 1). The SCRS received reports from Brazil and Uruguay over the last years that they have reduced their fishing effort directed towards swordfish in recent years. Uruguay recently received increased albacore quotas that may allow increased effort for swordfish in the near future. Available catch per unit effort (CPUE) series for the south Atlantic swordfish were evaluated by the Committee and certain indices were identified as suitable for use in assessment models (Brazil, EU-Spain, Japan, South Africa, Uruguay). The available indices are illustrated in SWO-ATL-Figure 6.

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Discards Since 1991, very few fleets have reported dead discards (see SWO-ATL-Table 1). For the North Atlantic the volume of reported discards has ranged from a minimum of 157 t in 2009 to a maximum of 1,138 t in 2000, with 150 t reported for 2018. For the South Atlantic the volume of reported discards has ranged from a minimum of 1 t in several years to a maximum of 147 t in 2010, with 27 t reported for 2018. The Committee continued to express concerns due to the low percentage of fleets that have reported annual dead discards (in t) in recent years and that what has been reported is not necessarily scaled to the entire fishery. SWO-ATL-3. State of the stocks North Atlantic Three stock assessment platforms were used to provide estimates of stock status for the North Atlantic swordfish stock, a Surplus Production Model (ASPIC - A Stock Production Model Incorporating Covariates), a Bayesian Surplus Production Model with process error (BSP2 - Bayesian Surplus Production 2) and an Integrated Age Structured Model (SS - Stock Synthesis). Stock status was determined from the Integrated Age Structured and Bayesian Surplus Production models, while the Surplus Production Model was used mainly to provide continuity with the previous assessments. The final base case Age Structured model estimated that B2015 was above BMSY (median = 1.13, 95% CIs = 0.81-1.45) and F2015 was lower than FMSY (median = 0.75, 95% CIs = 0.57-0.92) (SWO-ATL-Figure 7). The final base case Bayesian Surplus Production model estimated that current biomass (B2015) was near BMSY (median = 0.99, 95% CIs = 0.77-1.24) and current F2015 was lower than FMSY (median = 0.81, 95% CIs = 0.61-1.10) (SWO-ATL-Figure 8). Both models agreed that overfishing is not occurring and that biomass is either higher or very close to BMSY (SWO-ATL-Figure 9). The estimate of stock status in 2017 is slightly more pessimistic than the estimated status in the previous 2009 and 2013 assessments, and suggests that in 2015 there was a 61% probability that the stock is at or above MSY reference levels. The results obtained in this evaluation are not strictly comparable with those obtained in the last assessments due to the incorporation of more data sources, and using joint probabilities from two base case models, and updated catch and CPUE information. The most recent estimates of stock productivity are lower than the previous estimates. Compared with the previous 2009 and 2013 Surplus Production base case models, the trajectory of biomass are similar until the late 1990s, thereafter the current model predicted considerable lower relative biomass (SWO-ATL-Figure 10). It is particularly noteworthy that the CPUE series have been decreasing since 2012, causing biomass trends to adjust to a lower minimum compared to the previous assessments. The Committee noted that the 2017 assessment represents a significant improvement in the understanding of current stock status for North Atlantic swordfish using updated information and integration of the new data sources. The Committee therefore recommends that management advice for North Atlantic swordfish, including stock status and projections, should be based on Bayesian Surplus Production and Age Structured models. South Atlantic In 2017, evaluation of the status of the South Atlantic swordfish stock was assessed using two Bayesian biomass dynamics production models with process error (BSP2 and JABBA - Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment). Stock status and projections were determined from JABBA, while BSP2 was used mainly to provide several sensitivity analyses. The results from both models for the South Atlantic swordfish were consistent. The final base case BSP2 model estimated that current biomass (B2015) was lower than BMSY (median = 0.64, 95% CIs = 0.43-1.00) and current F2015 was higher than FMSY (median = 1.15; 95% CIs = 0.61-1.82) (SWO-ATL-Figure 11). The final base case JABBA model estimated that B2015 was also below BMSY (median = 0.72, 95% CIs = 0.53-1.01) while F2015 was very close to FMSY (median = 0.98, 95% CIs = 0.70-1.36) (SWO-ATL-Figure 12).

