Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
From Technologies to Markets
© 2021
From Technologies to Markets
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms –
Technology and Market Trends 2021
Market and Technology
Report
Sample
2
GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS
AIoT - Artificial Intelligence of Things
ANT - Antenna
AP - Application Processor
AR/VR - Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality
BAW - Bulk Acoustic Wave
BoM - Bill of Material
BST - Base Station
BT - Bluetooth
BW - Bandwidth
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
CapEx - Capital Expenditure
Cat - Category
CIA - Confidentiality Integrity and Availability
CMOS - Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor
CoO - Cost of Ownership
CSP - Cellular Service Provider
DIY - Do-It-Yourself
DL – Downlink
E2E: End-to-End
eMBB - Enhanced Mobile Broad Band
Eq - Equivalent
FDD - Frequency Division Duplexing
GaAs - Gallium Arsenide
GNSS - Global Navigation Satellite System
HPC - High Power Computing
IDM - Integrated Device Manufacturer
IIoT - Industrial IoT
IoT - Internet of Things
IPD - Integrated Passive Device
ISM - Industrial Scientific and Medical
LAN - Local Area Network
LEO - Low Extraterrestrial Orbit
LN - Lithium Niobate
LNA - Low Noise Amplifier
LPWAN - Low Power Wide Area Network
LT - Lithium Tantalate
MCU - Micro Controlling Unit
mMTC - Massive Machine Type Communication
mmWave/mmWave - millimeter waves
MNO - Mobile Network Operator
ms - millisecond
NR - New Radio
NS - Network Slice
OPEX - Operational Expenditure
PA - Power Amplifier
PAN - Personal Area Network
PLC - Power Line Communication
PoS - Point of Sale
RAN: Radio Access Network
RF - Radio-Frequency
RFFE - RF Front-End
RoI - Return on Investment
RoW - Rest of the World
Rx - Reception
SAW - Surface Acoustic Wave
Si - Silicon
SiGe - Silicon Germanium
SoI - Silicon on Insulator
SPNT - Single Port Any Throws
Sub1GHz - frequencies below 1 GHz
Sub6 - frequencies below 6 GHz
TAM - Total Available Market
TC-SAW - Temperature Compensated SAW
TDD - Time Division Duplexing
TF-SAW - Thin-Film SAW
Tx - Transmission
UL - Uplink
ULP - Ultra Low Power Electronics
URLLC - Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communication
V2X - Vehicle to Everything Communication
WAN - Wide Area Network
WSN - Wireless Sensor Networks
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
3
• Glossary and definitions 2
• Table of contents 3
• Scope of the report 4
• Methodologies and definitions 5
• About the authors 6
• Companies cited in this report 7
• Three-page Summary 8
• Executive Summary 11
• Market Forecasts 40
o System-level forecast 43
o RF component-level forecast 51
o Wafer forecast 58
• Market trends 66
o General market dynamics 67
o Cellular IoT for existing and new applications 84
o Focus on Public 4G/5G Frequencies 95
o Focus on Private 4G/5G Frequencies 104
o Focus on Unlicensed ISM Frequencies 113
o mMTC 5G IoT Cost Breakdown 120
o URLLC, Edge Computing and AIoT 124
o General Expectations for IoT 136
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Market Shares and Supply Chain 148
o Market shares 149
Cellular IoT Module Market Shares 151
RF Component Market Shares 153
o Supply Chain 156
Ecosystem andTechnology Landscape 157
IoT Chipset and Module Makers 167
• TechnologyTrends 172
o Introduction 173
o Transmission Modules 177
Device and Module Examples 181
RF Front-endArchitecture 187
o RF Communication 193
o Network Infrastructure 199
Physically Private Cellular networks 201
Public Cellular networks 204
• Outlook 210
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
4
Antoine BONNABEL
Antoine Bonnabel is a technology and market analyst for the Power and Wireless team at Yole Développement (Yole). He carries out technical,
marketing, and strategic analyzes focused on RF devices, related technologies and markets. Prior to Yole, Antoine was the R&D Program Manager for
DelfMEMS (France), a company specializing in RF switches, where he supervised intellectual property and business intelligence activities. Additionally,
he has co-authored several market reports and is co-inventor of three patents in RF MEMS design. Antoine holds an M.Sc. in Microelectronics from
Grenoble Institute ofTechnology (France) and an M.Sc. in Management from Grenoble Graduate School of Business (France).
E-mail: [email protected]
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Biographies and contacts
Mohammed TMIMI
Mohammed Tmimi, PhD., joined Yole Développement (Yole) as a technology and market analyst in RF devices and technologies. Prior to Yole,Mohammed was engaged in developing a novel approach for RF/mmWave high-speed serial links for high-performance chips at STMicroelectronics'Crolles R&D site in France as part of his Ph.D. During his Ph.D., he also worked on mmWave design in advanced FD-SOI nodes and proposed anoriginal interconnect technique for 2.5D/3D packaging. Mohammed holds a patent on said serial links and has published two scientific papers.Mohammed received his Ph.D. in nanoelectronics and nanotechnologies from the University of Grenoble (Alpes, France). Previously, Mohammedgraduated from INP Grenoble (France) with a master's in microelectronics and he also holds an electronics engineering degree from ENSAO(Morocco).
