5 year Growth Allocation Project – Part A · Executive Summary ... sub-region as a model of coastal urbanity with a contemporary vibe, characterised by: an exciting coastal-urban

5 year Growth Allocation Project – Part A Background paper

February 2018

TRACKS-#68306817-v2-CITY_PLAN_-_CITY_PLAN_OUTCOMES_FROM_INFILL_AND_BUILDING_HEIGHT_-_ATTACHMENT_B Page 2 of 56

Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 3

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 5

1.1 Project overview .................................................................................................................. 5

1.2 Purpose ............................................................................................................................... 7

2. Context ........................................................................................................................................... 7

2.1 Guiding principles ................................................................................................................ 7

2.1.1 SEQ Regional Plan 2017 ............................................................................................ 7

2.1.2 City Plan ..................................................................................................................... 8

2.2 Key policy changes .............................................................................................................. 9

2.3 Previous work .................................................................................................................... 10

2.4 Relationship to other studies ............................................................................................. 10

2.4.1 Greenfield Land Supply Study .................................................................................. 11

2.4.2 Light rail stage 3 ....................................................................................................... 11

2.4.3 Building Height Strategy ........................................................................................... 12

3. Study area .................................................................................................................................... 15

4. Detailed methodology ................................................................................................................. 16

4.1 Methodology overview ....................................................................................................... 16

4.2 Determining the theoretical dwelling capacity .................................................................... 17

4.3 Conversion of theoretical dwelling capacity ....................................................................... 20

4.4 Key assumptions ............................................................................................................... 20

4.5 Project limitations ............................................................................................................... 21

4.6 Historical dwelling trends ................................................................................................... 21

5. Results of dwelling capacity assessment ................................................................................. 22

5.1 Theoretical dwelling capacity results ................................................................................. 23

5.2 Conversion of theoretical dwelling capacity results ........................................................... 25

6. Recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 28

7. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 29

Appendix A – Overview of the Preliminary Consolidation Capacity Assessment and Peer reviews ................................................................................................................................................ 30

Appendix B – Key assumptions ........................................................................................................ 35

Appendix C – Theoretical dwelling calculations ............................................................................. 41


Executive Summary

The Gold Coast’s City Plan is the statutory instrument for managing development and growth in the city, in a way which advances the State interests contained within the South East Queensland Regional Plan 2009 (SEQ Regional Plan 2009). The South East Queensland Regional Plan 2017 (SEQ Regional Plan 2017) was released by the State government in August 2017 and supersedes the previous SEQ Regional Plan 2009.

A key policy change resulting from the recent release of the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 has been the general increase of dwelling supply benchmarks and a stronger focus of facilitating a higher proportion of new dwellings within existing urban areas1 i.e. typically known as infill development. Another outcome to note from the recent release of the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 is the new 2041 planning horizon for dwelling supply benchmarks.

Due to the changes referenced above, this project is being undertaken to review the planned dwelling capacity of the consolidation area of the City. This will determine whether major amendments are required to support the city’s projected population and revised dwelling supply benchmarks, mandated by the SEQ Regional Plan 2017.

This project will be undertaken in two parts, Part A and Part B. This report relates to the Part A component of the project. Part A will determine the planned capacity of the City’s consolidation area. Part A will inform Part B by identifying whether City Plan needs major amendments to facilitate the new dwelling supply benchmarks set by SEQ Regional Plan 2017.

The following figure illustrates an overview of the methodology for Part A of this project.

Figure 1: Part A Project overview diagram

1Based on the definition provided within the SEQ Regional Plan 2017, the existing urban area is a statistical boundary used to determine

the consolidation and expansion areas. Consolidation area refers to development on land inside the existing urban area boundary provided within the SEQ Regional Plan 2017. Previously known as ‘infill development’. Expansion area refers to development on land outside the existing urban area boundary provided within the SEQ Regional Plan 2017. The extent of the City’s consolidation and expansion area is set out in Figure as part of Section 3.

Par

t A

Ph

ase

1 Assess the SEQ Regional 2017 dwelling supply benchmarks forthe city.

Calculate the developable area.

Calculate planned dwelling capacity based on planned residentialdensity and building height.

Consider the likelihood of planned dwellings beings realised.

Key steps Timing

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The methodology was undertaken and key assumptions made based on qualitative and quantitative data including development approval data, ABS census data, and discussions with relevant subject matter experts.

Finally, it is important that consolidation dwelling supply continues to be monitored and adjusted within the city as part of future updates to City Plan.

REDACTED


1. Introduction

The Gold Coast’s City Plan is the statutory instrument for managing development and growth in the city, in a way which advances the State interests and local interests. The SEQ Regional Plan 2017 was released by the State government in August 2017 and supersedes the previous SEQ Regional Plan 2009. The City Plan was prepared when the previous SEQ Regional Plan 2009 was in effect.

A key policy change resulting from the recent release of the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 has been the general increase of dwelling supply benchmarks, stronger focus of facilitating a higher proportion of new dwellings within existing urban areas2 Another outcome to note from the recent release of the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 is the new 2041 planning horizon for dwelling supply benchmarks.

1.1 Project overview

This project will be undertaken in two parts, Part A and Part B. This report relates to the Part A

component of the project.

Part A will determine the planned capacity of the City’s consolidation area. The planned capacity will

consider at a high level the likelihood of planned dwellings being realised as well as removing

constrained areas from this analysis. Part A will inform Part B by identifying whether City Plan needs

major amendments to facilitate the new dwelling supply benchmarks set by SEQ Regional Plan 2017.

Part B will identify areas of opportunities for future growth. These areas are considered to facilitate

two outcomes:

1) address any deficiency against the dwelling supply benchmarks found by Part A; and

2) identify areas of the city which should be prioritised for growth within the next 5 years.

By planning for growth within the next 5 years the city could realise the following benefits:

Infrastructure is delivered in a more focused and timely manner. This would result in reduced

costs of constructing and maintaining infrastructure.

