DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 397 104 TM 025 230

TITLE Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.INSTITUTION National Center for Education Statistics (ED),

Washington, DC.REPORT NO NCES-96-169PUB DATE 95NOTE 30p.PUB TYPE Reference Materials Directories/Catalogs (132)

EDRS PRICE MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage.DESCRIPTORS *Employees; *Fede:7a1 Government; Long Range Planning;

*Policy Formation, *Prediction; Scholarly Journals;Social Indicators; Sociocultural Patterns; *StrategicPlanning; *Trend Analysis

ABSTRACT

This directory lists employees of the federalgovernment who are involved in forecasting for policy formation andtrend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phoneor e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee.Employees are listed for the following agencies; (1) Bureau of theCensus; (2) Bureau of Economic Analysis; (3) Bureau of HealthProfessions; (4) Bureau of Labor Statistics; (5) Department ofVeterans Affairs; (6) Economic Research Service; (7) EnergyInformation Administration; (8) Environmental Protection Agency; (9)

National Center for Education Statistics; and (10) U.S. GeologicalSurvey. Fifty-four selected publications in the area of forecastingare listed, and a form is included to register for inclusion in thenext forecasters' directory. (SLD)

Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be madefrom the original document. *

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FederalForecastersDirectory.199%5

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U.S. DE ARTMENT OF EDUCATION00 ic of aluceffonal Research and Impmernent

EDVCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATIONCENTER (ERIC)

This document has been reproduced asreceived from the person or organizationoriginating it.

CI Minor changes have been made toimprove reproduction quality.

Points of view or opinions stated in thisdocument do not necessarily representofficial OERI position or policy.

'Compiled by theNational Center for Education S tistics

Bureau of the Census Bureau of Economic,AnalysisButeau of Health ProfessionsBureau of Labor StatisticsDepartment of Veterans AffairsEconomic kesearch Service

Energy Information AdMinistration Environmental Protection Agency; National Center for Education StatisticsU.S:Geological Survey

BEST COPY AVAILABLE

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FederalForecastersDirectory1995

Compiled by theNational Center for Education Statistics

Bureau of the CensusBureau of Economic AnalysiseBureau of Health ProfessionsBureau of Labor Statisticss Department of Veterans AffairsEconomic Research Service

Energy Information AdministrationEnvironmental Protection AgencyNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S.Geological Survey

Table of Contents

Committee Members 3

Alphabetical List of Federal Forecasters 4

Organizational List 20

Selected Publications 23

Federal Forecasters Directory Form 27

2

Federal Forecasters Committee Members

Zoe AmbargisBureau of Economic Analysis

Stuart BernsteinBureau of Health Professions

Paul CampbellBureau of the Census

Michael ColbyEnvironmental Protection Agency

David CostelloEnergy Information Administration

Ronald EarleyEnergy Information Administration

Debra E. GeraldNational Center for Education Statistics

Howard FullertonBureau of Labor Statistics

Karen S. HamrickEconomic Research Service

Stephen MacDonaldEconomic Research Service

Norman SaundersBureau of Labor Statistics

Ethan T. SmithU.S. Geological Survey

Peg YoungU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs

Ching YuU.S. Geological Survey

3

Federal Forecasters List

A

Anderson, Robert B. 7

Barlow, Betty 7

Bernstein, Stuart 7

Brickey, Jim 7

Campbell, Paul R. 7

Castaneda, Jaime A. 7

Coates, Joseph F 8

Cohen, Michael P 8Cohen, Stephen B. 8

Cristofar, Stephen 8

Day, Jennifer C 8

Deardorff, Kevin E. 8

Denbaly, Mark 9

Dickinson, Dianne a

Donnelly, William A. 9

Downey, George 9

Earley, Ronald 9

Eck, Alan 9

Fell, Marvin 10

Fichtner, Jason J. 10

Foster, John P. 10Fowler, William J. Jr. 10

Fullerton, Howard N. 10

4

Gauthier, Lambert 10Gerald, Debra E. 11Gertel, Karl 11Gibbs, Robert M 11Glenn, Jerome C. 1 1

Golmant, John 11Grant, W. Vance 11Griffith, Alan B 12

Hamrick, Karen S. 12Helzner, Manuel 12Honeycutt, T. Crawford 12Hunter, Kenneth W. 12Hussar, William 2. 12

