6th Session of the UNECE ’s Group OAPEC of Experts on Gas...In mid2017, QP and Shell - Formed LNG Marine bunkering venture to develop bunkering infrastructure at strategic shipping

OAPEC

Current and Future Trends in Sustainable Production of Gas and LNG in the Arab Countries

Gas Industries ExpertOrganization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)

6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas


United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20192

Agenda

Production Boom of Gas and LNG in the Arab Countries

Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resources to Achieve Sustainable Production

Current and Future Projects for long term LNG Sustainability

1

2

3

2



N.America7%

C& S. America4%

Europe/Euroasia32%

Asia Pacific8%

Other Middle East17%

Arab Countries27%

Sub-Saharan Africa

5%

3

Proven Gas Reserves in the Arab Countries

27%Share of proven gas reserves in the Arab countries

1

Total gas reserves : 201 tcm

Source: OAPEC, Oil & Gas Journal 2018.! Irregular distribution of proven gas reserves in

the Arab region

70%Of proven gas reserves are located in Qatar,

KSA and UAE

Distribution of Proven Gas Reserves per Country , 2018

Distribution of the World’s Total Proven Gas Reserves, 2018

44%

MENA region



Gas Production Boom.. Who Led the Boom?1

Arab Region, 318%

World , 83%

N.America, 48%

CIS, 10% Europe, 5%

Asia Pacific, 315%

-200%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

1990 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 2017

index"1990=0 or Base Year

Gas Production Total Growth Per Region (Since 1990)Total Growth %

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE TOTAL GAS PRODUCTION IN 2017

585 bcm

This accounts for 16% of the global gas production

Arab region was a major contributor to the global gas production boom

Adoption of policies to unlock the potential of large conventional gas resources

Increasing awareness of the role of gas in achieving sustainable development

Qatar led the production growth in the region, accounting for 29% of the total production in 2017

Qatar

KSA

Algeria

UAEEgyptOman

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 2017

29%

20%

17%

11%9%5%

10%

Gas Production Growth in the Arab Countries Production in bcm



Development of LNG infrastructure and exports1

LNG plant in full operationStopped LNG plant

LNG plant in partial operationGas Export Pipeline

AlgeriaEgyptLibya

UAE

Spain

Italy

Iran Syria

Jordan

Turkey

Iraq

A number of Arab countries, led by Qatar, Algeria , invested heavily in Gas/LNG export projects to create another source of revenues beside oil (SDG-8)

The contribution of Oil & Gas sector to the economic growth was large and created tens of thousands of direct and indirect job opportunities (SDG-8)

0306090

120150180210240270300330

2002 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Qatar Algeria Oman UAEEgypt Yemen Australia USAIndonesia Malaysia T&T NigeriaOthers Libya % of Arab Countries

Development of LNG Exports, MT

Arab countries played a global effective role over decades to provide an efficient, affordable and cleaner energy source to different regions, and thus supported endeavors toward (SDG-7)

Source: OAPEC, GIIGNL, LNG edge



Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resources to Achieve Sustainable Gas Production2

This means, there is still a room for investment in the upstream sector to sustain/boost gas production levels.

The total growth rate of proven gas reserves was the highest in the Arab region (reached around 120%)

However, the proportionality of Gas Reserves to Gas Production growth is lower compared to other regions

Source: OAPEC

Development of Proven Gas Reserves and Marketed Production Per Region

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiGj6_OicXgAhVPNOwKHcHvCvsQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=https://pixabay.com/en/photos/rowing/?image_type%3Dvector&psig=AOvVaw1fnlkqrHf3UxwFav9hNtMm&ust=1550572168827675



Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resources… Why it is needed?2

44%

53.1%

1.3%

2%

1990

51%48%

1%

1%

2017

Primary Energy Mix in Arab Region

Gas has become the fuel of choice in many sectors and has taken market share away from oil

Recently, the growth rate of gas consumption was higher than that of the production.