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Both models agreed that the southern swordfish stock biomass is overfished, and that overfishing is either occurring or current F is very close to FMSY. The Committee agreed that either one of the Bayesian Production Models could be used for management advice, but given that both are very similar in structure and use of information only one should be used. Given that JABBA is written in open-source software with more capabilities for future evolutions, the Committee agreed that the management advice, including stock status and projections, should be based on that model (SWO-ATL-Figure 13).

The results obtained in this assessment are not comparable with those obtained in the last assessment (2013) due to the use of individual CPUEs compared to the use of a single CPUE combined across indices in the previous assessment. There was also an informative prior for K based on values from the North Atlantic in the 2013 assessment, but not in the current assessment. In 2013, the Committee noted that it was unknown whether it was possible to obtain higher yields from the stock as the Bayesian Production Model suggested, or whether the stock was already fully exploited as the Surplus Production Model suggested. In 2017, with the possibility of incorporating individual CPUEs series and without the need to establish strong assumptions in productivity based in the North Atlantic stock, it was possible to provide specific quantitative advice for this stock.

SWO-ATL-4. Outlook

North Atlantic

Results from the previous 2013 assessment indicated that there was a greater than 90% probability that the northern swordfish stock had rebuilt to or above BMSY. However, given the new estimates of biomass and lower productivity, the stock status now shows a 61% probability of being above BMSY.

Based on the currently available information to the Committee, both the Bayesian Production and Age Structured base models were projected to the year 2028 under constant TAC scenarios of 8 to 19 thousand tons. Projections used reported catch as of July, 2017 for 2016. For those CPCs whose reported catch was not available, their catch was assumed to be the average of the last three years (2013-2015), giving a total catch of 11,296 t.

For the final base case Bayesian Production Model, projections incorporated process error and the predicted trajectories are therefore more realistic of the future uncertainty in the stock status. MSY is estimated to be around 13,400 t, and taking into account current stock status and process error catches around 13,000 t are expected to allow the population to remain at or above BMSY throughout the projected time period (SWO-ATL-Figure 14).

For the final base case Integrated Age Structured model, projections of stock status at various levels of future catch are shown in SWO-ATL-Figure 14. Given the current status of the stock being quite close to the MSY benchmarks, values of catches around 13,000 t are also projected to maintain biomass above BMSY during the projected time frame.

South Atlantic

Projections were conducted for the final base case Bayesian Production model under constant TAC scenarios of 4 to 16 thousand tons. Projections used reported catch as of July 2017 for 2016. For those CPCs whose reported catch was not yet available, it was assumed that their catch was the average of the last three years (2013-2015), giving a total catch of 10,002 t.

Although the median MSY was around 14,600 t, the 2015 biomass depletion level at B/BMSY = 0.72 would require catches be reduced to a level at or below 14,000 t to rebuild the population to biomass levels that can produce MSY by the end of the projection period in 2028 (SWO-ATL-Figure 15). SWO-ATL-5. Effect of current regulations

New catch regulations were implemented on the basis of Rec. 06-02, which entered into effect in 2007 (Rec. 08-02 extended the provisions of Rec. 06-02 to include 2009). Rec. 09-02 came into effect in 2010 and extended most of the provisions of Rec. 06-02 for one year only. Rec. 10-02 came into effect in 2011, and again extended those provisions for one year only, but with a slight reduction in total allowable catch (TAC). For the North and South Atlantic, the most recent recommendations can be found in Recs. 17-02 and 17-03.

