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8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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Managing Intra-country Growth Disparities in
South Asia
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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10 Patterns Governing South Asian Growth
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
CountryPopulation
ages 15-64
(% of total)
Population
ages 0-14 (%
of total)Afghanistan 50.3 47.4Bhutan 66.8 28.5Bangladesh 64.7 30.6Nepal 59.4 35.6Pakistan 61.3 34.3India 65.4 29.4Sri Lanka 66.6 25.2Maldives 66.0 29.0Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Population and Youth in South Asia (2012)
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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2. Fast Urbanization & Agglomeration
CountryUrban
population
(% of total)
Population in urban
agglomerations of
more than 1 million
(% of totalpopulation)
Afghanistan 23.9 10.7Bhutan 36.3 -Bangladesh 28.9 14.9Nepal 17.3 -Pakistan 36.5 19.2India 31.7 12.7Sri Lanka 15.2 -Maldives 42.2 -
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Urbanization and Agglomeration in South Asia (2012)
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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5
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Percentage
South Asia Real GDP Growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Percentage
Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Percentage
Agriculture, value added (annual % growth)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Percentage
Services, value added (annual % growth)
3. Rising Share of Services Sector
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2.5
3.92.9 3
3.6 3.4 3.4 3
012345
CPIA public sector management and
institutions rating(1=low to 6=high)
1.5
3.53
2.5
3.5 3.5 3.53
0
1
2
3
4
CPIA property rights and rule-based
governance rating 2012(1=low to 6=high)
2
4.5
2.5 2.5
3.53 3 3
0
1
2
3
45
CPIA transparency, accountability, and
corruption in the public sector rating
2012 (1=low to 6=high)
45
19.9
46.6
12.4
47.4
49.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Nepal
%
ofTotalFirms
Firms competing against unregistered
firms 2009
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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5. Disconnect with Sustainability
17
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
South Asia World
Percentage
Forest area (% of land area)
0.23
0.600.34
0.13
1.66
0.62
3.21
0.95
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
(met
rictonspercapita)
CO2 Emissions
2009
1972
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
16.8
19.9
17.5
5.6
24
18
0 10 20 30
angladesh
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
(% of population)
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
72.7
36.7
4259.2
47.2
9.2
10.5
39
0 20 40 60 80
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
BhutanPakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Infant mortality rate 2011
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
16.8
19.9
17.5
5.6
24
18
0 10 20 30
angladesh
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
(% of population)
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
72.7
36.742
59.2
47.2
9.2
10.5
39
0 20 40 60 80
Afghanistan
BangladeshBhutan
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Infant mortality rate 2011
3.1
70.2
133.5
26.6
168.7
27.0
0
50
100
150
200
(per1,0
00adults
)
Borrowers from commercial banks 2011
0 1 2 3
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
MaldivesSri Lanka
New Firm registrations per 1,000 people
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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7. Low Levels of Inclusiveness
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
GINI
index
Income share held
by highest 10%
Income share
held by lowest
10%
Poverty
headcount at
$2/day (% of
Population)
Afghanistan 27.82 23.21 4.08 -
Bhutan 38.06 29.36 2.8 29.8
Bangladesh 32.12 27.03 3.9 76.5
Pakistan 30.02 26.05 4.36 60.2
India 33.9 28.79 3.69 68.8
Sri Lanka 36.4 30.03 3.39 23.9
Maldives 37.37 28.03 2.71 12.2
Nepal 32.82 26.52 3.63 57.3
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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8. Lacking Participatory Approach
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2
43.5
2.53
44.5
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA gender equality rating 2012(1=low to 6=high)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Voice and Accountability Index 2011
(1=low to 6=high)
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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9. Low Redistribution
12
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
8.810.0
9.2 9.310.4 10.7
12.413.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
%o
fGDP
Tax Revenue in South Asia 2011
-0.9
-1.3
0.4
-5.1
-3.3
-11.7
-7.2
-1.2
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
%o
fGDP
Average Budget Deficit 2006-10
7.9 8.3
7.1
12.1
8.8 8.810.2
9.3
0
5
10
15
%G
row
th
Average Consumer Price Index 2006-12
3.5 3.5
3
3.5 3.54
32.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA quality of budgetary management 2012
Rating (1=low to 6=high)
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Efficiency ofcustoms clearance
processQuality of trade and
transport-related
infrastructureCompetence and
quality of logistics
servicesAfghanistan 2.33 2.0 2.16Bhutan 2.29 2.3 2.42Bangladesh 2.33 2.49 2.44India 2.77 2.87 3.14Pakistan 2.85 2.69 2.77Maldives 2.24 2.47 2.68Sri Lanka 2.58 2.5 2.8Nepal 2.20 1.87 2.12
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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Summarizing Underlying Growth Patterns
14
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth2. Fast Urbanization and Agglomeration
3. Rising Share of Services
4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions5. Disconnect with Sustainability
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
7. Low levels of Inclusiveness8. Lack of Participatory Approach
9. Low Redistribution
10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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15
What Next for South Asia?
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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16
Emerging Mega Trends
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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1. Empowerment
17
Emerging
examples of
individual
empowerment
Rising Middle
Class
Independent
Media
Access to ICTPro-poor
legislation
Right toInformation
Act
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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2. Demography
18
Demographic
Change
Urban
Class
IncreasedMobility
across
Sectors
Rising
Internal
Migration
Knowledge
Spillovers
Diaspora
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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3. New Power Centers
19
Power
Centers
Civil society
SuperiorJudiciary
MediaParliamenta
ry Forces
CorporateSector
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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20
Game Changers
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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21
GameChangers
ViolentConflicts
Human &
Man-madedisasters
Corruption&
Transparenc
y
Failure to
Invest inHuman
Capital
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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Lets Rethink South Asian Inclusive Growth
22
1. How will these game changers impact the megatrends?
2. Can rural development be separated fromtraditional structural transformation?
3. How urban spaces can become hubs of domesticcommerce?
4. Can we reinvent youth engagement?
8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia
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Thank You
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