Cedefop’s Skill Needs Anticipation

Activities & EU Skills Panorama

Ilias Livanos

Skills4Jobs

Palma de Mallorca, 10 July 2014

In Summary

• Cedefop’s work on Skills Analysis.

• Skill needs forecasting in (some) detail.

• EU Skills Panorama.

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• Reporting on VET policy developments

• Analysing skill needs

• Research and data analysis on VET

• Assisting in the design of common tools and

principles

• Knowledge sharing via networks of expertise

Cedefop in a nutshell

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Pillars of Skills Analysis

2.Sectoral studies

3.Skill Mismatch 4. EU Skills

Panorama

1.Forecasting

Short-term

anticipation

Occupational

Skills

Profiles

Statistics on

skills

Green skills

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The importance of Skills

• Skills are key to Europe’s competitiveness.

• Skills are key to a successful career (employment,

wages) and to avoid undesirable labour market

outcomes (unemployment, obsolescence).

• Therefore, knowledge about skill needs is of crucial

importance.

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Skill needs intelligence is important

for . . . • Policy makers (help to design the educational system/

guide migration policies etc.).

• Trade unions (secure the interests of their members) and

employer associations (avoid future recruitment

problems).

• Individuals (job seekers, career planners).

• Career advisors (interest to best serve their clients).

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Demand and supply projections:

background information

• Academic challenge

• Provide basis for informed policy decision

• Informing LM actors and research community

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What does Cedefop forecast?

• Up to 2025

• EU 28 +

• Skills demand

– sector, occupation, qualification levels

• Skills supply

– qualification levels, age groups gender

• Replacement needs

• Imbalances + Occupation skills profiles

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Employment scenarios for EU-28

Source: Cedefop skills supply and demand forecast (2014)

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Employment recovery across Europe

Source: Cedefop skills supply and demand forecast (2014)

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Employment trends and

total job opportunities

Source: Cedefop skills supply and demand forecast (2014)

Employment change Total job opportunities

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Qualification structure of employment, EU-28

2013

2025

Source: Cedefop skills supply and demand forecast (2014)

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EU Skills Panorama:

background information

• A proposal within the Europe 2020 initiative “An Agenda

for New Skills and Jobs”.

• Prototype website launched in 2012

• A central access point to information, data and

intelligence on skills in Europe.

• - Focus on occupations and sectors

- Ensure cross-country comparisons

- Offer insights and contexts

- Explore different options in how to produce outputs

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EUSP and Cedefop • As of 1 January 2014, Cedefop has taken full

responsibility for further development.

• Cedefop’s Action Plan entails 3 main stages:

- Improvement of the content and user experience of

current website.

- Develop a new dynamic website with enriched data

information for policy makers.

- Web based tool for providing career and skills

development advice

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Designing EUSP in 6 Steps . . .

1. Profiling User

2. Identifying main characteristics & potential

challenges

3. Identifying analytical interests

4. Identifying broad areas of information

5. Proposing data & intelligence

6. Internal validation & validation from potential

users

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Step 1: Identifying potential users

of EUSP

• Policy makers

• Information, advice and guidance

agencies and practitioners

• Experts

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• Citizens

• Education and training institutions 16

Step 2: Profiling user …

A wide range of public service organisations

and practitioners. In particular, this category

includes providers (including employment services/

institutional client groups and potentially HR

departments) involved in the activities of providing

information, advice and guidance (IAG) to

individuals, whether young people or adults

making upon education and career choices.

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Step 2: … identifying main

characteristics … IAG providers offer their services to a wide range of

individuals, such as school students, school leavers,

higher education students and graduates, employees

facing redundancy, employees considering career changes

labour market returners, unemployed, older people, low-

paid, short-term employees, etc.

Therefore, they are interested in a wide range of

information that would enable them to support their clients

in making informed choices that meet their aspirations,

qualifications, skills and constraints.

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Step 2: … and identifying potential

challenges • IAG practitioners may lack technical knowledge.

• IAG practitioners need LMI primarily about their local

and regional labour markets.

• IAG practitioners should be provided the tools, and

perhaps training, to use the data.

• IAG practitioners work under strict timeframe for each

client. 19

Step 3: Identifying analytical

interest of the user • What are the future labour market needs in various

sectors/occupations?

• What are the current learning opportunities leading to relevant

qualifications for various sectors/occupations?

• What industries/regions are hiring right now?

• What types of skills are needed by this job-seeker to improve

his/her chance to find a job?

• What are the employment opportunities (e.g. based on field of

study, in which occupation/sector someone can work, what will be

the average wage etc.) for the different types of fields of study and

levels of education?

• Where are there vacancies for people with this qualification or skills

profile?

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Step 4: Identifying broad areas of

information • Information on progression routes regarding career

structure, earnings and transferability of skills.

• Information on historical and future employment

trends.

• Interaction between demand and supply in terms of

skill shortages, imbalances, unemployment rates etc.

• Sectoral, occupational and educational profiles.

• Emerging skills and occupations.

• Information on vacancies.

• Training needs of particular sectors and occupations

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Step 5: Proposing data and

intelligence • Employment levels by various dimensions for both

historical and future periods.

• Skill imbalances, skill shortages, and occupation

bottlenecks across countries, regions and sectors.

• Analysis of various micro-datasets (e.g. LFS, EU Skills

Survey) and construction of labour market indicators

• Wide range of secondary sources (e.g. reports from

sectoral/occupational in-depth interviews/focus groups

and similar studies).

• Available training/learning opportunities.

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Step 6: External validation from

potential users!

Comments, thoughts, ideas all appreciated!

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www.cedefop.europa.eu

skills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu

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03/10/2013