8 November 2012The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues Graziers in rangeland areas of central Australia will benefit from widespread rainfall

received this week. Parts of the Western Australian wheat belt have received falls of up to 50 millimetres this

week, which has reportedly delayed the grain harvest in many areas. Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 135 gigalitres this week and

are at 95 per cent of total capacity. October rainfall, averaged across southern Australia, was the lowest on record causing some

expansion of long-term rainfall deficiencies (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 7 November 2012).

Most indicators of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are at neutral levels. The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports)

averaged US$378 a tonne in the week ending 6 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$319 a tonne for the week ending 7 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$622 a tonne in the week ending 6 November 2012, falling from US$640 a tonne in the previous week.

Australian beef and veal exports in October 2012 were 94 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 12 per cent higher than the same time last year. Increased shipments to the United States, Republic of Korea, China and the Philippines offset lower exports to Japan and the Russian Federation.

Australian exports of butter and skim milk powder increased year on year by 20 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, for the September quarter 2012.

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1. Climate

1.1. Notable events

Graziers in rangeland areas of central Australia will benefit from widespread rainfall received this week. These falls are also likely to ease longer term rainfall deficiencies which had developed across central Australia. Some areas had recorded 157 consecutive days without rain.

Parts of the Western Australian wheat belt have received falls of up to 50 millimetres this week. While the rain has reportedly delayed the grain harvest in many areas, it is too early to establish if these falls will result in a reduction in grain quality in unharvested crops.

As the sugar cane crush in northern New South Wales draws to a close, mills are reporting this year’s crop to be the lowest in 40 years, at less than 1 million tonnes. Despite this year’s well below average cane harvest, industry representatives are predicting that record plantings for next year’s crop will see production double within the next two years.

October rainfall, averaged cross southern Australia, was the lowest on record causing some expansion of long term rainfall deficiencies (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 7 November 2012). The low rainfall has contributed to an expansion in the area experiencing low upper layer soil moisture throughout the southwest and southeast of Australia.

Most indicators of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are at neutral levels, although sea surface temperatures in the western and central tropical Pacific Ocean remain slightly warmer than normal. Combined with a declining Indian Ocean Dipole these conditions indicate there is likely to be average seasonal rainfall throughout southern Australia in coming months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ 7 November 2012).

1.2. Rainfall this weekFor the week ending 7 November 2012, rainfall was concentrated across central and southern Australia, with the highest falls recorded in southeast Australia and southern Western Australia. Troughs produced localised thunderstorms across Northern Australia. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 86 millimetres at Canberra, Australian Capital Territory. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 7 November 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 07/11/2012

1.3. Temperature anomalies this weekSpatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 6 November 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 07/11/2012

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 6 November 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 07/11/2012

1.4. October 2012 rainfall

Rainfall percentiles for October 2012

1.5. Rainfall deficienciesMuch of southern interior district of Western Australia and arid regions of South Australia have experienced 6 month rainfall deficiencies in the lowest 5 per cent of records (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 7 November 2012).

Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 April to 30 October 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 08/10/2012

1.6. Rainfall outlookThe rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 8 to 15 November 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 08/11/2012

1.7. October 2012 relative soil moisture percentilesThe maps below show the relative levels of modelled upper (0 to 0.2 metres) soil moisture and lower (0.2 to 1.5 metres) soil moisture at the end of September 2012. These maps show soil moisture estimates relative to the long-term average over the reference period 1961 to 1990.

Upper layer soil moisture for October 2012

The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 0.3 metres of the soil profile and soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.2 metres) is the most appropriate indication of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated events over seasonal and longer time scales.

Lower layer soil moisture for October 2012

2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 135 gigalitres (GL) this week and are at 95 per cent of total capacity. This is 8 percentage points or 1767 GL more than this time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 8 November 2012 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged

US$378 a tonne in the week ending 6 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week. The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged

US$319 a tonne for the week ending 7 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week. The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$622 a tonne in

the week ending 6 November 2012, fallen from US$640 a tonne in the previous week. The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $558 a tonne in the week ending

5 November 2012, unchanged from the previous week and 4 per cent higher than this time last year. Harvest is underway in all Western Australian winter cropping regions. The major bulk handler in Western

Australia, CBH, reported on Monday (6 November 2012) that around 757 000 tonnes of grains and oilseeds had been received to that time.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US80.3 cents a pound in the week ending 7 November 2012, around 2 per cent lower than in the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US19.3 cents a pound in the week ending 7 November 2012, largely unchanged from previous week.

Changes to fruit wholesale prices were mixed in the week ending 3 November 2012 with rockmelon and pineapple (smoothleaf) prices increasing while watermelon (seedless) and strawberry prices were lower.

Vegetable wholesale prices were generally lower in the week ending 3 November 2012 with falls in the prices of pumpkin (grey bulk), tomato (field gourmet), broccoli, iceberg lettuce, cauliflower and peas (green).In contrast, the price of beans (round) increased slightly.

The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400 kg live weight C3) rose by around 2 per cent to 352 cents a kilogram in the week ending 2 November 2012. However, young cattle prices in all other states, except Western Australia, were lower compared with the previous week.

Australian beef and veal production was 553 000 tonnes during the September quarter 2012, 3 per cent higher than the same quarter last year.

Australian beef and veal exports in October 2012 were 94 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 12 per cent higher than the same time last year. Increased shipments to the United States, Republic of Korea, China and the Philippines offset lower exports to Japan and the Russian Federation.

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool averaged 1046 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 1 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered for sale was the highest this season and 31 per cent higher than the previous week.

Australian exports of butter and skim milk powder increased year on year by 20 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, for the September quarter 2012. Exports of whole milk powder and cheese fell by 21 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, over the same period.

3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable pricesWeekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market

3.3. Selected world indicator prices

3.4. Crop indicator prices

3.5. Livestock indicator prices

4. Data attributionClimateBureau of Meteorology Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap /

WaterNew South Wales New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4Queensland Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au seqwater: http://seqwater.com.auSouth Australia SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm

South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/

Victoria Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.auWater trading

Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au

CommoditiesFruit and vegetables

Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.auMutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspxCattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-marketsCanola

Weekly Times: hardcopy