33
118 TERI University-Ph.D. Thesis, 2010 Diffusion Analysis of Biogas for Cooking in rural Households 5.1. Overview Biogas technology promotion assumes significance due to its multiple environmental, economic and social benefits for rural people. Biogas plants provide clean and convenient fuel for cooking and lighting; enriched organic manure for use in agricultural fields and reduce the drudgery and improve health of women in rural areas (MNRE, 2007; Ravindranath et al, 2000). A brief history of biogas development in India is included in Appendix 5.1. (Table A5.1.1). A national level programme was designed by MNRE to tap an estimated total potential of 12 million biogas plants. Alternate estimates of family-type biogas potential are available from both the official and non-official sources, which vary from 12 million to 22 million family type plants in the country based on cattle wastes and ownership pattern of livestock (Planning Commission, 2002). The cumulative installation of biogas plants in India is 3.9 million in 2007, which is approximately 32% of the estimated potential of 12 million. Three States – Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have a biogas potential of over 1 million. However, the penetration levels are 39%, 17%, 21% respectively. Gujarat, Kerala, Maharashtra, Mizoram and Sikkim have achieved penetration levels of 70% and above. It is also observed that States with lower biogas potential have achieved higher penetration levels. Figure 5.1 indicates the State wise potential and achievements. Table A5.1.2 also gives biogas penetration levels by States. The diffusion of biogas plants is mainly driven by MNRE through its own institutional network. Some NGOs and private players also participate in the programme implementation. 5

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118

TERI University-Ph.D. Thesis, 2010

Diffusion Analysis of Biogas for

Cooking in rural Households

5.1. Overview

Biogas technology promotion assumes significance due to its multiple

environmental, economic and social benefits for rural people. Biogas plants

provide clean and convenient fuel for cooking and lighting; enriched organic

manure for use in agricultural fields and reduce the drudgery and improve

health of women in rural areas (MNRE, 2007; Ravindranath et al, 2000). A

brief history of biogas development in India is included in Appendix 5.1. (Table

A5.1.1). A national level programme was designed by MNRE to tap an estimated

total potential of 12 million biogas plants. Alternate estimates of family-type

biogas potential are available from both the official and non-official sources,

which vary from 12 million to 22 million family type plants in the country based

on cattle wastes and ownership pattern of livestock (Planning Commission,

2002). The cumulative installation of biogas plants in India is 3.9 million in

2007, which is approximately 32% of the estimated potential of 12 million.

Three States – Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have a

biogas potential of over 1 million. However, the penetration levels are 39%, 17%,

21% respectively. Gujarat, Kerala, Maharashtra, Mizoram and Sikkim have

achieved penetration levels of 70% and above. It is also observed that States with

lower biogas potential have achieved higher penetration levels. Figure 5.1

indicates the State wise potential and achievements. Table A5.1.2 also gives

biogas penetration levels by States.

The diffusion of biogas plants is mainly driven by MNRE through its own

institutional network. Some NGOs and private players also participate in the

programme implementation.

5

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Diffusion Analysis of Biogas for Cooking in rural Households

TERI University-Ph.D. Thesis, 2010

Figure 5. 1: State wise biogas potential and cumulative achievements up to March 2007

(in numbers)

5.1.1. Policy initiatives

The national policies to promote biogas mainly stem from rural energy and

development policies. Biogas had been promoted by MNRE since 1980s. The

NPBD was launched as a central sector scheme with additional subsidy being

provided by some of the states to promote the programme. Table 5.1 gives the

budgetary allocation for biogas sector. A major part of this central allocation

normally goes for capital subsidy of biogas plants. Table 5.2 provides the pattern

of central subsidy for setting up of Plants from 1989-90 onwards. The Table

gives subsidies for 2-3 m3 capacity plants (which are the most commonly

installed capacities. There are also special privileges for poor, marginal farmers,

North Eastern States and certain other categories. The amount of subsidy has

largely been same although in percentage terms, it has declined from 25 - 35% in

1990 to 15% in 2004-5. The increase in subsidy to Rs. 2100 for 1 m3 plant and

Rs. 27oo for 2 – 6 m3 plant has led to increase in the share of subsidy to 30% of

the capital cost of a typical 1 – 3 m3 biogas plant.