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Catch limits The total allowable catch in the North Atlantic during the 2007 to 2009 period was 14,000 t per year. The reported catch during that period averaged 11,811 t and did not exceed the TAC in any year. In 2010, the TAC was reduced to 13,700 t and in 2018 it was reduced to 13,200 t. The reported catch since 2010 averaged 11,197 t and exceeded the TAC in one year (2012, 13,868 t). The total allowable catch in the South Atlantic for the years 2007 through 2009 was 17,000 t. The reported catch during that period averaged 13,675 t, and did not exceed the TAC in any year. In 2010, the TAC was reduced to 15,000 t and in 2017 it was reduced to 14,000. The reported catch since 2010 averaged 10,658 t and did not exceed the TAC in any year. Minimum size limits There are two minimum size options that are applied to the entire Atlantic: 125 cm LJFL with a 15% tolerance, or 119 cm LJFL with zero tolerance and evaluation of the discards. In 2017, the Committee provided information on the effectiveness of existing minimum size regulations. Since the implementation of the minimum landing sizes in 2000, the estimate of percentage of swordfish less than 125 cm LJFL reported landed (in number) has been generally decreasing in the North Atlantic and stable in the South. In the North Atlantic, the estimate was 33% in 2000 and decreased to 23% in 2015. In the South Atlantic the estimate was 18% in 2000, had a maximum of 19% in 2006 and decreased to 13% in 2015. The Committee notes that these estimations have high levels of substitutions for a significant portion of the total catch and are highly unreliable and biased unless CPCs fully report size samples from the entire catch. The Committee also noted high values of hooking mortality (ranging between 78-88%) on small swordfish (<125 cm LJFL) in some surface longline fisheries targeting swordfish, with the post-release mortality of specimens discarded alive unknown. Recommending and evaluating other strategies to protect juvenile swordfish will require completeness of datasets on fishing effort and size data over the entire Atlantic and should take into account the effects on other species. In view of the Commission objective to protect small swordfish, the Committee therefore recommends that future work should be carried out to determine more precisely the spatial distribution and magnitude of fishing effort, size and sex distribution of undersized swordfish in the Atlantic, using high resolution observer data. SWO-ATL-6. Management recommendations North Atlantic SWO-ATL-Tables 2, 3 and 4 show, respectively, the probabilities of maintaining the stock in the green quadrant of the Kobe plot, maintaining B>BMSY and maintaining F<FMSY, over a range of TAC options for North Atlantic swordfish over a period of 10 years. The current TAC of 13,700 t has a 36% probability of maintaining the North Atlantic swordfish stock in the green quadrant of the Kobe plot by 2028, whereas a TAC of 13,200 t would have a 50% probability, and would also result in the biomass being above BMSY with a probability greater than 50%, consistent with Rec. 16-03 (SWO-ATL-Table 3). The Committee also recognizes that the above advice does not account for removals associated with the actual mortality of unreported dead and live discards, quota carryovers (15% in the North Atlantic), quota transfers across the North and South stock management boundaries nor the total cumulative quota, which includes that allocated to "other CPCs" and would fall above the TAC if achieved. The Committee emphasizes the importance of this uncertainty particularly given that the current (2015) estimated biomass is close to BMSY.

Noting the progress done towards North Atlantic SWO MSE, the Committee recommends that the Commission continues to support this process.

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South Atlantic SWO-ATL-Tables 5, 6 and 7 show, respectively, the probabilities of maintaining the stock in the green quadrant of the Kobe plot, maintaining B>BMSY and maintaining F<FMSY, over a range of TAC options for South Atlantic swordfish over a period of 10 years. The current TAC of 15,000 t has a 26% probability of rebuilding the South Atlantic swordfish stock to within MSY reference levels by 2028, whereas a TAC of 14,000 t would have a 50% probability of rebuilding the stock. The Committee also recognizes that the above advice does not account for removals associated with the actual mortality of unreported dead and live discards, quota carryovers (30% in the South Atlantic) nor quota transfers across the North and South stock management boundaries. The Committee emphasizes the importance of this uncertainty particularly given that the current (2015) estimated biomass is lower than BMSY for the South Atlantic stock ATLANTIC SWORDFISH SUMMARY

North Atlantic South Atlantic

Maximum Sustainable Yield

13,059 (11,840-14,970)1

14,570 (12,962-16,123)2

Current (2018) Yield3

8,858 t

10,404 t

Yield in last year used in assessment (2015)4

10,668 t

10,227 t

BMSY

82,640 t (51,580-132,010)5 52,465 t (35,119-80,951) 2

SSBMSY 21,262 t (14,797-27,728)6 Unknown FMSY

0.17 (0.10-0.27) 1

0.28 (0.17-0.44) 2

Relative Biomass (B2015/BMSY)

1.04 (0.82 - 1.39) 7

0.72 (0.53 - 1.01) 8

Relative Fishing Mortality (F2015/FMSY)

0.78 (0.62-1.01)7

0.98 (0.70 - 1.36) 8

Stock Status (2015)

Overfished: NO

Overfished: YES

Overfishing: NO

Overfishing: NO

Management Measures in Effect TAC (2018-2021): 13,200 t

[Rec. 17-02]

125/119 cm LJFL minimum size

TAC (2018-2021): 14,000 t [Rec. 17-03]

125/119 cm LJFL minimum size

1 Average from base case BSP2 and SS models; range corresponding to the lowest and highest 95% CIs from the two models. 2 From base case JABBA model with 95% CIs. 3 Provisional and subject to revision. 4 Based on catch data available in July 2017 for the stock assessment session.