2Based on the definition provided within the SEQ Regional Plan 2017, the existing urban area is a statistical boundary used to measure

consolidation and expansion development.

Consolidation area refers to development on land inside the existing urban area boundary provided within the SEQ Regional Plan 2017. Previously known as ‘infill development’.

Expansion area refers to development on land outside the existing urban area boundary provided within the SEQ Regional Plan 2017. The extent of the City’s consolidation and expansion area is set out in Figure as part of Section 3.

REDACTED


Figure 2: Project methodology

Par

t B

Ph

ase

3 P

has

e 2

Par

t A

Ph

ase

1

Assess the SEQ Regional 2017 dwelling supplybenchmarks for the city.

Calculate the developable area.

Calculate planned dwelling capacity based on plannedresidential density and building height.

Consider the likelihood of planned dwellings beingsrealised.

START

FINISH

Identify density uplift areas based on assessing attractorsand detractors of growth and core city shape values of:

o Transport;

o Amenity; and

o Employment.

Prioritise the density uplift areas against infrastructurecapacity.

Identify priority growth areas that support the next 5 yearsof growth.

Analyse the current market conditions in the identifiedpriority growth areas.

Recommend appropriate height, density and zoningchanges.

Key steps Timing

This report documents the steps and results of Part A.

REDACTED


1.2 Purpose

The purpose of this report, recognising it relates to Part A of the 5 year growth allocation project, is to:

i. Outline the key changes between the SEQ Regional Plan 2009 and the SEQ Regional Plan2017 in relation to dwelling supply benchmarks.

ii. Show the relationship of this project in relation to other relevant studies currently beingundertaken by the city.

iii. Determine the theoretical dwelling capacity of the consolidation area over the next 25 years(2016 – 2041), based on City Plan version 4.

iv. Provide an understanding on how conversion rates may impact the likelihood achieving thetheoretical dwelling capacity.

2. Context

2.1 Guiding principles

The city’s intentions for future development are outlined, shaped and guided by the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 and City Plan’s strategic intent. The below sub-sections provide a brief summary of each policy document. The key principles of these policies have been used to underpin the methodology and approach to this project.

2.1.1 SEQ Regional Plan 2017

SEQ Regional Plan 2017 provides a regional framework for growth management and sets planning direction for sustainable growth, global economic competitiveness of the SEQ region and high-quality living by a range of actions. It will guide how Council accommodates and plans for long term growth and will play a big part in shaping the city’s future.

City of Gold Coast as a major city in its own right and being SEQ’s second largest urban area is its own sub-region, the Southern sub-region, in Shaping SEQ. Shaping SEQ describes the Southern sub-region as a model of coastal urbanity with a contemporary vibe, characterised by:

an exciting coastal-urban lifestyle supported by world-class beaches, waterways andhinterland areas;

a highly urbanised coastal edge and historical, inland urban settlements and hinterlandtownships;

diverse living opportunities, including seaside urban centres, CBD, mixed-use, canal,suburban, rural residential and rural (including hinterland) living;

a strong focus on consolidation around major urban centres and along the light rail urbanrenewal corridor (and its future extensions);

its role as the southern gateway, connecting SEQ to coastal cities and towns of the southernstates and, increasingly, the world;

a maturing national- and global-oriented economy increasingly focused on productive andknowledge-intensive activity and creative industries;


a CBD supported by a strong network of urban centres, knowledge and technology precinctsand industry and enterprise areas, and a major domestic and international airport thatsupports tourism and broader economic activities;

its role as SEQ’s premier domestic and international tourism destination;

an integrated transport network that accelerates access within the sub-region, and providesstrong social and economic connections with the Metro sub-region;

nationally and internationally recognised natural assets and environmental values, includingworld-class coastal and hinterland areas. The SEQ Regional Plan 2017 differs from previousregional plans as it sets a policy direction of ‘efficient land use’ based on the realistic capacityof land for growth rather than the theoretical capacity of land. Maximising consolidation growthand accommodating the dwelling supply benchmarks is to be achieved through activelyfacilitating and promoting development in appropriate and well serviced locations.

2.1.2 City Plan

The City Plan’s strategic intent states that the Gold Coast is developing into a World Class City

renowned for strong population growth and excellent economic opportunities. The Gold Coast aspires

to achieve prosperity, connectivity and liveability across the city. Prosperity can be measured by

opportunities for employment. Connectivity is measured by how accessible different modes of

transport are. Liveability can be measured by the quality of amenity features.

To support strong projected dwelling targets in the SEQ Regional Plan and the Strategic intent of the

City Plan, strong population growth and focussing dwelling growth within the City’s consolidation area

is fundamental. Focusing our future growth within our consolidation area in a sustainable manner will

not only position our City to respond to global megatrends about fostering globally competitive cities,

protecting our natural environment, and using our existing resources more efficiently, but it will ensure

that the Gold Coast develops into a world class city that is supported by prestigious natural

landscapes and complemented by a truly distinct city form.


2.2 Key policy changes

As identified above, there have been key policy changes between the current SEQ Regional Plan 2009 and SEQ Regional Plan 2017 in relation to dwelling supply benchmarks. City Plan adopted dwelling supply is based on those mandated by the SEQ Regional Plan 2009.

The below table summarises the key policy points relating to dwelling supply benchmarks contained within the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 and the City Plan, noting the City Plan is considered to appropriately address the SEQ Regional Plan 2009.

Table 1: Key policy points and policy changes relating to dwelling supply benchmarks on the Gold Coast from the SEQ Regional Plan 2009 and SEQ Regional Plan 2017.

City Plan SEQ Regional 2017 Key changes

Targeted 130,000 additionaldwellings by 2031. Thisplanning horizon was 2016 –2036.

Targeted 158,900 additionaldwellings by 2041. Thisplanning horizon is 2016 –2041.