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

AP

Arunachal 

Assam

Bihar 

Goa

Gujrat

Haryana

Him

achal

J & K

karnataka

Kerala

MP

Mahara …

Manipur 

Meghal…

Mizoram

Nagaland

Orrisa

Punjab

Rajesthan

Sikkim

Tamilna …

Tripura UP

West  …

A&N …

Chandig…

Dadra & …

Delhi

Pondich…

Chattisg…

Jharkha…

Uttaran…

Cumulative Achievements

Estimated Potential

Cumulative Achievement

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Table 5. 1 Five-Year Plan outlay for biogas sector (in Million Indian Rs.)

Sectors 1980-85 1985-90 1992-97 1997-02 2002-07 2007-2012

Total Allocation

996 4120 8570 38000 71670 104600

Biogas 500 2000 3200 2860 3850 2500

% of total for RE

50 49 37 8 5 2

Source: Five Year Plans of Government of India

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Table 5. 2 Capital subsidy for biogas plants (in Rs.)

Year Rs.

(for 2 m3 per day capacity)

Rs.

(for 3 m3 per day capacity)

1989-90 1560 1900

1990-91 1700 2100

1991-92 2200 2600

1992-93 2200 2600

1993-94 1800 2000

1994-95 1800 2000

1995-96 1800 2000

1996-97 1800 2000

1997-98 2000 2000

1998-99 1800 1800

1999-2000 1800 1800

2000-01 1800 1800

2001-02 1800 1800

2002-03 1800 1800

2003-04 1800 1800

2004-05 2700 2700

2005-06(NMMP) Not specified Not specified

2006-07 Not specified Not specified

Source: MNRE Annual Reports

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Although some States provide additional subsidies, it is mostly integrated

through other rural development schemes and are not targeting biogas alone.

The coordination of the programme at the district level is critical for mobilizing

such additional State funds. Household loans are available but only few access

loans for biogas plants. Usually, even if a household takes a loan from local

commercial bank, which is refinanced by the National Bank for Agriculture and

Rural Development (NABARD), the experience is that since biogas plant by itself

do not yield higher incomes, the defaults in repayment of debt to the bank are

very high (as per NABARD). Also, it is difficult to recover loans for various

political and social reasons.

The elements of the National Biogas Development programme (NPBD) –

capital subsidy, cash incentives and training and support are briefly discussed

below.

Setting up of target by MNRE is central to the NPBD implementation and is

based on past performance of physical targets vs. achievements, fund availability

and demand. Usually, efforts are made to achieve or exceed the targets as the

budget allocation is influenced by the actual achievements. It is observed that

the diffusion trend is closely linked to the targets (Figure 5.2). The gap between

the targets and achievements has however gradually widened over the years.

Although the reasons are not well documented, evaluation indicates that the

non-performance of plants and lack of effective marketing could be reasons for

shortfalls in achievements. It could be also due to high target fixation and rising

costs of the biogas plants without corresponding increase in subsidy.

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Diffusion Analysis of Biogas for Cooking in rural Households

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Figure 5. 2 Diffusion of biogas in India over 25 years (1981-2007)

The institutional framework which is a multi tier and multi agency structure

comprises mainly the nodal departments in the States, State sector corporations,

departments and NGOs. There are a few enterprises which operate on a

commercial basis. The agencies are also required to monitor and supervise

construction, operation and disbursement of subsidy as per monitoring and

supervision guidelines given by MNRE. In order to have better monitoring and

supervision, MNRE carries out independent evaluation of the projects from time

to time and involve Panchayat level officials for verification of subsidy. Cash

incentives, turnkey fees and promotional support are the key components of

engaging these agencies and individuals.