5 From base case BSP2 model, with 95% CIs. 6 From base case SS model, with 95% CIs. 7 Median and 95% quantiles from base case SS and BSP2 models. 8 Median and 95% quantiles from base case JABBA model.

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SWO-ATL-Table 1. Estimated catches (t) of Atlantic swordfish (Xiphias gladius) by gear and flag. (v2, 2019-10-02)

SWO-ATL-Tableau 1. Prises estimées (t) d’espadon de l’Atlantique (Xiphias gladius) par engin et pavillon. (v2, 2019-10-02)

SWO ATL-Tabla 1. Capturas estimadas de pez espada del Atlántico (Xiphias gladius) por arte y bandera. (v2, 2019-10-02)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

TOTAL 34459 38803 33511 31567 26251 27123 27180 25139 23758 24077 25149 25536 25715 27932 23596 24930 24251 23978 24554 21238 20634 21011 21034 20726 19262

ATN 15501 16872 15222 13025 12223 11622 11453 10011 9654 11442 12068 12373 11470 12302 11050 12081 11553 12523 13868 12069 10678 10673 10376 10169 8858

ATS 18958 21930 18289 18542 14027 15502 15728 15128 14104 12634 13081 13163 14245 15630 12546 12848 12698 11455 10686 9169 9956 10338 10658 10556 10404

Landings ATN Longline 14365 15850 13819 12203 10961 10715 9921 8676 8799 10333 11407 11528 10838 11475 10341 11439 10964 11610 12955 11344 10059 10121 9514 9233 8343

Other surf. 428 496 815 371 778 377 394 433 240 486 341 512 409 546 465 485 437 511 512 526 463 386 758 787 365

ATS Longline 17839 21584 17859 18299 13748 14823 15448 14302 13576 11714 12488 12915 13723 14967 11761 12106 11920 10833 10255 8958 9736 10047 10518 10308 10351

Other surf. 1119 346 429 222 269 672 278 825 527 920 593 248 522 572 779 743 630 548 291 210 175 248 139 137 26

Discards ATN Longline 708 526 562 439 476 525 1137 896 607 618 313 323 215 273 235 151 148 392 391 199 156 167 105 149 150

Other surf. 0 0 26 12 9 4 1 6 8 5 7 10 8 8 9 7 5 9 10 0 0 0 0 0

ATS Longline 0 0 1 21 10 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 91 6 0 147 74 140 0 46 43 2 111 26

Other surf. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Landings ATN CP Barbados 0 0 33 16 16 12 13 19 10 21 25 44 39 27 39 20 13 23 21 16 21 29 20 21 18

Belize 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 112 106 184 141 142 76 1 3 59 145

Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Canada 1676 1610 739 1089 1115 1119 968 1079 959 1285 1203 1558 1404 1348 1334 1300 1346 1551 1489 1505 1604 1579 1548 1188 782

China PR 86 104 132 40 337 304 22 102 90 316 56 108 72 85 92 92 73 75 59 96 60 141 135 81 86

Curaçao 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Côte d'Ivoire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 30 0 0 0 0 0 27 21 0

EU.Denmark 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU.España 6185 6953 5547 5140 4079 3996 4595 3968 3957 4586 5376 5521 5448 5564 4366 4949 4147 4889 5622 4084 3750 4013 3916 3588 3186

EU.France 46 84 97 164 110 104 122 0 74 169 102 178 92 46 14 15 35 16 94 44 28 66 90 79 80

EU.Ireland 0 0 15 15 132 81 35 17 5 12 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 2 5 2 3 15 15 10 13

EU.Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU.Poland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU.Portugal 1599 1617 1703 903 773 777 732 735 766 1032 1320 900 949 778 747 898 1054 1203 882 1438 1241 1420 1460 1871 1691

EU.Rumania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU.United Kingdom 3 1 5 11 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

El Salvador 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FR.St Pierre et Miquelon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 3 36 48 0 82 48 17 90 1 0 18 3 0 0 0 0

Grenada 0 1 4 15 15 42 84 0 54 88 73 56 30 26 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Guatemala 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Guinea Ecuatorial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0

