Trading Winter Spreads in Fall

Commodity Trader’s Almanac

Volume 4 No. 1 October 2009

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�PitNews.com Magazine October �009 ��

Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 19 for more information.

In this issue...$18,000 to $�,000,000 in 3 Years By: Scott Brown

06

Editor in Chief:Lan H. Turner

Editor: Scott Barriesbarrie@pitnews.com

Managing Editor: Aaron Peckapeck@pitnews.com

National Sales Manager:Erik Akins

Art Director: Matthew Langenheim

Production Manager: Keegan Garrity

Controller: Joseph Chambers

Webmaster: Jacob Anawalt

Website:http://www.pitnews.com

Email:magazine@pitnews.com

Off The Wall By: Gem Using the MACD indicator, along with Moving Averages and Historical Averages Wall contribu-tor Gem, watches the Silver market...14

The Soybean Market By: Scott Barrie The Soybean market appears to be on the cusp of either a major break or a major rally. Both corn and Wheat prices have broken precipitously in the last several months...

04 Farming has always been a challenging pro-fession but in these tough economic times it is even more difficult...

Trading Winter Spreads in the Fall By: Neal Weintraub12 As many of you know this October we are having a Trading Mentor seminar in Las Vegas. I have been asked to talk about Spreads...

Gecko Software In Vegas!

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Lunch is Included!Lan H. TurnerDoc BrownNeal WeintraubEric Akins

Speakers:

800-862-7193 ext. 2Call Now or just Click Here

W ho is Stanley Kroll?Mr. Kroll started trading commodi-

ties in 1959 working for Merrill Lynch. He cut his teeth in the market for twelve years.

Then on July 11, 1971 he took $18,000 and did a remark-able thing. He turned it into $2,985,138 by September 10, 1974.

Then he slipped off to Europe. In fact whenever Stanley would hit a big payday trading commodities he would take a month or two off with his family and travel Europe or sail to some exotic location he loved.

It’s All About LifestyleBut most commodity (and Forex) traders never turn a

little cash into big money. Not because it’s totally doable but because of hard-headedness. Here’s an example Kroll gives:

“I must have bought and given away 40 or 50 copies of this book [Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre], starting in 1961. Who got the first copy? I remember that clearly. I gave the first copy to Paul, one of my earliest and most memorable commodity clients.

It was Paul ’s first commodity trade, and he bought 10,000 bushels (two contracts) of May soybeans at 2.25 in November 1960. By the time May beans hit 3.35 in April of the following year, he had pyramided his original $5,000 and two contracts

into some $80,000 and 45 contracts. What a bonanza, espe-cially for a first-time commodity trader! But as the market kept advancing, Paul got progressively more bullish. His original price objective was 2.85, then 3.20, and by the time it got to 3.35 he was talking 4.00 beans.

His equity topped out at $80,000. Just a few days (and a $30,000 decrease in equity) later, I tried to persuade Paul to close out. ‘ You’ve got $50,000 left — more than you ever imagined it would be. Close out now, and take a trip around the world,’ I told him. But Paul was smarting from the last market drop; he would make that $30,000 back and then close out.

The story has a familiar ending — it happens all the time. Paul ’s remaining $50,000 rapidly disappeared, leaving him with little more than cab fare back to the Bronx (some ‘ride’) and the copy of Reminiscences [of a Stock Operator] I had given him (he should have read it). As a matter of fact, when he tallied up his misadventure, he found that he had suffered a net loss of $7,000, or $2,000 more than his original investment.”

Under-trade in Frequency and Size Here’s a much more intelligent way to approach the chal-

lenge of becoming as wealthy as a speculator…At TradeMentors.com I teach that a family making a net

$100K after tax income can only safely risk $900 each year in derivatives (but that you only need between $300 and $2,000 to trade anyway).

If the head of a family wanted to trade commodities

�PitNews.com Magazine October �009

Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 15 for more information.

Upcoming Trade Mentor’s ConferenceBut, the daily and weekly periodicals aren’t helpful.

This is especially so for those writings that attempt to predict future prices or price trends because, even if the forecast were correct — and that is usually not the case — you’d still have to deal with the problem of whether it’s already been discounted in the market.

So focus on learning to analyze general economic or business conditions so that you yourself can spot market topping and bottoming action.

Forget the television. The flashing green or red lights as credible market buy and sell signals on CNN are simply ridiculous.