MNRE allocates funds for training, research and development. The allocation

for R & D, however, has been meager (2% of programme funds). There are nine

biogas training centres. These centres conduct four types of training

programmes for masons, turnkey workers, staff engaged in biogas development

and the users, against the target assigned by MNES annually. These training

programmes are assessed in terms of the number of trainings and personnel

trained.

In India several types of biogas plant designs have been developed. The two

most widely used are the floating drum (KVIC design) and fixed dome (modified

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

MW

YEAR

Actual

Target

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Chinese design), which are approved by MNRE along with some more models.

The share of the fixed dome plant is significantly higher due to its low cost and

relative ease of maintenance. However, the subsidy is not linked to any specific

model but to capacity, location and target users.The majority of biogas plants are

built by masons in collaboration with the officer or inspector at the Block

Development Office and the actual user.

The programme is now implemented as National Manure Management

Programme (NMMP), modified scheme of NPBD. However, most of the above

elements of NPBD remain same.

5.1.2. Approach to biogas diffusion analysis

The biogas programme is implemented nationally all over India. Even during

this phase of liberalisation of India’s economy, biogas remained as a socially

oriented subsidy-driven programme of the government of India. Since the

programme is completely run by the government machinery, it is realised that

the regional variation, cultural factors and socioeconomic characteristics of

households impact the diffusion. Five States are selected regionally (north, east,

west south and central) based on potential and penetration levels for detailed

analysis of diffusion of biogas plants. The period of diffusion has been

considered from 1991- 2007, when significant share of biogas plants were

installed. The States selected for detailed analysis include UP with highest

potential of 1.93 million biogas plant but at 21% penetration levels followed by

West Bengal with 39% penetration levels in the Eastern region, Maharashtra

with 70%, Karnataka with 58% and MP with 17%. Table 5.3 summarises the

potential and penetration levels.

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Table 5. 3 Select states for biogas diffusion analysis

Region/States Potential

(in Numbers)

Penetration levels in Installed as % of potential

Northern Region

Uttar Pradesh 1938000 21

Rajasthan 915000 7

Eastern Region

West Bengal 695000 39

Orissa 605000 38

Bihar 733000 17

Western Region

Gujarat 554000 70

Maharashtra 897000 82

Southern Region

Karnataka 680000 58

Andhra Pradesh 1065000 39

Tamil Nadu 615000 34

Central Region

Madhya Pradesh (MP) 1491000 17

Source: MNRE Annual Reports

5.2. Biogas diffusion curves and Best Curve Fits

As per the methodology described in Chapter 3, diffusion curves are drawn and

best fit using numerical method for reference values are attempted for

subsequent optimisation for the actual given potential. The reference values

obtained directly from the model equation for observed installation of biogas are

not valid. For example, in the case of West Bengal, p =-0.06. Due to negative

values of p, minimization of Sum of Squares of Error (SSE) Sum of Squares has

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Diffusion Analysis of Biogas for Cooking in rural Households

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been done through the use of an algorithm which computes the SSE for a range

of values of the diffusion coefficients within the boundary conditions – fixed m

and positive p and q values. The Best Fit for the Optimum values using the same

model equation is used for analysis of biogas diffusion in the selected States. The

analysis for each of the State follows.

5.2.1. Karnataka

Karnataka falls in the southern region and has actively implemented biogas

programmes since 1981. The diffusion trend observed from 1992 onwards is

given in Figure 5.3. It has achieved 58% of the estimated potential. The

projections indicated in Figure 5.4 shows that biogas diffusion is in the growth

phase although the growth is predetermined by the targets. At this rate, the

potential could be realised by the year 2050. The initial installation N0 at t =t0 is

76154.

Figure 5. 3 Observed cumulative biogas plant installations in Karnataka

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

(in Nos.)

Year(s)

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Diffusion Analysis of Biogas for Cooking in rural Households

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Figure 5. 4 Biogas plant diffusion in Karnataka

5.2.2. Maharashtra

The State has achieved 82% of the estimated potential. The initial installation

given by N0 at t =t0 is 452131 biogas plants. The projections based on computed

p and q values show that biogas is already in high growth phase and will decline

in the coming years. The realisation of the balance 18% assuming no

replacement or additional demand will take another 30-40 years. Please refer

Figures 5.5 and 5.6 show the cumulative numbers and model based estimates.