An increase of 28,900 dwellingsacross the city is sought afterwhen comparing the two planninghorizons.

City Plan used a 20 year horizonas opposed to the 25 yearhorizon adopted by the regionalplans.

A minimum of 87,000additional dwellings (66%)were to be provided by infill3

and redevelopmentopportunities in the existingurban area.

127,900 additional dwellings(80%) are to be provided inthe consolidation area of thecity.

An increase of 40,900 dwellingsare anticipated to beaccommodated within the city’sconsolidation area whencompared to the previousdwelling supply benchmark.

There is a stronger focus on infilldevelopment i.e. an increase tothe amount of new dwellingsupply sought after in the city’sconsolidation area.

43,000 additional dwellings(33%) were to beaccommodated throughbroad hectare opportunitiesin the balance area*.

31,000 additional dwellings(20%) are to be provided inthe expansion area4 of thecity.

The number of dwellings to besupplied within the city’sexpansion area has seen adecrease of 12,000 dwellingswhen compared to the previousplanning horizon.

3Infill development under the SEQ Regional Plan 2009 – 2031 is defined as new development that occurs within established urban areas

where the site or area is either vacant or has previously been used for another urban purpose. The scale of development can range from the creation of one additional residential lot to a major, mixed-use redevelopment.

4Expansion area refers to development on land outside the existing urban area boundary. Previously known as ‘greenfield development’.

The extent of the City’s expansion area is set out in Figure.


2.3 Previous work

The ‘Preliminary Infill Capacity Assessment’ was a body of work undertaken The assessment was undertaken to determine the realistic capacity of

the consolidation area.

The assessment was undertaken in two parts, the development viability assessment and technical planning assessment. The two forms of assessment were to account for market and site-based conditions that could affect the realistic uplift in density within the consolidation area.

In order to verify the veracity of the ‘Preliminary Infill Capacity Assessment’, peer reviews of both the development viability assessment and technical planning assessment components were undertaken. The peer reviews found several issues to the approach and outputs of the assessment. As a result it was recommended that a number of improvements be made in order to have confidence in the results.

Due to the timeframes set for a number of City Plan updates (required to be finalised in March 2018) these improvements cannot be made in time. As a result, this project is being undertaken to provide a theoretical capacity of the consolidation area to support City Plan updates.

Refer to Appendix A for an overview of the previous work undertaken and a summary of key issues raised as part of the peer review.

2.4 Relationship to other studies

Re-defining the policy framework to support a sustainable city shape is a complex body of work that requires holistic consideration of building height together with residential densities and infrastructure capacity, rather than just focusing on each aspect in isolation. Therefore, to give Council the confidence that the City can accommodate the right type of growth, in the right location, at the right time supported by the right type of infrastructure, Figure 2 summarises the necessary inputs required to make an informed position on building heights and densities throughout the city.


Figure 2: Key inputs influencing the re-definition of a sustainable city shape for the Gold Coast

2.4.1 Greenfield Land Supply Study

The Greenfield Dwelling Supply Analysis was adopted by Council on 7 June 2016 (G16.0607.011). This analysis was undertaken to confirm whether the city has an adequate supply of greenfield (expansion) land to cater for the city’s population growth for the next 20 years as outlined in City Plan, or whether there was a need to find additional land for new dwellings to cater for this growth. The analysis undertaken provided a determination of the realistic supply of dwellings in the expansion area and confirmed that the city does have an adequate supply of greenfield land for the next 20 years, to support the anticipated dwelling growth in City Plan. It also noted that further opportunities continue to exist to further augment the greenfield dwelling land supply in the city’s identified investigation areas.

The Infill Capacity Assessment was to be complementary to the Greenfield Land Dwelling Supply analysis to determine other component of dwelling growth in the city in the consolidation (infill) area.

2.4.2 Light rail stage 3

Light rail stage 3 is the corridor from Broadbeach to Coolangatta. This corridor is split into two (2) sub-stages, 3a) and 3b). Stage 3a) is from Broadbeach to Burleigh and a preliminary business case to support this project was endorsed by Council in late 2017.

REDACTED


2.4.3 Building Height Strategy

In July 2017, Council supported the Building Height Study. As part of this study, a Building Height Strategy, provided in Volume 2, offered Council with an opportunity to re-define the city’s building height policy, which is underpinned by a set of citywide principles and a framework that supports the city’s legibility, amenity and connectivity values.

As the Building Height Strategy alone cannot deliver a sustainable city shape this comes with the understanding that building height considerations cannot be decoupled from density considerations. Consequently, in October 2017, Council supported the following staged approach to re-define the city’s building height policy in City Plan.

Figure 3: Phased approach to redefining building heights within the city

Table 2: Proposed staged approach to support re-defining the city’s building height policy in City Plan

Proposed staged approach Proposed timeframes

Phase 1 a. Omit existing building height categories and introducenew building height categories in City Plan (includingterminology and mapping changes to reflect thischange).

b. Regulate building height in metres only.

c. Insert administrative definitions for each building heightcategory.

d. Modifying the Building height overlay map as the singlereference for building height for every property in the city.

e. Amend all references to building height in City Plan toalign with terminology changes.

f. Retain the 50% exceedance test in the StrategicFramework.

g. Rectify the identified major anomalies between zoning,height and density across the city (excluding the LightRail Stage 3 corridor and the Spit).

Endorsed by Council and submitted to State interest review in November 2017 (as part of the Major update 2).



h. Review the City Plan submissions that requiredreconsideration at the conclusion of the citywide buildingheight strategy to determine if any site specific changescan be supported (excluding the Light Rail Stage 3corridor and the Spit).