To help we’ve decided to create an intensely focused futures, forex, and options trading conference. We will be holding the 1st Annual Trade Mentors conference in Las Vegas in October.

At the conference I’ll be going into the detail of Stanley Kroll’s strategy. Then as an added bonus I’ll be unveiling a secret futures option strategy given to me by a 25 year millionaire futures trader I met on my Mediterranean cruise.

Trading success starts with solid education!

starting with the $5,000 in Kroll’s quote above they would have to wait about 5 ½ years to save it up. But they would be financially safe to roll the dice in the commodity markets because the derivative exposure on their total net worth would not be unduly high.

This gives the family time to learn about futures trading. And, this is important.

The biggest lesson is learning that successful speculation requires you to under-trade, both in terms of the size of your position and the frequency of trades. Let me explain...

I have seen people spend more time and energy “researching” for the purchase of an i-Pod than for a purchase of a stock or an option, futures or Forex contract.

There’s No Luck to Profitable TradingI have seen people spend more time and energy “research-

ing” for the purchase of an i-Pod than for a purchase of a stock or an option, futures or Forex contract. The history of investing is littered with the financial wreckage of many well-intended, would-be speculators.

They subscribe to numerous newsletters that they treat as “tip sheets” buying into recommendations with sizzling stories with about as much forethought as pulling a beer out of the fridge.

The majority of novice stock and stock option investors; as well as futures, Forex, and options traders, suffer brief and expensive lessons on the pitfalls of inept and undisciplined speculation. They wipe out and reluctantly join the social class of former speculators — sadder and poorer but rarely any wiser.

But You Can Succeed!Lan H. Turner and I are firm believers in thorough and

organized preparation for every field of serious endeavor, be it surgery, aviation, or financial investing. We know that the person with a demanding full-time career or profession cer-tainly can’t devote full-time effort to studying and preparing for investing in stock, options, futures, or Forex.

Nevertheless, you can find ways to prepare for speculative market operations to improve your chances of success.

One of the most effective ways to prepare you for serious trading and investing — and we hold this to be a universal way to study to prepare for any new undertaking — is through a careful study through workshops, books and courses dealing with the techniques and methodology of stock investing, options, futures, or Forex trading.

Weighing the Soybean MarketBullish or Bearish

INTRODUCTIONThe Soybean market appears to be on the cusp of either

a major break or a major rally. Both corn and Wheat prices have broken precipitously in the last several months, while Soybean prices have managed to stay static in the face of competing grains making new contract lows.

SOYBEAN PRODUCTION CYCLETypically by this time of the year the harvest effort is well

underway. Typically, in the top producing states – Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, and Ohio – the harvest effort begins in late September and is usually completed by late October, early November. However this year, crop progress is about 2 weeks behind schedule due to late plantings and cold/wet weather. Though the crop is in excellent condition – 67% rated good to excellent currently, 10 points above last year – it is susceptible to a freeze as typically by this time of the year the top producing states usually experience a frost which can kill some of the crop - see FIGURE 1.

Charts courtesy of Track ‘n Trade �.0 Futures. Visit www.TracknTrade.com for a FREE Trial!

By: Scott Barrie

Weighing the Soybean MarketBullish or Bearish

couple of weeks may not seem like much to “city folk”, it could mean all the difference on the farm.

Between mid September (15th) and early November (1st) the top producing Soybean States usually experience their first frost – see FIGURE 1. Frost can damage the soybean crop, reducing yields and production diminish.

The situation is dire. Beginning Stocks- the amount of grain in storage from the last crop year carried over to this crop year – are at a record low. However, acreage planted to Soybeans are at a record high and by default harvested acres are as well – see FIGURE 2.

However, in the advent of an early frost yields could drop precipitously. The current forecasted yield by the USDA is

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In most years, frost is not a real risk. Farmers plan their plantings and harvests to avoid such things. However, the best made plans of mice and men often go awry. This year it was late planting, which has thrown the typical planting through harvest cycle off by a few weeks. Though a

Usual Planting and Harvest Dates For US SoybeansUsual Planting Dates for Soybeans(Top � producing States)

State Begin Planting Most Active

End Begin Harvest Most Active

End

Illinois May 6 May 15 - Jun 9 Jun 16 Sep 23 Oct 1 - Oct 19 Nov 3Iowa May 4 May 14 - Jun 2 Jun 17 Sep 21 Oct 1 - Oct 15 Oct 27Minnesota May 6 May 16 - Jun 3 Jun 23 Sep 25 Oct 4 - Oct 21 Oct 30Indiana May 5 May 15 - Jun 5 Jun 20 Sep 25 Sep 30 - Oct 25 Nov 5Ohio May 5 May 10 - Jun 7 Jun 23 Sep 21 Oct 1 - Oct 22 Nov 10

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42.3 bushels per acre, which happens to coincide with the trend line yield and is just below the 2006/07 record yield of 43.0 bushels per acre – see FIGURE 3. This combina-tion results in record production – see FIGURE 4.

