4Cast analysis – harvest year 2015 Winter Wheat · 2018-04-04 · analysis – harvest year 2015 Winter Wheat TUDOR DAWKINS TECHNICAL DIRECTOR. COMMENTARY: ... Revelation iscount

4Cast analysis –

harvest year 2015 Winter

Wheat

TUDOR DAWKINSTECHNICAL DIRECTOR

COMMENTARY:

• Inputs and yields documented from 195 farms in 2015

• Data from 1469 fields for yield and crop inputs

• Data from 13,466 ha

4CAST FINDINGS FROM 2015 WW HARVEST

AVERAGE PROCAM YIELDNOW OVER 10 TONNES PER HECTARE

Yields (t/ha) in ranked order - 2015

0.00

3.50

7.00

10.50

14.00

195 188 178 186 135 121 192 141 122 37 68 101 96 105 73 118 62 165 55 50 127 76 142 93 128 86 56 35 67 61 85 29 2

Yiel

d t/h

a

Grower number

Average 10.08 t/ha, range 4.2 – 13.1 t/ha

• Yields from 4Cast for 195 farms ranged from 4.2t/ha – 13.1 t/ha

• The average yield was 10.08 t/ha, the highest recorded since records began

COMMENTARY:4CAST FINDINGS FROM 2015 WW HARVEST


• Yields from 4Cast for 125 farms ranged from 6.2t/ha – 12.2 t/ha

• The average yield was 9.25 t/ha

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Wheat Yield (DEFRA ave) t/ha Procam (ave) t/ha Procam upper quartile (ave) t/ha

Yiel

d t/h

a

Year

AVERAGE YIELD COMPARISONS

(T/HA) 2000 - 2015 WW

• The average yields from 4Cast for harvest 2015 from 195 farms was 10.08t/ha

• The average yield for the ProCam upper quartile group (top 25%) was 11.29t/ha

• The DEFRA average yield for harvest 2015 was 8.8 t/ha

• The ProCam average yield for 2015 harvest was 1.2t/ha higher than the DEFRA average

• The ProCam upper quartile (top 25%) average yield was 2.49t/ha higher than the DEFRA average

• Since 2000, the average yield has been 0.8t/ha higher than the DEFRA average

• Since 2000, the average yield from ProCam’s upper quartile group has been 2.2 t/ha higher than the DEFRA average


0

15

30

45

60

Win

ter W

heat

Win

ter W

heat

1

Win

ter W

heat

2

Win

ter W

heat

Milli

ng

Win

ter W

heat

Fee

dCost/t Ave Cost/t top 25%

Cos

t of p

rodu

ctio

n £/

t pro

duce

d

COST PER TONNE AVERAGESTO PRODUCE. AVE AND TOP 25%

• Average cost per tonne to produce was £51.50*

• For the top 25% the average cost per tonne to produce was £40.61*

• Average costs/t for 1st wheats were lower than for 2nd wheats (£49.40/t vs £56.32/t)

• For the top 25% the values were £40.24/t for 1st wheats and £42.90/t for 2nd wheats

• The average cost of production per tonne for milling wheat was £53.92/t vs £52.60/t for feed wheat

• For the top 25% the figures were £41.58/t for milling wheat vs £39.42/t for feed wheat


*Variable cost

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Reve

latio

n

Visc

ount

WW

NS

Con

quer

or

Sols

tice

Cor

dial

e

Evol

utio

n

Scou

t

Cru

soe

Skyf

all

Cla

ire

Leed

s

Gal

lant

KWS

Sant

iago

J B

Die

go

Hec

tare

s so

wn

to e

ach

varie

ty

Number of hectares 13466

HECTARES SOWN BY VARIETY

HARVEST YEAR 2015 - TOP 15 VARIETIES

0

4

8

12

16

Reve

latio

n

Visc

ount

WW

NS

Con

quer

or

Sols

tice

Cor

dial

e

Evol

utio

n

Scou

t

Cru

soe

Skyf

all

Cla

ire

Leed

s

Gal

lant

KWS

Sant

iago

J B

Die

go

% M

S nu

mbe

r of h

ecta

res

sow

n to

eac

h va

riety

Number of hectares 13466

% MS BY HECTARES SOWN

HARVEST YEAR 2015 - TOP 15 VARIETIES

• The top three varieties on a ha basis were

• J B Diego (14.7% MS) • KWS Santiago (9.12% MS) • Scout (6.26% MS)