J

Jarrett, Robert E. 13Jelacic John 13Jerardo, Alberto 13Johnson, Elias P. 13Joutz, Fred 13

Katzoff, Jerald 14Kelch, David 14Klein, Robert E 14Kline, David 14

Levy, Elliot 14Losaw, William A. 14Lott, Robert H 15Lynch, David 15

Miller, Stanley 15Montgomery, Patricia A. 15Muhlbauer, Carl 15Mulvey, Janemarie 15

5

Naifeh, Mary 15

Peacock, David L . 16

Phan, Tai 16

Pierce, David A 16

Podolak, Peggy 16

Porter, Alan 16

Ray, R. Michael 16

Resmussen, Jon 17

Richardson, David H. 17

Rodgers, Gregory B. 17

Rogers, Alan C 17

Roningen, Vern 17

Rothman, Lawrence D. 17

Shackleton, Robert 17

Smith, Ethan T. 18

Snyder, Thomas 18

Sorense n, Kathleen 18

Spence Gregory 18

Su, Bety W. 18

Waldo, Daniel 18

Wetrogan, Signe I. 18

Williams, Dan 19

Woloshyn, Peter 19

Woodruff, Clifford H. III 19

Young, Peg 19

6

Robert B. AndersonEconomistOffice of Management and Budget(OMB)725 17th Street, NWWashington, DC 20503202-395-3381202-395-1151 (Fax)

B

Betty BarlowMathematical StatisticianEnergy Information AdministrationU.S. Department of Energy1000 Independence Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20585202-586-8746202-586-5846 (Fax)bbarlow@EIA.DOE.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: ARIMA; short-term energy forecasting.

Stuart BernsteinHealth StatisticianBureau of Health ProfessionsHealth Resources and ServicesAdministrationU.S. Department of Health and HumanServices5600 Fishers Lane, Room 8C09Rockville, MD 20857301-443-6837301-443-1164 (Fax)SBERNSTE@HRSA.SSW.DHHS.GOV(E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Healthmanpower supply and requirementsmodelling.

Jim BrickeyNetwork Management SpecialistU.S. Postal Service1745 Stout Street, Suite 800Denver, CO 80299-6000303-391-5164303-391-5177 (Fax)Jbrickey@email.usps.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: "Demand"forecasting; "intervention" forecasting("what if" analysis with multivariateforecasting).

C

Paul R. CampbellDemographerPopulation Projections BranchBureau of the CensusU.S. Department of CommerceRoom 2332, Building 3Washington, DC 20233301-457-2428301-457-2481 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: AIDSforecasts; demographic analysis; statepopulation forecasts.

Jaime A. CastanedaAgriculture EconomistEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture1301 New York Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20005202-219-0826202-501-8517 (Fax)Jaimec@Econ.AG.Gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Agriculturaltrade, consumption, and production.

7

Joseph F. CoatesPresidentCoates & Jarratt, Inc.3738 Kanawha Street, N.W.Washington, DC 20015202-966-9307202-966-8349 (Fax)Internet:cji@tmn.comSpecialty Areas/Interests: All areasthe future; demography; HR; SIT.

Stephen CristofarEconomistU.S. Postal Service Headquarters475 L'Enfant Plaza West, SWWashington, DC 20260-5233202-268-2943202-268-2941 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests:

of Economic/demographic trends andactivity; local/national mail volumes.

Michael P. CohenMathematical StatisticianNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Department of Education555 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Room 408Washington, DC 20208-5654202-219-1917202-219-2061 (Fax)MCOHEN@INET.ED.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Education;Evaluation; Methodology.

Stephen B. CohenSupervisory Program AnalystFederal Aviation AdministrationProgram Analysis and OperationsResearch DivisionFM, ASD-400Portals Building800 Independence Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20591202-358-5230202-358-5491 (Fax)Stephen_Cohen@mail.HO.FAA.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: B-J AR1MA-based modeling and analysis; programimpact prediction and evaluation.

Jennifer C. DayChiefEducation and Social StratificationBranchPopulation DivisionBureau of the CensusU.S. Department of CommerceWashington, DC 20233301-457-2464301-457-2481 (Fax)jday@census.govSpecialty Areas/Interests: Demography;education; household projections;population projections.

