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Ditjen SDPPI – Kementerian Kominfo
Building The Mobile Broadband Ecosystem for The 700MHz APT Band at GSMA Mobile Expo 2013
700 MHz Digital Dividend
Acceleration Study
Dr. DENNY SETIAWAN Deputy Director, Fixed and Land Mobile Services
Directorate of Spectrum Policy and Planning
Director General of Resources and Standard (DG SDPPI)
Ministry of Communication and IT
Shanghai, 27 June 2013
INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPLY GOAL:
National Mid-term Development Plan (RPJMN) : 30% coverage
population has broadband access.
Broadband access:
• > 256 kbps (OECD, White Paper BWA 2008).
• > 512 kbps (ASEAN ICT Masterplan) .
88% District Capitals of 33 Provinces in Indonesia
Master Plan of Acceleration of Indonesia Economy Development
Acceleration (MP3EI) 7 corridor growth areas, 50% districts
(Kabupaten/Kota) by the year 2014.
National Broadband Plan Policy (2009-2014) 28/06/2013
Ditjen SDPPI – Kementerian Kominfo 2
MP3EI: Master Plan of Economic Development Growth Area Acceleration 2025, 7 corridors in major islands
2012 2015 2020
AREA-1 256 kbps 2 Mbps 4 Mbps
AREA-2 256 kbps 1 Mbps 2 Mbps
AREA-3 256 kbps 512 kbps 1 Mbps
AREA-4 256 kbps 256 kbps 512 kbps
Population : 234.2 million No of villages `77,000 No of islands 17,508
Source : WG 4G Indonesia 3
Draft of Indonesia National Broadband Plan
Palapa Ring (Initial concept)
Total Underwater cable 35.280km
Total land cable 21.807 km
Palapa Ring First Stage Total new FO > 10.000 km Total cost : 300 juta US dolar
Source: MCIT Indonesia
PALAPA RING, National Fiber Optic Backbone and Backhaul
(c) Ministry of Communication and Information technology of Republic of Indonesia
Implementing PALAPA RING as a broadband national backbone and backhaul
Services Unit 2004 2009 2010 2014 *
1. Telephone
Fixed Line Unit 8,703,218 8,423,973 8,429,180 8,429,180
Mobile Line Unit 32,009,688 190,062,615 200,636,587 222,853,663
Total Line Unit 40,712,906 198,486,588 209,065,767 307,145,463
Teledensity Per 100 inhabitants 18,82 86,06 89,79 100
2. Internet
Subscriber Person 1.087,428 2,000,000 2,700,000 7,000,000
User Person 11,226,143 30,000,000 45,000,000 130,000,000
3. Broadband
Subscriber Person 84,900 4,520,000 7,290,000 17,000,000
*) Estimated
Ref : MASTEL, 2012 ICT Outlook 5 INDONESIA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON MOBILE BROADBAND
INDONESIA ICT STATISTIC
6
Impact of Broadband Towards Social and Economy
Source: ITU, 2012
• Increase of 10% broadband penetration may reduce 0.06% unemployment rate (Brazil).
• Increase of 10% broadband penetration may increase 0.09 % GDP (Chile).
• Increase of 1% “household” broadband penetration may reduce 8.61% unemployment rate (Indonesia).
Source: Impact broadband to the economy (ITU study) 2012
World Bank Study 1,38 persen
increase of GDP for each 10 %
increase of broadband
penetration.
In Indonesia, with 10%
average penetration of 3G
services (2008-2011),
additional of 10 of 3G services
layanan 3G per 100
connection, can increase 1.5%
GDP per capita
Source : GICT Dept. World Bank.
Source: Deloitte 2011-GSMA
Spectrum Crunch Exponential growth of data traffic (Ipad, Iphone, tablet,
android, etc)
Demand spectrum mobile broadband:
ITU-R Report M.2078, need additional 1280 – 1700 MHz bandwidth by
the year of 2020
FCC-US and OFCOM-UK : need additional 500 MHz by the year 2020
Australia: need additional 150 MHz in year 2015, additional 150 MHz in
year 2020. Currently 800 MHz
Indonesia: currently is only around 425 MHz effective bandwidth.
