Upload
shaunnd1
View
225
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 1/9
By Steve Briese, Saturday, January 14, 2012
Based on the Commitments of Traders tabulated Tue, January 10, 2012 released Fri, January 13, 2012.
Commercial selling triggered a COT Fisher sell signalwarning. These progress to actual sell signals in 95%of cases. Combined with last week's minor sell signalin Dow futures, we expect a resumption in the major
downtrend. Stock indexes are in weak hands with bothlarge trader groups net short and only small tradersholding more long than short contracts This providesplenty of long-liquidation fuel for the next downleg.
Both trend-following CTAs and counter-trend-trad-ing commercials set new all time records, keeping theDollar Index speculatively overbought in the extremeThis condition is not unusual in a major uptrend--note
the textbook COT Index bull market pattern (circled).There is no telling how overbought a bull trend maybecome before an eventual correction. A trailing stop-loss can help in holding longs for maximum gains.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Statements andrecommendations are subject to the limitations inherent in market analysis and may be changed without notice. No claim is made that futurrecommendations will be as profitable as past performance or that they will not result in losses. All trade references should be considered hypotheticalThis report should be considered provisional; check Monday's Bullish Review newsletter for complete analysis.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING. Those using this information are responsible for their own actions.
© 2012 Insider Capital Group • 362 Gulf Breeze Pkwy • Gulf Breeze, FL 32561 • www.InsiderCapital.com
Tel 1-888-423-4950 850-677-1966 • Fax: 1-850-677-3521 • Re transmittal or duplication in any form is illegal and strictly prohibited.
STOCK INDEXES COT 43% 5 DOLLAR INDEX COT 0% 1
Charts on the first two pages are sector com-posites, which will not agree with the indi-vidual market COT Indexes listed on page 3.
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 2/9
Commercials were sellers on strength--their normalpattern--keeping the COT Index in bull market mode.High prices & Fed manipulation make risk / reward un-attractive, suggesting we stand aside Treasury futures.
There was very little movement in net positions. CTAsremain heavily exposed net long, making the preciousmetals sector vulnerable to deep, cascading declineswhen the primary bear trend resumes.
Commercials were net sellers for the week, triggeringa major COT sell signal. We expect a COT sell signal torestart the downtrend. The huge overhanging CTA netlong position creates the potential for a large decline.
Continued commercial selling triggered a COT-Fishesell signal warning, suggesting the next leg of theprimary downtrend off the September 9, 2011 majoCOT sell signal is beginning.
January 13, 2012 Bullish Review Page 2
TREASURYS COT 14% 4 OIL COMPLEX COT 5% 13
PRECIOUS METALS COT 92% 8 SOY COMPLEX COT 63% 7
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 3/9
January 13, 2012 Bullish Review Page 3
>> = COT Extreme Level (COT Index above 90% or below 5%)
> = COT Extreme Movement (plus or minus 40 point change in COT Index within last six weeks)
COT INDEXES (Futures + Options)COMMERCIAL HEDGER LARGE SPECULATOR SMALL TRADER LAST
SYMBOL 10. Jan. 2012 CHANGE 10. Jan. 2012 CHANGE 10. Jan. 2012 CHANGE COMMENT
INDEXES
CRB 75% -6 23% +4 17% +9 #874
> DowInd 35% +1 48% -5 90% +11 #876
NASDAQ 25% -4 69% +8 70% -17 #876
NIKKEI 86% -1 6% -4 57% +7 #838
S&P500 51% -1 38% -4 64% +8 #876
METAL> GOLD 86% -8 11% +5 30% +14 #876
COPPER 83% -3 15% 0 25% +10 #860
>> PLATIN 90% -1 12% +1 6% -1 #870
SILVER 85% -10 12% +5 16% +16 #872
CURRENCY
> AUSSI$ 34% -10 67% +7 52% +11 #873
POUND 66% +3 38% -2 15% -5 #875
>> CANAD$ 96% 0 0% -2 28% +14 #875
>> EUROFX 100% 0 0% 0 19% +3 #875
>> $INDEX 0% -1 94% 0 96% +6 #871
>> YEN 5% -3 98% +2 72% +6 #874
Kiwi $ 36% -16 64% +10 59% +24 #866
PESO 88% -4 10% +3 26% +4 #866
>>SWISS 100% +2 9% +4 0% -6 #875
FINANCIAL
3MO-ED 85% -9 9% +5 45% +33 #836
>> 5YR-TN 0% -9 93% +14 88% +3 #874
2YR-TN 44% 0 38% +3 81% -9 #870
10Y-TN 28% +1 82% +6 65% -15 #874
30Y-TB 40% +2 45% -5 82% +3 #874
GRAIN
SB-OIL 59% -4 44% +8 23% -9 #876
CORN 47% 0 48% -2 47% 0 #872
KC-WHT 57% +1 42% -2 35% +2 #859
MN-WHT 35% +18 76% -16 46% -19 #774
>> OATS 91% +5 23% -6 11% +5 #835
>> RRICE 100% +2 0% -3 29% +3 #829
SBeans 58% -4 49% +7 40% -12 #858
S-MEAL 77% -8 21% +7 25% +10 #870
WHEAT 87% +5 8% -10 31% +15 #859
MEAT
FEEDER 29% -5 75% -4 42% +17 #865
CATTLE 70% +7 23% -8 83% +5 #865
> HOGS 57% +5 41% -6 73% +5 #865
FOOD/FIBER
>> COCOA 92% -1 4% -3 37% +21 #851
> COTTON 56% -7 42% +10 53% -3 #865
COFFEE 86% 0 17% -1 14% +5 #859LUMBER 80% +2 18% -7 75% +15 #876
OJ 63% +6 36% -6 56% -1 #871
>> SUGAR 96% +10 5% -9 6% -10 #862
PETROLEUM
CRUDE 18% -12 80% +9 77% +14 #871
H-OIL 26% -11 44% -7 100% +31 #870
NATGAS 42% -15 69% +17 25% -1 #821
Gasoli 8% -6 88% +6 84% +5 #686
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 4/9
January 13, 2012 Bullish Review Page 4
CURRENCIES
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR BRITISH POUND
CANADIAN DOLLAR EURO CURRENCY
JAPANESE YEN SWISS FRANC
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 5/9
January 13, 2012 Bullish Review Page 5
FINANCIAL & INDEXES
S&P 500 DOW 30 INDEX
NASDAQ 100 INDEX NIKKEI 225 INDEX
10-YEAR T-NOTES 30-YEAR T-BONDS
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 6/9
January 13, 2012 Bullish Review Page 6
METALS
GOLD SILVER
PLATINUM PALLADIUM
COPPER LUMBER
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 7/9
January 13, 2012 Bullish Review Page 7
ENERGY & LIVESTOCK
CRUDE OIL HEATING OIL
RBOB GASOLINE NATURAL GAS
LIVE CATTLE LEAN HOGS
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/79527685-bullish-review-first-look-jan-12-2012 8/9
January 13, 2012 Bullish Review Page 8
GRAIN & SOY
CORN SOYBEANS
WHEAT SOYMEAL
OATS SOYBEAN OIL
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions