India Post 2014 Election6 Months of Government under

Narendra Modi

by Dr. Jona Aravind Dohrmann

Asien-Afrika Institut, Universität HamburgEdmund-Siemers-Allee 1, 20146 Hamburg

3rd December 2014

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Contents

- The Setting: India as a Constitutional Democracy –

a retrospective

- The Battle: Election campaign and results

- Contradictions in the wake of Modi‘sVictory

- Erosion: Modi‘s popularity already eroding?

- Suspicions: Modi and BJP taking to their old ways?

- Observations in certain political fields

- Challenges and possible Developments

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The Setting

Bheem Rao Ambedkar

1891 - 1956

Binayak Sen

1950 -

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The Setting

Mohandas K. Gandhi

1869 - 1948

Jawaharlal Nehru

1889 - 1964

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The Setting

Indira Gandhi

1917 - 1984

Sonia Gandhi

1946 -

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The Setting

Atal Bihari Vajpayee

1924 -

Dr. Manmohan Singh

1932 -

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The Setting

Narendra Modi

1950 -

Who next?

?Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river.

~ Nikita Khrushchev

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The Setting

• Indian National Congress (INC)– formerly dominating party

– The Nehru-Gandhi-Dynasty

– The long and slow descent

• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)– Part of Sangh Parivar

– opening up to more groups of society

– finally stable majority

• The Indian Left– Socialist and communist

– Continuous fracturing right from the beginning

• Regional parties– regionally dominant networks of elites

– Mostly focussing on caste membership9

The Battle (against the unknown opponent)

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Priyanka (*1972) and Rahul (*1970) Gandhi on Election Campaign.

Lok-Sabha elections 2014

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Lok-Sabha elections 2009

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Unambiguous results…

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…despite ambiguousdistribution of votes

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The Battle (Reasons for Modi‘s victory)

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1. Brand NaMo: a. Transformation of the Gujarat CM into a National Leaderb. Excellent PR machinery (bankrolled by much of corporate India)c. Striking an emotional chord with a majority of the electorate

„Acche din aanewale hain“

2. Incompetency of INC:a. INC as synonym for corruption and standstill, inflation and

recession �

INC as the parasitea. Groundswell of

dissatisfaction with theinept UPA-Government

The Battle (Reasons for Modi‘s victory)

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3. Selling the Gujarat Model and economic skills under the perceived ableleadership of Modi

a. India‘s once impressive economic growth crumbled in the last yearand was laser-focused by Modi all the time as a result of UPA‘sfailure to deliver

b. At the same time Gujarat‘s growth was mediocre when comparedto other states

c. Nonetheless Modi‘s message of growth etc. resonated with theelectorate

4. The incumbent PM seen as a puppeta. Manmohan Singh projected as the ‚accidental PM‘b. Lame duck in the hands of the Gandhi-Family

5. Modi connected better with the youth – half of the 810 million voters is under 35 years and eager to find a job � every year approximately 12 million new jobs are required (120 Million first-time voters)

India's economic growth

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The Battle (Reasons for Modi‘s victory)

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6. Good Network of Sangh Parivar: − The RSS has about 45,000 nationwide branches who supported

„one of their own“

7. Technology-savvy campaign using Facebook and Twitter

8. Social-Engineering � BJP wants to become the new „umbrella party“ – a tag the INC once held

9. Modi projected himself as the formertea vendor who is only in love withIndia (although technically married)

Contradictions

� The INC-led government did not really fare that bad as it was projected since

� between 2004 and 2014 the GDP grew @ 7.2 % in the average

� The national debt decreased considerably from 85 % to 65 % ofthe GNP (at the same time China‘s national debt increasedfrom 150 % to 200 %)

BUT at the same time

� Inflation regarding food rose from 6.74 % to 12.2 %

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Contradictions

• Because of a sluggisch economy Modi‘s Government loweredthe requirement for pending projects regarding theirenvironmental compatibility according to the Environmental Impact Notification (EIA, 2006) � supposedly a backlog ofprojects worth more than 70 Billion Dollars

• Construction projects now do not require an assessment ofenvironmental effects first before receiving app

BUT

• Environmental activists view this relaxation as carte blanchefor project developpers to further each any mega-project asper their convenience

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Modi‘s (BJP‘s) popularity eroding?

� In mid-term elections the BJP is losing out where it was winning earlier

� Rajasthan: lost three of four by-elections

� Uttar Pradesh: lost 8 of eleven by-elections

� This negative trend was compoundedby the fact, that the monsoon was 23 % below normal which sent the foodprices sky-rocketing � in Julyvegetable became dearer by 40 %

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Modi‘s (BJP‘s) popularity eroding?

� It is too early to say, that the honeymoon of the BJP might be over

� Elections in Maharashtra brought the Chief Ministership to the BJP for the first time: Devendra Fadnavis assumed the post of Chief Minister amongst a crowd of 40,000 � „Narendra in Delhi, Devendra in Mumbai“

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Election victory in Mahrashtra and Haryana

BJP builds new social coalitions• historic victories in both states

52% of all upper casts votes38% of all OBC-votes

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Suspicions

� Does the BJP take to its old ways in propagating Hindutva?