Phase 2 a. Utilise the findings from the Infill CapacityAssessment to inform potential updates to theBuilding height overlay map and Residential densityoverlay map, provided it aligns with the appropriateprovision of infrastructure.

b. Retain the 50% exceedance test in the StrategicFramework.

c. Rectify the remaining anomalies between zoning, heightand density across the city (excluding the Light RailStage 3 corridor and the Spit).

d. Review available existing development data to improvethe baseline for the building height and residentialdensity overlay maps (excluding Light Rail Stage 3corridor and the Spit).

e. Investigate the introduction of the Low-Medium DensityResidential Zone to further refine parts of the existingLow and Medium density residential zones.

f. Remove the optional Community Benefits Bonus Policyand replace with improved built form provisions that canbe applied more broadly.

g. Strengthen the scheme’s existing amenity controls toimprove built form outcomes.

h. Consider the introduction of an impact assessmenttrigger when exceeding the provisions shown on theResidential density overlay map.

To be finalised for submission to State interest review by March 2018.

Phase 3 a. Consider the outcomes of the preliminary Light RailStage 3A business case and investigate the height anddensity changes required to support this infrastructurespend.

b. Review available existing development data to improvethe baseline for the building height and residentialoverlay maps (excluding the remainder of the Light RailStage 3 corridor and the Spit).

c. Consider sequencing impacts on the required height and

The proposed updates within the Light Rail Stage 3A corridor will be presented to City Planning Committee by August 2018.



density changes.

Phase 4

a. Investigate the balance of the city’s heights and densities in conjunction with the infrastructure planning required to prepare LGIP Version 2.

b. Remove the 50% exceedance test from the Strategic Framework and replace with the citywide building height principles as presented in Volume 2 of the Building Height Study.

c. Investigate options to reinforce the role of density in relation to infrastructure provision in the city.

d. Consider various housing typologies and form based approaches to improve City Plan outcomes.

e. Investigate potential travel demand measures that can support the city’s Light Rail corridors.

To be finalised for submission to State interest review by early 2019.

As identified in the figure above, the Infill Study is a necessary input required to make an informed position on changes to building heights, residential densities and zonings throughout the City.

Owing to the timing of the business case that supports the Light Rail Stage 3 project and the timing proposed master planning exercise for the Spit, any proposed changes to building height and density identified in Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the staged approach will be specifically excluded.

The purpose of this report is to determine the planned capacity of the consolidation area of the City. This will assists in informing how much additional dwelling capacity is required to meet the dwelling targets by 2041.


3. Study area

The study area for this project is represented by the consolidation area set by the SEQ Regional Plan 2017. Figure 1 illustrates the extent of the City’s consolidation area and expansion area. It is important to recognise that the consolidation area is based on statistical area boundaries (SA2 level). As a result the consolidation area includes some areas which are not envisaged for urban development. The urban footprint provides clarity as to where urban development is sought to occur. Dwellings located outside of the urban footprint are generally limited to rural residential settings.

Figure 4: Extent of the City’s consolidation area and expansion area as defined under the SEQ Regional Plan 2017


4. Detailed methodology

To achieve the purpose of this report, specifically points (i.) and (ii.) identified in Figure 5, the methodology summarised and detailed in the following sub-sections has been adopted. The methodology of this investigation has been based on a first principles planning approach. Key assumptions and limitations of this method have been documented in Appendix B.

4.1 Methodology overview

Figure provides an overview of the methodology adopted to achieve points (i.) and (ii.) of this reports purpose.

Figure 5: Methodology overview to achieve points (i.) and (ii.) of the purpose.

ii. Provide an understanding on how conversion rates may impact the likelihood achieving the theoretical dwelling capacity.

Key steps:

1. Identify zones that envisage dwelling supply.

2. Remove land that is constrained.

3. Remove lots which are not suitable for development e.g. access easements and roads.

4. Total the amount of developable area based on the land remaining from the above steps.

5. Apply the planned residential density and building height separately to determine theoretical dwelling capacity of the developable area.

6. Calculate the theoretical capacity of special development areas based on their supporting legislation i.e. areas which are not regulated by City Plan.

7. Total the theoretical capacity from steps 5 and 6.

METHOD OVERVIEW

KEY OUTPUT – Theoretical dwelling capacity based on the envisaged residential density and envisaged building height.

i. Determine the theoretical dwelling capacity of the consolidation area over the next 25 years (2016 – 2041), based on City Plan version 4.

Key steps:

1. Determine macro and micro factors affecting conversion rates from planned dwellings to built dwellings.

2. Consider historical conversion rates by reviewing building approval data and new water metre data and apply to the theoretical dwelling capacity.

PART A PURPOSE

KEY OUTPUT – A range of dwellings likely to be constructed based on the applied conversion rates.


4.2 Determining the theoretical dwelling capacity

The key steps in determining the dwelling capacity have been detailed in the below table.

Table 3: Method to determine the theoretical dwelling capacity of the consolidation area over the next 25 years (2016 – 2041), based on City Plan version 4.

STEP METHOD OUTPUT

1

Identify zones which envisage new dwelling supply within the consolidation area.

A review was undertaken of City Plan zones to identify zones which envisage new dwellings within the consolidation area. The review referred to zone code purposes and the strategic framework. The zones identified include:

Low density residential zone; Medium density residential zone; High density residential zone; Centre zone; Neighbourhood centre zone; Innovation zone; Mixed use zone (excluding Fringe business precinct); Limited development zone; Special purpose zone (Special development areas precinct); Emerging communities zone; and Sport and recreation zone (Bundall equestrian precinct).

Spatial layer of land with zoning that envisages new dwellings.

2

Remove land which is constrained.

Absolute constraints which impose limitations on the extent of and suitability of development were identified so that the capacity focused on land, which was better suited to accommodate new dwellings. The absolute constraints identified in City Plan Version 4, include:

areas that have a flood depth exceeds 0.6m; areas that have a very high landslip rating; areas that have a very high bushfire rating; areas that are subject to protect in-situ environmental

outcomes (i.e. any mapped vegetation in Biodiversitycorridors and only high value vegetation outside Biodiversitycorridors);

areas that are subject to Medium and General PriorityVegetation, where they also overlap with the City Plan’sKoala Habitat Areas and State/Local Significant Specieslayers; and

areas that contain wetland and waterway buffers to amaximum of 10 metres.