E-mail: [email protected]
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
55
SCOPE OF THE REPORT
This report covers the general dynamics of the cellular IoT industry at the component level for IoT end-systems.
Cellular IoT infrastructure market dynamics – private/public networks
Cellular IoT protocol definition and description
IoT end-system architecture
IoT RF front-end description
Gateway and antenna system architecture and RF front-end
Included
Included
Included
Included
Not included
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
66
Aarna Natworks; Alcatel Lucent; Altair; Aruba; AT&T; Atmel; AWS; Bird; Bosch; British
Telecom; CAVLI Wireless; Cheerzing; China Mobile; Cisco; EnOcean; Ericsson;
Fibocom; Geotab; HBC; Hisense; Hisilicon; Hewlett Packard; Huawei; IBM; Infineon;
Intel; Lierda; LinkLabs; Long Ung; Losant; Mediatek; Meig; Microchip; Microsoft Azure;
MobileTek; MuRata; Neoway; NimbeLink; Nokia; Nordic Semiconductor; NXP;
Orange; OVH; Pycom; Qorvo; Qualcomm; Quectel; Renesas; Ruijie; Sagemcom;
Samsung; Schneider Electrics; SemTech; Sequans Communications; Sercom; Sierra
Wireless; SigFox; SIMCom; Skyworks; Smarter Micro; STMicroelectronics; Sunsea; Tayo
Yuden; Tekelek; Telit; Thales; Tuya; U-Blox; Unisoc; Vanchip; Verizon; Welink; Xiaomi; Yuge
Technology; ZTE and more.
Title of the report | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2021
COMPANIES CITED
77
METHODOLOGIES AND DEFINITIONS
Market
Volume (in Munits)
ASP (in $)
Revenue (in $M)
Yole’s market forecast model is based on the aggregation of several sources:
Information
aggregation
Preexisting
information
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
88
2021 YOLE RF REPORT COLLECTION
4G/5G Telecom Infrastructure -Technology and Market Trends 2021
Cellular RF Front-End Technologies for
Mobile Handset 2021
5G mMTC and IoT platforms -
Technology and Market Trends 2021
Infrastructure Technologies for 5G-enabled Applications 2021
Wireless Connectivity RF Front-
End Technologies for Consumer Market 2021
&
Focus on BTS,
Small cells, and
their RF
components
General outlook of all 5G related applications at
system level for infrastructure
Consumer
UE RFFE
components
(BT, WiFi,
NFC,
LTE/5G)
Massive Machine Type
Communication: LTE-M,
NB-IoT and other 5G / non
5G approaches
Legend: Is looked at in detail in
the following report
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
99
There has been a lot of movement in the IoT field with the arrival of 5G. With the development ofnetwork slicing, a technology mainly intended for IoT. Moreover, regulators are opening frequencies forprivate networks that private companies would directly license. Furthermore, new 5G connectivityindustrial modules are emerging.
In general, the value chain is starting to mature and now offers convenient solutions for IoTdevelopments using cellular connectivity; It is expected to solve most of the previously seen IoTadoption and development problems.
It also means that the volumes for 5G IoT and cellular IoT, in general, will start their ramp-up quitesoon.However, they won’t reach the unrealistic advertised volumes.
Indeed, cellular IoT will continue as a combination of niche applications without the awaited expansioninto personal area networks, i.e.,wearables and consumer electronics.
In this context, and following our reports on 5G telecom infrastructure and on RF front-end devicesfor mobile handsets, we decided to publish a report dedicated to cellular IoT applications and theimpact of 5G in this domain. We take this approach in order to best describe the general marketdynamics on one hand, and to offer realistic prospects regarding the market potential at the RF front-end level on the other.
WHY THIS REPORT?
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
1010
IOT SEGMENTATION BY FREQUENCIES
4G/5G public frequencies are those licensed by
MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) for billions of
dollars, and that cover a broad range of bands, from
low sub-1GHz bands to mmWave.
These frequencies are not solely meant for
consumer use. Actually, 5G’s main purpose is to
open new industries. Therefore, URLLC, mMTC and
eMBB have been developed on these bands to
address the problems of IoT.
These public frequencies can be used by enterprises
and industries through what is called network
slicing, where the network has been virtualized and
optimized for a specific industrial use. However, new
completely-private on-site infrastructure and hybrid
private/public solutions are starting to appear.
Implementation of these solutions are meant to
extend the reach of wireless connectivity to
multiple industries with network operators as
managers of the infrastructure.
Private frequencies exist in 4G/LTE in a few specific
countries only, without great success. These are now
expecting actual growth thanks to 5G.
Private frequencies are licensed frequency bands
that were not available to purchase by telecom
network operators. These bands, e.g. CBRS in the
US, 3.7GHz-3.8GHz in Germany, and band 38 in
France, are open to licensing locally by private
entities that get the right to use them on their own
network within a defined geographic area. For this,
the company works together with a network
infrastructure provider like Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei,
Samsung, etc., either directly, or with the help of a
telecom network operator eager to enlarge its
market by building a complete on-site
infrastructure.