Kevin E. DeardorffStatistician/DemographerBureau of the CensusU.S. Department of CommerceRoom 2356, Building 3Washington, DC 20233301-457-2397301-457-2481 (Fax)Kdeardor@census.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Nationalpopulation projections.

8

Mark DenbalyBranch ChiefEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture1301 New York Avenue, NWRoom 1134Washington, DC 20005-4788202-219-0500202-219-1252 (Fax)mdenbaly@econ.ag.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests:Macroeconomics and commodity prices.

Dianne DickinsonStatisticianU.S. Patent and Trademark Office2011 Crystal Drive, CPISuite 507Washington, DC 20231703-305-8282703-305-8525 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Bibliometrics

William A. Donnelly, Ph.D.Chief of Research_Office of EconomicsU.S. International Trade Commission500 E Street, SWWashington, DC 20436202-205-3223202-205-2340 (Fax)WDONNELLY@USITC.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Computablegeneral equilibrium models--U.S.,regional, & global; econometric models;flexible functional forms.

George DowneyChiefGross Day Product by Industry andProjections BranchBureau of Economic Analysis (BE-61)U.S. Department of Commerce1441 L StreetWashington, DC 20230202-606-5341202-606-5321 (Fax)George.Downey@BEA.DOC.GOV(E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Regionalprojections of employment, earnings,and gross product for states, metroareas, BEA economic areas, andcounties.

Ronald EarleyEconomistEnergy Information Administration (EI-81)U.S. Department of Energy1000 Independence Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20585202-586-1398202-586-3045 (Fax)REARLEY@EIA.DOE.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests:Macroeconomic forecasting.

Alan EckEconomistBureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor2 Massachusetts Avenue, NERoom 2135Washington, DC 20212202-606-5705202-606-5745 (Fax)Eck_A@BLS.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Labor marketconditions--industry/occupationemployment.

9

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Marvin FellEconomistResearch Special ProgramsAdministrationU.S. Department of Transportation400 7th Street, SWWashington, DC 20590202-366-6205202-366-4566 (Fax)FELLM@RSPA.DOT.GOV (E-mail)

Jason J. FichtnerEconomistResearch DivisionInternal Revenue Service1111 Constitution Avenue, NW CP:RWashington, DC 20224202-874-0527202-874-0634 (Fax)jjfich50@MSMAIL3.irs.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Tax form(s)volumes.

John P. FosterProgram AnalystEnvironmental Protection Agency401 M Street, SW (MC 2162)Washington, DC 20460202-260-8496202-260-0290 (Fax)FOSTER.JOHN@EPAMAILEPA.GOV(E-Mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Economicforecasting; environmental forecasting;performance measuring forecasting.

William J. Fowler, Jr.Education StatisticianNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Department of Education555 New Jersey Avenue, NWRoom 410BWashington, DC 20208-5651202-219-1921202-219-1728 (Fax)wfowler@inet.ed.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Schoolfinance.

Howard N. Fullerton, Jr.Demographic StatisticianBureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor2 Massachusetts Avenue, NEWashington, DC 20212-0001202-606-5711202-606-5745 (Fax)FullertonH@bls.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Forecastevaluation; labor farce; population;presentation of forecasts.

Lambert GauthierChiefFarm Irk ime and Programs AnalysisSectioiAgriculture and Agri-Food CanadaRoom 689Sir John Carling Building930 Carling AvenueOttawa, Ontario, Canada K1A-0C5613-759-7414613-759-7236 (Fax)GAUTHIL@EM.AGRI.CA (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Farm income.

10

Debra E. GeraldMathematical StatisticianNational Center for Education StatisticsU. S. Department of Education555 New Jersey Avenue, NWRoom 408EWashington, DC 20208-5654202-219-1581202-219-2061 (Fax)Debra_Gerald©ed.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Projections ofenrollment, graduates, and teachers.

Kari GertelAgricultural EconomistRetired, Formerly ERS/USDAP.O. Box 70743Chevy Chase, MD 20813-0743301-652-3735Specialty Areas/Interests: Alternativemodels and techniques for forecastingfarmland values.

Robert M. GibbsRegional EconomistEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture1301 New York Avenue, NWRoom 340Washington, DC 20005202-501-7975202-219-0202 (Fax)rjibbs@econ.ag.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Employment;U.S. population; wages.