For further detail on how the absolute constraints mapping was created, refer to Appendix B.

A revised spatial layer of land with zoning that envisages new dwellings. This spatial layer excluded land which included one or more absolute constraints.

3Remove lots which are not suitable for development.

Lots that were associated with land, not considered developable were identified and removed from the spatial layer prepared as

A revised spatial layer of land with zoning that envisages new dwellings.


STEP METHOD OUTPUT

part of Step 2. Where lots were identified as having one or more of the following characteristics were removed:

easement; waterway; airport; and road corridor.

This spatial layer excluded land, which included one or more absolute constraints AND any lots which had one or more of the identified characteristics.

4

Total the amount of developable area based on the land remaining from the above steps.

To calculate the developable area of the city’s consolidation area, the following approach has been used:

i. Where the land was completely unconstrained from the absolute constraints, the following calculation was applied to the site area:

Site cover (acceptable outcome) x gross site area x planned height = GFA

ii. Where the land was partly constrained from the absolute constraints, the following calculation was applied to the site area:

Site cover (acceptable outcome) x net site area x planned height = GFA

iii. Where the land was within a centre or neighbourhood centre zone assumptions were made regarding what percentage of future development would represent new dwellings. Refer to Appendix C for further details regarding these assumptions.

iv. For the purposes of this analysis, it was assumed that the calculated GFA would be converted to dwellings, based on:

1 bed = 50m2; 1 storey = 3.5m; there is one (1) person per bedroom; there are 2.42 persons per dwellings; and where a lot is 400m2 and under, 1 dwelling per lot was

assumed.

A theoretical achievable GFA for each zone based on the referenced approach.

Note: this output is only relevant when calculating the theoretical number of dwellings based on envisaged building height.

5

Apply the envisaged residential density and building height separately to determine theoretical dwelling capacity of the developable area.

Density

To calculate the theoretical dwelling capacity, in relation to envisaged density, the following calculation was applied:

(Site area / Envisaged density) / 2.42 = Theoretical dwelling

Theoretical dwelling capacities for two scenarios:

1. Envisaged density as the limiting factor.

2. Envisaged building height as the limiting factor.


STEP METHOD OUTPUT

capacity based on envisaged density

For the purposes of this analysis, it was assumed that there are 2.42 persons per dwelling.

Building height

To calculate the theoretical dwelling capacity, in relation to envisaged building height, several calculations were developed given the unique characteristics associated with each zone. Refer to Appendix C for each calculation.

6

Calculate the theoretical capacity of special development areas based on their supporting legislation i.e. areas which are not regulated by City Plan.

Initially special development areas which are regulated by legislation separate to City Plan were identified. These areas include:

Southport PDA; Parklands PDA; Royal Pines; Couran Cove; Cypress Gardens; Jupiters Casino; Robina; Sanctuary Cove; and Hope Island.

For those areas of the city’s consolidation area that are regulated by other legislation (i.e. areas included within the Special Development Areas), analyse the total development capacity of these localities based on their approved masterplans, structure plans, acts, regulations, or other statutory instruments.

For further detail on the total development capacity of these localities, refer to Appendix B.

Theoretical dwelling capacity for all special development areas within the consolidation area.

7

Total the theoretical capacity from Steps 5 and 6.

Total the theoretical dwelling capacity based on the outputs of Steps 5 and 6. The totals represent the following two scenarios:

1. Envisaged density as the limiting factor and number ofdwellings from special development areas.

2. Envisaged building height as the limiting factor and number ofdwellings from special development areas

Theoretical dwelling capacity for the two scenarios referenced.

For detailed calculations implementing this methodology refer to Appendix C.


4.3 Conversion of theoretical dwelling capacity

To gain an appreciation of how much growth can be accommodated within the city’s consolidation area under the current policy framework, the likely conversion of theoretical planned capacity to built capacity needs to be understood.

Whilst market commentators and economics track development approvals to building approval data, there is very little understood about planned dwellings to built dwellings. This knowledge gap is acknowledged within the SEQ Regional Plan, which suggests Local Governments and the State Government needs to monitor this more closely to gain a better understanding of realistic dwelling supply, especially in consolidation areas.

However, projecting forward in the property market is very challenging due to the many and varied factors affecting development cycles, and demand versus supply. These include macro and micro economic and planning factors. Therefore, historical conversion rates will be used as a basis for understanding the likelihood of similar conversion rates continuing within the consolidation area. The most recent 5 year period, from 2011 to 2016 is a good basis for understanding the city’s historical conversion rates and will be analysed in greater detail herein.

The methodology will include:

1. Determine macro and micro factors affecting conversion rates from planned dwellings to built dwellings. This is included within Appendix B.

2. Consider historical conversion rates by reviewing building approval data and new water metre data, collected over the last 5 years, against the calculated theoretical dwelling capacity

4.4 Key assumptions

Key assumptions have been made in developing the methodology for Part A. These assumptions have been summarised below and are further detailed in Appendix B and C.

Dwelling supply benchmarks for this project have been adopted from the mandated targets set by the SEQ Regional Plan 2017.

The dwelling supply benchmarks have been planned for in 5 year cohorts. The dwelling supply has been equally distributed across all 5 year ranges. Typically dwelling supply is envisaged within the later years of the planning horizons. This approach allows the city to be flexible to market conditions.

This project will be based on the 2041 planning horizon mandated by SEQ Regional Plan 2017 as this is the most recent policy document and will need to be incorporated into future updates of the City Plan where relevant.

The Light Rail Stage 3 corridor and Spit masterplan area have been included in calculating the theoretical dwelling capacity. However, these areas will be excluded from Part B of the project as separate planning investigations are underway to determine the number of dwellings envisaged for these areas.