Iceland 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Japan 933 1043 1494 1218 1391 1089 161 0 0 0 575 705 656 889 935 778 1062 523 639 300 545 430 379 456 325

Korea Rep. 16 16 19 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 65 175 157 3 0 0 0 64 35 0 9 19 9

Liberia 26 28 28 28 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 95 5

Maroc 36 79 462 267 191 119 114 523 223 329 335 334 341 237 430 724 963 782 770 1062 1062 850 900 900 950

Mexico 14 0 22 14 28 24 37 27 34 32 44 41 31 35 34 32 35 38 40 33 32 31 36 64 44

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Norway 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Panama 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Philippines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 44 5 0 8 0 22 28 0 17 36 9 14 0 0 0

Russian Federation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Senegal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 28 11 1 44 43 49 78 52 51 44

Sierra Leone 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

St. Vincent and Grenadines 0 4 3 1 0 1 0 22 22 7 7 7 0 51 7 34 13 11 8 4 40 102 33 46 26

Trinidad and Tobago 180 150 158 110 130 138 41 75 92 78 83 91 19 29 48 30 21 16 14 16 26 17 13 36 3

U.S.A. 3366 4026 3559 2987 3058 2908 2863 2217 2384 2513 2380 2160 1873 2463 2387 2730 2274 2551 3393 2824 1809 1581 1408 1294 1137

U.S.S.R. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

UK.Bermuda 0 1 1 5 5 3 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 0 0

UK.British Virgin Islands 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 7 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

UK.Turks and Caicos 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 17 0 0 0 0

Vanuatu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 29 14 0 0 0 10 23 15 2 4 7 0 0 0

Venezuela 69 54 85 20 37 30 44 21 34 45 53 55 22 30 11 13 24 18 25 24 24 29 53 52

NCC Chinese Taipei 507 489 521 509 286 285 347 299 310 257 30 140 172 103 82 89 88 192 166 115 78 115 148 78 162

Guyana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10

NCO Cuba 50 86 7 7 7 7 0 0 10 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Dominica 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NEI (ETRO) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saint Kitts and Nevis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

Seychelles 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sta. Lucia 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

ATS CP Angola 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 13 0

Belize 0 1 0 0 0 17 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 32 111 121 207 197 136 45 111 176 166 115

Brazil 1571 1975 1892 4100 3847 4721 4579 4082 2910 2920 2998 3785 4430 4153 3407 3386 2926 3033 2833 2384 2892 2599 2935 2406 2798

China PR 0 0 0 0 29 534 344 200 423 353 278 91 300 473 470 291 296 248 316 196 206 328 222 302 355

Curaçao 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Côte d'Ivoire 20 19 26 18 25 26 20 19 19 43 29 31 39 17 159 267 156 145 88 110 55 42 25 17 57

EU.Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU.España 7937 11290 9622 8461 5832 5758 6388 5789 5741 4527 5483 5402 5300 5283 4073 5183 5801 4700 4852 4184 4113 5059 4992 4654 4404

EU.France 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

EU.Lithuania 794 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU.Portugal 0 380 389 441 384 381 392 393 380 354 345 493 440 428 271 367 232 263 184 125 252 236 250 466 369

EU.United Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

El Salvador 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gabon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ghana 51 103 140 44 106 121 117 531 372 734 343 55 32 65 177 132 116 60 54 37 26 56 36 55 6

Guatemala 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Guinea Ecuatorial 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Honduras 0 6 4 5 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Japan 4699 3619 2197 1494 1186 775 790 685 833 924 686 480 1090 2155 1600 1340 1314 1233 1162 684 976 659 637 915 640

Korea Rep. 164 164 7 18 7 5 10 0 2 24 70 36 94 176 223 10 0 0 42 47 53 5 19 11 18

Namibia 22 0 0 0 0 730 469 751 504 191 549 832 1118 1038 518 25 417 414 85 129 395 225 466 600 881

Nigeria 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Panama 0 0 0 0 29 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Philippines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 1 8 1 1 4 58 41 49 14 35 15 35 58 0 0 0

S. Tomé e Príncipe 190 178 166 148 135 129 120 120 120 120 126 147 138 138 183 188 193 60 84 60 94 145 77 65

Senegal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 138 195 180 264 162 178 143 97 173 160 92