However, traders must remember that this situation can change overnight, especially as the current crop progress is behind schedule and therefore more at risk of a frost than normal, soybean prices may well rise. However in the absence of a frost and record production is achieved prices should surely fall as supply again becomes plentiful. In fact based on the current supply to usage relationship – The Modified Grandmill Method presented in the 2009/10 Grain Trader’s Almanac – November Soybeans have a chance of breaking down to $7.50/bushel. However, a frost could easily send Soybean prices back up to the contract high of $10.99/bushel and beyond, as beginning stocks are at record lows which do not leave any supply cushion.

The ambiguity of the fundamental picture – freeze and reduced supply versus no freeze and an increase in supply – is also readily apparent on the charts.

THE TECHNICAL PICTUREThe technical picture is very mixed. Momentum based

indicators – such as Bull’s & Bear, MACD, and Momentum – are all showing sell signals. Over bought/over sold in-dicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Slow Stochastics (SSTO) are showing oversold. However, the

Figure 1: United States - Average Dates of First Autumn Freeze (3� F)

Figure �: Forecasted Planted and Harvested Acres

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predominant technical picture, using only price itself, is showing ambiguity equal to that from the fundamental side in the form of a massive triangle pattern.

This Triangle Pattern is bounded by a high in mid-June (A) followed by a low in early July (B) coupled with a lower high in mid-August (C) as well as a higher low in mid-September (D) – see figure 5.

Technical lore holds that a triangle pattern is a lot like a spring in terms of physics, meaning it holds potential energy. The amount of potential energy – or the price movement following a break-out of the pattern – is equal to the distance between the lower high and the higher low (points (C) & (D) in figure 5). For November Soybeans this means the difference the lower high of 1063 made on August 13th and the higher low of 894 ½ made on September 14th. The difference yields a break-out objective of +/-168 ½ cents/bu or ultimate price objective of 895 or 1063, basis the November futures contract. The answer to if

FIGURE 3: U.S. SOYBEAN YIELD PER ACRE

FIGURE 4: U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

and broken in only 2 years (2005 & 1999) on a settlement basis. Typically going into this period Soybeans have rallied – as measured by the highest high during the period being

studied minus the entry date – by +39 ¼ cents/bushel (5.8%) and experienced breaks of -17 ¾ cents/bushel (-2.88%). On a closing basis January Soybeans have gained +20 ¼ cents/bushel, which is a very respectable return on margin.

SEASONAL PICTUREThis time of the year, Soybean

tend to rally. The U.S. harvest should be started, with the risk of delays, and South American production has already hit the market. As such, January Soybeans (+S2010F) have tended to increase in price from mid-October through mid-November (see Figure 6). In the last 15 years January Soybeans have increased in 13 years

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FIGURE 6: LONG JANUARY SOYBEANS (+S�010F) ON THE 11TH TO LAST TRADING DAY OF OCTOBER, EXIT ON THE 9TH TO LAST TRADING DAY OF NOVEMBER

FIGURE �: NOVEMBER �009 SOYBEANS (+S�009X)

Charts courtesy of Track ‘n Trade �.0 Futures. Visit www.TracknTrade.com for a FREE Trial!

11PitNews.com Magazine October �009

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CONCLUSIONThe current Soybean situation, unlike many of the grains,

is one of risk. Though the crop is behind schedule, it is in good condition thus far. As such, lacking a freeze prices can go lower, well within the price range (or lower) laid out by the current triangle pattern. However, with the crop behind schedule, the risk to the crop is high and therefore prices could really rally as available supply is very tight which should result in higher prices in the very near future. As such traders should be looking for an upside break-out of the current pattern – which should be followed – and be very hesitant about a down-side break-out, using a tight stop loss as history as well as the natural production cycle of soybeans supports a movement to the upside. But, market action is the final arbitrator and traders should follow our friend the trend, being more cautious to the downside and more aggressive to the upside.