Aged care facilities, rooming accommodation, short-term accommodation and secondary dwellings do not contribute to the projected dwelling targets.


For areas within special development areas planned dwelling capacity was derived based onthe relevant legislation or governing document.

For land within the centre or neighbourhood centre zones a percentage of anticipatedresidential dwellings was applied to enable analysis of these zones.

Assumptions have been made to calculate an estimated number of dwellings when applyingthe envisaged density and building height to developable areas. These assumptions consider,number of bedrooms per dwelling, storey height and the number of persons per bedroom.

4.5 Project limitations

This investigation utilises a first principles planning approach to determine the theoretical capacity of the consolidation area of City Plan. It does not include a lot by lot assessment and the assumptions made have been on a zone level basis.

As such it does not provide an indication of the realistic future dwelling supply (as this would be

required to be undertaken on a lot by lot basis). However, provides an indication of where growth has

the potentially to occur in the future.

This project is only to be used for inform zoning, height and density amendments as part of Major

Update 3.

4.6 Historical dwelling trends

In understanding the likelihood of realising the theoretical dwelling capacity, the historical trends have been examined. The following conclusions are drawn from reviewing Table 2 and Table 3:

i. The Gold Coast has not been achieving its average annual dwelling targets over thepast 10 years, both overall and within the city’s consolidation area. This is despitehaving record number of development applications being received and approved inrecent times.

ii. Brisbane and Moreton Bay have been achieving or exceeding their average annualdwelling targets, however other LGA’s have not been achieving.

iii. It is noted that exceeding dwelling targets may lead to other consequences such asmarket oversupply.

Table 4: Historical dwelling target trends identified within the SEQ region

Local government

SEQRP 2009-2031 total dwelling target

Average annual target

Average annual

building approvals

2006-2011

Average annual

building approvals

2011-2016

Average annual net dwelling growth

2011-2016

Brisbane 156,000 6,240 6,932 12,726 6,943

Gold Coast 143,000 5,720 4,959 4,623 3,501


Local government

SEQRP 2009-2031 total dwelling target


Average annual

building approvals

2006-2011

Average annual

building approvals

2011-2016


2011-2016

Ipswich 118,000 4,720 2,197 1,977 1,910

Lockyer Valley 11,500 460 377 240 202

Logan 70,000 2,800 1,835 1,932 1,775

Moreton Bay 84,000 3,360 4,088 3,555 3,541

Redland 21,000 840 1,013 922 789

Scenic Rim 15,000 600 204 235 170

Somerset 6,500 260 265 171 181

Sunshine Coast (incl. Noosa) 98,000 3,920 3,037 2,843 2,801

Toowoomba (Urban Extent) 31,000 1,240 798 1,045 889

SEQ Total 754,000 30,160 25,719 30,269 22,703

(Source: SEQ Regional Plan – Grow theme background paper)

Table 5: Percentage of dwelling targets achieved within the city’s consolidation area between 2011 to 2016

Local government

SEQRP 2009-2031

Consolidation dwelling

target


Average annual

building approvals 2006-2011

Average annual

building approvals 2011-2016


2011-2016

% of average annual target delivered as

net new dwellings

2011-2016

Brisbane 138,000 5,520 6,658 12,383 6,776 123%

Gold Coast 97,000 3,880 3,382 2,938 2,209 57%

SEQ Total 374,000 14,960 17,040 21,128 14,789 99%

(Source: SEQ Regional Plan – Grow theme background paper)

5. Results of dwelling capacity assessment

The following sub-sections provide the results of the method undertaken and detailed in Section 4.

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5.1 Theoretical dwelling capacity results

The below tables summarise the theoretical dwelling capacity based on zone and scenario (envisaged density or envisaged building height).

Table 6: Theoretical dwelling capacity of the consolidation area over the next 25 years (2016 – 2041) based on City Plan version 4.

Zone

Theoretical dwelling capacity (Envisaged density as limiting factor)

Theoretical dwelling capacity (Envisaged building height as limiting factor)

Column 4

Difference as a percentage

Low density residential zone

93,175 93,1750%

Medium density residential zone

57,426 368,040540%

High density residential zone

23,397 244,810946%

Centre zone 26,092 80,123 207%

Neighbourhood centre zone

1,612 7,00168%

Innovation zone 1,368 2,305 370%

Mixed use zone (excluding Fringe business precinct)

950 4,466370%

Limited development zone

282 3,642119%

Emerging communities zone

1,271 1,91350%

Sport and recreation zone (Bundall equestrian precinct)

283 54592%

Special purpose zone (Special development areas precinct)

38,376 63,10764%

All of the above zones 244,232 869,127 255%

When comparing the theoretical dwelling supply with the SEQ Regional Plan dwelling targets, the following is found.

The below tables compare the theoretical dwelling capacity of City Plan with the SEQ Regional Plan dwelling targets.


Table 7: Theoretical dwelling supply using residential density and building height compared with SEQ Regional Plan dwelling targets

Theoretical dwelling supply – residential density

Theoretical dwelling supply – building height

SEQ Regional Plan dwelling targets - based on population

growth (demand)

City Plan consolidation areas

205,856 dwellings

City Plan consolidation areas

806,020 dwellings

Current dwellings in consolidation area

196,276 dwellings

SDA/PDA areas 38,376 dwellings

SDA/PDA areas 63,107 dwellings

Additional dwellings required over 25 years

127,900 dwellings

Total dwellings planned

244,232 dwellings

Total dwellings planned

869,127 dwellings

Total dwellings required

324,176 dwellings

Compared within SEQ Regional Plan dwellings required

Shortfall of 79,944 dwellings

Compared within SEQ Regional Plan dwellings required

Excess of

544,951 dwellings

It is evidenced above that if relying on the residential density provisions of City Plan, the 25 year dwelling targets are not achieved, i.e. 244,232 planned dwellings compared with 324,176 targeted dwellings. However, the residential density capacity of City Plan is significantly lower than the building height capacity of City Plan (almost 4 times lower, 244,232 compared with 865,767).