Jerome C. GlennCoordinator, Millennium ProjectThe United Nations UniversityWIDER4421 Garrison Street, NWWashington, DC 20016-4055202-686-5179 (Fax & Phone)JGlenn@IGC.ORG (E-mail)(Home Page): HTTP:// NKD.MHPCC-EDU/Millennium/Millennium_Project.HTMLSpecialty Areas/Interests: Generalfutures research; global collaboration infutures research; internationaldevelopment; relation of hard to softscience; training.

John GolmantStatisticianAdministration Office of the U.S. CourtsOne Columbus Circle, NEWashington, DC 20544202-273-2290202-273-2158 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: AR1MAmodelling; forecast caseload filings (e.g.,bankruptcy filings) in the federal courts;seasonal adjustment; structuralmodelling.

W. Vance GrantSpecialist in Education StatisticsNational Library of EducationU.S. Department of Education555 New Jersey Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20208-5721202-219-1659202-219-1696 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Educationstatistics; demographic and economicdata mlated to education.

11

3

Alan B. GriffithEconomistEnergy Information AdministrationEI-432U.S. Department of Energy1000 Independence Avenue, .WWashington, DC 20585202-586-7225202- 586-4913 (Fax)agriffit@eia.doe.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Crude oilprices; crude production/international.

Karen S. HamrickEconomistEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture1301 New York Avenue, NWRoom 928Washington, DC 20005-4788202-219-0789202-219-0391Khamrick@econ.ag.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Laboreconomics; statistical and mathematicalmethods; rural issues, in particular,macroeconomics linkages to the U.S.rural economy.

Manuel HelznerDirectorDivision of Financial AnalysisAdministration for Children and FamiliesU.S. Department of Health and HumanServices1817 Franwall AvenueSilver Spring, MD 20902301-649-3744

T. Crawford HoneycuttEconomistOffice of Integrated Analysis &ForecastingEnergy Information AdministrationU.S. Department of EnergyEI-813Washington, DC 20585202-586-1420202-586-3045 (Fax)choneycu@eia.doe.gov (E-Mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Industrialenergy demand.

Kenneth W. HunterSenior AssociateThe Harrison Program on the FutureGlobal AgendaDepartment of Government and PoliticsUniversity of MarylandCollege Park, MD 20742-8221301-596-4743301-314-7619 (Fax)KWHunter@eworld.com (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Early warningand futures; research uses of forecasts.

William J. HussarEconomistNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Department of Education555 New Jersey Avenue, NWRoom 408JWashington, DC 20208202-219-1682202-219-2061Whussar@inet.ed.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Forecasts ofeducation statistics.

12

Robert E. JarrettSenior FellowU.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute430 Tenth Street, NW, Suite S-206Atlanta, GA 30030404-892-3099, Ext. 271404-892-9381 (Fax)robert.jarrett@aepLatdc.gatech.edu(E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Environmentalissues, including demographic, socio-economic, political, and natural drivers.An emerging concern is environmentalissue conflict as a source of intra- andinternational hostilities.

John JelacicInternational EconomistInternational Trade AdministrationU.S. Department of CommerceRoom H2221Washington, DC 20230202-482-2403202-482-4614 (Fax)John jelacic@ITA.DOC.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: U.S.International Trade & U.S.; worldeconomic growth.

Alberto JerardoEconomistEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of AgricultureRoom 608F1301 New York Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20005-4788202-219-0645202-219-0350 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Interest rates;exchange rates; multivariate time seriesanalysis; state space.

Elias P. JohnsonMathematical StatisticianEnergy Information AdministrationU.S. Department of EnergyRoom 2G-0601000 Independence Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20585202-586-7277202-586-9753 (Fax)ejohnson@eia.doe.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Energyforecasting (coal & petroleum).

Fred JoutzAssociate ProfessorDepartment of EconomicsThe George Washington UniversityWashington, DC 20052202-994-4899202-994-6147 (Fax)fjoutz@gwuvm.gwu.edu (E-Mail)

andOffice of Statistic StandardsEnergy Information AdministrationEI-72U.S. Department of Energy1000 Independence Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20585Specialty Areas/Interests: Energydemand; macroeconomics.

13

15

Jerald KatzoffOperations Research AnalystHealth Resources and ServicesAdministrationU.S. Department of Health and HumanServices5600 Fishers LaneRockville, MD 20857301-443-6326301-443-8890 (Fax)JKATZOFF@HRSA.SSW.DHHS.GOV(E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Physicianworkforce supply and requirements byspecialty.

