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75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

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Page 1: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land
Page 2: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

75% water

25% land

½ is too dry or too coldfor large-scale

agriculture

75% of world populationlives along a river or

a coastline. . .or 5% of the land area

½ of a ½ of a ¼Or. . .

Page 3: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation concentrations

1. EASTASIA

2. SOUTHASIA

3. EUROPE

4. SOUTHEASTASIA

5. NORTHEASTNORTH

AMERICA

Page 4: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation density

Arithmeticdensity

# peopletotal land area=

Longwood University campus – 7,994 students/sq. mi.

Arithmetic

Density

Total Population Total Area (persons/

(c. 2011) (square miles) square mile)

Bangladesh 149,772,364 56,976 2,629

Netherlands 16,676,126 16,164 1,032

India 1,210,193,422 1,222,559 990

China 1,339,724,852 3,696,117 362

Virginia 2000 7,078,515 39,597 179

Virginia 2010 8,001,024 39,597 202

United States 308,745,538 3,531,905 87

World 7,072,887,517 57,505,734 123

D. Hardin

Page 5: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation density

Physiologicdensity

# peopletotal arable land=

Agriculturaldensity

# peopletotal farmed land=

Arithmetic Physiologic

Density Density

Total Population Total Area Arable Land (persons/ (persons/

(c. 2011) (square miles) (square miles) square mile) square mile)

Bangladesh 149,772,364 56,976 30,502 2,629 4,910

Netherlands 16,676,126 16,164 4,118 1,032 4,050

India 1,210,193,422 1,222,559 610,601 990 1,982

China 1,339,724,852 3,696,117 419,469 362 3,194

Virginia 2000 7,078,515 39,597 12,705 179 557

Virginia 2010 8,001,024 39,597 12,705 202 630

United States 308,745,538 3,531,905 658,304 87 469

World 7,072,887,517 57,505,734 16,000,049 123 442

D. Hardin

Page 6: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation density

Carrying Capacity:The ability of a given amount of landTo support a given number of people

At a given level of technology

D. Hardin

Page 7: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation density

D. Hardin

Egypt 2011Population – 80,410,017

Total Land Area – 390,117 sq. mi.Arable Land – 12,873 sq. mi. (3.3%)Farmed Land 1,950 sq. mi. (0.5%)

Arithmetic Density206 persons/sq. mi.

(just a bit higher than Virginia)

Egypt

Page 8: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation density

D. Hardin

Physiologic Density:6,246 persons/sq. mi.

Egypt

Agricultural Density:41,236 persons/sq. mi.!

Page 9: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation change

D. Hardin

TP = OP + B – D + I - ETotal

PopulationOriginal

PopulationBirths Deaths

Immigra-tion

Emigra-tion

NaturalPopulation

Change Migration

Page 10: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation change

D. Hardin

Rates of change

Highest – Niger: 3.52%Lowest – Moldova: -0.68%

World average – 1.1% (down from 1.2%)

It’s all in the numbers. Take two countries with identical growth rates (.42%)…

Grenada: 105,303 X .42% = 442 people annually

China: 1,353,600,687 X .42% = 5,685,122 people annually

World: 7,072,887,517 X 1.1% = 77,801,762 people annually

That’s 70% of the population of Virginia every year!

That’s nearly 10Virginias every year!

Page 11: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation change

D. Hardin

2000

2050

2000 2050

Page 12: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Time

Birth rate

Death rate

Totalpopulation

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 5

D. Hardin

Stage 4

Page 13: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation Pyramids

D. Hardin

Page 14: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition & population pyramids

Time

Birth rate

Death rate

Totalpopulation

D. Hardin

Stage 1

Page 15: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 1

D. Hardin

Page 16: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATION

Time

Birth rate

Totalpopulation

Stage 1 Stage 2

D. Hardin

Death rate

Demographic Transition & population pyramids

Page 17: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 2

Nigeria

Libya

Iraq 2003

Page 18: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 2

D. Hardin

[Youth serves the Fuhrer]

Page 19: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

D. Hardin

IndustrialRevolution

MedicalRevolution

Hans Rosling video

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
Page 20: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Time