0

225

450

675

900

Gro

up 1

Gro

up 2

Gro

up 3

Gro

up 4

Num

ber o

f fie

lds

sow

n by

Gro

up

Number of fields 1469

FIELDS SOWN BY GROUP

HARVEST YEAR 2015

• Over half (57%) of grower’s fields were sown to group 4 wheats

• 21% of growers fields were sown to milling wheats (Group 1)

• 15% of grower’s fields were sown with Group 3 wheats and the remaining 7% of fields were sown with Group 2 wheats


9.4

9.65

9.9

10.15

10.4

Gro

up 1

Gro

up 2

Gro

up 3

Gro

up 4

Yiel

d of

WW

(t/h

a) a

s in

fluen

ced

by G

roup

sow

n

WINTER WHEAT YIELDAS INFLUENCED BY GROUP - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• Those growers who grew Group 4 wheats achieved higher yields (average 10.33 t/ha)

• Those growers who grew Group 1 wheats achieved lower average yields (9.74 t/ha) than those who grew Group 4 wheats

• Growers of Group 2 wheats had higher average yields (9.87 t/ha) than those who grew Group 1 wheats

• The lowest yields were achieved (9.51 t/ha) from Group 3 wheats

• Consideration needs to be given to the economic returns from the different groupings as price per tonne sold is also important


0

175

350

525

700

Gro

up 1

Gro

up 2

Gro

up 3

Gro

up 4

Cost/t to produce £/ha GM

Cos

t per

tonn

e to

pro

duce

(£) a

nd G

M (£

/ha)

as

influ

ence

d by

Gro

up s

own

COSTS BY GROUPCOST/T TO PRODUCE (£) AND GROSS MARGIN/HA (£) - BY GROUP 2015

• The best returns £684.97/ha were achieved from group 1 wheats with a cost per tonne to produce of £52.97/t

• Group 2 wheats produced an average gross margin of £645.26/ha with a cost per tonne to produce of £53.10/t




0

150

300

450

600

Barle

y sp

ring

Barle

y w

inte

r

Bean

s sp

ring

Bean

s w

inte

r

Gra

ss

Lins

eed

sprin

g

Mai

ze

Oat

s sp

ring

Oat

s w

inte

r

Peas

Pota

toes

OSR

spr

ing

OSR

win

ter

Suga

r Bee

t

Triti

cale

Stub

ble

turn

ips

Whe

at s

prin

g

Whe

at w

inte

r

Num

ber o

f fie

lds

sow

n by

pre

cedi

ng c

rop


NUMBER OF FIELDS SOWN

HARVEST YEAR 2015

• In 34% of fields, the 2014/15 wheat crop was preceded by oilseed rape

• In 28% of fields, the 2014/15 wheat crop was preceded by wheat

• No more than 4% of fields carried a wheat crop preceded by any other crop


0

3

6

9

12

Barle

y sp

ring

Barle

y w

inte

r

Bean

s sp

ring

Bean

s w

inte

r

Gra

ss

Lins

eed

sprin

g

Mai

ze

Oat

s sp

ring

Oat

s w

inte

r

Peas

Pota

toes

OSR

spr

ing

OSR

win

ter

Suga

r Bee

t

Triti

cale

Stub

ble

turn

ips

Whe

at s

prin

g

Whe

at w

inte

r

YIELDS OF WINTER WHEAT

AS INFLUENCED BY PRECEDING CROP – HARVEST YEAR 2015

• Preceding crop had a strong influence on yields of the subsequent wheat crop

• Yields ranged from 10.81t/ha (highest), after winter barley to 8.37 t/ha (lowest) following spring barley

• Grass (10.58 t/ha), peas (10.47t/ha), sugar beet (10.54), winter oilseed rape (10.56 t/ha) as preceding crops also helped deliver higher average yields

• Stubble turnips as a preceding crop supported excellent yields (11.31 t/ha) but there were only 4 fields!


Adoption of different tillage regimes in wheat (% fields) since 2000. ProCam 4Cast .

% o

f fiel

ds

0.00%

22.50%

45.00%

67.50%

90.00%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Direct Drill

Min Till

Plough

WHAT DOES 4CAST TELL US

ABOUT CULTIVATION TECHNIQUES IN USE?

