8 FORESIGHT AND ROADMAPPING IN A GLOBAL ORGANIZATION; GLOBAL
BRAINSTORMING EXPERIMENTS
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INITIAL QUESTIONS: 1.Why the foresight/forecasting studies may
be useful for an organization? 2.How the global innovation network
could be used in developing a vision and roadmap for technology in
a company?
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Technology State of the Art (SOA) State of the Market
Technology Strategy of Company Resource Allocation R&D Activity
MARKET FORECAST Production Service Distribution TECHNOLOGY FORECAST
Knowledge, Patents,Licenses TECHNOLOGY MARKET DYNAMICS
FORECASTING
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Technological foresight/forecast: prediction of the future
characteristics of products, machines, procedures, techniques based
on existing inventions, discoveries and concepts. Technological
forecasting is closely related to the life-cycle of technology and
technological generation timing. Four basic elements of a
technological forecast: time of the forecast (within a time
horizon) technology being forecast (scope definition) statement of
characteristics of the technology statement of probability
associated with the forecast
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DELPHI TECHNIQUE*: AN INTRODUCTION TO APPLICATION IN
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING Basic assumptions of Delphi technique
1.Group of experts who are anonymous to each other (there is no
horizontal flow of information) e e e e e e e e L *) First
developed by RAND Corporation, 1964.
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2. Multi-round and iterative collection of opinions 3.
Collecting of opinions combined with information feedback that is
aimed toward consensus. Panel of experts composition General
guidelines/ Rules of thumb: (1) Professional profile proportions
(approx.) Technology experts (scientists, designers, manufacturers,
system engineers etc) ~ 60% Technology users (customers, sales,
services) ~ 20% Social sciences and media (psychologists,
sociologists, journalists etc) ~ 10% Science-fiction writers,
artists, other~ 10% (2) Diversity is recommended in terms of age,
gender, race etc. The more diverse group the better results of
Delphi.
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AN EXAMPLE OF DELPHI-BASED FORECAST FOR GROUND TRANSPORTATION
TOPIC/ EVENT2005 2010 2015 2020 Practical use of superconducting
magnetically levitated railways, speed 500 km/h. Widespread use of
snow-melting systems with stored solar energy on highways
Widespread use of electric vehicles with fuel cells of high energy
conversion efficiencies Practical use of active noise control
devices along roads to absorb traffic noise in the form of
energy
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NISTEP National Institute of Science and Technology Policy
Tokyo, Japan Website:
www.nistep.go.jp/index-e.htmlwww.nistep.go.jp/index-e.html Science
and Technology Foresight Report 2010:
http://data.nistep.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/11035/693/
3/NISTEP-NR140-SummaryE.pdf
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Q 1 M Q 2 IQR Q 1 = Realization time corresponding to the
response at the 25 th percentile (first quartile) of all responses
arranged in chronological order M = Realization time corresponding
to the response at the 50 th percentile (median) of all responses Q
2 = Realization time corresponding to the response at the 75 th
percentile (last quartile) of all responses IQR = Inter-quartile
range of realization time distribution for the half of all
responses (consensus) 25% 50% Graph of Delphi results
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GLOBAL ASPECTS OF FORESIGHT PROJECTS Selection of events of
potential local, regional and global impact broadens the scope of
foresight Global innovation diffusion events can be included Panel
of experts from different countries increases diversity in a Delphi
project Application of foresight information may differ across the
global network Better understanding of potential barriers and
accelerating factors is possible
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Roadmapping for global strategic plans of a company Roadmapping
is a structured process for documenting, evaluating and integrating
the anticipated evolution of technologies, products and markets for
strategic planning in a company. Four layers: 1. Technology roadmap
2. Product roadmap 3. Market roadmap 4. Strategic roadmap Time
frame analysis and time snapshots across those maps identify
opportunities and gaps in planned actions or projects.