� Example: „Love Jihad“- campaign, through which people are made to believe, that Muslims lure Hindu women into marriages in order to make them Muslim �Modi sharing a common platform with the self-proclaimed Yogi Adityanath in Gorakpur

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Suspicions

� BJP is again raking the issue of Art. 370 of the Indian Constitution � this constitutional provision guaranteesJammu & Kashmir a special status and a higher degree ofautonomy

� Attempt to „re-write“ history (revisionist history) and denythat the Indian people today are the result of historicalmigrational movements � theory of the Indian (Hindu) race which is connected to the Indian soil (Bhumi), earlieranother example related to „Ram Sethu“ which supposedly isa divine construction

through

� changing grade-school textbooks, and secondly, by gaining control of India’s top research, educational and cultural institutions

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Suspicions

� It is observed, that in first 100 days since the taking over the prime-ministerial reigns there have been disturbing instances of censorship of books and films that challenge Hindu majoritarian nationalism

� Re-conversion of Dalit Christians in Aligarh (“Ghar Vapassi” = returning home)

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Observations - Economy

• Neo-liberal stance:

− Furthering privatisation

− Cutting down on subsidies

− Investments through PPP

• Pushing of local manufacturing and upon foreign investment:

− „Make in India“

• Stronger linkage of economic goals and diplomacy

− Make India a destination for foreign investment and strengthenjoint ventures � Japan already promised an FDI of 35 Billion Dollars in the next five years

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Observations - Economy

• economy-friendly outlook of Modi Government reduces development input

� in the long-run less allocations for NREGA-Programme

� Lower hurdles in land acquisitions and thus higher vulnerability for inhabitants of the area under question to be displaced

� Plans to remove the Planning Commission which always accomodated people-friendly policies

� Forest Rights and Conservations Acts have been relaxed thus often affecting the tribal community and their natural habitat

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Observations - Infrastructure and poverty

• „Clean India“:

− eliminate open defecation by 2019 by building toilets

− Awareness campaign about littering

• „Agriculture Infrastructure Fund“ to give impetus for investment in agricultural sector

• Fight against corruption understood as way to tackle poverty– „If we fight against corruption we will win the battle against

poverty“

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Observations - Corruption

• Verbal stand against corruption

− „Corruption is a dangerous disease, deadlier than cancer and candestroy the country“ - Modi (19.08.2014)

− By the way, the much applauded AAP who fought the most againstcorruption saw a great demise with only 4 seats in the Lok Sabha

• Government's first decision: Special Investigating Team (SIT) totrack black money parked in overseas bank accounts:

"Before us, nobody is big, nobody is small. Everybody is equal. Whoever has looted this country will be caught and will be punished, economically and otherwise also. That we assure.”

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Obervations - Foreign policy: South-Asia• Strengthening of relationships to „direct neighbourhood“

− SAARC states invited for swearing-in ceremony

− Talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif

− SAARC-summit in November 2014 with the goal of "Deeper Regional Integration for Peace and Prosperity"

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Obervations - Foreign policy: South-Asia

BUT

• the Pakistani army seems to have a different agenda andcreated unrest on the Kashmiri border and held talks withKashmiri separatists so that the high level meeting of bothMinisters of Foreign Affairswas cancelled

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Observations - Foreign policy:WorldAustralia:

– Planning to finalise Free Trade Agreement by 2016

– Agreement on "early closure" of the civilian nuclear deal that will facilitate uranium imports to India

– Modi criticises Abbott for wanting „to shirtfront“ Putin because of MH17

USA:

– Visit to USA

– Agreement on closer cooperation in defence

– Trilateral Rapprochement between USA-Japan-India

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Observiations - Foreign policy:WorldRussia:

− Indo-Russian gas pipeline

− Modi invites Putin to visit Kudakulam II (nuclear power plant)

− Both emphasize long history of relationship

− India is not supporting sanctions by US and EU

China:

− Rise in FDI from China, but only 20 Billion Dollars in two Special Economic Zones (SEZ)

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Observations: Foreign policy:BRICS

6. BRICS Summit in Fortaleza in Juli 2014

− „Contingent Reserve Arrangement“ and „New Development Bank“ as counterpart to IMW and World Bank

− Russia announces to bring forward plans for geopolitical cooperation on summit 2015 in Russia

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Challenges and possible developments

Public opinion thinks:

- According to the Survey „Mood of the Nation“ 57 % believeModi is the best choice as PM

- 48 % think that Modi makes the other Ministers superfluousand that he is able to hold the RSS at bay

� Further development of the relationship with Pakistan

� Maintaining Secularism in India

� Geopolitical position (towards East-Asia)

� ...

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Bahut Dhanyavad!

Deutsch-Indische Zusammenarbeit e. V. (DIZ)

Dr. Jona Aravind Dohrmann

Odrellstraße 43

60486 Frankfurt am Main

E-Mail: dohrmann@diz-ev.de

DIZ - Drehscheibe für

o Entwicklungszusammenarbeit

o Entwicklungspolitische Bildungsarbeit

o Freiwilligendienste (weltwärts, IJFD, Workcamps)

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