David KelchTeam LeaderEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture1301 New York Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20005-4788202-: 19-0629202-219-0942 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Europeanagricultural production, consumption,trade and macro variables.

Dr. Robert E. KleinChiefDemographics DivisionU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs810 Vermont Avenue, NWMai !stop 008C11

Washington, DC 20420202-273-5101202-273-5991 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Veteranpopulation estimates and projections;projections of VA beneficiaries.

David KlineSenior Energy ModelerNational Renewable Energy Laboratory1617 Cole Blvd.Golden, CO 80401303-275-4644303-275-4611 (Fax)David_Kline©nrel.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Climatechange economics; large scale energy-economic models; other policy analysisapplications.

Elliot LevyEconomistU.S. Department of CommerceHerbert C. Hoover BuildingRoom 2220Washington, DC 20230202-482-1606Specialty Areas/Interests: Forecastevaluation.

William A. LosawStatisticianDivision of NursingBureau of Health ProfessionsHealth Resource and ServicesAdministrationU.S. Department of Health and HumanServices5600 Fishers Lane, Room 9-21Rockville, MD 20857301-443-6315301-443-8586 (Fax)blosaw@hrsa.ssw.dhhs.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Modelutilization of health manpower and healthcare services; analytical representationsof health care system in addition tostatistical specifications; model utilizationand PC based implementations.

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1 6

Robert H. LottResearch AnalystSocial Security AdministrationOffice of the ActuarySuite 203, Van ness Center4301 Connecticut Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20008202-282-7013202-282-7219 (Fax)rhlott@ssa.gov (E-mai!)Specialty Areas/Interests: Incometransfer; poverty; social welfare.

David LynchEconomistJoint Warfare Analysis Center18385 Frontage Road (J-53)Dahlgren, VA 22448-5500540-653-5068540-653-1860 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interest: Economics;neural nets.

Stanley MillerHealth PlannerU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs810 Vermont Avenue, NW, (54B)Washington, DC 20420202-565-8496202-565-8476 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Health care.

Patricia A. MontgomeryStatisticianBureau of the CensusU.S. Department of CommerceRoom 2356, Building 3Washington, DC 20233301-457-2397301-457-2481 (Fax)pmontgo@census.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areasfinterests; National andstate.

Carl MuhlbauerProgram AnalystU.S. Department of Agriculture14th & Independence Avenue, SWRoom S-6309Washington, DC 20250202-720-9619202-690-4335 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Communitydevelopment; modeling; rural facilities;rural housing needs.

Janemarie Mulvey, Ph.D.Senior AssociateCenter for Health Policy Studies10440 Little Patuxent ParkwayColumbia, MD 21044410-715-9400 or 301-596-3461410-715-9718 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Health;industry analysis; macroeconomics.

Mary NaifehDemographer/StatisticianNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Department of EducationRoom 408A555 New Jersey Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20208202-219-1551202-219-2061 (Fax)Mary_Naifeh@ed.govSpecialty Areas/Interests: Humanpopulations.

15

David L. PeacockAgricultural EconomistEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture1301 New York Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20005-4788202-219-0805202-219-0371DPEACOCK@ECON.AG.GOVSpecialty Areas/Interests: Agriculturalcredit; farm real estate values; farmsector assets; farm sector debt; farmsector income.

Tai PhanStatisticianNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Department of Education555 New Jersey Avenue, NWRoom 408KWashington, DC 20208-5654202-219-1627202-219-2061 (Fax)Tai_phan@ed.gov (E-mail)

David A. PierceSenior StatisticianFederal Reserve BoardMail Stop 401Washington, DC 20551202-452-3895202-452-6433 (Fax)M1DAPOO.FRB.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Time seriesmodels; seasonal fluctuations.

Peggy PodolakSenior EconomistP0-61U.S. Department of EnergyWashington, DC 20585202-586-6430202-586-5391 (Fax)PEGGY.PODOLAK@HQ.DOE.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Employmentprojections; energy consumption;environmental; input-output,macroeconomics; regional analysis;waste-to-energy.

Alan PorterDirectorU.S. Army Environmental Policy Institutedo ISYE, Georgia TechAtlanta, GA 30332-0205404-894-2330404-894-2301 (Fax)alan.porter@isye.gatech.edu (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Technologyforecasting.