Consequently , net gas exports declined to meet local the demand in Arab gas exporters

Source: OAPEC



Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resource: key actions/measures..2

Oil, 38%

Gas, 31%

Power, 27%

Chemicals, 4%

Committed MENA investments by Sector over 2018-2022

Total committed investments in the whole energy sector $ 345 B

Total committed investments in the gas sector only$ 109 B

Source: APICORP

Opening new blocks (offshore & onshore ) for exploration activities (Egypt, UAE,..)

Tapping into Gas-Cap reservoirs & technically challenging gas fields (UAE, Kuwait)

Lifting self-imposed moratorium on mega gas fields development (North field in Qatar)

Expediting the development of recent gas finds to boost production levels (Egypt)

Tapping into unconventional gas reservoirs (Saudi Arabia, Oman)



Oversupplied Supply-tight

Globally, LNG demand will continue to grow to reach around 480 MT in 2030(i.e. 50% total increase compared to 2017)

Global LNG Supply-Demand Outlook through 2016-2030

Source: OAPEC

Current and Future Projects for long term LNG Sustainability3

The expected gap between demand/supply will evolve by 2023 and will continue to widen which involves adding new capacities.

Source: OAPEC

Global LNG Supply-Demand Gap 2016-2030




Ongoing LNG projects in the Arab Countries over the period 2018-2023

Qatar.. New Mega Trains

Qatar will boost its LNG capacity from 77 to110 MTPA by 2023.

Oman.. DebottleneckingDe-bottlenecking of existing facilities willadd 1.5 MTPA by 2021.

Mauritania..New FrontierThe Tortue/Ahmeyim Project will havetwo FLNG with a total capacity of 5MTPA. First FLNG to start by 2022

Egypt.. East Med Hub

Egypt has two LNG plants can be used forre-export of gas in the East Med. region.

Qatar EgyptOman UAE Yemen

Source: OAPEC

LNG plants Working Capacity* in 2018

Algeria

* Actual Output/Nominal capacity



LNG capacity in the Arab region will be boosted by around one-third in total by 2023 to increase LNG supplies to different markets.

138 138

39

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

2018 2023

MTP

A

New Existing

Outlook of LNG Capacity in the Arab Countries

177

MTP

ASource: OAPEC

3950

1.221.6 21.9 18.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040

MT

Outlook of LNG Demand in the European Markets

Europe’s dependence on gas/LNG imports will continue to grow due to continuing decline of its indigenous gas production

Europe’s LNG imports in 2018 increased to 50 million tonnes, and forecasted to reach >70 million tonnes by 2025

Source: Cedigaz




Sufur Content in Marine Fuels and limits (ppm)

35,000

24,500

5,000

1,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Current IMO Global Limit

Average Marine H.F.O

2020 IMO Global Limit

ECA Limit

Road Diesel Limit

In force since Jan 2015

Data Source: IMO

Middle East (UAE, Egypt,..)

East Asia (Japan, China, Singapore,..)

North Sea (ECA)

Baltic Sea (ECA)

Coast of North America (ECA)

*ECA: Emissions Control Area(North sea, Baltic sea, English Channel

In mid-2017, QP and Shell Formed LNG Marine bunkering venture to develop bunkering infrastructure at strategic shipping locations across the globe.

In Mid 2018, Oman inked MOU with Total to develop LNG bunkering hub in Oman

In late 2018, UAE’s major Adnoc announced plans to develop LNG bunkering facilities with Japan’s Inpex




Key Messages

“In the Arab region, gas is a key pillar of the energy system and a major contributor to attain the sustainable development goals (in particular: SDG-7 & SDG-8)

“Arab region will continue to provide an efficient, affordable, reliable and cleaner energy source and support other regions’ endeavor achieve the sustainable energy objectives”.

?



Thank You

Eng.Wael A.MoatiGas Industries Expert,

OAPEC

[email protected]

Documents

6th Session of the UNECE ’s Group OAPEC of Experts on Gas...In mid2017, QP and Shell - Formed LNG Marine bunkering venture to develop bunkering infrastructure at strategic shipping