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

in numbers

YEAR

Best Fit for p=0.011, q=0.12, m=680000

Observed

Fitted

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Figure 5. 5: Observed cumulative biogas plant installations in Maharashtra

Figure 5. 6 Biogas plant diffusion in Maharashtra

400000

450000

500000

550000

600000

650000

700000

750000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(in Nos.)

Year(s)

Observed

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

in numbers

YEAR

Best Fit for p=0.02, q=0.07, m=897000

Observed

Fitted

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5.2.3. Madhya Pradesh

The State has achieved 17% of the estimated potential. It is observed that the

diffusion is in the initial stages. The initial installation given by N0 at t =t0 is

44,104 biogas plants. The projections indicate that the potential will be realised

only by the end of this century. Please see Figures 5.7 and 5.8.

Figure 5. 7 Observed cumulative biogas plant installations in Madhya Pradesh

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Cumulative

 Installed biogas plants (in Nos.)

Year(s)

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Figure 5.8 Biogas plant diffusion in Madhya Pradesh

5.2.4. Uttar Pradesh

Figure 5.9 gives the observed biogas diffusion trend in the State of UP. Figure

5.10 presents the projections of the diffusion curve based on the optimised

values for the estimated potential. In UP, it is observed that the growth in biogas

installations which is predetermined based on the targets set by the Government

is still at the early stages of diffusion. The initial installation up to 1991 is

estimated to be 210,283. The State will need another 50 to 60 years to realise

full potential assuming the existing pattern of diffusion.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

199219992006201320202027203420412048205520622069207620832090

in numbers

Year

Best Fit for p=0.01, q=0.024, m=1491200

Observed

Fitted

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TERI University-Ph.D. Thesis, 2010

Figure 5. 9 Observed cumulative biogas plant installations in Uttar Pradesh

Figure 5. 10 Biogas plant diffusion in Uttar Pradesh

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

( in Nos.)

Year(s)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062

in numbers

YEAR

Best Fit for p=0.002, q=0.099, m=1938000)

Observed

Fitted

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5.2.5. West Bengal

The State has achieved 39% of the estimated potential. The initial installation

given by N0 at t =t0 is 56297 biogas plants, which is the number of biogas plants

installed up to the year 1991. Figure 5.11 gives the observed cumulative biogas

plant installations. From the diffusion curve shown in Figure 5.12, it can be seen

that the biogas diffusion has entered the growth phase. The projections again

indicate at least another 30 years to achieve significant potential realisation.

Figure 5. 11 Observed cumulative biogas plant installations in West Bengal

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

( in Nos.)

Year(s)

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Figure 5. 12 Biogas plant diffusion in West Bengal

5.3. Interpretation of diffusion parameters

The value of p is highest for Maharashtra at 0.025 and lowest for the State of

Uttar Pradesh at 0.002. Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal with p

values at 0.011, 0.01 and 0.007 are in a close range. Except for Madhya Pradesh,

all other States have similar q values. q is highest for Karnataka and lowest for

Madhya Pradesh. But, it can be seen that the values of p and q in general are

low. In order to make effective comparison, t* is computed. As outlined in

Chapter 3, the value of (1/m)(dN/dt) at t* have also been computed for

comparison.

Maharashtra has the lowest t* as compared to other States. A higher value of N0

influences the diffusion rate. From the model results, it can be interpreted that

despite the programme completely driven by the government, the parameters of

diffusion are different indicating that conditions and policies at the State levels

have an influence on the diffusion. Table 5.4 summarises the different

parameter values obtained for biogas diffusion in different States.