It is evidence that there is a significant misalignment between City Plan’s density and height provisions which are recommended to be addressed.

The envisaged density scenario is not considered to provide an accurate representation of the theoretical capacity of the city. Based on recent outcomes of development approvals density is an aspect of development which has greater flexibility when having regard to the strategic framework and relevant overall outcomes. As a result theoretical dwelling capacity based on envisaged building height is considered to provide greater accuracy in demonstrating the theoretical dwelling capacity of the city’s consolidation area. As building height is the stronger policy position within City Plan, it is recommended that the building height calculations be used to determine the theoretical dwelling supply of City Plan. Further analysis of the theoretical capacity based on building height provisions is provided below.

As there are currently 196,276 dwellings built within the consolidation, this needs to be deducted from the total dwellings planned (869,127 minus 196,276), leaving 672,851 additional dwellings planned.

Therefore, City Plan (based on building height provisions) has approximately 5 times (500%) the theoretical number of planned dwellings compared with the 2041 dwelling targets, i.e. comparing 672,851 additional theoretical dwellings with the 127,900 additional dwellings target.


The final step (step 4) of the methodology is to consider the likelihood of this theoretical dwelling supply being realised.

5.2 Conversion of theoretical dwelling capacity results

There are many factors and variables affecting the likely conversion of a planned dwelling to a built dwelling. Whilst these factors can be understood at any given time, due to market forces constantly evolving and changing, it is impractical to predict over a 25 year period how many planned dwellings will convert into built dwellings.

Appendix D contains a summary of the factors affecting conversion rates and a historical analysis of conversion rates with other cities.

In summary, the key factors affecting planned capacity translating to built outcomes is:

1. Macro and micro economic conditions (refer to Appendix 5)2. Property value and attributes, e.g. cost of development site, age of building3. Development uplift opportunities as per City Plan and recent nearby approvals4. Attractiveness of a place, including its locational attributes of employment, transport and

amenity.

Table 9: Sensitivity analysis of the rate of planned dwellings to built dwellings

Conversion Rates Percentage of conversion

Number of dwellings translating from

planned (building height) to built

Low 0% – 10% 0 – 66,949

Medium 10 – 30 % 66,949 – 200,847

High 30 – 50 % 200,847 – 334,745

Very high 50 – 75 % 334,745 – 502,118

It is noted that the consolidation dwelling target from SEQ Regional Plan is sitting at 127,900 additional dwellings over the next 25 years. To achieve this, a conversion rate of 20% is required over 25 years or 4% every 5 years.

An analysis of eight (8) sample suburbs within the consolidation area has been undertaken to determine the historical conversion rates based on new water metre data and building approvals data. These sets of data both have their limitations, for example not all new dwellings have associated water metres and not all building approvals get constructed. However, it is considered by using both data sets independently, the historical conversion rate can be concluded with a high degree of confidence.

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Table 10: Analysis of historical conversion rates of sample suburbs using water metre data and building approval data

Suburb

Theoretical dwellings (building height)

New water metres 2011

to 2016

% conversion over 5 years

Building approvals 2011

to 2016

% conversion over 5 years

Biggera Waters 30,402 968 3% 951 3%

Broadbeach 77,048 498 1% 619 1%

Burleigh Heads 18,047 128 1% 335 2%

Mermaid Beach 25,211 185 1% 222 1%

Miami 11,115 97 1% 178 2%

Palm Beach 30,408 453 2% 378 1%

Southport 138,411 1780 4% 3618 7%

Surfers Paradise 194,479 1764 1% 1292 1%

Consolidation area total

525,123 5873 1% 7593 2%

Coomera (Greenfield area)

101,537 2043 2% 2167 2%

Applying the historical conversion rates to the theoretical planned dwelling capacity of City Plan (672,851 dwellings), it is expected that over the next 25 years the City has approximately 67,285 dwellings of realistic dwelling supply. This is significantly less than the 127,900 dwelling targeted by the SEQ Regional Plan 2017.

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Therefore, it is concluded that whilst the city has adequate theoretical dwelling capacity (672,851 dwellings compared with 127,900 dwellings) to meet the SEQ Regional Plan dwelling targets, the realistic dwelling capacity (67,285 dwellings compared with 127,900 dwellings) is lower than required.


6. Recommendations

Whilst it is acknowledged that the factors affecting conversion rates are largely influenced by market forces and therefore mostly outside of Councils control, the following recommendations are made to improve these findings:

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7. Conclusion

This project has been undertaken as a result of the recent release of the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 and the subsequent changes in policy regarding dwelling supply benchmarks for the Gold Coast. A key policy change resulting from the recent release of the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 has been the general increase of dwelling supply benchmarks and a stronger focus of facilitating a higher proportion of new dwellings within existing urban areas.

Recognising the above this report has:

i. Outlined the key changes between the SEQ Regional Plan 2009 and the SEQ Regional Plan2017 in relation to dwelling supply benchmarks.

ii. Shown the relationship of this project in relation to other relevant studies currently beingundertaken by the city.

iii. Determined the theoretical dwelling capacity of the consolidation area over the next 25 years(2016 – 2041), based on City Plan version 4.

iv. Provided an understanding on how conversion rates may impact the likelihood achieving thetheoretical dwelling capacity.

It is important that consolidation dwelling supply continues to be monitored within the city to inform future updates to City Plan.

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Appendix A – Overview of the Preliminary Consolidation Capacity Assessment and Peer reviews

The ‘Preliminary Infill Capacity Assessment’ was a body of work undertaken The assessment was undertaken to determine the realistic capacity of

the consolidation area.

The assessment was undertaken in two parts, the development viability assessment and technical planning assessment. The two forms of assessment were to account for market and site-based conditions that could affect the realistic uplift in density within the consolidation area.

The following headings provide an overview of the assessments undertaken and the key issues raised as part of the peer reviews.