Birth rate

Death rate

Totalpopulation

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

D. Hardin

Page 21: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 3

Israel

India

Egypt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S-PR_TZGmA&feature=player_detailpage
Page 22: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 3

Page 23: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 3

Page 24: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 3

Page 25: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 3

Page 26: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 3

2000s

1980s

1990s

1970s

Brazil

Page 27: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

1-2 3-4 5-6 6-7 >70

10

20

30

40

50

60

Grandparents

Parents

You

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 3

NUMBER OF CHILDREN IN THE LAST THREE GENERATIONS

Percentage

Page 28: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Time

Birth rate

Death rate

Totalpopulation

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

D. Hardin

Stage 4

Page 29: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 4

UnitedStates

Australia

Canada

Page 30: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

D. Hardin

Social Security decreasespoverty among the elderly…

Per capita Social Security expenditures and poverty rate for 65+, 1959-2009

…while allowing seniorstheir independence…

…and creating thenuclear family.

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 4

http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/files/images/orig/Poverty_soc-sec-spending-and-elderly-poverty_all-years_3.png
http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/files/images/orig/Poverty_soc-sec-spending-and-elderly-poverty_all-years_3.png
Page 31: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Time

Birth rate

Death rate

Totalpopulation

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 5

D. Hardin

Stage 4

Page 32: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Stage 5

Japan

Germany

Switzerland

Page 33: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

GermanyStage 5

Germany's Demographic Transition1900-2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Bir

ths/

dea

ths

per

1,0

00

Crude birth rate Crude death rate

1972

WW I Hitler’s baby

boom WW II Stage 2moving to

Stage 3

Page 34: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

D. Hardin

Germany’s “Guest Workers”Stage 5

Page 35: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 5

D. Hardin

Germany’s “Guest Workers”

Page 36: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Stage 5

D. Hardin

Germany’s “Guest Workers”

Page 37: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic TransitionU.S. population pyramids

D. Hardin

Page 38: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Ageing U.S. population

D. Hardin

Page 39: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Ageing U.S. population

D. Hardin

Page 40: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONPopulation change

D. Hardin

TP = OP + B – D + I - ETotal

PopulationOriginal

PopulationBirths Deaths

Immigra-tion

Emigra-tion

NaturalPopulation

Change Migration

Page 41: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

D. Hardin

POPULATION

"Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me.

I lift my lamp beside the golden door."

MigrationImmigration

Page 42: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

D. Hardin

POPULATION

Average Migrant Profile

• Young – average in the 20s (age most willing to do hard, distasteful work)

• Educated – average some high school; the best and brightest coming to US (“brain drain”)

• Motivated – decision to migrate is more than the average

person is willing to risk; willing to endure hardship so their children will have better lives (“American

Dream”)

MigrationImmigration

Page 43: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

D. Hardin

POPULATIONMigration

Immigration

Population Pyramids for Hispanic Citizens and Immigrants in Virginia, 2006

Page 44: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

United States

Mexico

San Diego

San Ysidro

Tijuana

D. Hardin

POPULATIONMigration

ImmigrationU.S.-Mexico border

Page 45: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

D. Hardin

MigrationPOPULATION

Hispanic population: US

Page 46: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

MigrationPOPULATION

Hispanic population: VA

D. Hardin

Europe22%

Asia45%

Other8%

Latin America25%

1990

Europe15%

Asia42%

Other10%

LatinAmerica33%

2000

Europe12%

Asia41%

Other11%

LatinAmerica36%

2010

Region of Birth for Virginia’s Foreign Born

Page 47: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

MigrationPOPULATION

Hispanic population: VA

D. Hardin

Page 48: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

MigrationInternal

POPULATION

D. Hardin

Page 49: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATION

D. Hardin

MigrationInternal

Page 50: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATION

D. Hardin

MigrationInternal

Page 51: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATION

D. Hardin

MigrationPolitical geography

Page 52: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

POPULATIONDemographic Transition

Time

Birth rate

Death rate

Totalpopulation

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 5

D. Hardin

Stage 4

Page 53: 75% water 25% land ½ is too dry or too cold for large-scale agriculture 75% of world population lives along a river or a coastline... or 5% of the land

D. Hardin

Time

High

Low


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