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057

in numbers

Year

Best Fit for p=0.007, q=0.1, m=695000

Observed

Fitted

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Table 5. 4 Summary of diffusion parameters optimized for the given potential

State/Country Given Potential (m)

Assumed N0 up to 1991

N0/m P q t* dN(t)/dt at t*

(dN/dt)/m at t*

Karnataka 680000 76154 0.11 0.011 0.12 18 19840 0.029

Madhya Pradesh 1491000 44104 0.03 0.01 0.024 26 17912 0.012

Maharashtra 897000 452131 0.50 0.025 0.07 11 16363 0.018

Uttar Pradesh 1938000 210283 0.11 0.002 0.099 39 21503 0.011

West Bengal 695000 56297 0.08 0.007 0.10 25 16670 0.024

Note: Assumed based on the targets wherever cumulative data was unavailable.

5.4. Identifying select set of indicators (based on key policy and non policy factors)

As can be seen from the results above, different States have different p and q

values. The policy push factors include:

1) The central subsidy, cash incentives, etc.

2) Land availability; landholdings and ownership influences installation of

biogas plants at the households level.

3) Institutional capacity: Capacity at the institutional mechanisms at the

State level and their support; the availability of technical staff, trained

masons and other repair infrastructure influence the performance and

acceptance of the biogas systems. Also, the targets are achieved in States

which have active nodal agencies, NGOs and Departments.

4) Alternative options such LPG, fuel wood, etc. Although the penetration

rate of LPG is lower, rural households use mixed fuels to meet their

various energy needs and usually all options such as fuel wood, kerosene

and LPG are used as per costs and convenience.

5) Water availability; a critical input for sustained operation of biogas

plants. Many parts of rural areas are prone to drought conditions and the

overall water availability is also decreasing. Also, the average size of

households and cattle also influence the cooking fuel usage patterns.

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6) Institutional financing: Finance has been mainly provided through the

refinancing schemes of NABARD to the national banks. The cost benefit

analysis made by NABARD based on an approved model by MNRE

estimates a net annual income of approximately Rs. 2300/- on a capital

investment of Rs. 16250/-. NABARD’s funding to biogas projects is

shown as “others” that also include financing for Storage/Market Yards,

Forestry/Waste Land Development, RIDF, Bullock and Bullock Carts,

Bio- gas and credit flow through Private sector commercial banks for

which sector-wise break-up is not available and this constitutes approx.

20% of the total term loan for agriculture and allied activities.

5.5. Estimation of weights for different diffusion factors and development of Composite Policy Index (CPI).

The weights for the identified factors are determined based on literature review

and data available from Census and Evaluation Reports. The main policy led

factors comprise of:

1) Water availability

2) Land availability

3) Alternate fuel availability (LPG penetration rates)

4) Institutional capacity

5) Central and additional State Subsidy

6) Institutional financing

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Table 5. 5 Estimation of weights

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Weight

water availability 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 0.210

land availability 1 3 3 3 3 3 16 0.258

Alternative fuels 1 3 3 3 3 13 0.210

institutional capacity 1 3 3 3 10 0.161

Additional subsidy 1 3 3 7 0.113

Institutional financing 1 2 3 0.048

Total 62

The identified factors are quantified as follows:

1) Water and land availability were assessed through the relevant

development indicators and Census data

2) LPG penetration rates are indicative of the access to better fuels and

influence households to opt for biogas plants. It is seen in many villages

that the biogas plants owners also have access to LPG, which they use as

a standby and fuel wood for water heating etc.

3) Institutional capacity is measured as a percentage of non functional

plants in the State

4) Capital subsidy; additional subsidy by the State or incentives as per

information available and discussions with experts.

5) Institutional financing (NABARD schemes)

Actual inputs to the CPI and computations are provided in Appendix A.2. Table

A5.2.1 shows the basis of measure for key diffusion factors. The policies and

implementation of biogas programme are reviewed based on the identified

factors and multiplied by the weights determined to obtain the score. Table 5.6

gives a summary of the ranking for different States. Except for Uttar Pradesh,

the scores are similar. However, the actual performance of the States is very

different.