• In autumn 2014 the predominant cultivation technique for establishing winter wheat was min till (64%) although the number of fields established in this way were down on autumn 2013 (72.4%)

• The number of fields ploughed increased slightly to 34% from 26% in 2013

• The number of fields that were direct drilled remained static at 2% (1.76%) in 2013


9

9.5

10

10.5

11D

irect

Dril

led

Min

till

Plou

gh

Yiel

ds o

f WW

(t/h

a) fo

llow

ing

diffe

rent

cul

tivat

ions

WINTER WHEAT YIELDSDIFFERENT CULTIVATION/ESTABLISHMENT TECHNIQUES - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• In autumn 2014 the predominant cultivation technique for establishing winter wheat was min till (64%) which generated similar yields (10.17t/ha) to the average yield achieved following ploughing (10.08 t/ha)

• The average yield achieved by establishing wheat by direct drilled was 9.17t/ha, around 1t/ha lower than the other cultivation/establishment methods


Num

ber o

f fie

lds

sow

n m

onth

0

175

350

525

700

Aug-

14

Sep

t - 1

4

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Crops sown in March 2015 – predominantly SW

NO. OF FIELDS SOWNBY MONTH - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• 44% of fields were sown in September

• 46% of fields were sown in October

• Less than 9% 0f wheat was sown in November

• Wheat sown in January onwards was spring wheat


Yiel

d of

WW

(t/h

a) a

s in

fluen

ce b

y m

onth

of s

owin

g

Crops sown in March 2015 – predominantly SW

0

2.75

5.5

8.25

11

Aug-

14

Sep

t - 1

4

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

INFLUENCE OF MONTHHARVEST YEAR 2015

• Winter wheat yields were highest when crops were sown in September (10.32 t/ha)

• Winter wheat yields were lowest when sown in December (9.03 t/ha)

• Wheat, sown in Jan and Feb produced yields of 9.32t/ha and 9.38t/ha respectively

• Yield of spring wheat, sown in March, declined to 7.7t/ha


Yiel

d of

WW

(t/h

a) a

s in

fluen

ce b

y m

onth

of s

owin

g

August sowings (4 values) and spring wheat sowings in March (10 values) removed

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

Sep

t - 1

4

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

y = -0.403x + 10.76

R² = 0.9346

AVERAGE WINTER WHEAT YIELDS

AS INFLUENCED BY MONTH OF SOWING – WW ONLY

Aver

age

seed

rate

s by

mon

th o

f sow

ing

August sowing and 2015 sowing omitted (24)

0

60

120

180

240

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Ave

CHANGING SEED RATEWW WITH SOWING DATE - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• Seed rates remained relatively static for Sept (171 kg/ha), Oct (184 kg/ha) and Nov (184 kg/ha); seed rate increased to an average of 237 kg/ha in Dec

• The average seed rate applied was 194 kg/ha


Num

ber o

f fie

lds

by s

owin

g ra

te


0

125

250

375

500

85

100-

150

150-

175

175-

185

185-

200

200-

225

225-

275

335-

400

NO. OF FIELDS SOWNAT DIFFERENT SEED RATES - WW - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• There were two distinct bands of seed rate usage

• 32% of fields were sown at seed rates between 150 – 175 kg/ha

• 29% of fields were sown at seed rates between 185 – 200 kg/ha


Num

ber o

f fie

lds

with

firs

t or s

econ

d w

heat


0

225

450

675

900

WW

1

WW

2

NO. OF FIELDS SOWNTO FIRST OR SECOND WHEAT - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• 60% of fields were sown to a first wheat

• 40% of fields were sown to a second wheat


Aver

age

yiel

d (t/

ha) f

rom

fiel

ds w

ith fi

rst o

r sec

ond

whe

at

No third or continuous wheat recorded

9.3

9.58

9.85

10.13

10.4

WW

1

WW

2

AVERAGE YIELDFROM SOWING FIRST OR SECOND WHEAT. HARVEST YEAR 2015

• The average first wheat yield was 10.68 t/ha

• The average second wheat yield was 0.92t/ha lower at 9.46 t/ha


Yiel

d t/h

a

Variety (>100ha sown to the variety)

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

12.00

Gal

lant

KWS

Cro

ft

Cor

dial

e

Cla

ire

Hor

atio

KWS

Kiel

der

Sols

tice

Scou

t

JB D

iego

Evol

utio

n

KWS

Lili

Rela

y

Skyf

all

Visc

ount

Cru

soe

Leed

s

Reve

latio

n

Con

quer

or

KWS

Sant

iago

Pano

ram

a

YIELD T/HA>100 HA - 2015 HARVEST GROWN AS 1ST WHEAT

• Varieties, grown as 1st wheats (where there was more than 100 ha grown) were ranked by yield

• Average yields ranged from 11.67 t/ha (Panorama) to 9.20t/ha (Gallant)


