60th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs

8/14/2019 60th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs

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Presidential Address

by Jayantha Dhanapala

60th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs:

Dialogue, Disarmament, & Regional and Global Security, 1-5November 2013Istanbul !ur"ey

It is six years since I assumed the Presidency of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and

World Affairs in Bari. It has been a long journey with wayside stops at the conferences

in he !ague in "##$ and in Berlin in "#%%. We now meet in ur&ey at the crossroads of

the 'ast and West which has seen a confluence of old empires and old ci(ili)ations from

By)antium in the *th century BC through Constantinople of the + th century A, and

thereafter to today-s Istanbul of modern secular ur&ey. his historic city symboli)es the

Alliance of Ci(ili)ationsthe / programme aimed at impro(ing understanding and

cooperati(e relations among nations and peoples across cultures and religions co0chaired

by ur&ey and Spain 0 countering the forces that fuel polari)ation and extremism. his

programme underlines the common humanity of us all0 a concept embedded in the

1ondon 2anifesto and in the core philosophy of Pugwash. oday-s 2armaray unnel is

the modern Sil& 3oute symboli)ing how modern technology can enhance our

connecti(ity.

We ha(e already heard the report of the Secretary 4eneral on the acti(ities of Pugwash

and I will not repeat our many achie(ements. he historical mission of Pugwash from its

inception and its impressi(e record5 which5 inter alia5 earned the /obel Peace Pri)e in

%$$65 has been based on a fundamental rele(ance to the global context in which we ha(e

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been placed and had to function. hus5 as we charter a course for the future we must

remain firmly anchored to the global situation of today and its li&ely de(elopments. I

would li&e therefore5 to examine the contours of that political and economic situation.

Political situation:

7irst5 on the political situation 0 far0reaching changes ha(e been ta&ing place in the

structure of international affairs since the end of Cold War bipolarity between the SA

and the old SS3 leading to a unipolar world dominated by the SA. We now see the

beginnings of a multipolar world in both political and economic terms with the old

powers who are the permanent members of the / Security Council 8 the SA5 3ussia5

the 95 7rance and China 8 ha(ing to accommodate the so0called emerging economies

such as Bra)il5 South Africa5 India5 ur&ey and the AS'A/ countries resulting in new

formations li&e the 4"# countries who are gradually becoming the global decision

ma&ers.

Rise of the South

he "#%: issue of the /,P;s !uman ,e(elopment 3eport focuses on the uote from it 8


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3e(olution did. By "#6#5 Bra)il5 China and India combined are projected to account for

+#? of world output in purchasing power parity terms.= So it is a tide lifting all boats.

While South0South trade has increased from @? in %$@# to "? in "#%% the rise of the

South must not be seen purely in terms of a /orth0South di(ide. he !uman

,e(elopment 3eport goes on to say5 and I >uote again5


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wars howe(er is now seen in conflicts li&e Syria with some states supporting one side and

other states supporting and arming the other. As the SIP3I yearboo& "#%: says ually difficult to predict.= What is disturbing is the power politics

in the 2iddle 'ast and intra0Arab competition fuelling sectarian conflict and gra(ely

retarding a solution to the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people let alone the

hopes of the Arab Spring.

he SIP3I yearboo& "#%: states that World military expenditure in "#%" is estimated to

ha(e been E%*6 billion5 representing ".6 per cent of global gross domestic product

F4,PG or E"+$ for each person in the world. It further states that the distribution of global

military spending in "#%" shows what may be the beginnings of a shift from the West to

other parts of the world5 in particular 'astern 'urope and the de(eloping world.

Significantly SIP3I also states that the rate of growth of military spending accelerated in

the 2iddle 'ast and /orth Africa.

Nuclear weapons in the world:

4lobal estimates record that %*5"*# nuclear warheads in both acti(e and inacti(e storage

exist in the possession of $ countries in the world 6 of them within the /P.

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Hf this5 the SA and the 3ussian 7ederation own $6? of the nuclear weapons. ++##

nuclear warheads are on deployed status and nearly "### of these are &ept in a state of

high operational alert ready to be launched within minutes. he world remains hostage to

the li&ely use of these weapons by design or by accident. here is also the additional ris&

of non0state actors securing such weapons or weapon material for their use for anarchist

purposes. As a member of the Asian Pacific 1eaders /etwor& on /uclear

/onproliferation and ,isarmament FAP1/G I would li&e to refer to our !o Chi 2inh City

,eclaration of the %:thHctober this year which noted with concern that the uately addressed.=

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https://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/BMS_Long_Report_FINAL.pdfhttps://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/BMS_Long_Report_FINAL.pdf


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The global report 2013 on the financing of nuclear weapons producers titled Dont Bank

on the Bomb by ICAN and IKV PAX Christi finds 298 financial institutions involved

significantly. The following are excerpts from the summary of the report:

Looking at the period starting January 2010, 298 banks, insurance companies, pension

funds and asset managers from 30 countries were found that invest significantly in the

nuclear weapon industry. 175 are based in North America, 65 are based in Europe and 47

are based in Asia Pacific, 10 are based in the Middle East, one is based in Africa and

none are based in Latin America or the Caribbean.