R. Michael RayTechnical AdvisorFossil EnergyBartlesville Project OfficeU.S. Department of Energy220 N. Virginia AvenueBartlesville, OK 74003918-337-4403918-337-4418 (Fax)Specialty Areas/Interests: Oil productionusing various technologies--National inscope.

16

Jon ResmussenSupervisory EconomistEnergy Information AdministrationU. S. Department of Energy1000 Independent Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20585202-586-1449202-586-9953 (Fax)JRASMUSS@EIA.DOE.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Financialanalysis of energy sectors.

David H. RichardsonEconomistBureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor2 Massachusetts Avenue, NERoom 3615Washington, DC 20212202-606-6988, Ext. 274202-606-6999 (Fax)RichardD©pol.bls.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Prices,financial interest rates.

Gregory B. RodgersEconomistU.S. Consumer Product SafetyCommission4330 East-West HighwayBethesda, MD 20207301-504-0962301-504-0025 (Fax)

Alan C. RogersAssociate Professor/MathematicsPrince George's Community College1131 University Blvd., WestSilver Spring, MD 20902(301) 649-3361Specialty Areas/Interests: LogisticsArea. Interested in environmentalstatistics and ecological economics.

Vern RoningenEconomic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture1301 New York Avenue, NWRoom 1232Washington, DC 20005-4788202-501-6637202-501-6338 (Fax)VORECON@AOLCOMSpecialty Areas/Interegte Long-termprojections with generalizedspreadsheet-based model building tools(Excel).

Lawrence D. RothmanPrincipal EconomistEconomic and Cost Analysis DivisionCapital/ControllerU.S. Postal Service Headquarters475 L'Enfant Plaza West, SW#8541Washington, DC 20260-5233202-268-4643202-268-2941 (Fax)

Robert ShackletonEconomistEnvironmental Protection AgencyMail Code 2126401 M Street, SWWashington, DC 20460202-260-8958202-260-0512Shackletonsobert@epamail.epa.gov (E-mail)Special Areasfinterests: Climate change;international macro and generalequilibrium; energy, agricultural &forestry econometric & generalequilibrium; long-run growth.

17

Dr. Ethan T. SmithSupervisory HydrologistU.S. Geological Survey417 National CenterReston, VA 22092703-648-5022703-648-5295 (Fax)ETSMITH@USGS.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Strategicplanning; water resources.

Thomas SnyderSupervisory StatisticianNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Department of Education555 New Jersey Avenue, NWRoom 404EWashington, DC 20208202-219-1689202-219-1575 (Fax)Tom_Snyder@ed.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Educationexpenditures, short-term projections.

Kathleen SorensenDemographic StatisticianU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs810 Vermont Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20420-0002202-273-5104202-273-5991 (Fax)Special Areas/Interests: Specialpopulations.

Gregory SpencerChiefPopulation Projections BranchBureau of the CensusU.S. Department of CommerceWashington, DC 20233301-457-2428301-457-2481 (Fax)GSpencer@census.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: U.S.population by age, sex, race, origin,geography, household composition, andnativity; Mortality, fertility, immigration,and household trends.

Betty W. SuEconomistBureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor2 Massachusetts Avenue, NERoom 2135Washington, DC 20212202-606-5729202-606-5745 (Fax)SUB@OEP.PSB.BLS.GOV (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Long-termindustry employment projections.

Daniel WaldoDirectorOffice of National Health StatisticsOffice of the ActuaryHealth Care Financing AdministrationDepartment Health and Human ServicesN3-02-027500 Security Blvd.Baltimore, MD 21244-1850410-786-7932410-786-1295 (Fax)Dwaldo@hcfa.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Health careuse and financing.

Signe I. WetroganChiefAdministrative Records Processing andMethodology ResearchPopulation DivisionBureau of the CensusU.S. Department of CommerceWashington, DC 20233301-457-2461301-457-2481 (Fax)swetroga@census.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Demographicforecast (population and demographiccharacteristics by age, sex, race,ethnicity); data collection.

18

Dan WilliamsAssistant ProfessorBaruch College - CU: IY17 Lexington Avenue, ept F2021New York, NY 100 i Z.1212-802-5983 (Fax & Phone)609-448-3195 (Fax & Phone)dwwbb@cunyvm.cuny.ed ordww10@delphi.com (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Budgetforecasting; medicaid; simple time seriestechniques.