Band < 1 GHz (including Digital Dividend 700 MHz most optimum option of capacity and coverage)
Band > 1 GHz (in major market areas), including WiFi class-licensed for off-loading
Ditjen SDPPI – Kementerian Kominfo
28/06/2013
7
Spectrum Crunch (continued) Current situation:
Unbalanced bandwidth distribution :
• CDMA operators : 4 Operator @ < 2 x 5 MHz, 1 operator 2 x 11.9 MHz
• GSM/UMTS/HSPA operators
– 2 operator @ 2 x 40 MHz, 2 operator @ 2 x 25 MHz, 1 operator 1 x 20
MHz
– 2 operator do not have 900 MHz (coverage)
– In 1800 MHz and 2.1 GHz, some portion of band do not contiguous
Mixed Band Plan: GSM900 vs CDMA 850, UMTS 2100 vs PCS1900
To fulfill the increase data traffic demand:
Increasing number of tower
Bandwidth increase
Increasing bit efficiency of technology (2G->3G->4G)
Ecosystem is very important (3GPP, LTE, IEEE, global standard, etc)
Ditjen SDPPI – Kementerian Kominfo
28/06/2013
8
Proposed Policy and Strategy
Encouraging Below 1 GHz Mobile Broadband
4 CDMA 850 MHz operators @ 5 MHz...(do not support enough
capacity for Mobile Broadband, while it is very good in coverage
compared the other higher frequencies).
Encourage HSPA 900 MHz spectrum refarming deployment (by
allowing technology neutrality)
Encourage Network Sharing to improve efficiency on infrastructure, but still maintain competition in services
Encourage more flexible use of spectrum: MVNO, spectrum sharing, infrastructure sharing, spectrum swap, spectrum aggregate, spectrum leasing etc
Need to improve policy and regulation
28/06/2013
Ditjen SDPPI – Kementerian Kominfo 9
Source : Author
10
Spectrum Crisis in relation with Capex and Opex of Networks
To resolve “spectrum crunch“ of
increasingly significant traffic of mobile
broadband, three solutions are provided:
• Additional Spectrum Bandwidth
• Increase Efficiency of Spectrum with the use of
technology upgrade with the latest technology
• Increasing number of tower site
The bigger spectrum provided, the
bigger saving of capex and opex of
Mobile Broadband provisions
Source : Pemodelan Akselerasi Implementasi Digital Dividend di Indonesia (Denny Setiawan, 2013)
MOBILE BROADBAND EVOLUTION PATH TOWARDS LTE
11
Semua teknologi selular, baik GSM, CDMA, maupun Wimax pada akhirnya akan
berevolusi menjadi menuju satu teknologi masa depan : LTE (Long Term Evolution)
Mobile Broadband Band (Existing and Future Potential)
Ditjen SDPPI – Kementerian Kominfo
Band Bandwidth Current Use
450 – 470 MHz 2 x 7.5 MHz Mobile Cellular (CDMA)
694 – 820 MHz 2 x 45 MHz Analog TV (Potential of Digital Dividend LTE 700 MHz)
825 – 845 dan 870 – 890 MHz
2 x 20 MHz FWA and Mobile Cellular (CDMA)
890 – 915 dan 935 – 960 MHz
2 x 25 MHz Mobile Cellular (GSM)
1710 – 1785 dan 1805 – 1880 MHz
2 x 75 MHz Mobile Cellular (GSM)
1903.125 – 1910 dan 1983.125 – 1990 MHz
2 x 8.675 MHz Mobile Cellular (PCS-1900/CDMA)
1920 – 1980 dan 2110 – 2170 MHz
2 x 60 MHz Mobile Cellular (UMTS)
2300 – 2390 MHz 90 MHz
Broadband Wireless Access. 2360 – 2390 MHz licensed issued for 15 Regional Zones (Wimax / LTE TDD)
2500 – 2690 MHz
2 x 15 MHz BWA (TDD)
150 MHz 2520 – 2670 MHz is currently used by Broadcasting Satellite Services
12
700 MHz Digital Dividend
13
14
192 MHz
TV Analog Free To Air (FTA) Reception
478 806 MHz 328 MHz
112 MHz
PROSES DIGITALISASI PENYIARAN
ANALOG TV
TV Digital Terestrial Free To Air (FTA) Reception
526 694
Future DTV
DIGITAL DIVIDEND
478 806 MHz
DIGITAL TV
• LTE 700 MHz will be very important for Broadband development acceleration in 7 Corridors Areas MP3EI particulary Rural Areas with only using the existing 2G sites
• Unfortunately, it’s only available after Digital Switchover at the end of 2017
Source : Pemodelan Akselerasi Implementasi Digital Dividend di Indonesia (Denny Setiawan, DTE, FT-UI, 2013)
DIGITAL DIVIDEND 700 MHz
Digital Switchover Schedule Worldwide
Sumber: OFCOM (2011). International Communications Market Report.