Dont Bank on the Bomb 2013 identifies 27 companies involved in the production,

maintenance, and modernization of nuclear weapons. The 27 are companies based in

United States, the United Kingdom, France, India, the Netherlands and Germany.

It is my personal conviction that we should be at the vanguard of a disinvestment

campaign to bring down the nuclear weapon industry in the same way as the anti-

apartheid disinvestment campaign undermined the apartheid regime in South Africa.

Economic outlook:

he /-s 2illennium ,e(elopment 4oals pledged to hal(e extreme po(erty in the world

by "#%6 among other tas&s on which partial success is being registered. A high le(el /

report titled


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We li(e in an age of transitions. ransitions whether from insecurity to security5 from war

to peace5 from po(erty to economic growth are rarely smooth and stable. Political

transitions are fraught with competition5 contro(ersy and tension economic transitions

can exacerbate ine>ualities social transitions may exclude and marginali)e some groups.

We must therefore ensure that transitions are managed wisely and effecti(ely and

Pugwash can play a role in this.

We ha(e still not emerged from the global recession caused in the industriali)ed West by

irresponsible ban&s which had a contagious effect on the rest of the world. !owe(er5 the

rise of the global south has helped to mitigate the impact of the austerity measures caused

by that recession on the emerging economies of the global south. Another important

social statistic is that the middle class in the world is expected to number 6"? of the

world by "#:#. hat middle class contains the professional classes which ha(e been the

engine of democracy and of economic growth throughout history.

Climate change:

Climate change is another area with which we5 as a conference of science and world

affairs5 must be concerned. he 6 thInter0go(ernmental Panel on Climate Change FIPCCG

assessment report has now been published e(aluating new e(idence of climate change.

he findings are irrefutable. It says that human acti(ity has been undoubtedly the cause

of climate change which will ma&e our existence ultimately unsustainable unless changes

in our life styles and our consumption of fossil fuels are controlled immediately. o >uote

the IPCC experts

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ui(ocaland since %$6# many changes ha(e been

obser(ed throughout the climate system that are unprecedented o(er decades to millennia.

Hbser(ations of changes in the climate system are based on multiple lines of

independent e(idence. Hur assessment of the science finds that the atmosphere and ocean

ha(e warmed5 the amount of snow and ice has diminished5 the global mean sea le(el has

risen and the concentrations of greenhouse gases ha(e increasedContinued emissions

of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the

climate system. 1imiting climate change will re>uire substantial and sustained reductions

of greenhouse gas emissions.K. hese changes ha(e an impact on international peace and

security and our (ery existence.

4i(en the bac&ground I ha(e described what are the prospects for nuclear disarmamentL

Challenges for a world free of nuclear weapons:

We remain wedded to our primary goal of the elimination of the most destructi(e weapon

in(ented by human &ind. hat goal moti(ated our pioneers in %$6* and continues to

moti(ate us all today. he much ad(ertised (ision of a nuclear weapon free world which

we all enthused o(er following the historic Wall Street Mournal op0eds of Shult)5

9issinger5 Perry and /unn5 and translated into official policy in the Hbama speech of

April "##$ in Prague has now faded. After the modest /ew SA3 treaty of "#%% we

ha(e still to see a resumption of S 3ussian tal&s. Hbstacles ha(e appeared in the form of

the ballistic missile defence plans of the S5 perceptions of imbalance in con(entional

weapons arsenals and the presence of theatre weapons in 'urope which ha(e no longer

any military rationale. he CB is bloc&ed from entry into force by @ countries that

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ha(e still to sign or ratify that (ital bra&e on the moderni)ation and de(elopment of

nuclear weapons. hey are China5 the ,emocratic People-s 3epublic of 9orea5 'gypt5

India5 the Islamic 3epublic of Iran5 Israel5 Pa&istan and the nited States of America. he