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Appendix B – Key assumptions

# Investigation Assumptions Identified limitation of assumption

Growth target assumptions 1. This body of work will be informed by the SEQ Regional Plan

2017 – 2041 growth targets for the Gold Coast sub-region.

2. Based on the SEQ Regional Plan 2017 - 2041 growth targets, it is assumed that the projected growth has been projected based on 5 year cohorts broken down in the following way

As growth over the next 25 years is not likely to be equally distributed, the projected growth for the Gold Coast has been based on an average, with some years experiencing more growth and others experiencing less growth.

Years Range Additional dwellings required in the Consolidation area

Additional population growth identified in the Consolidation area

2016 – 2021 0 – 5 years 25,580 61,952

2021 – 2026 5 – 10 years +25,580 51,160 +61,952 123,904

2026 – 2031 10 – 15 years +25,580 76,740 +61,952 185,856

2031 – 2036 15 – 20 years +25,580 102,320 +61,952 247,808

2036 – 2041 20 – 25 years 127,900 dwellings 309,760 people

Planning horizon assumptions 3. To calculate the theoretical dwelling capacity of the City’s

consolidation area, a 25 year planning horizon was taken from 2016 to 2041 to align with the SEQ Regional Plan planning horizon.

Zoning assumptions 6. For the purposes of calculating the theoretical dwelling capacity

of the consolidation area, the following zones have been included:

Low density residential zone;

Limited development zone contemplates residential development where constraints can be appropriately



Medium density residential zone; High density residential zone; Centre zone; Neighbourhood centre zone; Special purpose zone; Mixed use zone (not the precinct); Limited development zone; Emerging communities zone; and Sport and recreation zone (Bundall equestrian

precinct).

managed. The code assessable residential density is 1 dwelling per lot and therefore this has been used.

7. The theoretical capacity was based on their relevant policy frameworks. Where the development rights of properties are regulated under City Plan, the planned density and planned building height provisions were used, in addition to planned site coverage, to calculate the theoretical dwelling capacity. Where properties are regulated under a separate Act, for example the Economic Development Act 2012 and Local Government (Robina Central Planning Agreement) Act 1992, the relevant provisions within those acts were used including planned density, heights and total planned dwelling numbers.

8. Where a supplementary document was available to support the statutory instrument, for example the Masterplan for the Gold Coast Cultural Precinct, the development specifics were used to further refine the theoretical dwelling capacity calculations. It is noted however that development approval data was not used to validate lot by lot calculations as the analysis was undertaken zone by zone, except in centre zone where each centre was considered individually.

Land use assumptions 10. Based on how a private dwelling and non-private dwelling is

defined by ABS, High care facilities (Aged Care Facilities), Student Accommodation (Rooming Accommodation) and Short-term Accommodation do not contribute to meeting the projected dwelling targets.

11. Due to the fact that a Secondary dwelling is considered to be part of a Dwelling house, it does not contribute to the meeting the projected dwelling targets. However secondary dwellings do contribute housing to the city and therefore as uncounted additional dwelling supporting our population growth.

Additional dwellings not counted as part of this analysis.

Statistical assumptions 12. The average household size within the city is projected to be 2.42

persons per dwelling. This is calculated by using the future dwelling numbers and future population numbers from the SEQ

The above average household size does not align with the



Regional Plan 2017 - 2041. Specifically, by dividing the expected additional population growth to 2041 (i.e. 351,100 people) by the total additional dwelling numbers (158,900 dwellings).

current ABS statistics from the 2016 census data, which indicates that:

Gold Coast has234,639 dwellings;and

Gold Coast has576,900 peopleresiding in the city.

This equates to currently 2.45 persons per dwelling. This figure has not been used as it is based on current numbers, rather than projections.

13. When converting the number of persons to number of bedrooms, it has been assumed there is 1 person per bedroom. This has been calculated by comparing the current average number of persons per dwelling with the current average number of bedrooms per dwellings.

Based on ABS statistics from 2016 census, the current average number of bedrooms per dwelling is 2.98. Also based on 2016 census, the current average persons per dwelling is 2.675. As such, there is on average currently 0.9 persons per bedroom. This has been rounded up to 1 person per bedroom for ease of application.

14. To convert the gross floor area (GFA) of theoretical building floor space to dwelling numbers, 50m2 GFA per bedroom has been assumed. This assumption has been derived by taking the total area of a single storey and dividing it by the potential number of bedrooms it supports. An example is below.

5This household size figure has been used as opposed to the projected household size as identified in Growth Assumption # 7, to ensure

that the comparison is like-for-like, i.e. current numbers with current numbers.



15. An average 3.5 metre floor to floor height has been assumed in order to covert building height in metres to storeys as part of determining the theoretical GFA for development in particular residential zones. This assumption has been made on the basis that whilst the majority of development will be residential in nature, there will be instances within the consolidation area where commercial uses will be integrated into the development. Furthermore, buildings have roof caps and roof structures, which contribute to the overall building height in metres.

Following the analysis of recent development approvals as case studies, 3.5 metres was considered an appropriate average height per storey. Consultation with the City Architect was also undertaken which confirmed that this was an appropriate height, on average, to be applying within the consolidation area of the city.

It is acknowledged that in some zones, such as Centre zone, the average floor height may be greater than 3.5 metres. However, due to the significant extent of residential uses expected within all zones considered, 3.5 metres of overall storey height is considered appropriate. Conversely, whilst minimum floor to ceiling height for habitable rooms is 2.7 metres as per the BCA, when considering the requirement for services and structural elements, 3.5 metres is considered appropriate overall.

Constraints

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Appendix C – Theoretical dwelling calculations


Calculations used to determine the city’s theoretical capacity

Scenario 1 Analysis: Using planned density as the limiting factor to determine the city’s theoretical capacity

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For more information P 1300 GOLDCOAST (1300 465 326) W cityofgoldcoast.com.au

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