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Table 5. 6 : State - Level Policy Ranking (CPI) for biogas sector development

Kar Maha UP MP WB

1. Land availability

0.126 0.210 0.042 0.168 0.084

Rank 3 4 5 2 1

2. Water availability 0.206 0.155 0.052 0.103 0.258

Rank 2 1 5 4 3

3. Alternate fuels 0.129 0.210 0.080 0.096 0.088

Rank 3 1 5 4 2

4. Institutional capacity 0.130 0.122 0.074 0.131 0.161

Rank 2 1 5 3 4

5. Capital subsidy 0.113 0.113 0.056 0.056 0.113

Rank 1 1 1 1 1

6. Institutional financing 0.048 0.039 0.010 0.019 0.029

Rank 1 2 5 4 3

Overall 0.753 0.847 0.313 0.574 0.733

Rank 2 1 5 4 3

5.6. Significance of the above parameters

The parameters p, q, t*, dN/dt at t*, NGRTI are examined for their correlation

with the ranking of the policies based on CPI. The value of the CPI provide

ranking in the expected manner but the values for three States with distinct

differences in biogas penetration levels score in the range 0.73 – 0.85. The

scores do not reflect the highest level of penetration levels in Maharashtra at

82% of the estimated potential. Karnataka and West Bengal have penetration

levels significantly lower than Maharashtra at 58 and 39 % respectively.

Although the diffusion trend is driven by targets, these States are in different

growth phases as the targets are predominantly based on the past performance.

Figures 5.13 and 5.14 show the correlation between t* and CPI based rank and

NGRTI.

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Figure 5. 13 t* vs. CPI (rank)

Figure 5. 14 t* vs. NGRTI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 1 2 3 4 5

t* CPI based Rank

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

t* NGRTI (%)

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Thus, biogas diffusion seems to be influenced by factors other than the usual

policy push factors identified above. Based on further analysis, the following

factors are identified to have influence on biogas diffusion:

1) Socioeconomic conditions of the households: The socio-economic

background of the households among other things is considered as an

important factor to influence decisions making for adoption of biogas.

Since the financial support extended by the government to the

beneficiaries in the form of subsidy is restricted to hardly 25-30 percent

of the cost of a plant for different categories of beneficiaries, a major

share of the cost is raised through own resources or private/institutional

borrowing, the economic background of the beneficiaries is invariably

referred before making a final choice. Thus, household income is an

important factor for diffusion. This also closely linked with other factors

such as land holding patterns. Most poor in rural areas do not own land

which is a key input for biogas installations.

2) The culture of cooking and openness for new fuel options vary regionally.

Some of the northern states are found lagging in adoption of biogas

plants as compared to western or southern States.

3) Changes in livestock; most evaluation reports mention about the

changing livestock – cattle, goat etc. in villages. These are affected by

natural calamities, weather conditions and income.

The above factors are used again to compute the CPI to assess the significance of

the values. It is found that although the order of ranking does not change much,

the values obtained based on socio economic conditions, cultural factors and

livestock changes bring out significant difference in values and further signifying

the impacts of these factors on biogas diffusion. Table A 5.2.2 , Table A 5.2.3 (a

and b), Table A 5.2.4 (a and b), Table A 5.2.5 (a and b) and Table A 5.2.6 (a and

b) shows the values (for both policy and non policy driven factors )computed for

the five States Table 5.7 summarises the CPI values estimated for different

States. Maharashtra with score of 0.98 is highest followed by Karnataka. The

estimate for West Bengal is also higher as compared Uttar Pradesh and Madhya

Pradesh.

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Table 5. 7 Summary of CPI and ranking for biogas

CPI Karnataka Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh

West Bengal

Policy factors

0.753 0.847 0.313 0.574 0.733

Rank

2 1 5 4 3

Non -policy 0.791 0.984 0.552 0.642 0.765

Rank 2 1 5 4 3

Diffusion analysis of biogas shows that the policy driven factors alone are not

adequate to accelerate adoption. The States with better socioeconomic

conditions and culturally progressive are perhaps adopting new technologies

such as biogas plants faster. The regional variation due to diversity (resources,

capacity) seems to impact on biogas diffusion.