7issile 2aterial Cut off reaty negotiations in the Conference on ,isarmament ha(e been

bloc&ed since %$$6 while that


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go(ernment of /orway too hosted an international conferenceon the humanitarian

impact of nuclear weapons from +06 2arch which concluded with the announcementof a

follow0up meeting to be hosted by 2exico scheduled for "#%+

Hn the "thof September / 4eneral Assembly hosted a high0le(el meeting on nuclear

disarmament which pro(ided an opportunity for states to outline their policies and

priorities for nuclear disarmament. In his concluding remar&s Ambassador Mohn W. Ashe

President of the @th Session of the nited /ations 4eneral Assembly said5 uote


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pro(en in the ongoing Syrian crisis5 where in response to the use of chemical weapons

bold political mo(es were made to attempt to a(ert a further escalation of the already

gra(e military conflict. his creati(e solution represented Oout of the box- thin&ing and

also was discussed at the unofficial


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1a&hdar Brahimi all success as he wor&s patiently and contructi(ely to hold the 4ene(a

II conference. Syria in the immediate neighbourhood of our host country ur&ey5 is an

example of the complexity of the proxy wars that are being fought sacrificing the li(es of

innocent ci(ilians causing the destruction of economies and historic cities. Concepts li&e

the


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opportunities are immediately a(ailable 8 Syria and Iran.

Hn Iran5 the model framewor& agreement drafted painsta&ingly by Pugwash has a chance

of being implemented in the new atmosphere generated by the election of President

3ouhani in Iran5 his statements at the / and the telephone call between the President of

the S and him. here will be obstructionist mo(es and negati(e warnings but the news

so far inclusi(e of the meeting between the IA'A and Iran is hopeful.

!he Work of Pugwash

Pugwash has been acti(e in regional conflicts especially those that could lead to nuclear

proliferation and nuclear war and our website contains comprehensi(e details of this.

Some examples this year alone are 8 the Pugwash meetings on Afghan reconciliation

held in ,ubai5 %60%* Manuary "#%:


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of that country and that region.

But there are also new issues that we ha(e to be constantly alert to recogni)e and address

where a more prominent role by Pugwash is possible. hey include 0

7irstly5 Cybersecurity. I ha(e spo&en in Berlin on the Cyber0security issue on which we

undoubtedly ha(e expertise. he re(elations of whistle blowers such as 2anning5

Assange and Snowden re(eal how (ulnerable we all are to the snooping by go(ernments

and their agencies. In the interest of international peace and security it is (ital that cyber

security must be assured and common norms5 principles and regulations must be found

on the international le(el. Breaches in computer systems could cause instability and e(en

widespread chaos pro(o&ing further conflict and the use of force .We ha(e a duty as an

organi)ation of scientists to maintain secure systems without perpetuating weapons of

mass destruction and go(ernmental systems which oppress there people. I call on national

groups who ha(e the expertise to join Prof 4ot) /eunec& and me in drafting a

programme of action for Pugwash to commence serious acti(ity on cyber security as a

parallel program on nuclear disarmament and regional conflicts. SIP3I cites one estimate

of global public and pri(ate cyber0security spending as E # billion in "#%%. ual.=

Secondly5 Pugwash has resumed participation in the /'SCH-s world commission on

the 'thics of Scientific 9nowledge and echnology FCH2'SG which is an ad(isory

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body and forum of reflection that was set up by /'SCH in %$$@ and has the mandate to

formulate ethical principles that could pro(ide decision0ma&ers with criteria that extend

beyond purely economic considerations. he President of Pugwash is ex0officio a

member of this body and we ha(e only recently re0acti(ated our participation.

Currently5 CH2'S is wor&ing in se(eral areas en(ironmental ethics5 with reference

inter alia to climate change5 biodi(ersity5 water and disaster pre(ention the ethics of

nanotechnologies along with related new and emerging issues in con(erging technologies

including military robotics ethical issues relating to the technologies of the information

society science ethics and gender issues in ethics of science and technology.

hirdly5 I ha(e sought and obtained the authority of the 'xecuti(e Committee on bringing

Pugwash into the steering committee on the campaign to stop &iller 3obots. he Oboffins-

in arms laboratories are now engaged in a new and frightening phase of the arms race 8

the de(elopment of fully autonomous robotic weapons. With these weapons the world

will see completely autonomous weapons with )ero human participation on the

battlefield. his will ha(e huge conse>uences in terms of accountability and the

implementation of international humanitarian law. Alerted to this weird manifestation of

the arms industry a number of non0go(ernmental organi)ations F/4HsG including

the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs launched a campaign in 1ondon

on April ": to


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7ourthly5 following pressure from many delegations and ci(il society in which Pugwash

played a prominent role5 the /P 3e(Con in "#%# endorsed 6 practical steps to ma&e

progress towards the goal of establishing a W2,7R in the 2' which include con(ening

a regional conference to discuss the issue in "#%" and appointing a W2,7R 7acilitator.