Sierra Leone 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

South Africa 1 4 1 1 240 143 328 547 649 293 295 199 186 207 142 170 145 97 50 171 152 218 164 189 189

St. Vincent and Grenadines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 7 16 4 3 2 2 19 0 5 9 4

U.S.A. 0 0 171 396 160 179 142 43 200 21 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

U.S.S.R. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

UK.Sta Helena 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 2 0 0 0

Uruguay 165 499 644 760 889 650 713 789 768 850 1105 843 620 464 370 501 222 179 40 103 0 0 0 0 0

Vanuatu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 26 6 3 0 3 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0

NCC Chinese Taipei 2829 2876 2873 2562 1147 1168 1303 1149 1164 1254 745 744 377 671 727 612 410 424 379 582 406 511 478 416 446

NCO Argentina 24 0 0 0 0 38 0 5 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Benin 25 24 24 10 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cambodia 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cuba 452 778 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mixed flags (FR+ES) 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NEI (ETRO) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Seychelles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Togo 14 14 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Discards ATN CP Canada 0 0 0 5 52 35 50 26 33 79 45 106 38 61 39 9 15 8 111 59 12 8 11 21 5

EU.France 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0 598 567 319 263 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Korea Rep. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 170 46 19 0 2 0 0

Mexico 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

U.S.A. 708 526 588 446 433 494 490 308 263 282 275 227 185 220 205 148 138 223 217 120 137 137 90 111 138

UK.Bermuda 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NCC Chinese Taipei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 7 18 4 18 7

ATS CP Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU.France 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Korea Rep. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 147 70 23 0 0 0 0 0

South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

U.S.A. 0 0 1 21 10 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NCC Chinese Taipei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 117 0 45 43 2 111 26

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SWO-ATL-Table 2. Estimated probabilities (%) that fishing mortality is below FMSY for North Atlantic swordfish from the Bayesian Surplus Production and Age Structured final base models.

Catch 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

12000 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83

12200 81 81 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 79 79

12400 78 77 78 77 77 76 77 76 75 75 75

12500 77 75 76 75 75 75 74 74 73 73 73

12600 76 74 74 74 74 73 72 72 71 71 70

12700 74 72 72 72 72 70 71 69 69 69 67

12800 72 71 71 70 70 69 68 67 67 65 64

12900 71 70 68 68 68 66 65 65 63 63 61

13000 70 68 67 66 65 64 62 62 61 60 58

13100 68 66 65 64 63 61 60 58 58 56 56

13200 67 65 63 62 60 59 58 56 55 54 52

13300 65 64 61 61 58 56 55 53 52 50 50

13400 64 63 60 58 56 53 52 51 49 48 46

13500 62 61 58 57 54 51 49 47 46 44 43

13600 61 59 56 54 52 49 47 45 43 42 41

13700 60 57 55 52 50 47 45 43 41 38 37

13800 58 55 52 50 47 45 42 40 38 36 35

14000 54 51 48 46 43 41 38 35 33 32 30 SWO-ATL-Table 3. Estimated probabilities (%) that biomass is above BMSY for North Atlantic swordfish from the Bayesian Surplus Production and Age Structured final base models.

Catch 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 12000 74 74 75 75 76 77 77 78 77 78 78 12200 74 74 74 74 75 75 75 76 76 75 75 12400 74 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 72 12500 74 73 73 73 73 72 72 72 71 71 70 12600 74 73 72 72 72 71 71 71 70 70 69 12700 74 73 71 71 71 70 70 69 69 68 67 12800 74 73 71 71 70 69 69 68 67 66 65 12900 74 73 71 70 69 68 68 66 65 64 63 13000 73 72 70 70 68 67 66 65 64 63 61 13100 73 72 70 69 67 66 65 64 62 61 59 13200 73 71 69 68 66 65 64 62 60 59 57 13300 73 71 69 67 65 64 62 61 59 58 55 13400 73 71 69 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 53 13500 73 71 68 66 64 62 60 57 55 53 51 13600 73 71 68 66 63 60 58 56 53 51 49 13700 73 71 68 65 62 59 57 55 51 48 47 13800 73 70 67 64 61 58 55 53 49 47 44 14000 73 69 66 63 60 56 53 49 46 43 40

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SWO-ATL-Table 4. Estimated probabilities (%) that both the fishing mortality is below FMSY and biomass is above BMSY for North Atlantic swordfish from the Bayesian Surplus Production and Age Structured final base models.

