9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad , Netherlands 8-9 April 2014

9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad, Netherlands

8-9 April 2014

EFAS Partner (Name of the partner)Report on floods in 2013 & feedback on EFAS alerts and products

9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands

EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2013

Present briefly floods that happened in 2013:

EFAS alerts in 2013: 9 For Hungary: 3 For other countries in the Danube catchment above Hungary: 3 For other countries in the Danube catchment below Hungary: 3

EFAS watch in 2013: 19 For Hungary: 5 For other countries in the Danube catchment above Hungary: 9 For other countries in the Danube catchment below Hungary: 5

Missing alerts in 2013: For Hungary: more than 15 For other countries in the Danube catchment above Hungary: more than 20

Other issues

EFAS FLOOD ALERT AND WATCH REPORTSAccuracy of the flood alert report Number of events affected Hungary (7/9)

Appropriate alert 1False alert 0Appropriate alert, but wrong earliest peak forecast

2

Delayed alert report 4


Accuracy of the flood watch report Number of events affected Hungary (14/19)Appropriate watch report 2False watch report 3Appropriate watch report, but wrong earliest peak forecast

4

Delayed watch report 5

APPROPRIATE EFAS ALERTS IN 2013(an example)

Issued: March 16 2013 09:07

EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Lower Koros section (Danube basin)from Friday 22nd of March 2013 onwards.

Lead time: within 6 days.--------------------------

According to the latest forecasts (2013-03-15 12 UTC) up to 80% EPS (VAREPS) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 2% EPS (VAREPS) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is lower and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable.The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate lower risk for flooding than VAREPS.

The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 24th of March 2013.


Where?

When?

Earliest peak

Catchment of ’Körösök’ is appr. 27500km2 Körösök



Water level exceeded the tresholdof alert level 1,

issued alarm was appropriate



FALSE EFAS WATCH REPORTS IN 2013(an example)

Issued: October 02 2013 07:27 EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Romania - Mures, below Tirnava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 2nd of October 2013 onwards.


According to the latest forecasts (2013-10-01 12 UTC) up to 100% EPS (VAREPS and COSMO) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 0% EPS (VAREPS and COSMO) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is comparable and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable. The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate the same risk for flooding than VAREPS.The earliest flood peak is expected for Thursday 3rd of October 2013.

This message is only an EFAS FLOOD WATCH because - the time to peak is too close


Where?

When?

Earliest peak

Catchment of Maros/Mures is appr. 13000km2 Maros/Mures



There was no flood, false alarm



APPROPRIATE ALERT, BUT WRONG EARLIEST PEAK FORECASTIN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013

(an example)

Issued: March 28 2013 14:28

EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Lower Koros section (Danube basin)from Tuesday 2nd of April 2013 onwards.


According to the latest forecasts (2013-03-28 00 UTC) up to 98% EPS (VAREPS) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 18% EPS (VAREPS) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is comparable and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable.

The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 7th of April 2013.


Where?

When?

Earliest peak

Catchment of ’Körösök’ is appr. 27500km2 Körösök


APPROPRIATE ALERT, BUT WRONG EARLIEST PEAK FORECASTIN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013

(an example)

Water level exceeded the tresholdof alert level 3,

issued alarm was appropriate

not the 1st peakfrom the 2nd of April


APPROPRIATE ALERT, BUT WRONG EARLIEST PEAK FORECASTIN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 – (an example)

DELAYED EFAS ALERTS/WATCH REPORTS IN 2013(an example)

THERE WAS NO ALERT FOR HUNGARY FOR THE DANUBE DURING JUNE! (Just a delayed watch on the 4th of June from the same day)

Issued: May 31 2013 13:27

EFAS predicts a from medium to high probability of flooding for Austria - Danube (Danube basin, valid for downstream parts ) from Monday 3th of June 2013 onwards.


According to the latest forecasts (2013-05-31 00 UTC) up to 94% EPS (COSMO) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 31% EPS (COSMO) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is higher and the DWD deterministic forecast is #lower/comparable/higher#. The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate higher risk for flooding than VAREPS.

The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 3rd of June 2013.


Where?

When?

Earliest peak





MISSING EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2012/2013

February 2013

Sajó/Slana

Catchment of Sajó/Slana is appr. 12500km2

Rába/Raab

Catchment of Rába/Raab is appr. 10000km2


MISSING EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2012/2013

February 2013

EFAS


OTHER ISSUES related to the floods in 2013 that you want to bring up/report:

Issue 1: Legends, description of charts and tables on the homepage ofEFAS should be much more detailed.

Issue 2: Controversial and incorrect data in the reports, such as:

EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.06.04 08:03)’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Danube, section Zala - Drava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 5th of June 2013 onwards. …’

EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.06.04 08:20)’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Serbia - Danube, section Drau - Tisza, section Zala - Drava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 5th of June 2013 onwards. …’

EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.06.04 08:20)’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro - Tisza, section Mures - Tamis and Tisa (Danube basin) from Wednesday 20th of March 2013 onwards. …’

EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.04.08 08:42)EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Romania - Tisza, section Mures - Tamis (Danube basin) from Tuesday 9th of April 2013 onwards.


Thank you for your attention!

OVF Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service


Documents

9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad , Netherlands 8-9 April 2014