Peter WoloshynSenior Agriculture StatisticianAlberta AgricultureJ.G. O'Donoghue Building7000-113 StreetEdmonton, Alberta, Canada T6H 5T6403-427-4011403-427-5220woloshy@agric.gov.ab.ca (E-mail)Specialty Areas/lnterests: Forecastingfarm cash receipts, expenses, andincome.

Clifford H. Woodruff, IllEconomistBureau of Economic AnalysisU.S. Department of Commerce1441 L Street, NWWashington, DC 20230202-606-9234202-606-5321 (Fax)Clifford.Woodruff@bea.doc.gov (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Econometricforecasting; impact analysis; regionaleconomics; state forecasts.

Peg Young, Ph.D.StatisticianOffice of the Inspector GeneralU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.810 Vermont Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20420202-565-8166202-565-8476 (Fax)pegyoung@ix.netcom.com (E-mail)Specialty Areas/Interests: Combinationof forecasts; forecast tracking; healthcare forecasting; technologicalforecasting; time series analysis.

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Organizational List

Administration Office of the U.S.Courts

John Golmant

Agriculture and Agri-FoodCanada

Lambert Gauthier

Alberta AgriculturePeter Woloshyn

Baruch College-CUNYDan Williams

Center for Health Policy StudiesJanemarie Mulvey, Ph.D.

Coates & Jarret, Inc.Joseph F. Coates

National Renewable EnergyLaboratory

David Kline

Office of Management andBudget

Robert B. Anderson

Prince George's CommunityCollege

Alan C. Rogers

Social Security AdministrationRobert H. Lott

The United Nations UniversityJerome C. Glenn

University of MarylandKenneth W. Hunter

Environmental Protection AgencyJohn P. Foster U.S. Army Environmental PolicyRobert Shackleton Institute

Alan PorterRobert E. Jarrett

Federal Reserve BoardDavid A. Pierce

George Washington UniversityFred Joutz

Joint Warefare Analysis CenterDavid Lynch

U.S. Consumer Product SafetyCommission

Gregory B. Rodgers

U.S. International TradeCommission

William A. Donnelly, Ph.D.

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U.S. Postal ServiceJim BrickeyStephen CristofarLawrence D. Rothman

U.S. Department of AgricultureCarl Muhlbauer

Economic Research ServiceJaime A. CastanedaMark DenbalyKarl GertelRobert M. GibbsKaren S. HamrickAlberto JerardoDavid KelchDavid L. PeacockVern Roningen

U.S. Department of CommerceJohn JelacicElliot Levy

Bureau of the CensusPaul R. CampbellJennifer C. DayKevin E. DeardorffPatricia A. IV ntgomeryGregory SpencerSigne I. Wetrogan

Bureau of Economic AnalysisGeorge DowneyClifford H. Woodruff, Ill

U.S. Department of Education

National Center for EducationStatistics

Michael P. CohenWilliam J. Fowler, Jr.Debra E. GeraldWilliam J. HussarMary NaifehTai PhanThomas Snyder

National Library of EducationW. Vance Grant

U.S. Department of EnergyPeggy Podolak

Energy InformationAdministration

Betty BarlowRonald EarleyAlan B. GriffithT. Crawford Honeycutt'Elias P. JohnsonFred JoutzJon Resmussen

Fossil EnergyR. Michael Ray

U.S. Department of Labor

Bureau of Labor StatisticsAlan EckHoward N. Fullerton, Jr.David H. RichardsonBetty W. Su

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U.S Department of Health andHuman Services

Manuel HelznerJerald KatzoffDaniel Waldo

Bureau of Health ProfessionsStuart BernsteinWilliam A. Losaw

U.S. Department of Interior

U.S. Geological SurveyDr. Ethan T. Smith

U.S. Department of Patent andTrademark Office

Dianne Dickinson

U.S. Department ofTransportation

Marvin Fell

Federal Aviation AdministrationStephen B. Cohen

U.S. Department of Treasury

Internal Revenue ServiceJason J. Fichtner

U.S. Department of VeteransAffairs

Dr. Robert E. KleinStanley MillerKathleen SorensenPeg Young, Ph.D.