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Appendix 5. 1

Table A 5.1. 1 : Biogas development in India - a Historical Perspective

1897 Biogas from human waste utilized to meet lighting needs at the Matunga Leper Asylum, Bombay

1939 Principal of biogas production from cattle dung was first evolved at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, new Delhi

1951 Field- worthy model of floating drum type biogas plant developed

1961 Khadi and village Industries Commission (KVIC) took up floating drums type biogas plant for extention

1961-73 In 12 Years only about 7000 Biogas plants could be built

1974-80 During this period of 7 years about 100,000 biogas plants were built

1979 Fixed dome janta model biogas plant developed by the Biogas Research Station, Ajitmal, Etawa, UP

late 1980's

UASB (Up Flow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket) Technology developed for medium and large size biogas plant for processing urban and industrial biogas wastes

1981-82 National project for Biogas Development (NPBD) to cater to family size biogas plants launched

1986 Deenbandhu model fixed dome biogas plant developed by Action for food production (AFPRO), New Delhi

1988 Community/ Institutional biogas programme launched

1988 BIS standard adopted for biogas burners

1989-90 BIS standard adopted for KVIC type Pragati and Deenbhandhu with brickmasonry models of biogas plants

1990 Ferro-cement domes digester and Fibre Glass Reinforced Plastic (FRP) gas holder for floating dome type biogas plants adopted

1990's Solid state biogas plant design for Janta and Deenbandhu models developed

1995 Flexi model biogas plant made of rubberized nylon fabric approved

1995 Urban and Industrial waste based Energy Generation Programme launched

1999 Deenbandhu ferrocement model with in-situ technique adopted

2002 Prefabricated RCC based fixed Dome Krishna Model Biogas Plant developed by

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Shivsadan Renewable Energy Research Institute, Sangli, Maharashtra

2002-03 NPBD modified and renamed as National Biogas And Manure Management Programme (NBMMP)

2007 High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) material based complete prefabricated and portable Deenbandhu model biogas plant and dome taken up for field trial. HDPE based floating dome type complete biogas plants under consideration

Technology getting scaled up for upgradation of biogas having 95% methane from its natural composition of 55-60 %

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Table A 5.1. 2 : State-wise biogas penetration levels (as on 2007)

States Estimated Potential Cumulative Achievement Potential Harnessed (%)

Chandigarh 1400 97 7

Dadra & Nagar 2000 169 8

A&N Islands 2200 137 6

Pondicherry 4300 573 13

Mizoram 5000 3570 71

Nagaland 6700 2892 43

Sikkim 7300 5959 82

Arunachal 7500 2345 31

Goa 8000 3807 48

Delhi 12900 677 5

Meghalaya 24000 4586 19

Tripura 28000 2549 9

Manipur 38000 2128 6

Uttaranchal 83000 7354 9

Jharkhand 100000 2543 3

Himachal 125000 45046 36

J & K 128000 2212 2

Kerala 150000 114183 76

Haryana 300000 50266 17

Assam 307000 59942 20

Chhattisgarh 400000 23399 6

Punjab 411000 83771 20

Gujarat 554000 387251 70

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Orissa 605000 228295 38

Tamilnadu 615000 211242 34

Karnataka 680000 396681 58

West Bengal 695000 273287 39

Bihar 733000 125306 17

Maharashtra 897000 735196 82

Rajasthan 915000 66990 7

AP 1065000 419884 39

MP 1491000 258747 17

UP 1938000 413052 21

12339300 3934136 32

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Appendix 5. 2

Table A 5.2. 1 : Inputs to CPI development

Performance of biogas plants

Example: Index

Value

per capita income (av of 7 years 1999-2006)

Literacy levels/Culture/ awareness;

Census, 2001

LPG Penetration Rate Census, 2001

Karnataka 76.9% in use (2002)

95% (92-93)

0.81 20435

67.04 18.3

Madhya Pradesh

77.5% (2002)

79.7 % (92-93)

0.81 13390

64.11 13.6

Maharashtra 71.8 % (2002)

80.7%

(92-93)

0.75 28187 77.27 29.7

Uttar Pradesh

43.5

48.6%

0.46 10802

57.36 11.3

West Bengal 95.2% (2002)

90.8% (92-93)

1 19639

69.22 12.5

Source: Planning Commission, 2002; MNRE Annual Report, 1992-93; Census, 2001.

