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Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
5 Trends Shaping the
Solar Technology Industry
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
2
0.00
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0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Average solar panel manufacturing cost ($/W)
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
From 2021, over 500 million solar
panels will be manufactured
globally every year, allowing
continued cost reduction via
economies of scale.
#1. The scalability of
solar is driving down
manufacturing costs
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
As cost continue to fall, the scale of solar deployment will accelerate with
installations occurring at all points of the grid
Off-Grid1%
Residential roof-top12%
Commercial roof-top
32%
Ground-mount55%
630 GW of
photovoltaic (PV)
systems will be
installed from
2018 to 2022
Solar panels can be
installed in applications
ranging from small off-
grid systems to GW-scale
power plants
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
4
#2. Solar is increasingly competitive with
conventional sources of power generation
In 2016 and 2017, more solar was
installed globally than any other
type of power generation.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Typical global thermal generation costs
(e.g. gas, coal)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Price paid for electricity generated by large-scale solar in Germany (€/MWh)
Even in Germany (where weather conditions aren’t perfect), solar competes with
thermal power generators
Feed-in tariff prices
Winning tender bids
Note: In 2014, Germany switched from offering
a fixed feed-in tariff incentive scheme, to a
competitive tender system
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
6
Distributed generation, such as solar, now
plays a very significant part in the overall power
mix. Recent years have given rise to electricity
‘prosumers’ – customers who now generate
and consume their own electricity using solar
panels.
#3. Solar will play a key part in the
decentralization and digitalization of the power
system
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
The “Energy Transition” – creating an intelligent, efficient, clean, customer-centric
electricity network
“Thermal
Power Generation”
Centralised
Power “Grid”
Decentralised
Power “Grid”
“The Electricity Network”
“Conventional
Power Generation”
“Distributed
Generation”
“Solar”
“Wind”
“Renewables”
“Energy
Storage”
“Behind-the-Meter”“DERMs”
“IoT”
“Internet of
Energy”“Microgrids”“EVs”
“VPP”
“Cloud”
“Blockchain”
“Centralised
Infrastructure”
“Vehicle-
to-grid”
“Industry
4.0”
DecentralisationIHS Markit predicts that by 2020, over 5% of power in
Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom will be generated
by PV systems on the customer’s side of the meter
DigitalizationA range of innovative new digital technologies are being
deployed in order to improve the efficiency, usability and
reliability of a new distributed power system.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2017 2022
Middle East South and Central America
Europe Africa
North America Asia Pacific
Global installed solar PV capacity
$600B
investment
#4. Investments in
solar will continue
to increase, with
growth driven by
Asia
© 2018 IHS Markit
Total solar installations will
increase by 154% from 2017 to
2022, spurring additional
investment of $600 billion.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Source: IHS Markit
(GW
)
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
China will continue to dominate global solar manufacturing, and will also remain a
major end market - Asia accounts for 92% of supply and 60% of demand
0%
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60%
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90%
100%
Series 1 Series 2
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70%
80%
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100%
Series 1 Series 2
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100%
Series 1 Series 2
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Series 1 Series 2
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90%
100%
Series 1 Series 2
China USAIndia EuropeRest of Asia
= share of global demand
(2018 – 2022)
= share of global solar panel
manufacturing capacity (2018)
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
10
#5. Global corporations will play a growing
role in the solar industry
Attracted by the growing opportunity
of solar power and attractive returns,
as well as pressure to increase the
sustainability of their businesses,
major global corporations are
investing into the solar industry.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global corporations continue to step in to claim their stake in the solar industry
Total $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$Acquired US solar panel manufacturer, Sunpower,
for $1.3 billion in 2011.
$1B $2B $3B
Tesla $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$Acquired US solar installer,
Solarcity, for $2.6 billion in 2016.
BP $$$$
Shell $$$$$Acquired US solar developer, Silicon
Ranch for $217 million in 2018
Apple $$$$$$Invested $300 million in the China Clean
Energy Fund in 2018.
Acquired UK solar developer,
Lightsource, for $200 million in 2017.
Select investments in solar PV by major global corporations
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
About IHS Markit energy technology market intelligence services:
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Production capacity, production, shipment, price and cost forecasts for polysilicon,
wafers, cells and modules. Analysis of technology trends and manufacturer
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(supply and demand).
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1313
Edurne Zoco, Director – Energy Technology
Sam Wilkinson, Associate Director – Energy Technology
technology.ihsmarkit.com
Twitter - @IHSMarkitTech
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