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Selected Publications

Agriculture and Agri-Food CanadaFarm Income, Financial Conditions and Government Expenditures Data Book

Alberta AgricultureAlberta Farm Cash Receipts and Income

Coates & Jarret, Inc.Books: Future Work

What Futurists BelieveIssues Management: How to Plan, Organize, and Manage for the Future

Book-length reports: Engineering 2000: A look at the Next Ten YearsForces Shaping the Future of the Engineering and theEngineering Profession

Journals: The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,"The Future: Trends into the 21st Century" July 1992

Newsletters: Tria Future at WorkJosseyBass Publisher

Columns: "From my Perspective" for Technological Forecasting and SocialChange

"One Point of View" for Research, Technological Management

National Renewable Energy LaboratoryAssessment of the Short-Term Potential Contribution of Renewable Energy, inprocess

Prince George's Community College"Cluster Analysis Re leaking Underground Storage Tanks"

The United Nations UniversityFrontiers of Future Studies (1995)

Millennium Project Feasibility Repel z (1995)

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University of MarylandFutures Research Quarterly of World Future Society

U.S. Army Environmental Policy InstituteAnnual Environmental Trend Analyses

Porter, A.L Roper, A.T., Mason, T.W., Rossini, F.A., and Banks, J., Forecastingand Management of Technology, New York: John Wiley, 1991

Porter, A.L., "Technology Assessment: The State of the Art," Impact Assessment,P135-151, 1995.

Porter, A.L., and Detampel. M.J., "Technology Opportunities Analysis,"Technological Forecasting and Social Change, V49, 237-255, 1995

U.S. International Trade CommissionThe Economic Effects of Significant U.S. Import Restraints - Biannual (1995)

U.S. Department of AgricultureAgricultural Income and Finance: Situation and Outlook Report

Farm Business Economics Report

Journal of Agricultural Economics Research

Oil Crops

Structural Models and Automated Alternatives for Forecasting Farmland Prices

U.S. Presidential Baseline

VORSIM Documentation by Vorecon

U.S. Department of Commerce

Bureau of Economic AnalysisBEA Regional Projections to 2045, Volume 1: States

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Bureau of the CensusNational Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, HouseholdProjections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin.

Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to2020

U.S. Department of T:ansportation

Federal Aviation Administration" Application of Intervention Analysis to Product Safety Standards," in Time Series

Analysis, (e.d. O.D. Anderson & M. R. Perryman) North Holland Pub., 1982.

U.S. Department of EducationDisparities in Public School District Spending

Pocket Projections of Education Statistics

Projections of Education Statistics to 2006

U.S. Department of EnergyAnnual Energy Outlook

Benchmark Forecasts

International Energy Outlook

Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers

Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesBiennial Reports to President and Congress on the Status of Health Personnel inthe United States

Health Care Financing Review

Health Personnel in the United States: Eighth Report to the Congress 1991

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U.S. Department of Labor"Foreign Trade Alternatives for Employment and Occupations, 2005," MonthlyLabor Review (1994)

Occupational Projections and Training Data

The American Work Force: 1992-2005

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs"American and British Political Business Cycles: A Time Series Approach" inJournal of Applied Business Research (1992)

"Model Selection and Estimation for Technological Growth Curves" in InternationalJournal of Forecasting (1989)

Projections of Service-Connected Veteran Population

Projections of the U.S. Veteran Population: 1990 to 2010

"Technological Growth Curves: A Competition" in Technological Forecasting &Social Change (1993)

"The Use of Discounted Least Squares in Technological Forecasting" inTechnological Forecasting & Social Change (1985).

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Federal Forecasters DirectoryForm

An important goal of the Federal Forecasters Conference is to prepare a directory ofFederal Forecasters and Forecast Customers. If you wish to be includcd in the directory,please fill out the information requested below.

Name:Title:Agency/Department:Address:City/State/Zip:Phone NumberFax Number:(E-Mail) Address:

Forecast Specialty Areas/Interests:

Forecast Publications/Reports:

Please return form to: Debra GeraldNational Center for Education Statistics555 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Room 408EWashington, DC 20208-5654

Or, Fax to (202) 219-2061 (no cover sheet needed), or send information to e-mail address(Debra_Gerald@ed.gov). Thank you.

For more information, call Debra Gerald at (202) 219-1581.

27

Uted atesDepartrnentoj.Eduöation

Washington, Cr 2[3208-5653

Officid Business..Penalty for private Use, $300

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