However, these private frequencies are unable to
provide all of the advantages of 5G. They do not
allow the very high throughput of mmWave or the
low power consumption of sub-1GHz frequencies.
ISM frequencies are unlicensed frequencies. They are
currently used for IoT and so these are the bands
used for WiFi/Zigbee/Bluetooth/LoRaWAN/Sigfox
and so on.
The protocols built on those bands have not yet
found complete industrial acceptance, especially due
to potential interference and security issues.
Nevertheless, with the maturation of the IoT
industrial chain, more and more deployments on
these bands are starting to appear.
The main target is small businesses, as large
corporates may prefer licensed bands for their large
plants.
These unlicensed frequencies have individual
limitations, i.e. the range is too low for some, while
throughput is too low for others, but some new
joint developments are appearing, especially with
initiatives implementing the complementary WiFi
and LoRaWAN protocols from the Wireless
Broadband and LoRa Alliances.
4G/5G public frequencies 4G/5G private frequencies ISM (Unlicensed) frequencies
Non-5G cellular frequencies include 2G, used for telematics or in point-of-sale applications over the past decade. This represents market demand of millions of devices, but for a few
selected applications only. With the announced discontinuation of 2G, the 5G frequencies NB-IoT and LTE CATM are expected to claim this legacy market, creating their first sales. A
few private networks on 4G frequencies have also been established, but they are limited to early adopters with specific needs, and are a niche only, expected to be replaced by 5G
private networks. Therefore,we will not investigate these technologies in detail as it is expected that they will soon be replaced by 4G/5G.
Non-4G/5G public frequencies
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
1111
2018-2026 CELLULAR AND LPWAN IOT MODULE SHIPMENTS IN MUNITS
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
1212
2018-2026 CELLULAR IoT TECHNOLOGY PENETRATION RATES
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
1313
CELLULAR IOT MODULE MAKERS
78% of 2021
cellular IoT
market in
volume
22% of 2021
cellular IoT
market in
volume
Market shares in units/year.
Yole estimates, 2021.
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
1414
CELLULAR IOT MODULE MAKER MARKET SHARES IN VOLUME
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
1515
MARKET FORECAST, TECHNOLOGY BREAKDOWN, WAFER START
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
16
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
16
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021
Cellular RF Front-EndTechnologies for Mobile Handset 2021
Title of the report | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2021
YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
Yole Développement
17
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
17
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
RF Front-End Module Comparison2021 –Vol. 2 – Focus on 5G
Chipset
Title of the report | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2021
YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
System Plus Consulting
1818
The Yole Group of Companies, including Yole Développement,
System Plus Consulting, Knowmade and PISEO, are pleased to
provide you a glimpse of our accumulated knowledge.
Feel free to share our data with your own network, within your
presentations, press releases, dedicated articles and more. But
before that, contact our Public Relations department to
make sure you get up-to-date,licensed materials.
We will be more than happy to give you our latest results and
appropriate formats of our approved content.
Your contact: Sandrine Leroy, Dir. Public Relations
Email: [email protected]
HOW TO USE OUR DATA?
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
19About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020
CONTACTS
Western US & Canada
Steve Laferriere - [email protected]
+ 1 310 600 8267
Eastern US & Canada
Chris Youman - [email protected]
+1 919 607 9839
Europe and RoW
Lizzie Levenez - [email protected]
+49 15 123 544 182
Benelux, UK & Spain
Marine Wybranietz - [email protected]
+49 69 96 21 76 78
DACH (North Germany, Austria, Switzerland)
Neha CHAUDHURY - [email protected]
+49 172 97 47 248
South Germany & France
Martine Komono - [email protected]
+49 173 69 43 31
India and RoA
Takashi Onozawa - [email protected]
+81 80 4371 4887
Greater China
Mavis Wang - [email protected]
+886 979 336 809 +86 136 6156 6824
Korea
Peter Ok - [email protected]
+82 10 4089 0233
Japan
Miho Ohtake - [email protected]
+81 34 4059 204
Japan and Singapore
Itsuyo Oshiba - [email protected]
+81 80 3577 3042
Japan
Toru Hosaka – [email protected]
+81 90 1775 3866
FINANCIAL SERVICES
› Jean-Christophe Eloy - [email protected]
+33 4 72 83 01 80
› Ivan Donaldson - [email protected]
+1 208 850 3914
CUSTOM PROJECT SERVICES
› Jérome Azémar, Yole Développement -
[email protected] - +33 6 27 68 69 33
› Julie Coulon, System Plus Consulting -
[email protected] - +33 2 72 17 89 85
GENERAL
› Jean-Christophe Eloy, Marketing & Communication
[email protected] - +33 472 83 01 01
› Sandrine Leroy, Public Relations
[email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 89
› General inquiries: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80
Follow us on
REPORTS, MONITORS & TRACKS
5G mMTC and IoT Platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