he conference on a 2'W2,7R was set to be held in 7inland in ,ecember "#%"5

facilitated by Ambassador Maa&&o 1aaja(a 7innish ndersecretary of State who has been

at our Istanbul Conference. !owe(er on /o(ember ":5 "#%"5the SA issued a unilateral

statement postponing the ,ecember "#%" conference. he .S. statement cited Kpresent

conditions in the 2iddle 'astK and the lac& of agreement by participating states on

Kacceptable conditionsK for the ,ecember conference. A Pugwash statement was issued

at the time regretting this decision. 2ore recently a statement by myself and the S4 dated

"$thAugust "#%: said that= e(ents in Syria reinforce the urgent need for a 2iddle 'ast

W2, 7ree Rone. he conference called for by the /P 3e(iew Conference in "#%# for

"#%" should be held with utmost urgency.=

he International Panel on 7issile 2aterial has released a new research report titled

K7issile 2aterial Controls in the 2iddle 'ast Steps toward a 2iddle 'ast Rone 7ree of

/uclear Weapons and all other Weapons of 2ass ,estructionK. It suggests


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confidence that their ci(ilian nuclear acti(ities are indeed peaceful in intent and not being

pursued as a co(er to de(elop nuclear0weapon options.

7or Israel5 the initial steps proposed include ending production of plutonium and highly

enriched uranium5 declaring its stoc&piles of these materials5 and placing increasing

portions under international safeguards as steps toward their elimination. he regional

measures that are proposed would ser(e to bring a 2iddle 'ast nuclear weapon0free )one

closer and ma&e the )one more robust when it is in force. hese measures include no

separation of plutonium5 no use of highly enriched uranium or plutonium as fuel5 and no

national enrichment plants. It would greatly strengthen the global nonproliferation regime

if these measures were adopted worldwide5 including by the nuclear weapon states.=

he failure to hold the 2iddle 'ast W2, free Rone tal&s in ,ecember "#%" was a great

disappointment. nless these tal&s are held soon5 the "#%6 /P 3e(iew Conference is

doomed to fail jeopardi)ing the (iability of the /P itself and unra(eling the pac&age of

,ecisions adopted at the %$$6 /P 3e(iew 'xtension Conference which I presided

o(er.

7ifthly and finally5 the Arctic is an area where a nuclear weapon free )one could be

enforced. he Arctic has been (ital to humanity;s de(elopment5 and history has a strange

way of repeating itself. What is now the Bering Strait was once a land bridge5 across

which humans migrated from Asia to the Americas. It promises today to be a maritime

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conduit for increased global commerce through the Arctic as human0induced climate

change causes ice to melt and shipping lanes to open. his de(elopment has the potential

to bring nations and peoples together for peace and de(elopment 00 or to spawn dispute

and conflict. Beyond its contribution to rising sea le(els5 the melting of the Arctic ice cap

will facilitate the mining of resources5 especially oil and gas5 and lead to an increase in

commercial shipping. he ownership of the resources and the so(ereignty of Arctic areas5

including the /orthwest Passage5 are already being contested. As someone who has

de(oted most of his wor&ing life to the cause of disarmament5 and especially nuclear

disarmament5 I am deeply concerned that two nuclear weapon states 00 the nited States

and the 3ussian 7ederation5 which together own $6 percent of the nuclear weapons in the

world 00 face one another across the Arctic and ha(e competing claims. hese claims 00

not to mention those that could be made by /orth Atlantic reaty Hrgani)ation member

states Canada5 ,enmar&5 Iceland5 and /orway 00 may lead to conflict that has the

potential to escalate into the use of nuclear weapons. hus the Arctic is ripe for

con(ersion into a nuclear weapon free )one. An all0encompassing Arctic reaty5 signed a

half century after the Antarctic reaty5 would be a major achie(ement. o those s&eptics

who dismiss a wide0ranging agreement as unrealistic and impossible5 let me >uote the

great /orwegian explorer5 scientist5 and /obel Peace Pri)e0winning diplomat 7ridtjof

/ansen5 who said5 Khe difficult is what ta&es a little time the impossible is what ta&es

longer.K I congratulate the Canadian5 ,anish and 3ussian Pugwash national groups and

others5 including the 7irst /ation indigenous groups5 who are in the campaign for the

reali)ation of an Arctic /W7R.

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be no national security without shared human security.=

he demography of the world is changing and we are seeing an increasing youth segment

of society. Pugwash li&e all others must ta&e cogni)ance of this. he / S4 in his "#%:

report on the wor& of the organi)ation said

Documents

60th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs