A Homicide Hot Spots Patrol Test in Trinidad and Tobago

Commissioner of Police (Ag) Stephen Williams Trinidad & Tobago

6th International Conference on Evidence-Based Policing

Tuesday 9th July 2013

Background

• A sharp increase in the number of homicide cases in T&T during the last decade

• Over 60% attributed to gang-related activity

• Yet even within high-crime areas, violence in T&T tends to be concentrated in smaller, micro-level crime places – a strong justification for hotspot policing

• Cambridge University <> TTPS partnership

Spatial and Temporal Concentrations of Homicides in T&T

n=1,6621 Jan 2009 – 21 Jan 2013

January

February

March

AprilMay

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

156

115

129

Homicide – Month

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 50%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Time of Day (n=1,354) – All Divisions

hour of day

perc

ent

48% in 7 hours

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 50%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Top 4 Divisions (81% of all Homicides)Port of Spain Northern North Eastern Western

hour of day

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

15.5%

12.9%11.9%

14.0% 14.3%

16.4%15.0%

Homicide - Day of Week

Spatial Concentrations – Port of Spain as a case study

Aerial view of the hotspot with the highest homicide rate (n=138 in 4 years)

MOSTLY HANDGUNS!!Robbery Shoot/wound Grand Total

Hand gun 87.52% 84.95% 87.14%

Other firearm 3.32% 3.13% 3.30%

Other weapon 2.64% 4.12% 2.86%

Sawed off shot gun 0.80% 0.49% 0.76%

Shot gun 5.72% 7.30% 5.95%

N 12,818 2,233 15,051

The Trinidad and Tobago Homicide Hotspots Experiment

Targets and Aims

• Reduce Serious Crime by 50% compared to control conditions

• Use all 3 “Triple Ts” of Evidence Based Policing

– Targeting the power few – Testing the Intervention through rigorous science and – Tracking with GPS tracking and effective management

(station-level Compstat)

Selection of Targets• All Police Station Districts that have eligible hotspots within their

geographic boundaries

• Top percentile that is responsible for most of crime and disorder in Trinidad and Tobago

• Excluding Laventille

• Focus heavily on violent crimes (shootings, woundings and homicides) and overall crime harm index

• Focus indirectly on all other serious street crimes

• Increase legitimacy of T&T Police through effective but fair procedures

Proposed Program

• Station-Level Compstat Every 14 days --hearts and minds, targeting predicted crime

• Hot Spot Patrols Hot Times—primarily in vehicles

• Patrol Tracking Maps for Compstat Discussion

• Searches for Guns

• Roadblocks Stop & Search

Process of Random Assignment1. Rank-Order all T&T Stations according to resources available

(n of vehicles, manpower, etc.) and n of serious incidents in 12 months (shootings, homicides, woundings)

2. Exclude Besson Street Police Station--all treatment *

3. Exclude stations with fewer than 5 incidents in 12 months

4. Random assignment of stations across districts

creating 24 pairs______* Extreme outlier with 188 incidents; next in rank is Morvant Police Station with 49 incidents

A B C D E F G H I J0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

4038

25

16

12 1311

7 6 7 6

Random Assignment - mid range stations

Stations

shoo

tings

+wou

ndin

gs+h

omic

ides

+att

empt

ed h

omic

ides

Grade A Grade BGrade B

Grade C

Grade A

Tracking Patrols

GPS Tracking

1. AVL GPS-based trackers

2. Hand held GPS trackers

3. Crucial: It will help us measure the link between police presence and crime

4. As crucial: Officers’ safety!

Test driving the system:

Bi-Weekly Station-Level Compstat• Common practice in T&T at Division level, but not yet at

station level

• Ongoing feed of data from CAPA

• Winning the hearts and minds of officers with:1. Positive and negative reinforcements 2. Quick response to issues: Discussing challenges and obstacles

at the tactical level3. Accountability: ownership of problems at hotspots by

designated officers

Outcomes

1. N of all crimes2. N of homicides3. Tankebe’s legitimacy surveys4. Crime harm index

2008-Q1

2008-Q2

2008-Q3

2008-Q4

2009-Q1

2009-Q2

2009-Q3

2009-Q4

2010-Q1

2010-Q2

2010-Q3

2010-Q4

2011-Q1

2011-Q2

2011-Q3

2011-Q4

2012-Q1

2012-Q2

2012-Q3

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

Crime Harm Index - Quarterly Totals

Cameras?

• ….

A Homicide Hot Spots Patrol Test in Trinidad and Tobago

Commissioner of Police (Ag) Stephen Williams Trinidad & Tobago

6th International Conference on Evidence-Based Policing