15
DVB-T2 MPEG4 IMPLEMENTATION
Digital TV Quality Compression Range (Mbps) Typical Bitrate
(Mbps)
SDTV MPEG-2 2 to 5 3
SDTV MPEG-4 1.5 to 2 1,5
HDTV MPEG-2 15 to 20 16
HDTV MPEG-4 5 to 10 8
DVB-T2
IMPLEMENTATION
Fixed rooptop reception
MFN (UK Mode)
Fixed rooptop reception
limited area SFN (GE06
allotment)
Fixed rooptop reception
large area SFN
1 3a 3b
Bandwidth 8 MHz 8 MHz 8 MHz
FFT mode 32k 32k 32k
Carrier mode Extended Extended Extended
Scattered Pilot Pattern PP7 PP4 PP2
Guard Interval 1/128 (28 ms) 1/16 (224 ms) 1/8 (448 ms)
Modulation 256-QAM 256-QAM 256-QAM
Code rate 0,67 0,67 0,67
C/N 18.9 dB 19.6 dB 20.0 dB
Data Rate 40.2 Mbps 37 Mbps 35.5 Mbps
16
Market Share of Analog TV Broadcaster Market Share Major Commercial
National TV only Market Share of all TV Broadcaster
RCTI 16,7% 16,3%
SCTV 15,7% 15,3%
Trans7 13,7% 13,4%
MNCTV 11,8% 11,5%
Trans 7 9,8% 9,6%
IVM 9,8% 9,6%
Global TV 7,8% 7,6%
ANTV 6,9% 6,7%
tvOne 4,9% 4,8%
MetroTV 2,9% 2,9%
TV Lokal 2,50%
Total 100% 100,0%
17
Source : Pemodelan Akselerasi Implementasi Digital Dividend di Indonesia (Denny Setiawan, DTE, FT-UI, 2013)
TV Receiver Penetration Rate in Indonesia
TV Receiver Penetration Rate: 57% Household,
Number of Household in Indonesia: 61,2 million HH (based on data from Bureau Statitics in year 2010)
18
Source : Pemodelan Akselerasi Implementasi Digital Dividend di Indonesia (Denny Setiawan, DTE, FT-UI, 2013)
Schedule of Digital Switchover in Indonesia (1/2)
19
Source : Pemodelan Akselerasi Implementasi Digital Dividend di Indonesia (Denny Setiawan, DTE, FT-UI, 2013)
Schedule of Digital Switchover in Indonesia (2/2)
20
Source : Pemodelan Akselerasi Implementasi Digital Dividend di Indonesia (Denny Setiawan, DTE, FT-UI, 2013)
DIGITAL TV INDUSTRY MODEL (in one service area)
21
Digital TV Multiplex Licensing Areas (in 15 Regional Zones)
22
Digital TV Service Area and Digital TV Multiplex License Areas
23
Digital Switchover Schedule and Number of TV License in each area
24
Broadcasting Saving Cost Benchmarking of Total Capex Opex Mux
Benchmarking of Num of TV Program Channel
25
*In Million Rupiah, 1USD=9900Rupiah(IDR)
Broadcasting Saving Cost
26
Benchmarking of Capex Opex per TV Broadcasting Programme Channel
Broadcasting Saving Cost (Electricity)
27
Benchmarking of Electricity Consumption for 700 TV Tx Nationwide
(in Rp. Millions, 1USD=9,900 Rupiah(IDR))
Problems and Facts
Delaying the Digital Switch-over and Licensing 700 MHz for Mobile Broadband until year 2018 compared with the Facilitating Digital Dividend in the end of 2014 will be very significantly impact the social and economy growth of Indonesia (BCG Report, 2010)
Decreas of GDP increase projection : 54%
Decrease of Government Income from Tax and others ; 69%
Decrease of Job Creation : 78%
From All Spectrum Licensing Fess collected, the fund proportion given back for the ICT industry currently only maximum 6,75% of total almost Rp. 10 Triliun (1 USD Billion). Most of 90% Spectrum Licensing Fees collected from Mobile Cellular license fess.
In US, there are initiative from FCC to release more spectrum for Mobile Broadband with the Incentive Auction, compensating the incumbent with the portion of the result of the spectrum auction fees.
Supreme Court has decided to review the Ministrial Decree 22/2011 about the Free to Air Digital TV, make more complicated, step backward
28
Proposed Strategy Clearing up both 700 MHz with intervention from Government
Utilizing the satellite infrastructure for distribution with cheap free-to-air Satellite
Distribution in non major city commercial areas operated by Independent Multiplex
700 MHz Digital Switchover Acceleration
Looking for the progress and development of Digital TV Migration in Zone 1 and Zone
2 (Java, Bali islands Batam and Sumatera)
If the problem is not resolved, the alternative method is to establish Independen
Multiplex, subsidy set-top-box, etc.
Options:
Government procurement, Build transfer operation to the indepeden Multiplex (both
satellite and terrestrial)...NBNCo model in Australia
Incentive Auction....Compensating the incumbent with the fund provided by spectrum
auction in 700 MHz and other band.
Joint announment the commitment to align with the 700 MHz spectrum band (with AITI, MCMC, IDA), 18 June 2013-CommunicAsia Singapore
29
Further action
Further study is required
Need more benchmark of success story of collaboration broadcaster and telco in convergence, in order to convince broadcaster that they will get more oportunity
Any suggestion is welcome
30
Ditjen SDPPI – Kementerian Kominfo
E-mail: [email protected]