Yiel

d t/h

a

Variety (>100ha sown to the variety)0.00

2.75

5.50

8.25

11.00

Sols

tice

Scou

t

Gal

lant

Cla

ire

Cor

dial

e

Pano

ram

a

Evol

utio

n

JB D

iego

Visc

ount

Gra

fton

KWS

Sant

iago

Leed

s

YIELD T/HA>100 HA - HARVEST 2015 GROWN AS 2ND WHEAT

• Varieties, grown as 2nd wheats (where there was more than 100 ha grown) were ranked by yield

• Average yields ranged from 10.81 t/ha (Leeds) to 7.94t/ha (Solstice)


Yiel

d t/h

a


0

3

6

9

12

Cla

ire

Cor

dial

e

Evol

utio

n

Gal

lant

JB D

iego

KWS

Sant

iago

Leed

s

Pano

ram

a

Scou

t

Sols

tice

Visc

ount

1st Wheat 2nd Wheat

VARIETY YIELD COMPARISONS

WHEN SOWN AS 1ST OR 2ND WHEAT - >100 HA SOWN - 2015

• The variety with high yield and the least variance in yield between a 1st wheat position and a 2nd wheat position was Leeds (11.2 t/ha vs 10.81 t/ha)

• Similar high yields with small differences between 1st and 2nd wheat positions were also documented for Evolution (10.5t/ha vs 9.7t/ha), JB Diego (10.17 vs 9.71 t/ha), KWS Santiago (11.41 vs 10.4 t/ha) and Viscount (11 t/ha vs 10.08 t/ha)


Yiel

d t/h

a


0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

Cla

ire

Cor

dial

e

Evol

utio

n

Gal

lant

JB D

iego

KWS

Sant

iago

Leed

s

Pano

ram

a

Scou

t

Sols

tice

Visc

ount

DIFFERENCE IN YIELD (T/HA)

1ST TO 2ND WHEAT 2015

• Panorama appears to be better suited to a 1st wheat position; a yield difference of 2.3t/ha was recorded for this variety between a 1st and 2nd position

• A similar observation was documented for Scout and Solstice with differences of 1.78 t/ha and 2.05 t/ha, respectively, between 1st and 2nd wheat positions


Nitr

ogen

app

lied

(kg/

ha) –

WW

- 20

15

210

220

230

240

250

Gro

up 1

Gro

up 2

Gro

up 3

Gro

up 4

1st W

heat

2nd

Whe

at

Ove

rall

Ave

NITROGEN APPLIED (KG/HA)

WW - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• The highest amount of N applied per ha was for Group 2 wheats (250 kg N/ha)

• An average of 233 kg N per ha was applied to Group 1 wheats

• An average of 234 Kg N per ha was applied to Group 3 wheats

• An average of 212 kg N per ha was applied to Group 4 wheats

• An average of 216 kg N and 231 kg N per ha were applied to 1st and 2nd wheats respectively

• The average amount of N applied to wheat was 222 kg per ha


Fung

icid

e sp

end

£/ha

Caution – few records for Dec sowing (12)

100

108

115

123

130

Gro

up 1

Gro

up 2

Gro

up 3

Gro

up 4

WW

1

WW

2

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ave

FUNGICIDE SPEND (£/HA) BY GROUP

1ST OR 2ND WHEAT POSITION AND MONTH OF SOWING - HARVEST 2015

• The average spend on wheat fungicide programmes in 2015 was £115 per hectare


Aver

age

spen

d on

her

bici

des

(£/h

a)

89

91

92

94

95

WW

1

WW

2

Ave

spen

d

AVERAGE SPEND ON HERBICIDES (£/HA)

IN FIRST AND SECOND WHEAT SITUATIONS - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• The average spend on herbicides was higher in 1st wheat situations (£95/ha) than in 2nd wheat situations (£90)

• The average spend on herbicides (grass and BLW) was £92/ha


Her

bici

de s

pend

(£/h

a) W

W b

ased

on

prev

ious

cro

p

Caution – limited data for some crops (eg stubble turnips)

0

28

55

83

110

WO

SR WW

SpBe

an

Wbe

an

Mai

ze

SpBa

rl

Wba

rl

Gra

ss

Woa

ts

Soat

s

Peas

Pots

Sbee

t

Sttu

rns

EFFECT OF PREVIOUS CROP

ON HERBICIDE SPEND (£/HA) - HARVEST YEAR 2015

• Previous crop appeared to have some influence on herbicide spend.

• The highest average spend occurred following peas (£106/ha)

• The lowest spend followed crops of maize (£68/ha)


THANK YOU

Documents

4Cast analysis – harvest year 2015 Winter Wheat · 2018-04-04 · analysis – harvest year 2015 Winter Wheat TUDOR DAWKINS TECHNICAL DIRECTOR. COMMENTARY: ... Revelation iscount