The above values are normalised using the highest value as 1. For. Example,

West Bengal with very high performance levels scores 1 and all other values of

the State are divided by 95.2% to discount performance levels relative to other

States. Wherever scoring was not possible, ranking was given and normalised.

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Table A 5.2. 2 a): Policy Index – Karnataka

Weight Score Total

Water availability (Ranking) 0.210 0.60 0.13

Land availability (ranking) 0.258 0.80 0.21

Alternate fuel availability ( LPG penetration rates) 0.210 0.62 0.13

Institutional capacity 0.161 0.81 0.13

Additional subsidy 0.113 1.00 0.11

Institutional financing 0.048 1.00 0.05

0.75

Table A 5.2. 2b): Non Policy Index – Karnataka

Weight Score Total

Socioeconomic 0.500 0.72 0.36

culture 0.421 0.87 0.37

livestock changes 0.079 0.80 0.06

0.79

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Table A 5.2. 3 a): Policy Index – Maharashtra

Weight Score Total

Water availability (Ranking) 0.210 1.00 0.21

Land availability (ranking) 0.258 0.60 0.15

Alternate fuel availability ( LPG penetration rates) 0.210 1.00 0.21

Institutional capacity 0.161 0.75 0.12

Additional subsidy 0.113 1.00 0.11

Institutional financing 0.048 0.80 0.04

0.85

Table A 5.2. 3b): Non Policy Index – Maharashtra

Weight Score Total

Socioeconomic 0.500 1.00 0.50

culture 0.421 1.00 0.42

livestock changes 0.079 0.80 0.06

0.98

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Table A 5.2. 4 a): Policy Index - Madhya Pradesh

Weight Score Total

Water availability (Ranking) 0.210 0.80 0.17

Land availability (ranking) 0.258 0.40 0.10

Alternate fuel availability ( LPG penetration rates) 0.210 0.46 0.10

Institutional capacity 0.161 0.81 0.13

Additional subsidy 0.113 0.50 0.06

Institutional financing 0.048 0.40 0.02

0.57

Table A 5.2. 4 b): Policy Index - Madhya Pradesh

Weight Score Total

Socioeconomic 0.500 0.48 0.24

culture 0.421 0.83 0.35

livestock changes 0.079 0.70 0.06

0.64

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Table A 5.2. 5 : a) Policy Index - Uttar Pradesh

Weight Score Total

Water availability (Ranking) 0.210 0.20 0.04

Land availability (ranking) 0.258 0.20 0.05

Alternate fuel availability ( LPG penetration rates) 0.210 0.38 0.08

Institutional capacity 0.161 0.46 0.07

Additional subsidy 0.113 0.50 0.06

Institutional financing 0.048 0.20 0.01

0.31

Table A 5.2. 5: b) Non Policy Index - Uttar Pradesh

Weight Score Total

Socioeconomic 0.500 0.38 0.19

culture 0.421 0.74 0.31

livestock changes 0.079 0.60 0.05

0.55

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Table A 5.2. 6 : a) Policy Index - West Bengal

Weight Score Total

Water availability (Ranking) 0.210 0.40 0.08

Land availability (ranking) 0.258 1.00 0.26

Alternate fuel availability ( LPG penetration rates) 0.210 0.42 0.09

Institutional capacity 0.161 1.00 0.16

Additional subsidy 0.113 1.00 0.11

Institutional financing 0.048 0.60 0.03

0.73

Table A 5.2. 6: b) Policy Index - West Bengal

Weight Score Total

Socioeconomic 0.500 0.70 0.35

culture 0.421 0.90 0.38

livestock changes 0.079 0.50 0.04

0.77