Catch 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

12000 73 73 75 74 76 76 77 77 77 78 77

12200 72 72 72 73 74 74 74 74 74 74 74

12400 71 71 71 71 71 72 72 71 71 71 70

12500 71 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 69 69 68

12600 70 69 69 69 69 68 68 68 67 67 66

12700 69 68 68 68 67 66 66 66 65 64 64

12800 68 67 67 67 66 65 64 64 63 62 61

12900 67 66 65 65 64 63 62 62 60 59 59

13000 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56

13100 66 64 62 62 60 59 57 57 56 55 53

13200 64 63 61 60 58 57 55 54 53 52 50

13300 64 62 60 58 56 54 53 51 50 49 48

13400 62 61 58 57 55 52 50 49 47 46 45

13500 61 59 57 55 53 50 48 46 45 43 42

13600 60 57 55 53 51 48 46 44 43 41 39

13700 59 56 54 51 49 46 44 42 40 38 36

13800 57 54 52 49 47 44 42 40 37 36 34

14000 54 51 48 46 43 40 37 35 33 31 29 SWO-ATL-Table 5. Estimated probabilities (%) that fishing mortality is below FMSY for South Atlantic swordfish from the Bayesian Surplus Production final base model.

Catch 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

10000 86 90 92 94 95 96 96 97 97 97 97

10500 83 87 90 91 93 94 94 95 95 96 96

11000 78 83 86 88 90 91 92 93 93 93 94

11500 73 78 81 84 86 87 88 89 90 91 92

12000 68 73 76 79 81 83 84 86 86 87 88

12500 62 66 70 73 75 77 78 79 80 81 82

13000 56 60 63 66 68 70 71 72 73 74 75

13200 53 56 59 62 64 66 67 68 69 70 71

13400 51 54 57 60 61 63 64 65 66 66 67

13600 48 51 53 56 57 59 60 61 62 63 63

13700 47 50 52 54 55 57 58 59 60 60 61

13800 46 48 50 52 53 55 56 57 57 58 58

13900 44 46 49 50 52 53 53 54 55 56 56

14000 44 45 47 49 50 51 52 52 53 53 54

14500 38 38 39 39 40 40 40 41 41 41 41

15000 32 32 31 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 27

15500 26 25 24 22 20 20 18 17 17 16 16

16000 22 19 17 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7

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SWO-ATL-Table 6. Estimated probabilities (%) that biomass is above BMSY for South Atlantic swordfish from the Bayesian Surplus Production final base model.

Catch 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 10000 35 51 65 75 81 85 88 90 92 93 95 10500 35 51 63 72 78 82 86 88 90 91 92 11000 35 49 59 67 74 79 82 85 87 88 90 11500 36 47 57 64 70 75 78 81 83 85 86 12000 36 46 54 60 66 70 74 77 79 81 83 12500 36 44 51 56 60 65 68 71 73 75 76 13000 36 42 47 52 56 59 62 65 66 68 70 13200 36 41 46 50 54 57 59 61 63 65 66 13400 36 41 45 49 52 54 56 58 60 61 62 13600 35 39 43 46 49 51 53 55 56 58 59 13700 35 39 43 45 48 50 52 53 54 56 57 13800 35 38 41 44 46 49 50 51 53 54 55 13900 35 38 41 43 45 47 48 50 51 52 52 14000 36 38 41 43 44 46 47 48 49 50 51 14500 36 36 37 38 38 39 39 39 40 39 40 15000 36 35 34 33 32 32 31 31 30 29 29 15500 35 33 31 28 26 24 23 21 20 19 18 16000 35 31 27 24 21 18 16 14 12 11 10

SWO-ATL-Table 7. Estimated probabilities (%) that both the fishing mortality is below FMSY and biomass is above BMSY for South Atlantic swordfish from the Bayesian Surplus Production final base model.