ABOUT THE AUTHORScott Barrie is a former Chicago Exchange Member and Private Hedge Fund Operator. He is also a well respected speaker, author as well as the editor of Pitnews Magazine and a major contributing author. His firm, Commodity Futures and Equity Analytics (CFEA) offers newsletters, as well as consulting services for Individuals, Funds, and Brokerages involved in both Speculation as well as Hedging. For current research and products available from Scott Barrie and CFEA visit www.COMMODITYSEASONALS.com

1�PitNews.com Magazine October �009

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Trading Winter SpreadsIn Fall

By: Neal Weintrab

13PitNews.com Magazine October �009

Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 15 for more information.

type in “Kansas City Board of Trade” into any search engine and off you go.

One item is for sure the exchanges recognize that spread trades have lower volatility and usually present less risk. That is why you should ask for “the Spread Margin.” If there is known, then you know you are not trading a spread, but merely a relationship that you think is correlated. For example, if you think Bonds and Soybeans make a spread---think again. The exchanges see no relationship and will not offer a spread margin.

Buying Strength and Selling Weakness

One of the items I use to consider for Spreads is Pivot Points.

I calculate what contracts are trading above a Pivot Point and what contracts are trading below a particular Pivot Point.

As a spread trader you will buy the bullish contract and sell the bearish one.

With Winter only three months away start paying at-tention to the following spreads:

1. The February/April Cattle Spread-Trade from the long side.

2. .The February /July Hog Spread- Track this Spread look for the July contract to gain on the February. So here you would buy July and sell April. This should happen by April .

We will be talking about other Spread ideas at the October convention. But remember if you plan to attend or not, please download the Winning Winter Spreads booklet.

As many of you know this October we are having a Trading Mentor seminar in Las Vegas. I have been asked to talk about

Spreads. I have taught spread trading at the Chicago

Mercantile Exchange in Chicago for ten years. Spread trading is what top traders use for enhancing large posi-tions and managing risk. It is a well known fact that some of the most successful traders are huge spread traders.

Those of you, who cannot make it to Las Vegas, can download a free booklet on Spread Trading at Pit News. Now be sure you have your printer turned on. The booklet is about forty pages.

Now it is a given that some markets are stronger or more volatile than others. Spread traders simply buy strength and sell weakness.

Spreading is not a risk free procedure. While they do carry less risk than net long or net short positions, a spread can crush your trading account if you are wrong.

Now the question is where do I find good Spread ideas? Well, many are suggested by

newsletters and exchanges. For example iF you visit the Kansas

City Board of Trade. You can create spread charts that compare Kansas City Wheat

with Chicago Wheat. Or Kansas City Wheat with

Chicago Corn. And even Kansas City Wheat with Minneapolis Wheat. Merely

This Month’s Off the Wall Chart comes from Gem:

Pulled off the wall From:The Pitnews.com ForumsVisit The Wall at:Forums at: http://thewall.pitnews.com

The Wall is PitNews.com’s trading forum, found on the web at http://thewall.pitnews.com or from the tab link on the front page of PitNews.com. Each month, we highlight a chart submitted by one of our users.

Get into the action! Start posting on

The Wall, and maybe you’ll see your

article or chart highlighted here in our

next issue of PitNews.com Magazine!

http://thewall.pitnews.com

Using the MACD indicator, along with Moving Averages and Historical Averages Wall contributor Gem, watches the Silver market. With some easy to use Track ‘n Trade tools she contimplates whether the Silver market is about to make a move.

“Is silver ready to breakout?” Gem says.What do you think? Head on over to The Wall to learn and

converse with some great, professional traders.

GENERAL DISCLAIMER: THE DATA CONTAINED HEREIN IS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABIL-ITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. PITNEWS.COM, ITS EMPLOYEES AND CONTRACTORS WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN. THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE NOT NECESSARILY THOSE OF PITNEWS.COM, ITS EMPLOYEES OR AFFILIATES.

DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. SPECULATIVE VEHICLES SUCH AS FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREX MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVEST-MENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDI-TION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES POSITION.

SEASONAL DISCLAIMER: SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MOST CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEA-SONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING, FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN SIMI-LAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST, OR WILL IN THE FUTURE, ACHIEVE PROFITS USING THESE RECOMMENDATIONS. NO REP-RESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE: RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTA-TION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PER-FORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRAD-ING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FAC-TORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFOR-MANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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