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Technology A Technology B Technology C Technology D Product X
Product Y Product Z Strategy Markets Products Technologies 2010
20132020time INTEGRATED ROADMAPPING GRAPH
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Goals of roadmapping process in a global company 1.Identifying
assumptions related to R&D and product development plans
2.Identifying future events that may change current plans
3.Establishing a process for stimulating global business units to
think about what will be needed in the long-term (beyond current
plans) 4.Alignment of strategies across the whole company and
identifying issues that must be addressed 5.Prioritizing investment
proposals and relating them to identified future business
opportunities 6.Enabling and facilitating the data-based revisions
of plans due to changing situations
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Framework for roadmapping in a global company Adapted from:
Cosner, R.R. et al., Integrating roadmapping into technical
planning, Research * Technology Management, 50, 6, 31-48, 2007
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Organizing the roadmapping process in a global company Central
process: Central group, with data provided by business units;
roadmaps consistent, little ownership by business unit
participants, no updates outside the formal cycle. Workshop
approach: Business units assisted by central group in workshops;
roadmaps consistent, business units ownership, difficult to update
outside the formal cycle. Distributed approach: Coordination team
from each business unit, common guidelines; roadmaps easy to
update, champions needed in each business unit, low level of
consistency. Based on: Cosner, R.R. et al., Integrating roadmapping
into technical planning, Research * Technology Management, 50, 6,
31-48, 2007
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Jam is the IBMs term for a massively parallel conference
online. i.e. world-wide brainstorming. The Innovation Jam took
place in two three-day phases in 2006. We tracked the projects that
received $100 million in funding based on the Jams results the data
shows that the Jam was successful to a considerable degree. It
uncovered and solved problems in and mobilized support for
substantial new ways of using IBM technology. It involved 150,000
IBM employees, family members, business partners, clients (from 67
companies) and university researchers. Participants jammed from 104
countries, and conversations continued 24 hours a day. Results:
Participants posted more than 46,000 ideas. 25 big ideas have been
identified. $100 million in funding have been assigned for 10 new
business units. IBMs Innovation Jam (2006). Example of
crowd-sourcing. Excerpts from: Bjelland, O. M., Chapman Wood, R.,
An inside view of IBMs innovation jam, MIT Sloan Management Review,
Fall 2008, 32-40. [ABI/ProQuest] The goal of that jam: How to
commercialize the IBM technology breakthroughs successfully, how to
get the new technologies to the market more quickly? In March 2010,
a global brainstorming was conducted for the U.S. A.I.D. and 20
other sponsors with 7,000 participants. Update 2014: New
institution at the U. N.:
http://www.unglobalpulse.org/http://www.unglobalpulse.org/ Annual
report: http://www.unglobalpulse.org/2013-Annual-Report.
UPDATES:
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OTHER GLOBAL COLLABORATIVE INITIATIVES BASED ON VOLUNTARY
CONTRIBUTIONS, CROWDSOURCING, BRAINSTORMING Project Gutenberg
(since 1971) March 2014, Project Gutenberg: over 46,000 items in
its collection. Free access and retrieval to e-books. Distributed
Proofreaders: an Internet-based community for proofreading scanned
texts. www.gutenberg.org Zooniverse Project/ Galaxy Zoo (since
2007) Picture and pattern classifications Citizen Science project;
more than 200,000 active participants www.zooniverse.org
http://www.galaxyzoo.org/?utm_source=Zooniverse%20Home&utm_medium=Web&
utm_campaign=Homepage%20Catalogue#/story Global Brain Institute
(since 2012); Discussion Group Free University Brussels, Belgium
https://sites.google.com/site/gbialternative1/home
http://karol-pelc.blogspot.com/http://karol-pelc.blogspot.com/; K.
Pelc Global Brain: A Dual Metaphor 2011.
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SUMMARY 1.Technological forecasting and foresight concepts
2.Delphi method for foresight 3.Global foresight projects
4.Roadmapping for global strategic plans of a company 5.Mass scale
brainstorming, crowdsourcing experiments, global voluntary
initiatives