Catch 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

10000 35 51 65 75 81 85 88 90 92 93 95

10500 35 51 63 72 78 82 86 88 90 91 92

11000 35 49 59 67 74 79 82 85 87 88 90

11500 36 47 57 64 70 75 78 81 83 85 86

12000 36 46 54 60 66 70 74 77 79 81 83

12500 36 44 51 56 60 65 68 71 73 75 76

13000 36 42 47 52 56 59 62 65 66 68 70

13200 36 41 45 50 53 57 59 61 63 65 65

13400 35 40 45 49 51 54 56 58 59 61 62

13600 35 39 43 46 49 51 52 55 56 57 58

13700 35 39 42 45 47 50 52 53 54 56 57

13800 35 38 41 44 46 48 50 51 53 53 54

13900 34 37 40 43 45 46 48 49 50 52 52

14000 35 37 40 42 44 46 47 48 48 49 50

14500 33 34 35 36 36 37 38 38 38 38 39

15000 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 26

15500 26 25 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 16 15

16000 22 19 17 15 13 12 11 9 8 8 7

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a. SWO (1960-69)

b. SWO (1970-79)

c. SWO (1980-89)

d. SWO (1990-99)

e. SWO (2000-09)

f. SWO (2010-17)

SWO-ATL-Figure 1. Geographic distribution of swordfish cumulative catch (t) by gear, in the Convention area, shown on a decadal scale. The maps are scaled to the maximum catch observed during 1960-2017 (the last decade only covers 8 years).

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SWO-ATL-Figure 2. North and South Atlantic swordfish catches and TAC (t), for the period 1950-2018.

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SWO-ATL-Figure 3. Trends in mean weight (kg) for the North and South Atlantic swordfish stocks.

SWO-ATL-Figure 4. Standardized CPUEs series provided by CPCs for the North Atlantic swordfish and the combined index for the base continuity production model. The CPUE series were scaled to their mean for comparison purposes.

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SWO-ATL-Figure 5. Standardized combined biomass CPUE index for North Atlantic and 95% confidence intervals, used as the continuity run for the Surplus Production model. The inset plot shows the detail of the index trend since 1990.

SWO-ATL-Figure 6. Standardized CPUEs series provided by CPCs for South Atlantic swordfish. The CPUE series were scaled to their mean for comparison purposes.

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SWO-ATL-Figure 7. Results from the North Atlantic swordfish base case Age Structured Model: trends in relative biomass (top) and fishing mortality (bottom). Dashed lines represent lower and upper 95% CIs.

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SWO-ATL-Figure 8. Results from the North Atlantic swordfish base case Bayesian Surplus Production Model: trends in relative biomass and fishing mortality. Dashed lines represent lower and upper 90% CIs.

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SWO-ATL-Figure 9. North Atlantic swordfish stock status terminal points (2015) from the final base Age Structured and Bayesian Surplus Production Models. The solid light blue circle is the estimated median point with the respective uncertainties from each model (Bayesian Surplus Production Model in orange and Age Structured model in dark blue). The larger light grey circle is the estimated overall median from both models. The pie chart below represents the probabilities of stock being in the different color quadrants combined form both models (red 5%, yellow 33%, green 61%).

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SWO-ATL-Figure 10. Comparison of relative biomass trends estimated by the Surplus Production base case model for the 2009, 2013 and 2017 North Atlantic swordfish stock assessments.

SWO-ATL-Figure 11. South Atlantic swordfish biomass and fishing mortality rates relative to MSY levels, from a Bayesian Surplus Production model (BSP2). Dashed lines represent lower and upper 90% CIs.

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SWO-ATL-Figure 12. South Atlantic swordfish biomass and fishing mortality rates relative to MSY levels, from the Bayesian Surplus Production base case model (JABBA). Grey areas represent lower and upper 95% CIs.

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SWO-ATL-Figure 13. Kobe plots for the Bayesian Surplus Production Model (JABBA) reference base case model for southern Atlantic swordfish. The solid blue circle is the estimated median point with the respective uncertainties in the terminal year (2015). The pie chart below represents the probabilities of stock being in the different color quadrants (red 47%, yellow 51%, green 2%).

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SWO-ATL-Figure 14. Median trends of relative biomass (B/BMSY) for the projected North Atlantic swordfish stock based on the final Age Structured (top) and Bayesian Surplus Production (BSP2, bottom) base case models under different constant catch scenarios (thousand tons).

B/Bmsy

1960 1980 2000 2020

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msy

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SWO-ATL-Figure 15. Median trends of relative biomass (B/BMSY) for the projected South Atlantic swordfish stock based on the Bayesian Surplus Production (JABBA) base case model under different constant catch scenarios (thousand tons).

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